Midterm Election Analysis - Illinois' 12th District by Soyoun Choi

Midterm Election Analysis - Illinois' 12th District by Soyoun Choi https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2 Made with meticulous research and punctilious reasoning en-us 2018-11-08 01:49:30 UTC 2025-11-18 19:15:45 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Balance.png Michael (Mike) Bost (Incumbent, Republican Party) vs. Brendan Kelly (Democratic Party) vs. Randy Auxier (Green Party) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301871356 2018-11-08 02:14:16 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301871356 Mike Bost (Republican) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301871631 Primary Race
- Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Preston Nelson in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018 (83.5% : 16.5%) (“Mike Bost”

Note: Viewer can click directly on the red-colored names of candidates for further information regarding the specific candidate.

Background Information
- Sworn in to office on January 6, 2015 (Incumbent) (“Biography” )
- Has since represented 12 counties of Illinois’ 12th District in U.S. House of Representatives (“Biography” )
- Career began in U.S. military, then moved on to be a first responder, a local job creator, and a state representative (“Biography” )
- Served for two decades in the Illinois House of Representatives prior to his election to Congress (“Biography” )
- More background information about Mike Bost can be found in the link below which is his biography on the official Congressman Mike Bost webpage (“Biography” )

Political Standpoint
- Relatively aligned with ideals of Republican Party
- Considered traditional Republican politician with conservative ideologies

Economic Platform:
Improving Agriculture
- Mike has fought to reduce regulatory burdens that strangle our farmers and ranchers (“Issues”)
- Worked to provide our producers with the tools they need to help mitigate against risk in a fiscally responsible way through the Farm Bill (“Issues”)
- Has sponsored critical legislation to help beginning farmers and ranchers access credit (“Issues”)
- Voted to make major investments in rural broadband that would benefit under-served areas like Southern Illinois (“Issues”)
Moving Toward Energy Independence
- Mike has consistently supported an all-of-the above energy policy that makes use of all our nation’s resources (“Issues”)
Moving Our Economy Forward
- Mike has fought for policies that allow working families to keep more of their hard-earned money and promote economic growth (“Issues”)
- Voted for Tax Reform legislation, which gives an average tax cut of over $2,2000 to Southern Illinois families (“Issues”)
- voted to roll back job-killing regulations left over by the Obama Administration (“Issues”)
Accessible & Affordable Healthcare
- Supports allowing businesses and associations to pull together their health plans to obtain larger health care premium discounts from major health insurers (“Issues”)
- Wants to encourage more, not less competition, in the Medicare system by expanding, not shrinking, the popular Medicare Advantage program (“Issues”)
Reining in Government Spending
- Congress should be held to the same standards. Congress must make decisions that balance our federal budget in a reasonable, responsible way that leaves a country to our children and grandchildren better than the one we inherited (“Issues”)
Providing for Our National Defense
- Mike is committed to a strong national defense (“Issues”)
- strong supporter of a robust defense budget and a proud advocate for Scott Air Force Base – a vital economic engine to Southern Illinois (“Issues”)
Protecting Social Security & Medicare
- Mike opposes efforts to privatize, raise the retirement age or increase the payroll tax (“Issues”)
Additional Platform Statement:
"We have a constitutionally protected right to keep and bear arms and it must be preserved and defended at all levels of government. Period." (“Issues”)

Economic Spectrum: Regulated Capitalism
- Bost believes in fundamental idea of capitalism but incorporates specific needs for government control such as opposing efforts to privatize medical treatment.
*Note: There is a diagram of the economic system below (right below this Mike Bost text box) that is being used for this explanation.

]]> 2018-11-08 02:16:01 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301871631 Brendan Kelly (Democrat) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301875862 Primary Race
- Brendan Kelly defeated David Bequette in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018 (81.0% : 19.0%) ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")

Background Information
- Has a degree in government and international relations from Notre Dame University ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")
- Was an officer in the Navy ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")
- Has been a representative for the National District Attorneys Association ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")
- Served as an executive committee member of Fight Crime, Invest in Kids and as chairman of the St. Clair County Child Advocacy Center ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")
- Was the state's attorney of St. Clair County at time of 2018 election ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")
- More background information about Brendan Kelly can be found in the link below which is his biography ("Brendan Kelly (Illinois)")

Political Standpoint
- Kelley is considered a moderate (Smith)
- Says he is less interested in rhetoric and more interested in results — even if it means breaking from his own party (Smith)
- In an interview with The Southern after his primary victory Tuesday over David Bequette, Kelly discussed the merits of being a moderate.

