Your topics should be a latest news item or current event or policy debates related to macroeconomics. You should use several types of sources for your information. You might also present charts of supporting data and/or find a journal articles or website(s) that provide additional supporting information.

Researchers have also drawn links between higher rates of unemployment and major social problems to higher crimes rates and greater political unrest, as well as higher rates of depression, heart disease, and other illnesses among unemployed individuals as stated in Economics Principles, Problems, and Policies on page 518.  When inflation increases, it becomes troublesome for low-income families because it will cost more to purchase the goods they need to survive.  

According to page 518, “if the family’s income does not rise as fast as the price of the goods and services that it consumes, it won’t be able to purchase as much as it used to and its standard of living will fall” (Economies, 2018).

 According to the New York Times, “Stock market has begun a “correction” – financial jargon of at least 10 percent.”   The investors are concerned about the stick market and how far it will plunge.  The report also stated the following: “Markets tend to overshoot, up, and down, and they could certainly plunge much further” (Jeff Sommer, 2018).  Moreover, “The Fed has been tightening monetary policy while the federal government is loosening fiscal policy by cutting taxes, and then adding hundreds of billions in government spending in a last-minute budget deal on Friday.  Furthermore, the Trump administration has been pushing for lighter regulation of financial markets.   These shifts during a period of stress raise short-term risks for investors in stocks and bonds” (Jeff Sommer, 2018).

The scariest thing about the market right now is the shocking response of traders who had become accustomed to the unsustainably placid conditions that have been unceremoniously swept away (Jeff Sommer, 2018).

Despite the up-and-down swings of the stock market, it is not a declaration that the market is in deep trouble and will crash, because it will not.  One cannot assume where stocks are heading in the upcoming weeks but, based on history, they will eventually rise. “Eventually” is a word with a lot of wiggle room, however. Markets tend to overshoot, up and down, and they could certainly plunge much further (Jeff Sommer, 2018).

The timing is awkward. The Fed has been tightening monetary policy while the federal government is loosening fiscal policy by cutting taxes, and then adding hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending in a last-minute budget deal on Friday. Furthermore, the Trump administration has been pushing for lighter regulation of financial markets. These shifts during a period of stress raise short-term risks for investors in stocks and bonds (Jeff Sommer, 2018).

On Wednesday, William C. Dudley, president of the New York Fed, told the New York Times the following: “My outlook hasn’t changed just because the stock market is a little bit lower than it was a few days ago. If the stock market were to go down precipitously and stay down, then that would actually feed into the economic outlook.”

On February 8, the New York Times reported that the unemployment rate is already low, and the new tax cut may push economic growth even higher. Wall Street knows that if officials think inflation is poised to exceed its 2 percent target, they will raise interest rates to try to stop that from happening.

According to Yahoo Finance, on February 6, 2018, the tax cuts are still likely to boost profits, but markets are now factoring in some of the problems associated with tax cuts that Trump and his fellow Republicans never mentioned, and perhaps didn’t even recognize. For the economy, the main concern seems to be inflation, which could run a little deeper than investors have been expecting. Why might that happen? “Too much stimulus,” writes Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments. “The economy is in danger of over-heating, thanks to massive tax cuts, out-of-control government spending, synchronized global growth, and perhaps the most important factor: a U.S. labor market that’s exceptionally tight, with inevitable wage pressure coming this year.”

The tax cuts are pushing inflation expectations higher for a couple reasons. Bigger profits put more money into the economy, potentially pushing up spending, wages and asset prices. Taken together, that’s the inflationary surge, or “overheating,” many analysts worry about. There’s an optimal level of all these things (which nobody can ever pinpoint exactly), and then there are levels that are too high. The judgment of the markets right now is that these levels are exceeding too high, and the tax cuts are contributing to that.

Harris wrote in a recent note to clients: “This means ‘crowding out’ of private investment, offsetting the incentive of lower tax rates. For markets, it means faster Fed hikes, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar. And all of those things are bad news, relatively speaking, for stock prices” (Rick Newman, 2018).

            In conclusion, I believe the economy will not get better in the interim, but it will become better in the future.  However, no one should decide to sell or buy stock right now.   It’s better to wait and see where the economic is going.  In regard to the tax cut, it is disservice to the hard-working middle class Americans.  

