Scoping IPY-5 by

Guiding Questions:

ulfjonsell — 2026-09-28 08:26:07 UTC

What observations are missing today?
What observations could realistically become possible by 2032–33?
Which scientific questions could only be answered through new observing capabilities?
Where could Sweden make a distinctive contribution?

Guiding Questions:

ulfjonsell — 2026-09-28 08:40:32 UTC

Which critical linkages remain poorly understood?
Are there knowledge gaps within the components that prevent understanding linkages?
What transformative understanding could be achieved by 2034?
Which questions require international coordination at IPY scale?
Where are Sweden’s strongest opportunities to contribute?

What are the most urgent questions about people and polar change?

ulfjonsell — 2026-09-28 08:48:41 UTC

What are the most urgent questions about people and polar change?
What perspectives and knowledge are needed to better understand human dimensions of polar change and how can we work towards including these?
What new forms of knowledge integration could be achieved by 2032–33?
Where could Sweden make a distinctive contribution?

Guiding Questions:

ulfjonsell — 2026-09-28 08:49:51 UTC

What predictive capabilities are missing today?
What may become predictable by 2032–33?
Which advances would represent a step-change in forecasting and scenarios?
Where could Swedish expertise contribute internationally?

Guiding Questions:

ulfjonsell — 2026-09-28 08:52:30 UTC

What should be the next actions for the scientific community?
What needs to happen beyond the scientific community?
Which communities need to be brought together that are not working together today?
How can momentum be maintained between now and IPY 2032-33?

What observations are missing today?

2026-09-29 07:01:39 UTC

Robust in-situ time series data over multiple seasons/years.

Which critical linkages remain poorly understood?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:05:08 UTC

Are there knowledge gaps within the components that prevent understanding linkages?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:05:47 UTC

Leverage technological advances to obtain more observations of presently hard to observe quantities

2026-09-29 07:06:07 UTC

e.g. using drones, autonomous systems

e.g. for mapping subglacial topography

Start the time series now

2026-09-29 07:06:40 UTC

Identify key long-term monitoring sites and topics now, so that meaningful timeseries exist by the IPY. Either establishing new or expanding/maintaining existing ones.

Where could Sweden make a distinctive contribution?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:06:43 UTC

Secure existing measurment infrastructure

2026-09-29 07:10:19 UTC

Provide a new life-line for existing measurment infrastructure by upgrading instrumentation and coordinating long-term responsibilities, i.e. permafrost boreholes

Work to include Sweden as formal collaborator in other international efforts

2026-09-29 07:10:37 UTC

In addition to being the lead on a few targeted "Swedish Polar IPY-Flagships", it would be good to also work towards formalized Swedish partnerships in other international initiatives. This can help Swedish co-PIs to acquire funding.

What infrastructure would make this possible?

2026-09-29 07:10:47 UTC

Use traditional knowledge and citizen science for a broader observational/data network for sub-Arctic regions.

Collect and reuse existing data

2026-09-29 07:10:51 UTC

With advances in AI, it is possible to extract new knowledge from existing data.

For this, we need easy-to-use and robust platforms to collect data from researchers and process it into common formats.

What transformative understanding could be achieved by 2034

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:10:57 UTC

Damage in ice, fracturation

2026-09-29 07:11:29 UTC

Which questions require international understanding could be achieved by 2034?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:12:01 UTC

Where are Sweden's strongest opportunities to contribute?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 07:12:46 UTC

What could we know and what observations are needed

2026-09-29 07:12:55 UTC

Better knowledge about how change (environmental, climate, societal, etc.) and variability impacts society, in particular local communities in the Arctic.

Utilize local knowledge - indigenous and other local peoples - for making observations on change and how it impacts society, e.g. the daily lives of people.

Emerging ecosystems and their functions

tobiapoliti — 2026-09-29 07:13:30 UTC

What should be the next step for the Swedish polar research community?

2026-09-29 07:14:15 UTC

SPRS, VR and Formas explore a dedicated IPY funding (especially for ECRs) line and shared infrastructure, such as an instrument pool and data services.

Future meteorological satellites during IPY

AbhayDevasthale — 2026-09-29 07:15:06 UTC

Hi all, I would like to underline the relevance of new and upcoming meteorological satellites that could provide high temporal resolution and vertical information on temperature and humidity during the IPY. I am thinking mainly about EUMETSAT’s EPS-Sterna constellation of microsatellites that will be launched in 2029 and will run through 2042. Six satellites with sounders will be orbiting the Earth at any given time. Monitoring atmospheric thermodynamics during warm air instrusions, polar lows and cold-air outbreaks during the IPY V etc would be possible at higher temporal resolution with EPS-Sterna.

https://www.smhi.se/nyheter/nyheter/2026-01-29-dags-att-forverkliga-det-nya-satellitprogrammet-eps-sterna

There will also be new satellites such as MTG-S and EPS-SG A and B series that would add synergy here. With regard to Swedish perspective/contribution, the involvement of SMHI in these satellite programs could be leveraged to complement other Swedish observing systems.