“I think we are at a point in our country’s history where it is courageous to come forward and break the party mold and reach out across party lines and actually get some things done,” Kelly said (Smith).
- Trying his best to lean to the middle, even across the aisle if he thinks that’s what’s best for his district (Smith)

Economic Platform
- Advocate for enhanced spending on infrastructure programs (Parker)
- Find solutions to replace outdated public housing facilities is particularly important to him as his district includes at least two cities — East St. Louis and Cairo — facing major needs for improved affordable housing for people who are living in deep poverty (Parker)
- Infrastructure projects sponsored by the federal government also result in jobs, both directly and indirectly by the private businesses that are supported by improvements to rail, road and river port improvements (Parker)
- Supporting innovative programs for law enforcement and the courts, and making sure people have adequate access to health care that includes treatment for mental health and substance abuse (Parker)

Economic Spectrum: Regulated Capitalism
- Kelly's platform represents a regulated capitalism, but he has proposed more instances of government control which puts his platform a bit more left than that of Bost

]]> 2018-11-08 02:40:00 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301875862 Randy Auxier (Green Party) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301884263 Primary Race
- Randy Auxier won election in the green primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018 (no competition) (The News-Democrat)

Background Information
- Professor of philosophy and communication studies at Southern Illinois University Carbondale (The News-Democrat)
- Radio host for WDBX Carbondale (The News-Democrat)
- Also an author, and co-founder and co-director of the AIPCT (The American Institute for Philosophical and Cultural Thought) (The News-Democrat)
- More background information about Randy Auxier can be found in the link below (The News-Democrat)

Political Standpoint
- Has many political, philosophical views that align more with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party
- Places great emphasis on Green Party ideologies
- Main ideals can be inferred from answers to interview questions such as:
What would be your top three priorities, if elected?

“1) green energy
2) green transportation options
3) healthcare”

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?

“I am especially interested in economic development that is sustainable given the inevitable decline in fossil fuels.” (The News-Democrat)

Economic Platform
- "especially interested in economic development that is sustainable given the inevitable decline in fossil fuels" (The News-Democrat)
- Economic platform based on environment health (The News-Democrat)

Economic Spectrum: Between Regulated Capitalism and Social Democracy
- Auxier proposes many examples of government regulations for the purpose of serving the environment of the U.S. The platform of more regulation places him to be more left on the economic spectrum than Bost and furthermore, Kelly.

]]> 2018-11-08 03:31:52 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301884263 Works Cited soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301892154 Associated Press. “Trump to Hold Rally for Bost in Southern Illinois.” Chicagotribune.com, 22 Oct. 2018, www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-bc-il--election-2018-house-illinois-trump-20181022-story.html.

“Biography.” Congressman Mike Bost, 2 Aug. 2017, bost.house.gov/about/full-biography.

“Brendan Kelly (Illinois).” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Brendan_Kelly_(Illinois).

Bustos, Joseph. “Bost, Kelly Neck-and-Neck with Less than a Month to Go. Will Green Party Play Spoiler?” Bnd, Belleville News-Democrat, www.bnd.com/news/politics-government/election/article219514355.html.

Chicago Tribune. “How Illinois Democrats Won a Statewide Sweep and 2 Pivotal Congressional Seats in the Midterm Elections.” Chicagotribune.com, 7 Nov. 2018, www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/elections/ct-met-illinois-election-day-live-updates-20181106-story.html.

“Illinois Population 2018.” Total Population by Country 2018, worldpopulationreview.com/states/illinois-population/.

“Illinois' 12th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District

“Illinois' 12th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

InfoNet Development Team. “State Profile: Largest Employers.” America's Career InfoNet: Employment Trends by Occupation, www.careerinfonet.org/oview6.asp?soccode=&id=&nodeid=12&stfips=17&from=State.

“Issues.” Bost for Congress, bostforcongress.com/issues/.

“Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 12th District, Bost vs. Kelly.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 18 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il12-3.html.

“Mike Bost.” Ballotpedia, 2018, ballotpedia.org/Mike_Bost.

Murse, Tom, and Nieman Foundation. “Do Members of Congress Ever Lose Re-Election?” Thoughtco., Thoughtco, www.thoughtco.com/do-congressmen-ever-lose-re-election-3367511.

