California 48th Congressional District by https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq by Tristan and Ronan - Period 1 en-us 2018-10-23 14:04:31 UTC 2018-11-06 15:55:47 UTC hello@padlet.com California 48th District ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/295964106 Dana Rohrabacher (R) v.Harley Rouda (D)]]> 2018-10-23 14:21:15 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/295964106 Harley Rouda tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299792809 Democrat and the opponent. He sees himself as a businessman and a patriot. His platform focuses on criticizing the current politicians in Washington and promises to change the culture in D.C. ]]> 2018-11-02 14:08:25 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299792809 Dana Rohrabacher ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299793570 Republican and the Incumbent. He's currently serving his 15th term in congress and is facing one of the closest races he's had to do. He is considered a solid Republican and has openly supported Trump.]]> 2018-11-02 14:09:49 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299793570 Demographics ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299793597
Population: 28,304,596
49.7% Males, 50.3% Female

Race: 
-42% White
-39.4% Hispanic or Latino
-12.7% Black
-5% Asian
-0.9% Other

Education:
-82.3% completed High School education
-28.1% completed Bachelor's degree

Median Household income- $54,272

]]> 2018-11-02 14:09:52 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/299793597 Voter Turnout (2016 Election) tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300279358 -Number of eligible voters (2016): 20,832,609
-Number of votes cast (2016): 8,879,738
-42% of the population voted in the 2016 Election

-State voted for Trump in 2016]]> 2018-11-05 00:53:33 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300279358 Texas Registration Requirements tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300280204 -18 Years or Older on election day
-Be a US Citizen
-Be a resident of the county where the application is submitted
-Not be finally convicted of a felony or, if so, have completed the terms of the jail sentence, probation or parole
-Have not been declared by a court exercising probate jurisdiction to be either totally mentally incapacitated or partially mentally incapacitated without the right to vote.]]> 2018-11-05 00:59:56 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300280204 Politics of the Race tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300280705                            Voter Predictions
1. Tyler Morning Telegraph(Oct 15th-28th)
-Sample based off 400 responses by phone and 633 online. Out of 1033, 827 responded
-In sample, Cruz led O'Rourke 47% to 43.4% with 5.7% "not sure" and 3.9% "other"
-MOE of 3.03%

2. Emerson College 
-Emerson predicted a very close race with Cruz holding 50% of the votes, Beto holding 47%, Dikeman, a libertarian candidate, holding 1%, and the last 2% undecided.
-MOE of 3.7%

3. Quinnipiac University(Oct 26)
- Cruz holds a thin 51-46 percent likely voter lead against Beto
-Beto leads Cruz in percent of independent voters 56-40
-MOE is 5.8%

                               Endorsements
Beto receives endorsements from local newspapers such as The Houston Chronicle as well as popular figures such as Gregg Popovich, the coach for the San Antonio Spurs, and former CIA director John Brennan. In addition, Beto staunchly opposes PACS and takes no financial support from them and promotes his grassroots campaign to initiate local communities.

Ted Cruz receives a very large political boost by being endorsed by President Donald Trump. However, some people point out Trump's remarks during their rivalry in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. This has both hurt and helped Cruz's campaign. ]]> 2018-11-05 01:02:47 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300280705 Ad for Rorabacher tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300284909 2018-11-05 01:33:18 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300284909 Ad for Rouda tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300285017 2018-11-05 01:33:56 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300285017 Bibliography tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300286360 “NEW TPStrat Poll:  Rohrabacher Leading By Nine Points Over Rouda In CA-48.” us19.Campaign-Archive.com, us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=37705acaf6.

“CD48 Remains Tight.” Monmouth University Polling Institute, www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ca_102318/.

“Midterm Election Poll: California's 48th District, Rohrabacher vs. Rouda.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 29 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ca48-3.html.

Center for New Media & Promotion, and US Census Bureau. “My Congressional District.” Census.gov, 25 Jan. 2017, www.census.gov/mycd/?st=06&cd=48.

