https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021 Selections and opinions. en-us 2019-03-11 12:22:54 UTC 2025-12-19 21:31:39 UTC hello@padlet.com mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919731986 -1
If taking SkyBet's money back offer here, it's a no brainer to oppose Appreciate it who has very solid claims, but he failed to hold on up the hill last year in the bumper and I can envisage a similar scenario on the expected decent ground. Ballyadam at around 7/1 is my selection, in that he is one who should improve for better ground having been well beaten by the favourite at the Dublin Racing Festival and when Gordon Elliot's string were struggling at Christmas. The smooth travelling Royal Bond winner got to within a length of Appreciate It round the home turn last time out and a poor jump at the last ended any chance of him keeping that distance at the line. An improved jumping display is required but he certainly has the class to take this.]]> 2020-11-13 11:08:01 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919731986 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919745427 +1.5
Looks to be a cracking race between the top 3 in the market. Bob Olinger would be my tentative selection based upon the buzz around him in Ireland and his claims were endorsed by the performance of Blue Lord in the supreme who he kicked out of the way in the Grade 1 hurdle at Naas. A good race to sit back and watch without a bet as this could be 3 gold cup horses in the making.]]> 2020-11-13 11:17:20 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919745427 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919757071 +0.5
Monkfish is a tool and wins on the bridle. Enjoy the show.]]> 2020-11-13 11:25:00 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919757071 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919763818 -4
Despite carrying top weight, Thomas Darby is rated only 4lbs higher than when 2nd to Klassical Dream in the 2019 Supreme and the way he travelled into the Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton in January showed that he has the class to defy this mark. He should appreciate the better ground and a strongly run race which he is sure to get here and he represents excellent each way value at 20/1. I also have a tracker horse in the Emma Lavelle trained Shang Tang who shaped like the winner after 2.5 miles in a grade 2 at Doncaster in January and has since  cantered home at Fakenhem when back to this favoured intermediate trip. The 3rd in that race has franked the form when bolting up at Sandown on saturday, so a 5lb rise could still have him ahead of the handicapper.]]> 2020-11-13 11:29:48 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919763818 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919785938 It's pointless trying to find anything to beat Envoi Allen, probably the best horse in training at the moment.]]> 2020-11-13 11:44:39 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919785938 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919791457 +5
I couldn't believe the price of Streets of Doyen when I backed him at 25/1 last week. An ideal prep run over an inadequate 2 miles at Navan last time out should have him spot on for this gruelling test. He has course and distance form, will relish the predicted good ground and has the experience required for this race. Moreover, the market principles in this are rated in the low 140's, SOD's Giving a stone and a 5 length beating to subsequent grade 1 winner Flooring porter who is now rated 160, should give him a rating somewhere around 140 as well and he is almost 5 times the price of Stattler and Fakiera. Hugely overpriced and would be at least half that if trained by one of the big names.]]> 2020-11-13 11:48:32 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/919791457 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293504706 -2
The heavyweight clash between Shishkin and Energumene has not materialised, so this looks to be a penalty kick for Nicky Henderson's superstar novice chaser I backed Captain Guinness at 16/1 in October and after a mixed campaign he remains the same price and I would say he could pick up the pieces into 2nd if ridden to place.]]> 2021-03-10 15:38:05 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293504706 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293523530 -1
This race is a bit of a puzzle and I couldn't find any value in a race I have historically done well in. I've backed Aye Right all season and although I think he's a touch short given his lofty handicap mark, he's still my selection here. He's the best horse in the races having nearly landed 2 of the biggest 3mile handicap chases in the UK this season, will jump like a bunny in front and hopefully he doesn't have too much weight and can hold on up the hill.]]> 2021-03-10 15:41:16 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293523530 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293526101 +2
Another cracking contest, which may appear to be between the 2 superstar mares, yet I am keen to oppose them both with 2 value selections. Abacadabras has been my idea of this year's champion hurdle winner since his excellent 2nd to Shishkin in last year's supreme and once his poor run at Christmas was attributed to the aforementioned Elliott yard form at that meeting, I have still not changed that opinion that he will go close here, but the bookies have so he is an excellent value price at 14/1. Better ground and strong pace will suit his strong travelling style and if he can take a lead into the last hurdle it should see him go better than last year's opener. Aspire Tower is also hugely overpriced at 20/1 as an each way alternative. He has already lowered the colours of Abacadabras at Down Royal earlier in the season and an excellent 2nd to Sharjah in the Christmas Hurdle, demonstrated the further improvement that you would expect from a 5 year old. Another step forwards here, including an improved jumping display and he can certainly hit the frame.]]> 2021-03-10 15:41:43 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293526101 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293635037 -2
Concertista is more than likely to go in here, but is not of interest at 6/4. Last year's Martin Pipe Hurdle winner Indefatigable  is the each way selection here. With course and distance form in the bank, which included giving weight and beatings to Happygolucky, The Bosses Oscar and Escaria Ten, all of which are prominent in the betting for their respective races this year, so it represents very strong form.]]> 2021-03-10 16:00:02 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293635037 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293712872 -1