NSTATE, LLC www.n-state.com. “Illinois Economy.” Economy of Pennsylvania Including Pennsylvania Agriculture and Manufacturing from NETSTATE.COM, www.netstate.com/economy/il_economy.htm.

“Occupational Employment and Wages in Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights - May 2017 : Midwest Information Office.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 17 May 2018, www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/occupationalemploymentandwages_chicago.htm.

Parker, Molly. “Brendan Kelly Lays out Platform for 12th Congressional District Run.” The Southern, The Southern Illinoisan, 1 Oct. 2017, thesouthern.com/news/local/brendan-kelly-lays-out-platform-for-th-congressional-district-run/article_18300049-1c45-5945-9e97-d9e5d084bfec.html.

Smith, Isaac. “If He Wins, Brendan Kelly Wants a Change in Leadership - Meaning Finding Options Other than Pelosi.” The Southern, 26 Mar. 2018, thesouthern.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/if-he-wins-brendan-kelly-wants-a-change-in-leadership/article_31f4095e-34a9-57f7-8bc2-93a39b5ed5e9.html.

SwingLeft. Know Before You Go: IL-12 District Primer . Mar. 2018, swingleft.org/static/resources/primers/district-primer-IL-12.pdf.

The News-Democrat. “Candidate Profile: Randy Auxier.” Bnd, Belleville News-Democrat, 2 Oct. 2018, www.bnd.com/news/politics-government/election/article219393570.html.

“Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.” FiveThirtyEight, 10 Oct. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/mike-bost/.

“Voter Registration in Illinois.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/il-illinois/voter-registration.php.

]]> 2018-11-08 04:29:00 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301892154 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301893958 2018-11-08 04:42:33 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301893958 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894224 2018-11-08 04:44:41 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894224 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894323 2018-11-08 04:45:45 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894323 Randy Auxier (Green Party Candidate) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894366 2018-11-08 04:46:02 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894366 Michael (Mike) Bost (Republican Party Incumbent Candidate) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894457 2018-11-08 04:46:36 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894457 Brendan Kelly (Democratic Party Candidate) soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894561 2018-11-08 04:47:37 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/301894561 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302821254 2018-11-10 04:25:28 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302821254 Information about Illinois State & Illinois' 12th District soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302821643 - Illinois: 72.1% of the population is Caucasian, 14.3% African American, 5.9% other races, 5.1% Asian, 2.3% two or more, and 0% Natives of America/Alaska/Islanders (“Illinois Population 2018")
- Median age in Illinois is 37.4 years of age, with a slight gender difference over the state- 50.9% female and 49.1% male (“Illinois Population 2018")
- Illnois shows its preferences with a 71% preference for Christian based faiths, a 6% affiliation with non-Christian based faiths, and 22% of the population being unaffiliated with any particular religion (“Illinois Population 2018")

- 12th District: makes up the southern tip of the state (“Illinois' 12th Congressional District”)
- Includes the counties of Jefferson, Perry, Franklin, Williamson, Union, Alexander, Pulaski, Jackson, Randolph, Monroe, and St. Claire along with part of Madison County (“Illinois' 12th Congressional District”)
- The district is overwhelmingly white (77%), but socioeconomically diverse. The liberal, racially diverse areas are in the northwest, particularly the commuter suburbs of St. Louis. Other liberal pockets include the college town of Carbondale, where the Green Party does well, and Cairo, a majority African-American city. The district has a high unemployment rate of 10%, and a low college graduation rate of 21% (SwingLeft)
Based on 2010 Census, 12th District Population: 713,289
- Gender: 48.9% Male, 51.1% Female
- Race^[1]: 79% White, 17.1% Black, 1.1% Asian
- Ethnicity: 3% Hispanic
- Unemployment: 9.7%
- Median household income: $42,181
- High school graduation rate: 88.4%
- College graduation rate: 20.9%
(“Illinois' 12th Congressional District”)

Voter Turnout in last election:
- United States presidential election in Illinois, 2016
- Turnout: 70.56%
- Hillary Clinton Percentage: 55.83%
- Donald Trump Percentage: 38.76%
- Illinois Midterm Election 2016
- Total Votes: 313,002
- Republican - Mike Bost (Incumbent) | 54.3% | 169,976
- Democratic - C.J. Baricevic | 39.7% | 124,246
- Green - Paula Bradshaw | 6% | 18,780
(“Illinois' 12th Congressional District”)
- Illinois Midterm Election 2018
- Chicago Board of Election Commissioners announced an unofficial turnout rate of 55.6 percent as of about 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, the highest midterm turnout in 32 years (Chicago Tribune)

