https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1 SINGAPORE en-us 2019-11-17 08:07:04 UTC 2024-08-20 02:53:40 UTC hello@padlet.com s10196499 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412313709 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/imf-slashes-growth-forecasts-for-singapore-to-05-in-2019-and-1-next-year-big-downgrade-for
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-cuts-full-year-gdp-growth-forecast-to-0-to-1-q2-growth-falls-to-decade
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/what-is-fiscal-policy/

CURRENT STATUS:
Point:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has brought down the gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for Singapore for 2019 and 2020 from its previous estimates in April 2019. 

Evidence:
" In its latest Regional Economic Outlook released on Wednesday (Oct 23), the IMF projects Singapore's growth for 2019 to be 0.5 per cent, sharply down from the 2.3 per cent it had forecast in its World Economic Outlook in April. The Singapore Government expects growth to come in between 0 and 1 per cent this year. Some private economists predict the number will be at the lower end of that range. " 

Explanation:
This is due to Singapore being hit hard by the Sino-U.S. trade war, that has negatively impacted the world supply chains in a blow to business investment and corporate profits. The US-China trade war has also impacted the manufacturing sector in Singapore. This is also because Singapore is often seen as a trendsetter for global growth. 

SOLUTIONS/MEASURES:
Fiscal Policy:
- Furthermore, OCBC Bank's head of treasury research and strategy Selena Ling said: "A fiscal policy response is likely forthcoming, possibly in the form of targeted help for businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and workers, given that the Budget 2020 is only around six months away."
- Fiscal policy is when the government increase or decrease tax levels and public spending. 


EXPECTATIONS:
- The minister for Trade and Industry, Mr Chan Chun Sing has spoken. "The government will continue to monitor the situation closely because every economic cycle is different and we must apply the right measures in order to effectively support our businesses and workers," he said on Facebook.
- Singapore's economy will improve if the "Phase One" trade deal between US and China, scheduled on Jan 15, 2020 runs smooth.
- Mr Seah said that it is important for the authorities to step up communications with companies at this point to help mitigate the risk of mass retrenchments. 
- He added that they could also consider increasing the quantum of support for existing programmes such as the Professional Conversion Programmes which aim to help workers move into new sectors.]]> 2019-11-17 08:23:15 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412313709 s10196499 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412314689 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/unemployment-rate-q3-2019-mom-12030352

CURRENT STATUS:
Point: 
The overall unemployment rate has increased slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2019. 

Evidence:
" The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate rose slightly in September from 2.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent, as well as among residents from 3.1 per cent in the previous quarter to 3.2 per cent in the July to September quarter. " 

Explanation:
The decline is mostly attributed to the decrease in work permit holders in the construction and marine shipyard sectors. Another reason is also due to the declining birth rates and the aging population. This would naturally mean that there would be lesser young and skilled workers in the workforce. The declining birth rates and the aging population would mean that there would generally be a lesser amount of employable people and there would be an increase in the amount of people that would be considered as unemployable, perhaps due to old age or lowly skilled. This can be seen from Singapore's labour force participation rate of 68%, and an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of June 2019. Hence, this would lead to lower employment rates. 

SOLUTIONS:
- Singapore does not implement any unemployment benefits system. 
- Government considers the best way to assist individuals who are retrenched or unemployed is to help them seek re-employment instead of handing out financial support as some people might make use to these benefits. 
- Assistance provided by the government departments or non-government agencies is mainly in the form of job training, course fee subsidisation, counselling and job data bank services.]]> 2019-11-17 08:34:20 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412314689 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412545177 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/core-inflation-in-singapore-eases-to-07-in-september

Point/Current Status:
- Core inflation in September eased to 0.7%, the lowest since March 2016 when it fell to 0.6%  which can be seen from the graph, the lowest in recent years.
- September's core inflation reading was slightly down from August's 0.8 percent which came on the back of lower services inflation and a larger fall in the cost of electricity and gas, even as the cost of retail goods fell by a smaller amount.


Evidence:
- September's core inflation reading was slightly lower than August's 0.8% due to lower services inflation and a larger decrease in the cost of electricity and gas and even the cost of retail goods fell by a small amount.


Explanation:
Core inflation does not include the cost of accommodation and private road transport that are affected by government policy rather than counted in on Singaporeans' daily life. MAS slightly lowered the Singdollar appreciation rate and narrowed down its inflation forecasts after noticing that the core inflation came in lower than expected in recent months.