“Endorsements.” Harley Rouda for Congress, www.harleyforcongress.com/supporters/.

“California District 48 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2018&id=CA48&spec=N.]]> 2018-11-05 01:44:11 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300286360 Top Issues tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300290095 1. Immigration- Both sides follow their party platforms with Rorabacher supporting tight restrictions with Rouda supporting more liberal immigration policies.

2.Healthcare- Both claim that they desire to lower costs for everyone, but Rouda claims Rorabacher will only raise costs based on the ad.

3. Job creation/Economy- Both follow typical party alignments with Rouda wanting increased taxing on the wealthy and Rorabacher supporting increased tariffs.]]> 2018-11-05 02:07:44 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300290095 Prediction tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300291847 With everything in consideration, I believe the race will be a tossup, but Rohrabacher will end up winning. Two main reasons would include the current demographics and current polling. Two of the more reliable polls have Rohrabacher winning by slim margins and the fact that whites are typically more republican than not shows why Rohrabacher has been able to win his last 14 races. Even with a blue tide throughout most of California's conservative districts, it only makes this race a close one instead of a blowout for Rohrabacher. In the end, republicans will turnout enough for the incumbent to win.]]> 2018-11-05 02:19:33 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300291847 Campaign Funding tkoster123 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300293045 $2,397,848 raised for Rohrabacher with most coming from large individual contributions

$6,771,526 raised for Rouda with most coming from large indiviudal contributions.

]]> 2018-11-05 02:27:39 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300293045 Texas Senate Race(2018) ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300389569 Ted Cruz(R) v. Beto O'Rourke (D)]]> 2018-11-05 10:42:23 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300389569 Beto O'Rourke ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300391557 The challenging Democrat, Beto O'Rourke has previously served as the U.S. Representative for Texas's 13th congressional district. As a politician and businessman, he holds moderate views and disregards party politics]]> 2018-11-05 10:49:51 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300391557 Sources Cited ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300391812 “Beto for Texas.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/.

Brown, Peter A. “CRUZ AHEAD BY INCHES IN TIGHT TEXAS SENATE RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; ABBOTT AHEAD 14 POINTS IN GOVERNOR’S RACE.” Quinnipiac University, 29 Oct. 2018.

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

“Emerson Poll: West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV.” Emerson College, www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv#.W-A1DJNKjIU.

Mansfield, Erin. “UT Tyler Poll Shows Ted Cruz Leading Beto O'Rourke by 4.3 Points.” TylerPaper.com, 1 Nov. 2018, tylerpaper.com/news/local/ut-tyler-poll-shows-ted-cruz-leading-beto-o-rourke/article_ba27d004-dc91-11e8-8a2e-0b1de9580b62.html.

“Meet Ted.” Ted Cruz for Senate, www.tedcruz.org/meet-ted/.

“Texas Secretary of State.” Voter Registration, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/vr/index.shtml.

“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Texas.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, www.census.gov/quickfacts/tx.

Whyte, Luke, and Annie Daniel. “Here's Where Texas Voters Turned out and Where They Didn't.” The Texas

Tribune, Texas Tribune, 9 Nov. 2016, www.texastribune.org/2016/11/09/heres-where-texas-voters-turned-out-and-where-they/.
]]> 2018-11-05 10:50:49 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300391812 Ted Cruz ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300395433 The incumbent Republican, Ted Cruz holds very strong conservative ideals. He pushes for lower taxes to promote economic growth and border security.]]> 2018-11-05 11:04:02 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300395433 Beto Ad ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300398693 2018-11-05 11:16:41 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300398693 Demographics ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300400740
Population: 721,632
51% Males, 49% Female

Race: 
-69% White
-17.9% Asian
-13.1% Other

Ethnicity: 20.7% considered Hispanic 

24% are foreign born citizens

]]> 2018-11-05 11:24:13 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300400740 Cruz Ad ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300404967 2018-11-05 11:39:36 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300404967 Voter Turnout (2016 Election) ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300405649 178,701 votes for Rohrabacher or 58.3% of the vote