Voting Registration Laws of Illinois
- person must be a U.S. citizen who has resided in an Illinois precinct for at least 30 days prior to Election Day
- Voter must be at least 18 years of age by Election Day
- NOT be registered to vote in another state
- Person is not eligible to vote while incarcerated
- Must register to vote at least 27 days before the next election
- You can register to vote online, by mail, as well as in person at your county election authority
- You can also process your voter registration at your local IL driver license office when you apply for a new driver's license
- register to vote online using the state's Online Voter Registration Application
- To register to vote by mail in Illinois, you will need:

A completed Illinois Voter Registration Application (Form SBE R-19) (Spanish-language version also available).
2 documents proving identification. 1 document must show your current address.
- Either a copy of your valid photo identification, such as your:
  - Driver's license.
  - ID card.
- OR
- The last 4 digits of your SSN and a valid photo identification.
- A copy of a document proving your residential address, such as your:
  - Current utility bill.
  - Bank statement.
  - Pay check.

Send the above to your local election authority or to:

State Board of Elections
Voter Registration Department
2329 S. MacArthur Blvd.
Springfield, IL 62704

Once your application is processed, you will be mailed an IL voter identification card.
- You can register to vote in person at:

Board of Election Commissioner's Office.
Locations designated by the election authority.
County Clerk's Office.
City and Village Offices.
Military Recruitment Offices.
Township Offices.
Schools.
Public Libraries.
Locations specifically designated by the election authority.

- If you're an IL resident currently on active-military duty or residing overseas, you can register to vote in federal elections through the Federal Voting Assistance Program.
- As long as you are a registered voter and meet the state's qualifications, you can register as an “absentee voter" by mail using an early ballot or in person following the state's early voting process.
- To update the name or address on your voter registration, you must re-submit the Illinois Voter Registration Application to your local Board of Elections office.

(“Voter Registration in Illinois”)

]]> 2018-11-10 04:33:51 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302821643 Mike Bost Election Campaign Video 2018 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858136 2018-11-10 13:27:14 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858136 Brendan Kelly Election Campaign Video 2018 soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858320 2018-11-10 13:29:10 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858320 Economic Aspects of Illinois and Illinois' 12th District soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858826 Key Industries
- Generate most of their revenue through service industries
- Livestock: Hogs are the most important livestock product in the state, followed by beef cattle, milk, chickens and eggs
- Crop: sold as grain and livestock feed but corn is also processed to produce corn syrup, starch and fuel alcohol/Soybeans are the second most farm product, followed by hay, wheat, rye, oats and grain sorghum/Apples are the most important fruit crop in Illinois/Other fruit crops are melons and peaches/Vegetable crops, other than sweet corn, are asparagus, cabbage, lima beans and snap beans.
- Manufacturing
- Mining
- Community, business and personal services (private health care, hotels, law firms, repair shops, accounting firms, advertising agencies, engineering companies, law firms) lead the way in the services industry
(NSTATE, LLC)

Public Companies in Area
- The largest industries in IL-12 are education, healthcare, social assistance, retail, and manufacturing. Although higher education had been a large employer in the past, Illinois’ budget impasse, combined with declining university enrollment at Southern Illinois, Carbondale, has hurt the local economy. Demand for higher level education has decreased meaning that supply for the education must also decrease to avoid an excessive surplus. Scott Air Force Base is also a large employer, both civilian and military. It recently added new cyber security squadrons. The steel, oil-refining and coal industries, once significant revenue generators, have declined in recent years due to decrease in demand caused by the new cyber security squadrons.
- There are three higher education institutions in the district as well as part of a fourth university town, Edwardsville. Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, is the most prominent campus, with 17,292 students.
(SwingLeft)

Price Controls
- A price floor is a government- or group-imposed price control or limit on how low a price can be charged for a product
- A price ceiling is a government-imposed price control, or limit, on how high a price is charged for a product. Governments use price ceilings to protect consumers from conditions that could make commodities prohibitively expensive
- For the 12th District, a price floor is important for the steel, oil-refining and coal industries as demand as significantly dropped hurting the economy. These industries need to be protected with a price floor so that their prices do not constituent to drop regardless of the decreasing size of the industry. This will help save the industries that are already struggling economically.
- Yet, for the higher education cost, there should be a price ceiling so that prices for education do not continually go up preventing more students from attaining an higher level education. This will be significant for the consumers.