 

 

Economies, M. B. (2018). Economics Principles, Problems, and Policies TWENTY-FIRST EDITION. Penn Plaza, New York: McGraw-HIll Education.

Jeff Sommer, s. (2018, February 9). Business/stock market. Retrieved from 2018 The New York Times Company: https://www.nytimes.com

Rick Newman, C. (2018, February 6). Retrieved from Yahoo: https://finance.yahoo.com/

 

I learned a lot from this article. Using credit cards has become so popular in in the US. People rely on credit cards, when their funds become low, more than ever, setting the new record of $1.023 trillion owed to credit cards, in November. Getting approved for a credit card, is so simple and takes less than 10 minutes. Yes, there are positives to using credit cards, like raising your credit and being able to use them when you don't have the cash to spend on what you need/want. You may think there’s no risk to using credit cards, but there are. One of the risks being the interest rates.

The interest rates already start off high as it is, but in 2018 they're expected to just keep rising. Some credit cards APR starts at at least 20%, if not higher. Making a simple $250 purchase close to $500 when you calculate the interest that you're stuck paying, on top of the responsibility of remembering for the next 10 months to make your minimum payment, at least.

Using credit cards has become so popular over the years, with people getting so in debt due to these little plastic cards. When you get a $1,000.00 credit limit, it becomes hard to control your spending. Thinking to yourself "it’s only $30, I can just put it on my credit card." Slowly you're adding more and more to your amount owed, and next thing you know your card is maxed out, and you're stuck paying the minimum payment for the next 3 - 4 years.

            I believe the author chose this topic and to write about it to help the US manage their credit cards and use them responsibly, because she may have got stuck paying more to the interest to the principal payment. With that, I believe it will help me with my research topic, because more people have credit cards than those who do not have credit cards. The problem with the economy is that seems to be charging interest on just about anything and everything, and the author wants to educate people in what precautions to take when getting a credit card and making purchases on that card. 

            I believe this article helps support my argument,  and is related in many ways. I have credit cards, and I have calculated how much I pay to my purchases, and how much I have, and will have to pay toward interest alone. The interest rate on one of my cards is 26.9% which means every month, I pay almost 27% of my current balance to just interest. If my balance is $1,000 that is $270 toward just interest! Do you know what I could use $270 for???

 

 

 

 

 

News article sources:

Pay Down Those Credit Cards, Before Rates Rise Further

By Ann Carrns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                            Works Cited

 

The economic implications of cyberattacks | GRI. (2017, September 28). Retrieved February 18, 2018, from 

If companies in the mobile wireless industry can increase their concentration, then their combined market power will increase. 

-          Explain how each article relates to your research topic and adds something new to what you learned about the topic.

-          These articles must be recent.

-          Include only credible sources relating to your Final Research Project topic.
Answer the question: “What are you interested in economics?” Hypothesis (economic prediction) is a special kind of prediction that forecasts how one economic variable will affect a second economic variable. 
The hypothesis can be written using the “If . . . then . . .” format. FORMAT: If the (independent economic variable) is [increased/decreased/etc.], then the (dependent economic variable) will [increase/ decrease /vary /etc.]. For example, the income of individual households and business profits are independent economic variables that affect overall business performance and economic growth. The price of a product (independent economic variable) will influence the demand for it (dependent economic variable). 

·         The process the student has used to explore this hypothesis. 

·         An explanation of the student’s finding resulting from the research study regarding the hypothesis, and an attempt to analyze and explain these findings in terms of assumptions.

·         A list of references used for the project.

Please review the following requirements carefully.

·         The essay must be 500-1200 words in length. 

·         The topic should be a latest news item or current event, or policy debates related to macroeconomics.

·         The document must be submitted in Microsoft Word format.

·         The essay must consist of at least five paragraphs, including an introduction and conclusion. 

·         All ideas from outside sources must be cited in APA Style.

·         You should use several types of sources for your information.

·         Additional supporting information such as charts of supporting data and/or find a journal articles or website(s), or videos, etc. might be presented. 