I'm very keen on Busselton for Joseph O'Brien in this and backed him at 9/1 earlier in the month. The top 3 in the betting for the Triumph are part of a particularly strong crop of juveniles and Busselton has chased home the 2 Elliot trained Irish of those in Zanyhir and Quilixios at each of the Leopardstown festivals. This represents stronger form than any of the British contenders and his mark of 135 is eye catching on a direct line through his 3.5 length 2nd to the 145 rated Zanyhir. ]]> 2021-03-10 16:13:09 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1293712872 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1297764515 +3.5
I can't see past Galvin  here, despite trying to find a way to get him beat. I'm very disappointed that Latest Exhibition hasn't gone for this as I backed him at 12/1, yet he would've gone off favourite if he lined up. Galvin fits all of the trends of the previous 10 winners which I analysed:
-Average of over 6.5 chase starts
-Run in a Graded chase
-Course form
-Stepping up to this distance for the 1st time
Another who actually follows these trends is MacGiloney who has very little chance on form but is worth a tiny each way stake at 80/1.]]> 2021-03-11 13:07:38 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1297764515 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298247619 -2
Sceau Royal hasn't finished outside of the first 2 with good in the going description in the last 4 seasons and he has proved to be as good as ever this term with 3 wins and 2 creditable placed efforts, so he is advised for an each way bet or forecast with Chacun pour Soi looking the likely winner at odds on.]]> 2021-03-11 14:37:11 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298247619 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298297512 -1
Balko des Flos ran a good race in the grade 1 Savills chase at Leopardstown and providing he takes to this new cross country challenge, a similar level of form could mean he has too much class for many of these. Although Easysland looks to be the one to beat again, so a forecast or without the fav bet might be the play here.]]> 2021-03-11 14:45:22 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298297512 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298298471 -2
2019 Arkle 2nd Us and Them is a horse i've followed for a number of seasons now and after carrying out some trends analysis, he fits the bill for this competitive contest. 7 of the last 10 winners had previous run in a festival handicap and 5 of those ran in a previous renewal of this race. He was 3rd in this last year and runs off a 1lb lower here, so should have a great each way chance at 16/1.]]> 2021-03-11 14:45:32 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298298471 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298300582 No real opinion on this race. Kilcruit  looked like the 2nd coming of Sprinter Sacre at the Dublin racing festival when cantering home, so he will probably take this at a short price.]]> 2021-03-11 14:45:54 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298300582 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298303206 +40
I backed Mrs Milner at 33/1 earlier in the month and she's almost a single figure price so she may not appeal at the current price. She was  touched off by a neck over course and distance when receiving 15lbs from the now rated 153 On the Blind side. That would indicate her mark of 134 is favourable and she shaped well when hitting the front up the straight when 4th in a qualifier at Leopardstown. Anything Will Do also has an each way chance based on his qualifying run 2.5 lengths behind Mrs Milner, of which he now has a 1lb pull. He has already experienced a festival handicap too having ran down the field in last year's Martin Pipe as a novice.]]> 2021-03-11 14:46:21 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298303206 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298306441 -3
I have 1 heart and 1 head selection for this race, as I cannot leave my old pal Samcro unbacked at 16/1 each way, yet I think Min is the likely winner at around 6/1.  Samcro has won at 2 festivals over this distance and if he retains any of the ability he showed to win the Marsh Chase last year he already has the beating of Melon and Mister Fisher who are half the price. Min looks to have a cracking chance to retain his crown as he looked as good as ever when bolting up in the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase at Punchestown in December and then his pulled up effort at the Dublin Racing festival was too bad to be true and probably gives his price some much needed juice. He should jump off handily and on his best form is the fastest of all his rivals in this contest, so he will take some stopping if he gets into the same jumping rhythm as he found in last year's renewal.]]> 2021-03-11 14:46:55 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298306441 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298316258 -1
Sire Du Berlais  is the horse i've been keen on for this all season long. Yet again, this is one that disappointed at Christmas when Elliot's yard was struggling and his effort before that over a trip too short showed he has certainly not regressed since his consecutive wins in the Pertemps over course and distance, including giving weight to subsequent grade 1 winner the Storyteller. But it's the times of those 2 runs that give me the most confidence about his chances here. In 2019 he carried only a 1lb less than Paisley park did an hour later in his stayers hurdle win in an identical time! He then ran 3 seconds quicker, carrying 2lbs more than Lisnagar Oscar did in their respective wins in the same races last year. Finally, he carried 7lbs more than those in last year's Albert Bartlett and albeit Monkfish finished 2 seconds quicker, Thyme Hill and Fury Road were 2nd and 4th in that race, so on that basis he could appear to have their measure too.]]> 2021-03-11 14:48:32 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298316258 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298317409 -1
