Luca Valdivia Ohio's 1st Congressional District Midterm Election Project by Luca Valdivia

Luca Valdivia Ohio's 1st Congressional District Midterm Election Project by Luca Valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd Made with finesse en-us 2018-11-08 00:18:52 UTC 2018-11-09 15:36:21 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Balance.png Basic Information luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301848767

Current Republican incumbent of the House the Representatives since 1995

Before pursuing the politics, Chabot tried to run for Cincinnati City Council in 1979 as an independent candidate.

Was successful from 1985-1990

He ran for the House of Representatives for the first time in 1991 and defeated the Democratic incumbent David S. Mann 56% to 44%.

]]> 2018-11-08 00:21:36 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301848767 Basic Information luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301851640

He was the Democratic challenger for Ohio's 1st Congressional District House seat.

This was his first federal government election he participated in.

He was previously the Hamilton County Clerk of Courts since 2017

]]> 2018-11-08 00:36:51 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301851640 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301854649 2018-11-08 00:52:25 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301854649 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856024 2018-11-08 00:58:27 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856024 Committees luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856688 He currently serves on three committees in the House:

House Committee on Small Business
House Committee of the Judiciary
House Committee on Foreign Affairs

]]> 2018-11-08 01:01:29 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856688 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856842 2018-11-08 01:02:09 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301856842 Republican Primary luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301857164 Chabot ran against fellow Republican Samuel Ronan. Chabot defeated Ronan by a landslide in the election on May 8, 2018. Chabot won 83% to 17%.]]> 2018-11-08 01:03:38 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301857164 Committees luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858157 He was never part of the House of Representatives in his political career and therefore did not participate in any committees.]]> 2018-11-08 01:08:08 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858157 Democratic Primary luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858206 Aftab ran unopposed in the democratic primary elections.]]> 2018-11-08 01:08:18 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858206 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858341 2018-11-08 01:08:55 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301858341 Fit with the Republican Party luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301859667 According to ontheissues.org for Chabot, he is given a score of 100% on economic issues and 20% for social issues, placing him perfectly under the category for right conservatism candidate. This shows how much of a fit he is for his party.]]> 2018-11-08 01:15:08 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301859667 Economic Platform luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860311 According to ontheissues.org, under his votes toward business and economic decisions, he leans towards the decrease in government spending and intervention in the economy. This is a highlight of conservatism ideologies. His economic views put him toward the capitalism side of the spectrum.]]> 2018-11-08 01:18:18 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860311 Fit with the Democratic Party luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860348 Unfortunately, Pureval has denied voters access to his positions on key issues covered on the 2018 Political Courage Test. However, some of his views were released. He promotes to preserve Obamacare and have gun control rights set in place. The healthcare plans and the involvement of current issues show his democratic political nature, making him a great fit for this party. ]]> 2018-11-08 01:18:32 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860348 Economic Platform luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860367 Pureval has stated that he promotes government spending to promote the economy and stimulate it. He is siding with government intervention in the economy. He also states that he wants to prevent any tax cuts. This shows his democratic economic beliefs and puts him at the communist end of the economic spectrum.]]> 2018-11-08 01:18:37 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301860367 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301874379 2018-11-08 02:30:25 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301874379 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301875680 2018-11-08 02:38:46 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301875680 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301875930 2018-11-08 02:40:33 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301875930 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301876646 2018-11-08 02:45:22 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301876646 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301876877 2018-11-08 02:46:55 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301876877 Demographics (For Congressional District 1) luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301877771

Population: 729,005 (from 2010 census)

expected to be higher for this election

Race:

72.9% White
22.4% Black
2.4% Asian

2.9% Hispanic

Gender:

Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%

]]> 2018-11-08 02:52:09 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301877771 Voter Registration Laws luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301879907

To receive Ohio voters registration:

be a US citizen
be at least 18 years of age or older before election day
be an Ohio resident for at least 30 days

In Ohio, if you're a felon, you're voting right is revoked.

To register to vote, either the last four numbers of your social security must be provided or your Ohio drivers license.

In order to change voter registration, it has to be done 30 days before an upcoming election in order to be valid for the coming election.