 

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

 

A trade war is a possible result of protectionism. It describes a situation in which countries retaliate against a country that imposes trade barriers such as import tariffs and fees. This could start a chain of “eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth” responses that increase global tensions.

If a trade war breaks out now it depends largely on China's reaction. So far no one has been known. But China has threatened to be tough in response to steel and aluminum tariffs in the past.

It is believed that US agricultural exports, such as soybeans, are particularly vulnerable. Other nations may also choose to buy Airbus planes instead of Boeing.

If China retaliates, it could focus on consumer electronics, which would harm Apple, or semiconductors, which would harm US chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Intel.

A global growth of 3% or less constitutes a recession, according to previous definitions used by the International Monetary Fund.

Nations are expected to grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% next year, according to updated perspectives. US growth It was reduced to 2.4% in 2019 and 2% in the following year.

The trade war between the United States and China and its impact on world manufacturing and the growth of trade are to blame for this bleak forecast, according to the OECD. Brexit also remains a big question mark, and the slowdown in China's giant economy presents its own set of challenges for the world. Giles, C. (2019, September 19).

Continuous commercial tensions are also affecting commercial investments and confidence, which only increases uncertainty. The slow business investment has created an investment gap that will have a long-term structural impact on growth, according to OECD chief economist Laurence Boone. This could mean slower growth that becomes the new normal. Horobin Bloomberg, W. (2019, September 20).

Mr. Trump's tariffs policy aims to encourage consumers to buy American by making imported goods more expensive. So far, the US has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn (£296bn) of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of US products

Washington delivered three rounds of tariffs last year, and a fourth one in September. The latest round targeted Chinese imports, from meat to musical instruments, with a 15% duty.

Beijing has hit back with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on US goods. Both sides have threatened to take more action with new tariffs and hikes to existing duties in the coming months.

On 1 October, the US plans to raise an existing 25% tariff on some Chinese products to 30%.

Washington then plans to deliver a wave of new tariffs on Chinese goods, ranging from footwear to telephones, on 15 December.

 

Trump escalates trade war with fresh tariff hikes. US delays some tariffs on Chinese imports

If this happens, effectively all Chinese goods imported to the US will be subject to tariffs.

 

China also plans to hit another 3,000 American products with tariffs by the end of the year.

For example: the founder of handbag and backpack maker Minkee Blue, which is based in Philadelphia but manufactures its products in China and then imports them to the US.

It is one of a huge range of companies - from shoemakers to chemical firms and tech suppliers - facing the impact of the bruising trade fight between the world's two largest economies.

 Ms. Mosee has seen import tariffs on her products more than double in the last few months.

Top trade negotiators from the US and China met in Shanghai this week for their first face-to-face talks since May. But the meetings were brief, and no swift resolution is yet in sight.

Both sides have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods, leading to higher costs for business and consumers.

Ms. Mosee says import duties on her bags were "already expensive" at 17.6% before the US-China trade war started - now the rate is 42.6%. To get her products into the US, that tariff must be paid at the border. Ms. Mosee says she's had to "scramble around to get the additional funds" to pay the higher duties, including looking for loans.

 Ms. Mosee has raised the price of some bags - which are designed with compartments to carry lots of items like shoes and laptops - by roughly 25% to offset the impact of the higher import tariff. "I'm fighting this battle… and I'm adjusting, but it costs jobs, it costs building the business, it costs profits."

She doesn't oppose the overall aim of pressing China to reform its trading practices but isn't happy with the current strategy.

"I feel that the approach is hurting Americans way more than helping the problem."

 

References:

OECD appoints Laurence Boone as new Chief Economist. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/economy/oecd-appoints-laurence-boone-as-new-chief-economist.htm

HorobinBloomberg, W. (2019, September 20). Global economy seen sliding toward weakest growth in decade. Retrieved from https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20190922/global-economy-seen-sliding-toward-weakest-growth-in-decade

Giles, C. (2019, September 19). OECD warns trade tensions could create low-growth trap. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/5b305f88-da2b-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

Trade war: US hits China with new wave of tariffs. (2019, September 2). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49505781

 

 

2.   President Trump ordered US firms to ditch China, but many already have and more are on the way

 

 

3.   Trump says trade talks still planned for September after China tariffs go into effect

 

 

What Is a Trade War?

