https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82 Characteristics and specifications of forecast scenarios en-us 2022-05-30 19:30:05 UTC 2022-05-30 20:15:23 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-uploads.storage.googleapis.com/1717539846/6875fc423fe9247e442aec4571fc6f96/quiromancia.png magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205013738 Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather similar to simulations of some possible futures. Scenarios were first used by corporations. Scenarios have since been used by the financial services industry, banks and insurance companies, given their value as a tool for analyzing and understanding key competitive decisions. Both public and private sector organizations have implemented scenarios for a wide array of functions.]]> 2022-05-30 19:46:10 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205013738 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205015141 There are many different possible ways of developing scenarios. We suggest here one possible approach that we could define as a ‘walk through the process’ divided in six steps with two important elements. One element is the ‘decision-focus’ of the scenarios, which means that the process begins and ends not with vision of the future, but with agreement on the strategic decision which the scenarios should be designed to illuminate. The second key element is the ‘scenario logic’ which constitutes the core of the process.]]> 2022-05-30 19:48:01 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205015141 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205018787 Almost all industries use scenarios to develop their business strategies. At national, regional and local level scenarios can be used to improve planning capacity, to enrich strategic public policy decisions and to guide major capital investments. For example, the development of scenarios allows new insights into the opportunities and risks involved in making decisions about public transport that would have major consequences for the development of a region over the next few decades. To be effective, scenarios must be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the future.]]> 2022-05-30 19:52:25 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205018787 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205019813 One suggestion is to use an impact/ uncertainty matrix with a simple ‘High-Medium-Low’ scoring system. The aim is to identify the two or three factors or trends that are the most important and the most uncertain. As outcome of this sorting, it is then possible to focus the attention and the selection of the scenario logics in the next step. High importance/ low-uncertainties forces.]]> 2022-05-30 19:53:54 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205019813 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205020919 Determining the axes of the scenarios is the crucial step in the entire scenario-generating process. The main goal is to end-up with just few scenarios that whose difference make a difference for the decision-maker. If the scenarios have to be used as useful learning tools the lessons they teach must be based on issues basic to the sources of the focal decision. Basically, the scenario logics can be seen as organising dimension around which the scenarios are structured.]]> 2022-05-30 19:55:37 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205020919 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205028274 A narrow focus will prevent the scenarios from drifting into broad generalizations about the future of society or the global economy. When determining the focal issue it is important to consider the appropriate time-horizon for the scenarios, because it will affect the range of issues to be considered within the scenario development process. It is important when deciding on the focal issue, to deal explicitly with the range of uncertainties that might characterize the long-term future.]]> 2022-05-30 20:06:02 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205028274 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205029727 The next step is to identify the key drivers that will influence the listed key forces at macro and micro-level. Micro-environmental key forces are those that have a direct influence on the issue you are dealing with. Macro-environmental key forces are broader and possibly are global. They relate to social, technological, political, economic and environmental forces that might have an impact on the issue considered. Research may cover markets, understanding new technology, political factors, economic forces, and so on. The list of the driving factors should include Social, Technological, Economic , Environmental, Political and Values .

]]> 2022-05-30 20:07:59 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205029727 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205031548 The next step consists in the ranking of the driving forces on the basis of two criteria: the degree of ‘importance’ of the focal issue identified in Step 1, and the degree of ‘uncertainty’ surrounding those factors and trends.
One suggestion is to use an impact/ uncertainty matrix with a simple ‘High-Medium-Low’ scoring system. The aim is to identify the two or three factors or trends that are the most important and the most uncertain.]]> 2022-05-30 20:10:57 UTC https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205031548 magicdave18 https://padlet.com/magicdave18/xczsvl46c3oj0m82/wish/2205033181 The results of the ranking exercise of previous step help identifying the axes along which the scenarios can be constructed, therefore find out the scenario logics. Determining the axes of the scenarios is the crucial step in the entire scenario-generating process. The main goal is to end-up with just few scenarios that whose difference make a difference for the decision-maker. If the scenarios have to be used as useful learning tools the lessons they teach must be based on issues basic to the sources of the focal decision. Basically, the scenario logics can be seen as organizing dimension around which the scenarios are structured.

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