Sensors on polar connect

2026-09-29 07:15:13 UTC

More open science

2026-09-29 07:15:27 UTC

Need to debate how we share, observations, data, and so on

Leverage existing datasets!

2026-09-29 07:15:32 UTC

We tend to collect new data all the time, but maybe we should think about what happens to all the data that isn't processed and just ends up in the freezer until the PI retires.

Sweden could contribute a smaller number of high tech scientifically comprehensive reference sites embedded in international observing networks.

2026-09-29 07:17:18 UTC

Interdisciplinary research across the interfaces

2026-09-29 07:17:33 UTC

What would make this innovative?

2026-09-29 07:17:50 UTC

Synchronised measurements around the continent. Several nations measure ice-shelf melt at the same time and with the same methods, across different cavity types (cold Dronning Maud Land, warm Amundsen, the Ross Sea). Nobody has a circumpolar snapshot of melt measured in place today.

Advance observational data interpretation and analysis: extract new variables from existing data

2026-09-29 07:18:17 UTC

For example, in glaciology we can extract more fields from ground-penetrating radar (beyond ice thickness) such as basal thermal conditions, ice deformation etc.

Plan infrastructure for the data/AI capabilities of 2030s.

2026-09-29 07:18:51 UTC

Polar Earth Observations data and AI capabilities will increase enormously before IPY. Current possibilities were unimaginable 6-12 months ago and 'advancements' will continue. Sweden could prepare with providing storage/cloud computing.

Balance between support to existing monitoring and novel observations

2026-09-29 07:19:38 UTC

1. It is important that current observational networks retain support, so that new efforts do not starve resources from existing ones.

Distinct, and different, strategies are needed for planning of long-term monitoring (should not be driven by universities) and individual campaigns (can be driven by universities/research institutes)

3. When analyzing where to put new observational infrastructure, the perspective must be fully international (to avoid observing parameters which another country is already measuring in given place)

Available satellite products

2026-09-29 07:20:21 UTC

Satellite data should be better exploited. In 2033 there will be much more observations, and also instruments making new types of observations. AI will strongly improve the data extraction. In particular, there will be systems to integrate all observations into a super-product (as explored presently at ECMWF, by AI-DOP)

For Sweden, the Sterna constellation is of particular interest.

Participatory and citizen science contributions for observations

2026-09-29 07:22:11 UTC

Research vessels and stations could be supplemented with other platforms, e.g. cruise ships, fishing boats and small sailing tour operators, for additional direct observations or scientists access to the environment. In Sailing4science, a UN Oceandecade project this has been started to be explored with aspects of safety, liability, quality and added values, and discussed with different countries Polar institutes.

Transdisciplinary sampling campaigns

2026-09-29 07:23:47 UTC

It is important to continue the tradition of expeditions that collect coupled observations of Atmosphere, Terrestrial and Marine environments.

E.g. Oden/ice-breaker expeditions of specific target regions (NW Greenland?), which includes a strong land-based component.

Dynamics of the polar Earth system in the past, present and future

2026-09-29 07:30:24 UTC

One important linkage I think is missing is a (temporal) dimension on how climate change, permafrost dynamics, glacier dynamicsm, sea-level change, etc, drive Arctic biodiversity. In the ICARP IV Research Priority Team 2 report, both palaeoenvironmental records and genetic and genomic data are highlighted as important, but there’s actually very little connecting the two. With modern-day envirinmental DNA data combined wth palaeogenomics and sedimentary DNA, we can now directly look at how Arctic species and entire ecosystems have responded to previous periods of rapid climate change. And I think this is also an area where Sweden has particularly strong expertise and could make a distinctive contribution to IPY. I would be interested in knowing if others here in this meeting would be interested in working towards this.

IPY as a step stone for young scientists

henriktornberg — 2026-09-29 07:31:44 UTC

Last IPY had many prodjects in low arctic (Swedish mountains). This was a good opportunity to use the IPY to incoporporate phd students and even master degree students. Good that in is not only hard accessible high polar projects.

Dual-use, geopolitics etc.