 

A trade war happens when one country retaliates against another by raising import tariffs or placing other restrictions on the opposing country's imports. A tariff is a tax or duty imposed on the goods imported into a nation. In a global economy, a trade war can become damaging to the consumers and businesses of both nations, and the contagion can grow to affect many aspects of both economies. “Trade wars are a side effect of protectionism, which are government actions and policies that restrict international trade. A country will generally undertake protectionist actions with the intent of shielding domestic businesses and jobs from foreign competition. Protectionism is also a method used to balance trade deficits. A trade deficit happens when a country's imports exceed the amounts of its exports.” Chen, J. (2019, August 21)

 

As a part of his agenda to put the US first, President Donald Trump has tightened the nuts of his trade war with China but, starting next month, that escalation will increase the prices of products such as i Phones, footwear, clothing, toys and appliances, experts warned today.

 

Trump announced Thursday that he will impose 10% tariffs on imports from China starting next September 1, with the idea of ​​forcing the Beijing government to sign a more advantageous trade agreement for the US.

 

A strategy game - Who wins with tariffs? who are the victims of tariff wars?

 

Companies insist that the tariff escalation does not benefit the US economically.

They also remember that the tariff is a tax paid directly by importing companies, not China, as Trump argues. At the same time, they point out that uncertainty fuels market volatility and threatens to derail the longest economic expansion in modern history.

 

President Donald Trump sought to win fairer trade policies for the US as he ignited a trade war with China last year, but the effects of his tariffs have increasingly fallen on Americans, rippling through supply chains and putting pressure on prices across the country.

 

I am interested in knowing and learning more about how trade wars work, and how the tariff affects or benefits to our country, but at the same time, I am interested in knowing the impact that the trade war how this affect us as a customers. 

 

On the one hand, the government ensures that the tariff war does not affect us as consumers, but since the beginning of this commercial war, I have realized that the prices of the basic basket still increased by around 20% more.

For example, a can of spaghetti sauce cost me before the tariff war .99 cents, now the same can with less content costs me $ 1.39.

 

I have noticed, that products that come from China have dramatically increased the price.  Sometimes, is impossible to buy these products, but what worries me most, is the fact that the United States does not produce enough of products, and sometimes the products that we been imported from China definitely, those products are not produced in this country; or if they are produced in USA, they are at a very high cost. In my own opinion, I believe that 90% of the products sold in the United States are imported not only from China, but from different countries.

 

References:

 

Chen, J. (2019, August 21). What is a Trade War? Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-war.asp

 

He, L. (2019, September 2). China's factories had a surprisingly good month. But there's trouble ahead. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/02/economy/china-economy-pmi-caixin/index.html

 

JRReed. (2019, September 1). President Trump ordered US firms to ditch China, but many already have and more are on the way. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/trump-ordered-us-firms-to-ditch-china-but-many-already-have.html

 

 

My topic for this project name is America’s factories just suffered their worst month in a decade. 

What are you interested in macroeconomics?

At all times we must make decisions that involve resource management, with it consciously or not, we mark a lifestyle. Moreover, our lives are influenced by the decisions on the administration of resources that others make.

The different governmental instances, businessmen, in our work, the banks with which we own products, all make economic decisions and somehow circumscribe our daily actions.

From the bills you pay, the use you give to your credit card, to the house, the car or the smart device you buy, the economy is all around you.

When you do not have a basic understanding of economic concepts, you are subject to financial difficulties, which over time can lead to the inability to obtain a loan or even file for bankruptcy.

1.What can you learn from the source? What I am learning from this source of information is that the decisions taken by President Donald Trump to create a large America not only affects the economy of this country but also affects each one of us as citizens, for example we buy anything Let it come from China and what we did before the war of tariffs 10 dollars now that same product costs us more than fifteen dollars. and sometimes the products are in short supply and the companies that produce products in this country are affected because most of the supplements come from other countries. for example, the car industry has been affected by the shortage of metals.

In the surest sign yet that the trade war is hurting the American economy, manufacturing activity contracted for the second month in a row in September, falling to a level not seen in 10 years.

