Nicaragua's Sandinistas—Brooker's Calculus of Party Regime Usurpation by Nelson Calles - CPO

Introduction

ncalles244_ — 2023-11-08 00:50:23 UTC

In Brooker's chapter on Party Regimes in his book Non-democratic Regimes: Theory, Government and Politics, he proposes an adaptation to Finer's calculus to the usurpation of power of military regimes and adapts this calculus for single-party regimes.

The calculus follows as such:

Motives
1. Ideological Interest
2. Organizational (Party) Interest
3. Class interest
4. Social (ethnic) interest
5. Individual self-interest
Means
1. Electoral misappropriation of power
2. Revolutionary seizure of power
Opportunity
1. Weakening of state
2. War of liberation
3. Process of decolonization
Inhibiting Motives
1. Belief in Democracy

To test Brooker's new calculus, I will be analyzing the case study of the Nicaraguan FSLN party or the Sandinistas.

I will be watching a documentary published by Al Jazeera English and available on Youtube when formulating my calculus:

Part 1:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpEhi9XYllA

Part 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URdzoDrp-Ss

Part 3:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxCImH9ZOq0

Part 4:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2lBOPvMWqc&t=416s

Personal Thoughts:

ncalles244_ — 2023-12-03 18:45:58 UTC

In the Central American Crisis, the Sandinistas forever characterize and carry the popular imagination. In a region that was riped with corrupt government, military regimes, and foreign interventions, there was a single moment when a popular movement escalated into fully overthrowing its regime.

In the Central America, Nicaragua simultaneously had the worst regime and the best success story, which is likely why the Sandinistas are so enigmatic. Perhaps this is also why the devolution of the Sandinistas under the Ortega leadership into authoritarianism becomes all the more depressing. For very long, the Sandinistas were the hope of the region, serving as the hope for popular resistance in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. Now they are a sober reminder that it will take more than a simple coup d'etat to fix the crippling issues of a Third World nation.

Brooker's Calculus

ncalles244_ — 2023-12-03 18:59:55 UTC

Motives
- Ideological- The Sandinistas were a "big-tent" party to begin with. Nonetheless, within this movement there were many socialist, Marxist, and nationalist factions who were united in their cause of toppling the Somoza regime and expelling American imperialist influence. The main accusation charged against the Somoza regime was that it was undemocratic, and so a baseline demand for the Sandinistas was to introduce political pluralism and a socialist mixed economy to Nicaragua, seeing this as the best way forward for Nicaragua. Like the Cuban Revolution, the Sandinista Revolution saw revolutionaries rely on nationalism as an ideological foundation.
- Class interest- The Sandinista rank-and-file was based in the Nicaraguan peasantry, with bases in the Nicaraguan urban working class. There was this divide between the Nicaraguan poor and the Somoza regime. Nonetheless, the Sandinistas many times worked together with the business elites and middle classes of Nicaragua to achieve their goals.
Means
1. Revolutionary Seizure of Power: Not only was in the belief of the Sandinistas that the Somoza regime offered no democratic outlets, and much of this was true, but this belief was also generally supported by the Nicaraguan masses. With a combination of mass protests, general strikes, and guerrilla warfare, the Sandinistas chipped at the Somoza government, until the Somozas resigned and fled in exile.
Opportunity
1. War of liberation- "Long Live the People's Revolution" was the rallying call of the Sandinistas. Relying on the strategy of the Cuban revolutionaries, the Sandinistas saw a guerrilla war as the best war of basing their support within the Nicaraguan masses and simultaneously engaging the state in war. In Marxist theory, this is referred as "dual power," where revolutionaries form a new state within the current state apparatus which will gain the support of the masses.
2. Weakening of the state- Not only did the Sandinistas weaken the state with its guerrilla warfare, the human rights abuses of the Somoza regime caused foreign powers, like the United States, to revoke their support for the regime, which was the main source of power for the regime in Nicaragua.
Inhibiting Motives
1. Belief in Democracy- Of course, waging a guerrilla war is inherently undemocratic. However, to the benefit of the Sandinistas, their opponent was also undemocratic. Furthermore, the Sandinistas were promising political pluralism and democracy in their fight against the Somoza regime, which aided against this inhibiting motive.