2026-09-29 07:37:17 UTC

This needs to be studied also by social scientists, historians etc, how have we dealt with it and how can we understand the landscape

Involve modelers in the planning of observations so that they are made in such a way that they are useful and can be used to improve models with predictive capabilities for the environment on time-scales useful for society

2026-09-29 07:38:32 UTC

Permits for (semi-)autonomous observational platforms

2026-09-29 07:40:51 UTC

While working to develop new AI-driven drones etc., there needs to be a parallel process to ensure permits or international laws to enable deployment of these systems.

Arctic states are unlikely to allow other actors to place infrastructures without full insight into how they work.

Cocreation opportunities for indigenous rights holders for Arctic observations

2026-09-29 07:41:39 UTC

How can Sweden ensure these opportunities in the planning and execution of IPY?

Targeted in situ data collection for validation of remote sensing datasets

2026-09-29 07:54:52 UTC

Develop research methodological framework to improve integration of observations

2026-09-29 07:55:27 UTC

A lot of research cannot be integrated because similar research uses different methodologies. Having clear frameworks would allow better integration of data across scales and disciplines

What are some key unanswered Big Questions in polar climate science--in the physical, biological, or cross-cutting domains?

rodrigocaballero3 — 2026-09-29 08:00:07 UTC

Plan Oden flagship expeditions on Terrestrial-Atmosphere-Marine

2026-09-29 08:02:02 UTC

Combined observations of coupled systems to address "grand challenges" (Sea Level Rise contributions form Northern Greenland; Coupled biogeochemical cycles at the intersection of cryosphere/biosphere/hydrosphere.).

Combine Oden with terrestrially based expeditions as well as other vessels which complement the Icebreaker.

What questions do we agree we want to answer?

2026-09-29 08:03:26 UTC

What is our goal? The big questions? Is it climate, sea level rise or soemthing else? The sake of knowledge expanded? I feel we should agree on this before moving on observations required for it.

Sweden could establish local Polar Marine Robotic Observatories at strategic process hotspots. Each would integrate interacting robotic and fixed systems from the surface to the seafloor. While geographically constrained, together they could reveal and predict large-scale polar processes, with site selection and data products designed to avoid compromising naval operations.

2026-09-29 08:06:52 UTC

Stratospheric balloon program

2026-09-29 08:25:51 UTC

A stratospheric balloon program similar to Match Campaigns (IPY2007-2008) but for meteoric and re-entry particles would unlock new knowledge of the atmospheric effects of re-entry

EISCAT_3D

2026-09-29 08:29:07 UTC

EISCAT_3D will be the world leading atmospheric radar system in the Arctic and is a landmark on the ESFRI roadmap within environmental sciences. Sweden is in the lead. EISCAT_3D is not only designed to investigate how the Earth’s atmosphere is coupled to space, but it will also be suitable for a wide range of other scientific targets including climate change, space weather, plasma physics, space debris and near-Earth object studies. Commissioning of the radar system is delayed (as compared to the timeline in the link above). First light with limited capability is expected during 2027 and the radar system will then be scaled up to full operation during the coming years. This fits perfectly with the ramp up towards IPY. The radar system is expected to be fully operational well ahead of 2032. Sweden should together with Norway and Finland suggest and finance continuous observations as part of IPY and support coordinated Nordic supporting/complementary ground-based observations leveraging the Nordic geophysical observatories (based in Kiruna, Tromsö, Sodankylä) as well as campaigns making use of sounding rockets and stratospheric balloons. This will produce unique data sets to address space waste, auroral dynamics, vertical coupling in the polar atmosphere etc.

Network of meteor trail radars

2026-09-29 08:31:02 UTC

A chain of meteor trail radars along a meridional line connecting Northern Sweden and southern Germany to investigate atmospheric dynamics (much already exists in the north and south - but nothing in the middle) would provide data for many research goals, for example it could provide the first observations of how the turbulent energy spectrum scaling relation changes at different scales

Integrated obbservations

2026-09-29 08:32:46 UTC

Overall we need to integrate observations from the different spheres. E.g., lack of terrestrial and atmosphere observations to complement those in the southern oceans. But basically everywhere...

Which critical linkages remain poorly understood?

2026-09-29 08:40:28 UTC

The linkage between global societal processes of change – economic and political – and other processes of change that influence the polar regions.

Are there knowledge gaps?

2026-09-29 08:42:26 UTC

We need a better understanding of the combined effects in the polar regions of climate and environmental change on one hand, and economic and political trends on the other, on environments and societies.

What transformative understanding could be achieved by 2034?