CPI Basket:
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/publications/economy/cpinov19.pdf
According to the MAS Core inflation measure found, it can be seen that core inflation was at 1.5% in 2017 which then  increased to 1.7% in 2018 and dropped quite a lot to 1.1% in 2019, the lowest in the 3 years.

SOLUTIONS/EXPECTATIONS:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapores-headline-inflation-edges-up-in-may-core-inflation-holds-steady
- ANZ head of Asia research Mr Khoon Goh sees that MAS will stay put, but indicates that  it could tilt towards an easing if downside risks to Singapore's export and growth outlook worsen.
- Mr Goh said that the extent of the downside growth risks would hinge on the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and President Xi at this week’s G-20 Osaka summit.
- OCBC economist Selena Ling also expects dampened global growth prospects and US-China trade uncertainties to "keep even any potential hint of hawkish intentions under a lid for the interim".
- Barclays economist Brian Tan forecast that core inflation to average 1.5 per cent for 2019, sees room for the MAS to ease monetary policy at its next half-yearly meeting and that with the economic growth outlook set to further darken in 2019, their base case is for the MAS to reduce the slope of its official S$NEER (Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate) policy band by 50 basis points to an estimated 0.5 per cent in October



]]> 2019-11-18 07:20:19 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/412545177 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428256459 https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/population-and-population-structure/visualising-data/population-trends
Statistics for unemployment rate and labour force participation rate: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/singapore/labour-force-participation-rate

]]> 2020-01-07 06:53:15 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428256459 s10196499 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428258365 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/us-china-singapore-trade-war-impact-businesses-growth-11820864
https://www.psd.gov.sg/challenge/ideas/deep-dive/how-us-china-trade-relations-affect-singapore

CURRENT STATUS:
Point:
Singapore external relations and exports are heavily impacted by the US-China trade war.

Evidence:
"There are two major implications for Singapore. First, on the external front, in our relations with the US and China. And second, on the domestic front, the impact on our economy." "Singapore’s exports plunged to a six-year low in June, the latest in a series of brutal indicators showing China’s slowdown and the trade war with the United States are wreaking havoc on the economies of Asia’s trade hubs." "Singapore’s total non-oil exports fell 17.3 per cent in June, following a 16.3 per cent decline in May, driven by a 31.9 per cent slump in electronics exports last month. Imports fell by 4.8 per cent, while total trade fell by 7.2 per cent from a year earlier."

Explanation:
External relations
- The US is a major security partner of Singapore, Singapore often purchases military equipments from the US and both countries' troops often train together. The US is also an important economic partner to Singapore as the investments from US in Singapore is the largest. With China, Singapore has established an “All-Round Cooperative Partnership Progressing with the Times”.
Exports
- China is our largest export market. Singapore companies have sizeable investments there, as do Chinese companies in Singapore.
- This is because many of these exporters are deeply integrated with China’s supply chains, supplying electronics, parts and machinery as inputs for Chinese factories, which then assemble and re-export electronic products to the US and other global markets.

SOLUTIONS: 
- The strong trading networks and diversified sectors that Singapore has developed over the years will enable companies in Singapore to navigate disruptions, and seek out new opportunities as well as alternative suppliers and demand markets. These external linkages are best safeguarded by a strong and well-enforced set of WTO rules, as well as a network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that Singapore will continue to expand and deepen.
- Beyond our traditional markets, Singapore is also pursuing closer economic ties with emerging markets to diversify our demand sources and supply chains. For instance, Singapore is looking into FTAs with the Eurasian Economic Union, the Pacific Alliance, and the Southern Common Market in South America.
- Singapore will also continue to press on with efforts to help companies build the capabilities that they need to access new markets. One example is the Industry Transformation Maps (ITMs), which are dynamic plans that will be updated to help companies respond quickly to changes in the economic environment. Currently, there are ITMs for 23 sectors.
- Assistance for local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are also on hand to enhance their capabilities. Both the Enterprise and Development Grant  and Productivity Solutions Grant have been extended for another three years, till March 2022, to help SMEs build up capabilities to grow and transform.

