1 afghanistan

Despite small but significant advances in the peace talks, many things could go wrong for Afghanistan in 2021.

After nearly two decades of fighting, the US government signed an agreement with the Taliban insurgents in February. Washington agreed to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban pledging to ban terrorists from using the country as a base of operations and to enter into talks with the Afghan government.

The Afghan peace talks were slow to get under way. The government took six months to carry out a prisoner swap that the US promised the Taliban the release of 1,000 soldiers or government officials held by the Taliban in exchange for 5,000 Taliban fighters, deemed unequal by Kabul. The insurgents, who had initially reduced suicide bombings and assaults on cities and towns, responded to the delay by intensifying assaults and killings

 

Yemen Yemen's war has caused what the UN still considers the world's worst humanitarian disaster. COVID-19 has exacerbated the suffering of civilians already beset by poverty, hunger and other diseases. Senior humanitarian officials again warn that there may be famine. A year ago, there was an opportunity to end the war, but the insurgents squandered it. The Houthi rebels were engaging in unofficial dialogue with Saudi Arabia, the main external sponsor of the Yemeni government recognized by the UN and led by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The Saudis were also mediating between anti-Houthi factions clashing over the status of Aden, a southern city that is the interim capital of the government and has been controlled by the separatist Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). since August 2019. Combined, these two negotiation initiatives could have served as pillars for the construction of a political process mediated by the UN. Instead, fighting has escalated, particularly in Marib, the last urban stronghold of the Hadi government in the north. A year of difficult negotiations passed before the anti-Houthi factions agreed on how to share security responsibilities in the south, move their troops away from the firing lines and form a new government. Negotiations are likely to face further hurdles over cabinet relocation to Aden. UN peace efforts have also come to a halt. Both the Houthis and Hadi's government have reason to stagnate. If they prevail in Marib, the Houthis will have conquered the north and with it the province's oil, gas and power plant, allowing them to generate much-needed electricity and income. The government cannot afford to lose Marib, but it harbors another hope: The outgoing Trump administration may, in a final onslaught against Iran, designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization, closing the economic siege against the rebels and complicating negotiations with them by part of external actors. Such a move would increase the risks of famine by obstructing trade with Yemen, which imports 90 percent of its wheat and all its rice. It could also herald the end of the UN's mediation efforts.