127,715 or 41.7% of the vote for Suzanne Savary

-District voted for Trump in 2016]]> 2018-11-05 11:42:16 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300405649 Politics of the Race ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300407205                            Voter Predictions
1. Monmouth University      10/17 - 10/21
-50% of the vote for Rohrabacher, 48% for Rouda
-Approval for Donald Trump has raised to 54%

2. NY Times 
-46% of the vote for Rouda, 45% for Rohrabacher
-Only based off 491 votes from phone calls.

3. Thomas Partner Strategies 10/31
- 50.7% for Rohrabacher and 41.6% for Rouda
- 4.4% Margin of Error with 440 Likely Voters
-Republican Sentiment has increased in the district over the last couple of months

                               Endorsements
Biggest endorsement for Rorabacher comes from Donald Trump, which helps reassure typical conservative voters to continue voting republican.

Most of Rouda's endorsements come from current Democrat members on congress that include Nancy Pelosi and Linda Sanchez. This energizes supporters of other democratic politicans to also support Rouda

                       

                      ]]> 2018-11-05 11:47:34 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300407205 California Registration Requirements ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300407758 -18 Years or Older
-Not currently in any type of Prison or on Parole
-Mentally competent to vote by California courts
-Drivers License ]]> 2018-11-05 11:49:24 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300407758 Campaign Funding ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300434462 Senator Ted Cruz has raised $40,118,702. His greatest source of income comes from Large individual contributions(41.04%). Some contributors for Cruz include Senate Conservatives Fund, Woodforest Financial Group, and NorPAC. 

Beto O'Rourke has raised $69,099,074. His greatest source of income comes from Large individual contributions(55.19%) as well. Some contributors for Beto include University of Texas, Apple Inc, and Harvard University.]]> 2018-11-05 13:09:48 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300434462 Top Issues ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300438063 1. Economy
-Both candidates seek to regulate the Texas economy in their ideologies. Cruz fights to lower taxes on Business and to decrease regulation on commerce. Beto works to promote regulation to promote competition and allow small businesses to grow and promote policies that return company investments back to the employees and communities.

2. Gun Safety(2nd Amendment)
-In a gun-loving state that loves the 2nd amendment, gun safety is a very sensitive issue, especially due to the recent shootings across America in the past several years. Beto pushes for universal background checks for the purchase of any firearm. In addition, he moves to create a ban on assault rifles and weapon additions such as bump stocks. Cruz does not support any bans on firearms but vehemently pushes for background checks. 

3. Education
- Education in Texas is a heavily debated issue. Beto and Cruz address this in different ways. Cruz wants equal education for all Texans so he opposes Common Core and supports decision making on the state and local level so that schools address the specific needs of their students. Beto takes a wider approach. He believes no public tax dollars should be given to private schools and public funding should be increased in under served communities. In addition, Beto wants to reduce the amount of high-stakes tests in schools and to prevent any discrimination of students based on their gender or sexual orientation.]]> 2018-11-05 13:18:07 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300438063 Prediction ronanp_4920 https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300468362 With all of these facts considered, I believe that the race will be extremely close  but Cruz will win in the end.  Cruz has the natural lead as Texas has been a Republican state since 1994. Cruz still holds 6.5% more voters according to RealClearPolitics. Also, I believe Cruz's ideals of strict border security, moderate gun safety laws, and a unregulated/low tax economy will heavily appeal to the population of white Texans, thus giving him the majority of Texas's vote. However, Beto has shown growing percentages and is slowly catching up to Cruz in voter percentages. His percentages come dangerously close to Cruz's and some argue that they're even. Despite these polls, the Republican party will succeed and Cruz will win with President Donald Trump's backing.]]> 2018-11-05 14:10:57 UTC https://padlet.com/ronanp_4920/wgqs90rsgopq/wish/300468362