The Institute of Supply Management's closely watched manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in September, its lowest level since June 2009 and worse than what economists had expected.

The index measures month-to-month changes in the industry. A reading above 50 denotes growth in the sector.

"Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee.

Making matters worse, the contraction in September was steeper than it was in August, when the sector contracted for the first time in three years because of higher prices that factories pay for materials and weaker global demand.

And the slowdown isn't over.

Companies that make machinery cited softening demand and reduced backlogs, but food, beverage and tobacco producers said Chinese tariffs are hurting their businesses, the ISM survey showed.

The overall index number was bad, but more worrisome is the report's drop-in factory orders of exports, said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank. "There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real," he wrote in a note to clients.

As recession worries resurface, investors wonder whether the Federal Reserve could turn more dovish as the year comes to an end.

The central banks cut interest rates twice this year, in July and again last month, to boost the economy. But at its September meeting the average forecast from policy committee members didn't account for further cuts this year. The softening manufacturing data could change this.

Market expectations for a quarter percentage points interest rate cut in October jumped to 65%, compared to under 40% Monday in the wake of the ISM data, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.

The index's sharp decline also might be related to the General Motors strike, now in its third week, suggested Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References:

How U.S. tariff increases will affect steel, aluminum, copper, other metals. (2019, May 20). Retrieved from https://www.snipsmag.com/articles/93810-how-us-tariff-increases-will-affect-steel-aluminum-copper-other-metals.

 

Vaswani, K. (2019, July 30). Can fresh US-China talks end the trade war? Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49148685.

 

Ip, G. (2019, October 2). For a Change, It's the World That Is Pulling Down the U.S. Economy. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-a-change-its-the-world-that-is-pulling-down-the-u-s-economy-11570021741.

 

Langley, K., & Bernhard, M. (2019, October 1). Dow Industrials Drop as Manufacturing Data Disappoints. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-rise-as-investors-take-global-economys-pulse-11569917995?mod=cx_picks&cx_navSource=cx_picks&cx_tag=contextual&cx_artPos=5#cxrecs_s.

 

Who has more resistance in the trade dispute between the United States and China? Since this Friday, May 10, the new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Chinese products - which rose from 10 to 25 percent, equivalent to 178 billion euros - entered into force, that question torments all the players in the international market. But beyond who yields in the end, the consequences for world trade and economy are increasingly evident. In Germany, for example, the factories of machinery and the automotive sector complain bitterly of the fall in sales.

 

A trade war between two countries is that both raise import tariffs, so that they are less attractive to their citizens and reduce their purchases from the affected countries.

 

In the case of the US and China, both countries have raised tariffs on imports of products from the opposite country. Therefore, any Chinese product that is affected by higher tariffs will be more expensive in the US and vice versa.

 

Now, how does this affect American technology companies, so omnipresent in our lives? Basically, if the services they provide or goods that they sell in China are subject to higher tariffs, they will sell less in this country and this will affect their accounts.

In any war, there is foul play. And in this case the US is using other tools to harm the enemy. In the recent case of Huawei, put the Chinese company in the Entity List, which prevents it from doing business with American companies (for supposed reasons of national security).

 

China could use its "red button", sell American debt. The Central Bank of China has large reserves in US debt. And I could sell it so that the US government costs more to finance. It would be an option that would be expensive (selling something in a massive way to hurt means that this good is worth less, and therefore China would be squandering a good part of its savings due to the trade surplus) but it would certainly destabilize the US economy.

 

On the positive side, there may be local companies that can take advantage of this opportunity to better position themselves in the international market. For example, companies from different countries that manage to export more (either in China or in the US) because their competitors are now more expensive for a simple tax reason. This would result in an increase in GDP (more sales, more dividends and more employment).

 

References:

 

A quick guide to the US-China trade war. (2019, September 2). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310.

 

Rappeport, A. (2019, August 1). China Reacts to Trade Tariffs and Hong Kong Protests by Blaming U.S. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/us/politics/trump-tariffs-china.html.

 

Xiong, Y., & Cavaliere, V. (2019, August 23). China and the US ratchet up trade war in a day of retaliation. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariffs-trade-war/index.html.