2026-09-29 08:48:56 UTC

Understanding processes of change as interconnected and interdependent - they do not exist in isolation, nor in one sector alone.

Where are Sweden's strongest opportunities to contribute?

2026-09-29 08:50:07 UTC

Sweden has built an impressive capacity to work across the natural science-social science and humanities divide since the last IPY. This puts us in a unique position to take lead in building international consortia that can explore how cumulative impacts from climate change and economic-political change influence the polar regions.

Understanding connections, change and consequences of IPYs and similar initiatives in the context of global geopolitics

2026-09-29 08:50:37 UTC

Histories of IPYs and what they can and cannot achieve, understanding if and how they can be transformative.

What predictive capabilities are we missing today?

2026-09-29 08:51:40 UTC

What may become predictable by 2032-33?

2026-09-29 08:52:01 UTC

Which advances would represent a step-change in forecasting and scenarios?

2026-09-29 08:52:29 UTC

Where could Swedish expertise contribute internationally?

2026-09-29 08:52:55 UTC

How do we work with decision support?

2026-09-29 08:54:01 UTC

What are the most urgent questions about people and polar change?

johannamaard1 — 2026-09-29 08:55:38 UTC

What perspectives and knowledge are needed to better understand human dimensions of polar change and how can we work towards including these?

johannamaard1 — 2026-09-29 08:56:37 UTC

What new forms of knowledge integration could be achieved by 2032-33?

johannamaard1 — 2026-09-29 08:57:09 UTC

Where could Sweden make a distinctive contribution?

johannamaard1 — 2026-09-29 08:57:31 UTC

Argo floats, use Polar IN and existing infrastructure to invite other nations too for fruitful collaborations

2026-09-29 09:25:47 UTC

Make open data easily accessible - for example, skip registration requirements

2026-09-29 09:27:08 UTC

henriktornberg — 2026-09-29 09:28:48 UTC

IPY-5 could also be used to connect to past IPYs, perhaps by using old or abandoned stations to temporarily increase capacity, while also connecting to previously collected data. Thinking of Kinnvika, Snow Hill, Pårte Observatory and other places.

How to better include indigenous peoples working on these topics in the early planning of IPY and similar?

2026-09-29 10:24:44 UTC

Seems that there is a lack of indigeneous perspective to talk about this topic already in this meeting, how to improve that?

henriktornberg — 2026-09-29 11:22:03 UTC

We should already, at an early stage, start thinking about how to reach out to society through several channels: film, TV, TikTok, radio and others. We should also think about how to break through media bubbles and reach people who are not actively searching for this kind of knowledge.

AI as a wild card - can we even estimate what capabilities we will have within the next decade?

2026-09-29 11:49:30 UTC

AI advancing at an extreme pace - it seems extremely difficult to say what capabilities we will have in the near future, and thus how it influences our science

Which advances....

2026-09-29 12:00:35 UTC

Building on Themes 1 and 2, Sweden could develop a Polar Marine Digital Twin that combines observations from small robotic observatories at selected process hotspots (land/ocean) with remote sensing and larger-scale observations. The individual observatories would operate locally, but measurements and experiments could be synchronized between sites. This would allow us to compare how different polar systems respond to similar forcing or extreme events, without operating autonomous systems over large areas where safety and security may become an issue. The digital twin could then be used to examine how well the processes observed at these hotspots can improve regional and larger-scale models. AI could help identify patterns and gaps in the observations and, together with the models, help decide what should be measured or tested next. IPY 2032–33 would provide an excellent opportunity to test whether this combination of intensive networked local observations and large-scale modelling can improve our ability to understand and forecast polar marine change.

Who will rule the data? Transparency and reproducibility of research at stake.

henninglorenz1 — 2026-09-29 12:08:16 UTC

We need to make sure that the baseline for all research remains is well structured and properly described data (rich metadata). Else we will lose two pillars in our research -transparency and reproducibility. (Humans have to understand the data at all points.) International data research infrastructures have been working on the problem for years, defining data and metadata standards in thematic communities ("data types") and approaches for harmonisation and data integration across the latter (e.g. EPOS DCAT-AP was recognised as a standard for data and service integration across the Earth and Environmental Sciences domain in Europe). Define standards now, get new data into shape directly, work backwards through legacy according to resources (maybe IPY can help).

Advanced....