]]> 2020-01-07 07:09:00 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428258365 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428258693 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mrt-train-bus-fare-review-ptc-11981384

CURRENT STATUS:
Point:
- Train and bus fares has increased from 28 December onwards.


Evidence:
- Bus and train fares will go up by 7 per cent from Dec 28, the Public Transport Council (PTC) announced on 8 October, the maximum allowable increase under this year’s fare review exercise.
- This will translate into an increase of 9 cents per journey for adult commuters who use travel cards. They make up about 65 per cent of all public transport trips here.


Explanation:
- Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan said that in any fare adjustment, the Government tries to keep the increase "as low as possible" so it affects as few people as it can.
- The increases are based on the current fare adjustment formula, which came into effect last year and takes into account factors such as energy prices and inflation.
- Both SMRT and SBS Transit had incurred losses on their rail operations. SMRT Trains reported a net loss of S$155 million for the financial year ending in March, while SBS Transit had reported losses of S$125 million for the Downtown Line over the past three years, adding that its train division has lost "tens of millions of dollars" in the last financial year.
- Both companies had applied for the 7 per cent increase, citing rising costs due to expenses such as maintenance and the introduction of new rail lines.


Solution:
- Vouchers will be provided for low-income households.
- To further help lower-income households, the PTC will have both SMRT Trains and SBS Transit contribute about S$3.89 million to the Public Transport Fund - more than double last year's amount.
- Of this, S$1.88 million will come from SBS Transit, while S$2.01 million will come from SMRT. This represents 5 per cent and 10 per cent of their expected increase in fare revenues respectively, said PTC.
- It will allow 450,000 public transport vouchers to be made available to help lower-income households cope with the fare increase.

]]> 2020-01-07 07:11:26 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428258693 s10194949 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428259113  https://www.straitstimes.com/business/labour-market-holds-steady-in-q1-citizen-unemployment-rises-slightly-mom

CURRENT STATUS: 

Point:  
Singapore is currently experiencing cyclical unemployment, and businesses will have to balance against the medium-term picture of a tight domestic market in order to hold on to employees going forward.

Evidence:
"Singapore's economic growth came in below expectations at 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year according to flash estimates, the weakest year-on-year quarterly growth since the global financial crisis."

Explanation:
This is partially due to an increase in the amount of retrenchments which would be 2,500 in the first quarter of 2019, as compared to 2,320 in the first quarter of 2018. This would be due to the cyclical unemployment that Singapore is currently facing. Cyclical unemployment occurs when there is a lack of jobs during a recession, and when real GDP falls. This would mean that Singapore's economic growth is slow and the economy is facing a recession, hence experiencing cyclical unemployment. 

Solutions:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that raising government spending and lowering taxes are not the solution to boost the economy, and said that the  focus must be on boosting productivity.]]> 2020-01-07 07:14:22 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428259113 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428266462 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-near-us70-as-us-says-iran-may-strike-saudi-arabia-again

Point/Current Status:
- Oil prices surges past US$70 after Trump threatens Iraq sanctions.

Evidence:
- Oil prices shot more than 2 per cent higher on Monday (Jan 6), with Brent rising above US$70 a barrel, after US President Donald Trump issued a threat to impose sanctions on Iraq amid escalating tensions with Iran in the Middle East.


Explanation:
-The gains extended Friday’s more-than-3 per cent surge after a US air strike in Iraq killed Iranian top commander Qassem Soleimani on Friday. The killing has heightened concerns of a widening Middle East conflict that could disrupt oil supplies from a region that accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil production.
- On Sunday, President Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq, the second largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), if US troops were forced to withdraw from the country. Baghdad earlier called on American and other foreign troops to leave Iraq.

Solution: 
- At the looks of things currently, Trump is not backing down any time soon.
- Removed the possibility of a lifting of Iranian sanctions, a large downside risk to our oil price forecast.
- Trump's tough talk on Saturday followed Iran's threat of a protracted response, and eclipsed his assertion a day earlier that the US hadn't launched the attack near Baghdad airport on Thursday to "start a war." The president is also sending more troops to the Middle East.
- A prolonged oil price surge could raise the risk of a global economic recession and would add more cost to local price of petrol per litre at petrol stations. 

]]> 2020-01-07 07:50:19 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/428266462 s10196499 https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/429851783 2020-01-10 07:16:09 UTC https://padlet.com/s10196499/x1l1a48mgmx1/wish/429851783