Illinois' Economy in Relation to U.S.
- Ranked 36th for Economy out of US States and Territories
- Chicago is the third-largest city in the US, and it anchors the Illinois economy. Illinois is home to several major corporations like Boeing, Walgreens, and McDonald's.

- Illinois' Q3 2017 GDP growth rate of 3.5% was higher than the 2.9% average rate among the states and DC, and its GDP per capita of $64,365 was higher than the average of $59,540.

Management

US 5.1 | Illinois 7.8

Business and financial operations

US 5.2 | Illinois 6.1

Computer and mathematical

US 3.0 | Illinois 3.4

Architecture and engineering

US 1.8 | Illinois 1.4

Life, physical, and social science

US 0.8 | Illinois 0.6

Community and social service

US 1.5 | Illinois 1.3

Legal

US 0.8 | Illinois 1.0

Education, training, and library

US 6.1 | Illinois 6.0

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

US 1.4 | Illinois 1.4

Healthcare practitioners and technical

US 6.0 | Illinois 5.7

Healthcare support

US 2.9 | Illinois 2.7

Protective service

US 2.4 | Illinois 2.8

Food preparation and serving related

US 9.3 | Illinois 8.4

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

US 3.1 | Illinois 2.7

Personal care and service

US 3.6 | Illinois 3.0

Sales and related

US 10.2 | Illinois 9.6

Office and administrative support

US 15.4 | Illinois 15.4

Farming, fishing, and forestry

US 0.3 | Illinois 0.1

Construction and extraction

US 4.0 | Illinois 2.7

Installation, maintenance, and repair

US 3.9 | Illinois 3.2

Production

US 6.3 | Illinois 6.7

Transportation and material moving

US 7.0 | Illinois 8.0
(“Occupational Employment...")

-Overall, Illinois occupation distribution aligns with that of the US
- Slight over representation is seen in Management and Business and financial operations.
- Slight under representation is seen in Construction and extraction and Installation, maintenance, and repair.

]]> 2018-11-10 13:34:56 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302858826 Politics of the Race soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302863085
Public Opinion Poll from New York Times Siena College Poll

Mike Bost, the Republican candidate, has a modest lead in our poll.

48% ±4.7: Mike Bost (INCUMBENT)

39% ±4.7: Brendan Kelly (STATE’S ATTORNEY)
11%: Undecided

- Only 502 people responded of 31,418 calls made
- Margin of error: The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is nine points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate’s vote share.

But sampling error is not the only type of error in a poll.
- Reaching out to more people reduces margin of error.
- Source is Sienna College Poll a relatively reputable source regarding political polls
(“Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 12th District, Bost vs. Kelly” )

Interest Groups
- Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and nonprofit groups.
- The Congressional Leadership Fund(Located in Washington D.C.), a Republican super PAC, spent $3.6 million on media opposing Kelly through October
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee(Located in Washington D.C.) spent about $865,000 on media opposing Bost through November 3
- House Majority PAC spent $218,000 on ads opposing Bost as of September 19.

The group spent an additional $651,000 on ads opposing Bost in October

(“Illinois' 12th Congressional District Election, 2018”)
- Examples of opposition ads for Kelly and Bost are posted below for reference

Support for Trump in 2016 Presidential Election?
- Mike Bost: How often Bost votes in line with Trump's position - 98.9%
- How often Bost is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin - 88.7%
- Bost supported and continues to support President Trump
(“Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump")
- Trump had a rally with Bost on Saturday at Southern Illinois Airport in Murphysboro (Associated Press)

- Brendan Kelly: In an interview with The Southern, Kelly established his moderate platform — as an example he supports, at least in part, some of President Donald Trump’s push for increased security along the U.S. Mexico border (Smith).
- relatively bipartisan (Smith)

- Randy Auxier: Relatively leaned towards liberal views so does not completely agree with all of Trump's ideals

Endorsements
Mike Bost
- endorsed by National Rifle Association
- Republican Main Street Partnership
- Campaign for Working Families
- American Federation of Government Employees

Brendan Kelly
- endorsed by United Auto Workers
-New Democrat Coalition
- Sierra Club
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- League of Conservation Voters
- Council for a Livable World
- Communications Workers of America
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Illinois Sierra Club
- Planned Parenthood Illinois Action
- VoteVets.org
- End Citizens United
- Illinois AFL-CIO

Randy Auxier
- endorsed by Illinois Green Party

Issues
Mike Bost: Bost’s primary issues are creating jobs, controlling floods, and overturning the “Stream Buffer Rule,” which he blames for the loss of coal jobs in southern Illinois. These issues are mostly local. He also favors repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act; strengthening enforcement of immigration laws; simplifying the tax code; reducing government spending; privatizing Social Security and Medicare; and protecting the rights of gun owners. These issues are all national level concerns (Swingleft).