2026-09-29 12:26:02 UTC

By 2032–33, AI and modelling will be much more advanced than today. Sweden could prepare for this by developing a network of small, intelligent and largely self-contained polar observatories, somewhat similar to the small autonomous sensor concepts (sensor eggs) now being developed in space science. These could be placed on land, at the seafloor and in the water column, each monitoring its local environment with its own sensors, power supply and onboard AI. Rather than continuously producing and transmitting huge amounts of data, the AI could decide what information is important and when it needs to be transferred. The individual observatories would remain local, but would be synchronized as one network and feed their information into a larger Polar Digital Twin. The data should be openly available, which also means that the system must be designed from the beginning so that its operation and public data products do not create safety or security problems. This could be a very interesting Swedish contribution to IPY: small high-tech observing systems, built and tested in Sweden, that together provide the data needed for the AI and modelling systems of the future.

An open consultation to identify "Swedish IPY flagships"

2026-09-29 12:29:36 UTC

Could the Polar research secretariate lead a process for the community to propose (with short pitches) themes for IPY flagships?

A good Flagship project could be e.g.:

-Question-driven

-Address question of global relevance

-Include research activities that span from data-collection, via process-understanding to model development and projections/forecasting

-Make use of existing or planned Swedish infrastructures (for observations AND modeling)

Build efficient code rather than relying on the increased infrastructure capacity that may stop

2026-09-29 12:29:45 UTC

We have to be very careful in the sovereignty of our infrastructure and envisage future regulations and resources in the process (they might change). Engineer could be hired working on that.

Advanced

2026-09-29 12:30:14 UTC

One additional point as just mentioned in the discussion: the AI in these individual observatories would of course need to be trained before deployment. This is where the scientists come in. Researchers from the relevant disciplines could train the Sensor-X AI with existing data, models and, importantly, their own process knowledge. AI alone will not solve the problem. The interesting step is to combine expert knowledge with AI so that each observatory knows what to look for, what may be unusual and what information is worth transmitting. By 2032–33, we can hopefully also expect AI agents to be considerably safer and more reliable than today. Otherwise, we may have bigger problems than polar observing.

Swedish contribution

2026-09-29 12:41:42 UTC

Following my comment on military technology: an interesting Swedish contribution could be to bring some of the technological strengths that have made Sweden internationally competitive in defence, space and autonomous systems into environmental monitoring. Saab is an obvious example: Sweden has developed very advanced capabilities in sensors, autonomous underwater systems, communication and system integration. Could some of this expertise be brought together with Swedish polar science and AI to develop a new generation of small autonomous environmental observatories? This would be a very different application: local systems designed from the beginning for open scientific data and to avoid safety and security conflicts. For a small country, demonstrating that the same high-tech competence can make Sweden internationally leading in environmental observation could be a unique contribution to IPY.

Which communities need to be brought together?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 13:14:22 UTC

How can momentum be maintained?

annawahlin3 — 2026-09-29 13:14:49 UTC

Secure funding for 24/7 operation of EISCAT 3D for the entire IPY and also campaign/upgrade/operating funds for complementary instruments

2026-09-29 13:18:07 UTC

We would need to develop and design an "everything mode" that can create a world unique radar data set for an entire year with the worlds most advanced radar of its kind - this would be a goldmine in terms of research data, and if we then also add supplementary systems in there - upgrading supplementary systems or funding their operations as well during the IPY - the dataset would just become so much more valuable for researchers of many fields

Something like this probably needs its own working group but it also needs a funding commitment from e.g. VR

What should be the next actions for the scientific community

2026-09-29 13:19:55 UTC

Establish / mobilise international networks for building IPY projects and look for funding

Cooperate with other IPY committees on arranging match-making events for IPY projects

Can Antarctica InSync supersites play a role during IPY?

2026-09-29 13:21:59 UTC

In my mind, the InSync supersites are another form of expression to identify "flagship" sites. InSync leads IPY with 3-5 years - but perhaps designation as an Antarctic supersite, one of which could include the area in which Swedish researchers operate in Dronning Maud Land, could be a good basis to take these forward as a IPY flagship site.

Working groups

2026-09-29 13:25:05 UTC

Creating a topical group focusing on an instrumentation/research topic/phenomena/etc that can drive the needs for that group to achieve their goals can be vital to maintain momentum. For example such a group can outline more specifically what kind of funding needs to be secured, what communities need to collaborate and how to plan out activities during the IPY - these groups can be managed by the IPY org itself maybe? and something as simple as an email list and meetings every now and then until more concrete actions are avalible could be good

A need to define clear goals and role of Sweden in IPY before making further decisions

2026-09-29 13:26:04 UTC

To me it sounds that a lot is linked to linking policies and science but it would be nice to be clear from the start. It could lead to the design of a similar tool as starfish barometer or something else relevant to our topics.