I have followed Farclas all season, since his promising reappearance at Punchestown through both his placed efforts in 2 of Ireland's hottest handicap chases at Leopardstown, in which he travelled like one of the best horses in the race on both occasions. His latest effort was scuppered by a mistake 2 out after which he used his finishing effort to lead between the last 2 fences, only to empty up the straight. I believe he would've won that day with a good jump at the last and hence he is still, in my opinion, extremely well handicapped off a mark of 146 here, which incidentally is also his hurdles mark and i'm adamant he's a better chaser than hurdler. As you can tell, i'm convinced that today is the day for him, with trip, ground, pace and trends of 2nd season novices having an excellent record and 8 of the last 10 winners ridden prominently, of which he generally tends to be, all in his favour.]]> 2021-03-11 14:48:44 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298317409 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298359910 -1
Glens of Antrim ran a stormer behind Albert Bartlett favourite Stattler at Leopardstown at Christmas, proving she has a huge engine. She will need to improve on her jumping if she is to take this, but at the 14/1 I took on her, i'm willing to find out if she will.]]> 2021-03-11 14:55:42 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298359910 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298366234 +2
I've done a lot of trends analysis on previous winners of this race and 3 fit the profile of:
-8 of last 10 7 or 8
-9 of 10 ran in previous festival handicap or a novice
-6 of 10 were ridden prominently The 3 are Mount Ida, Milanford and Didero Vallis who is my main each way selection at around 40/1. He ran a cracker to be 5th in the 2019 plate at the festival, in which he had every chance round the home turn before being outpaced up the straight and then keeping on to hold onto 5th place. That would indicate that this step up in trip would suit and he gets in here off the same mark as that race. He also comes in off the back of a staying on success in a handicap chase at Catterick, which he probably needed to get in at the bottom of the weights. I may back the other 2 depending on prices on the day.]]> 2021-03-11 14:56:43 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1298366234 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1305685890 +9
For once, I don't really see the value in this year's renewal and I think that Al Boum Photo will take all the beating here. Minella Indo has been my idea of the winner for the first half of the season, but his jumping seems to have deteriorated. Yet with Allaho bolting up the Ryanair yesterday and the ground drying all the time, he now has a tremendous chance I think. He has Allaho covered 3 times now twice over this course and distance, I really think Blackmore has made her first mistake of the week in picking A Plus Tard, but there is no better replacement than Jack Kennedy. He would be my selection at around 10/1 or even to chase home the dual winner, possibly in a reverse forecast bet.]]> 2021-03-13 17:32:23 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1305685890 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1320393100 +1.5
I'm a huge fan of Zanahiyr and I think he lands his short odds. However the one to make the frame at the prices could be the Willie Mullins trained french import Haut En Couleurs. Connections would've fancied French Aseel to go well in this so it's a mark of their faith in this UK debutant to run a big race.]]> 2021-03-17 13:00:10 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1320393100 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1320409152 -4
I backed my 2 selections in this in 2 different races for the week before declarations and i'm still very keen on the chances of both in this contest. You Raised Me Up looked set for the Coral Cup but Martin Brassil has reverted him back to this shorter trip, at which his best performances have come. He ran a belter in last year's ladbrokes hurdle at Leopardstown off a mark of 125 and he looked to have improved from that run when beating subsequent winner Run For Oscar at Listowel in September. I backed Gowel Road with place intentions in what appeared to be a weak supreme but he shows up here off a mark of 137 which is more than workable, given the way in which he dispatched smart prospect Good Ball at Newbury last time out. First time cheekpieces should sharpen his jumping, of which the standard makes his win at Newbury all the more impressive. Ciel Du Neige also should not go unbacked at 20/1 with the best run of his career coming on good ground in last year's betfair hurdle at Newbury.]]> 2021-03-17 13:03:33 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1320409152 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1322816372 +3
I have very little grip on the form of hunter chases, so i've just gone with a simple approach of looking at ratings in relation to price. Latenightpass has achieved a hight RPR of 145 and an OR of 137 at around 18/1. The favourite Billaway has ratings of 147 and 141, so it's not inconceivable that the 8 year old can close that small gap and make the frame.]]> 2021-03-17 21:17:33 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1322816372 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1325290528 -2
I backed Eli May at a big price in her excellent 2nd in the rearranged Kinloch Brae chase at Thurles and foolishly forgot to back her for this race for which she was around 12/1 at that time, so i'm a little disappointed at that missed opportunity. She's the likely winner of the race but plenty short enough now so i'll chase Really Super  who is owned by a syndicate including a mate of mine, so a sentimental each way bet on her and she should out run her price on this much favoured better ground.]]> 2021-03-18 13:09:47 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1325290528 mark_fergusonsm https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1325308288 -2
Fire Attack has been running in graded and listed contest all season and has not been disgraced behind some classy sorts. His 2 length 2nd behind absent supreme fancy Thedevilscoachman receiving 6lbs. Better ground and a stronger pace should help him settle as he has been rather keen in most of his starts this season. The run of Fakiera in the Albert Bartlett earlier in the day should give a better idea of his chances as he only finished half a length behind him in his first start of the season, in which another Albert Bartlett runner Farouk D'alene was back in 4th.]]> 2021-03-18 13:13:08 UTC https://padlet.com/mark_fergusonsm/cheltenham2021/wish/1325308288