]]> 2018-11-08 03:04:27 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301879907 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301880871 2018-11-08 03:09:00 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301880871 Key Industries luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301882414

Advanced Energy and Environmental Technologies

Aerospace and Aviation

Agriculture and Food Processing

Bioscience and Bioproducts

Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing (major industry)

Polymers and Advanced Materials

]]> 2018-11-08 03:18:30 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301882414 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301882677 2018-11-08 03:20:08 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301882677 Occupations and Businesses in Ohio luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301883436

Most Valuable Companies Headquartered in Ohio

Macy's
Kroger
P&G
Convergys
Goodyear Tires
Sherwin-Williams paint
Marathon Petroleum

No change in supply or demand was recorded for any of those major industries.

Kroger and Macy's are the highest employing companies based in Ohio, with approximately 433,000 and 148,300 employees respectively.

The main jobs that most Ohio residents have are in consumer businesses, such as cashiers, food processing industries, and nursing. Underrepresented occupations include computer technology jobs and jobs in the entertainment industry.

]]> 2018-11-08 03:25:26 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301883436 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301883783 2018-11-08 03:28:12 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301883783 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301885054 2018-11-08 03:38:19 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301885054 Price Controls luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301885136 Because the automotive industry and the agriculture industry are the two largest industries in Ohio, there is most likely price limits on those two. The people most likely pay attention to the amount of regulations the government places on those industries since it will affect the Ohio economy the greatest.]]> 2018-11-08 03:38:47 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301885136 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301887233 2018-11-08 03:53:53 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301887233 Employment Compared to the Rest of the United States luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301887541 Compared to the rest of the United States, Ohio's employment in the automotive industry and investment in it is significantly higher than that of other states, making it over represented.]]> 2018-11-08 03:55:59 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301887541 Public Opinion Poll October 30, 2018 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888027 This public opinion poll was conducted by the New York Times at Sienna College. This is the most recent public poll conducted before Election Day.

Results:

Chabot (+9%)
Chabot 50% - Pureval 41%
Margin of Error: +/- 4.5%
Total Sample Size: 492