Brendan Kelly: Kelly’s issues are strengthening organized labor to rebuild infrastructure including bringing reliable internet access to everyone in the district, job creation, and protecting Scott Air Force Base. These issues are mostly local. He also supports the Affordable Healthcare Act and has advocated for stronger mental health and addiction services to combat the opioid epidemic, which has been a significant focus of his campaign. Kelly is also outspoken about getting money out of politics. These are more broad, national issues he addresses (Swingleft).

Randy Auxier:

Auxier said that people should vote for him because "[n]o one would own me and no one except the voters here could tell me what I should do." He said that both Bost and Kelly would work for their party bosses and large donors over the people. This is regarding to all issues in general.
Auxier criticized both Democrats' and Republicans' records in the district. He said the district hasn't seen significant progress either during the 22 years Democrats represented it in Congress or in the four years Bost has. This is a local issue.
Auxier emphasized his support for a single-payer universal healthcare system, saying it would mitigate the opioid crisis and create a more competitive workforce. This is a national issue.

(“Illinois' 12th Congressional District”)

]]> 2018-11-10 14:13:17 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302863085 Ad opposing Mike Bost soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302891418 2018-11-10 18:05:52 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302891418 Ad opposing Brendan Kelly soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302891524 2018-11-10 18:06:39 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302891524 My Prediction soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302896237 According to the research of facts that were accumulated through this project, it seems likely that Michael (Mike) Bost will win the Congressional seat for the 12th District of Illinois by a margin of about 5.0%. This is based on the mainly on the poll results from the New York Times Siena College Poll. The poll showed that
48% ±4.7: Mike Bost (INCUMBENT)

39% ±4.7: Brendan Kelly (STATE’S ATTORNEY)
11%: Undecided.
This poll was conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 22 which is relatively close to election day. Due to the margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 for each candidate, it is possible that Kelly may end up winning statistically. However, the chanced of Bost winning is much higher based on probability calculated with this poll. Furthermore, Brendan Kelly has maintained a rather bipartisan stance which has lost the support of many liberals in the district. Many of these liberals are upset with the middle ground Kelly desires to take and may end up voting for the more liberal Auxier or not vote at all. The outlier of the race is Murphysboro’s Randy Auxier, who is running as a Green Party candidate. Third parties typically draw criticism for splitting off votes from the two major parties. In the case of Greens, these votes are normally siphoned from the Democratic candidate. This can cause a candidate to win with less than a majority of the voters. All of these factors are working against the candidate Kelly. Furthermore, it is always more difficult for a first-time candidate to win the incumbent candidate which is Bost in this case. Incumbent members of the House seeking re-election are all but assured re-election. The re-election rate among all 435 members of the House has been as high as 98 percent in modern history, and it's rarely dipped below 90 percent (Murse).

However, there is the alternate perspective in the fact that the race has played out on two main fronts: the metro-east where Kelly has high name recognition as the St. Clair County State’s Attorney, and the southern part of the district, where Bost resides. Recently, Kelly’s camp early in the general election season began advertising in the southern part of the district to increase his name recognition. Therefore, Kelly's name may be better known to the citizens of the district leading to those who were undecided in the poll repose to vote for the possibly better known Kelly (Bustos).

]]> 2018-11-10 18:43:48 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302896237 Actual Election Results soychoi7 https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302898603 My prediction that Bost would win was correct.
Results:
Mike Bost* | Republican | 134,009 | 51.8%
Brendan Kelly | Democrat | 116,985 | 45.2%
Randy Auxier | Green | 7,823 | 3.0%
258,817 votes, 100% reporting (649 of 649 precincts)

The margin of difference between Bost and Kelly was a bit higher than I expected though as it was 6.6% in the results. I had predicted the difference to be about 5.0%. The details regarding county breakdown can be found in the article from New York Times below.

Thank you for taking the time to look over this comprehensive election analysis for the Congressional 12th District of Illinois!]]> 2018-11-10 19:02:26 UTC https://padlet.com/soychoi7/t7vozzs05d2/wish/302898603