]]> 2018-11-08 03:58:56 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888027 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888075 2018-11-08 03:59:17 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888075 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888187 2018-11-08 03:59:55 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888187 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888258 2018-11-08 04:00:15 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/301888258 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302156900 2018-11-08 16:17:37 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302156900 Thesis for Prediction luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302162690 I predict that Chabot(R) will win the election and remain in his spot as the incumbent in the House of Representatives. He will most likely win by a 5% margin over Pureval (D).]]> 2018-11-08 16:25:47 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302162690 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302163799 2018-11-08 16:27:32 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302163799 Endorsement by Interest Groups luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302169271 The Buckeye Firearms Association, a gun distributor centered in Columbus, Ohio endorsed Republican candidate Chabot. The Human Rights Campaign Endorsed the Democratic Challegner Aftab Pureval. This is the largest organization that advocates for LGBTQ rights and equality. The majority of the interest groups that endorse both candidates are located inside the state of Ohio, not outside. The groups that are spending money on these candidates are the Republicans Party for Chabot and the Democratic Party for Pureval. Interest groups are also donateing money to help assist in both candidates' campaigns.]]> 2018-11-08 16:35:37 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302169271 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302352507 2018-11-08 21:59:20 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302352507 President Trump Support luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302354507 Steve Chabot supported Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. He even came to Cincinnati for a rally and he stated his support for Chabot in October 2018. However, Pureval is not in favor of Trump. These is most likely because of party differences and the partisanship that is present in current politics. He endorsed the democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, instead.]]> 2018-11-08 22:07:43 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302354507 luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302354635 2018-11-08 22:08:14 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302354635 Big Issues luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302355213 In addition to the current issues going on in the United States as a whole, such as civil rights and economic growth, the candidates focused on some events and happenings that affect the State of Ohio itself, such as job security and proper health care (whether it be continuing Obamacare or creating a new system). They focused on issues that would affect Ohio in the long run, not short term issues.]]> 2018-11-08 22:10:28 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302355213 EVIDENCE FOR CLAIM luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302357586 2018-11-08 22:20:12 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302357586 Public Polls luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302357677 In all of the public polls conducted (according to project.fivethrityeight.com), Steve Chabot emerged victorious in all of them except for one, where Pureval and Chabot were even at 45% on October 30, 2018. This consistant trend in victories for Chabot in the public polls demonstrates that Chabot has the more likely chance of winning in the legitimate election poll for Representative. Other than that, if Pureval wins, that would come as a shock to most residents in Ohio's first congressional district.]]> 2018-11-08 22:20:37 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302357677 Party Division in Ohio luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302359107 Ohio has always been a very Republican state. Even in the 2016 presidential election, there was a drastic republican majority, as 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio had the Republican majority in that election. I expect this trend to continue to be present even during these midterm elections, where almost all of Ohio votes Republican, and lead to Chabot remaining in the House of Representatives.]]> 2018-11-08 22:26:21 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302359107 EVIDENCE AGAINST CLAIM luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302360683 2018-11-08 22:32:42 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302360683 Public Polls do not Encapsulate all of Opinions of Ohio Residents luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302360705 Even though Chabot emerged the winner in all but one of the public polls Ohio held, not even close to all of the members partook in these polls. At ax, the highest number of voters in one poll was 492 people in an October 30, 2018 poll. This is only 0.004% of Ohio's total population. Even though this may be considered a large enough sample size to say that the results of the actual election will match that with the polls, there could be a large Democratic majority that did not appear to vote at the public poll.]]> 2018-11-08 22:32:48 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302360705 Actual Results of the Election after Election Day luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302362724 Steve Chabot emerged victorious against Aftab Pureval with the voter percentage of 52% to 46% respectively. Chabot keeps his seat in the House of Representatives for an additional 2 years. Now all we have to do is wait for another challenger to see if Chabot can be removed from his seat. However, this might be very unlikely unless Ohio spontaneously and surprisingly changes from a major Republican state to a more Democratic state.]]> 2018-11-08 22:41:14 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302362724 MLA citations luca_valdivia https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302602367 CHABOT, Steve- Biographical Information, bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=c000266.

“Committees.” Congressman Steve Chabot 1st District of Ohio, chabot.house.gov/about-steve/committees.htm.

Coon, John. “Top 5 Industries in Ohio: Which Parts of the Economy Are Strongest?” Newsmax, Newsmax Inc. Newsmax Inc., 13 Apr. 2015, www.newsmax.com/fastfeatures/industries-in-ohio-economy/2015/04/13/id/638126/.

DataDhrumil. “Ohio 1st District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 8 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/ohio/1/.

“Key Industries | NEOTEC.” Northeast Ohio Trade & Economic Consortium, www.neotec.org/site.cfm/About-NE-Ohio/Industry-Profiles.cfm.

“Midterm Election Poll: Ohio's 1st District, Chabot vs. Pureval.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-oh01-3.html.

Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information. Occupation Profile Career Specific, ohiolmi.com/asp/oeswage/SOCWage.asp?Source=Wage.

“Ohio's 1st Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

OnTheIssues.org. Republican Party on Families & Children, www.ontheissues.org/OH/Steve_Chabot.htm.

“Re-Elect Steve Chabot: A Proven Conservative Leader.” Steve Chabot for Congress, stevechabot.com/.

“Republican National Committee.” GOP, www.gop.com/.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/21790/steve-chabot/37#.W-WncpNKjb1.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/178833/aftab-pureval/#.W-Wl_JNKjb1.

“These Are The 100 Largest Companies In Ohio.” Zippia, 16 Oct. 2018, www.zippia.com/advice/largest-companies-in-ohio/.

“Voter Registration in Ohio.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/oh-ohio/voter-registration.php.

Wartman, Scott. “Steve Chabot: I Didn't Ask President Trump to Hold a Rally Here, but....” Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati Enquirer, 8 Oct. 2018, www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/08/trump-visit-welcomed-surprise-chabot/1537027002/.

]]> 2018-11-09 15:15:55 UTC https://padlet.com/luca_valdivia/uwog1ymvtucd/wish/302602367