• Europe - overall optimism for the economy

  • https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/an-update-on-european-consumer-sentiment

  • which would signify increase consumer spending

• USA

  • Expected increase in consumer growth as 30% of americans say they're better off financially

  • https://finance.yahoo.com/video/consumer-spending-grow-6-2025-170335818.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANHlBPGKq8NeShqIIVrzPwlJf8-3meC940IgvjDtMcJ7kKcHgStzAooAZ9e3wuA1dsmlKgJIwcb0TLpN8805AHQkDGhm4B7QpcyI7bHHTOiRfFyeBXY22LmjIeF-8pLcB_ejpFQxk6kmZOARu6r1OL8m1bqL2nuTTIFn3tFji2yF

  • main downside risks are middle east complications and the election

  • https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/the-us-consumer-will-remain-a-pillar-of-strength/

  • https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2024/nielseniq-mid-year-consumer-outlook/

• China

  • demographic change with aging creates economic worry

  • 
    

• India

  • 
    

• Different than regular AI, regular just simultes human intel and problem solving

• Generative AI creates new content and ideas, conversations, stories, images etc

• language modeling

  • making predictions based on language

  
  

In the fashion chain

• mood boarding, research, concept idea generation

• sizing and fit issues for e-commerce - minimizing returns

• virtual assistance

• product description writing

• operational and organisational through front and backend

MARKETING

• focussing on BRAND instead of PERFORMANCE

  • due to the consumer need to feel an attachment with the brand due to tight spending

  • includes anything emotionally bonding - influencer, sport partnership, collaborations

  • creative director selection

  • includes experiential

BULLWHIP EFFECT

• changes in consumer demand escalate across the value chain

• slight changes get larger down the operation chain

• production effects

  • demand volatility leading to reshoring or neashoring - production is coming home baby

    • not cheaper but safer and more sustainable

Luxury vs non luxury international growth - all quite low numbers except china is showing decrease in luxury growth

Super Winners - Nike drops to 3, inditex to 2,

Differentiation in 2025

• Localization in different ways from marketing differences and product

• Friend-shoring - trading in balance with political alignment

• Near-shoring - NEAR

Global Economy

• asias new growth engines

  • china deceleration

    • new challenges with domestic competition but international is still growing due to localization

    • outdoor brand growth is still quite large

    • Luxury shaming could show growth in quiet luxury and shift in class chinese consumer goods

  • india focus for growth

    • up 54 pts on growth

    • expected to become 4th largest economy in the world by 2027

    • non luxury is pushed by middle class who are open to international brands

    • young population

    • fastest growing ultra high net worth population as well

    • challenges

    • infrastructure - high quality realestate, last mile delivery

    • local consumer dynamics - cultural influences on fashion making it important to localize - can be a pain, overall local branad preffference with consumers still

    • regulatory requirements - regional taxes

  • japaaaan

    • Growing market because of tax free and that the yen is really cheap

    • The Gaisho

GLOBAL ECONOMY SUMMARY -

Biggest takeaway - just because there isnt growth, doesnt mean that it is less important. This is seen in China and many places. Everything is coming back to home land as well, this is clear with geo political issues. Overall slow down and more conciousness, with quality, quiet luxury, usable pieces, and just less in general. Time to get smart. Consumers are becoming more aware, and countries are getting more tight with their globalization.

consumers say there is toooo much volume of choice and also that online search is a barrier to purchase rather than a tool - starts with consumer behavior and strategy adjusts from there

• brands responding by narrowing offer

• using generative AI to tailor to consumer for PRODUCT DISCOVERY

• AI assistant searching and personal helper

  • in China its called wenwen

New industry innovations

• Daydream - highly specified search engine

• capsule - image searching with 99% effectiveness

• constructor - another tailored search engine

Social commerce

• tiktok will be big on social

• Pinterest will start

SILVER SPENDERS

• birth rates dropping, people getting older

• it will get harder for brands to drive growth from just younger consumers as they have less and less spending power

• priorities

  • experiences

  • not trend driven

  • practicality

  • shop in store - multibrand retailers - not department

multi-generational marketing

• understanding visible, psychological, and lifestyle ages as different things

• how to connect to all of them simultaneously

• AGE INCLUSIVITY

VALUE SHIFT

• trading down

  • going for the more affordable option, even within dupes etc

  • search for the cheapest price

  • resale and pre owned

  • not even just economic pressure but they are logically thinking smarter with spending on fashion

  • think about all those tiktok alternative videos

• Getting much more specific overall, more niche and specified after so much overload on information

• Generation Alpha

• Normalizing buying fakes

Healthspan Plans

• people are spending and investing more in things that improve longevity and future self

• Applied to Fashion

  • wellness, beauty, and health

  • multifunctional brands with a psychical activities component

    • hoka, lulu, alo etc

  • digital health accessories

SUPPLY CHAIN

SUSTAINABILITY

INDSUTRY CHALLENGES

MARKETING

• shift into simplicity, but striking deeper in individuality

  • https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/marketing-pr/why-menswear-needs-a-marketing-refresh/

• INDIVIDUALITY

• creative storytelling over performance

  • https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/marketing-pr/the-state-of-fashion-2024-report-brand-marketing-strategy-community-building/

• 
  

• Adds to the experience

  • adds to brand loyalty and community

• what needs to happen

  • retail staff incentives and opportunities to grow

  • workshops and chances to empower sales tools

  • training in new crm technology like apps to help increase client relationship

    • also can pay on the spot to make a seamless transaction

  • RFID - inventory management, seamless experience, self checkout, replenishment, counterfeiting

  • blockchain - product tracking and transparency

Marketplaces disrupted

• online marketplaces are seeing difficulties due to saturation

• need on and off line

Sportswear showdown

• its no longer the big 4 brands

  • new brands are taking significant market share

• growth - supposed to grow twice as much as luxury

  • trend of health and wellness

  • collaborating and blending of fashion and activewear

  • its now accepted and obivously way more comfortable

• increase in particpation and sports tourism

inventory excellence

• addressing excess stock and stock-outs

• technology to make more agile - can adjust

• producing to demand is the key although its harder to predict towards demand because trends change so quick now

• unpredictable seasonality - who knows what the weatehr is gonna be

• lengthy supply chains - complex routing of goods because touchpionts makes diffierent flexbility

• product and channel complexity - omni channel also means that u need products in more places at once than ever

• platfforms

  • aso9, nextail, blue yonder all atomate prodcesses from demand forecasting to inventory allocation

• dynamic open to buy adjustments

  • test and react / on demand enable mid season buying to tailor inventory

Sustainability collective

• fragmentation of suppliers and brands

• disconnect between consumer actions and values

  • behavior attitude gap

    • https://corporate.zalando.com/en/our-impact/sustainability/sustainability-reports/attitude-behavior-gap-report

• reporting

  • uptream and downstream scopes

    • fuel and eenergy related activities (scope 3) is most difficult

  • fail to involve suppliers in sustainability intiiative

• brands are doing less for sustainabilty because consumers dont care as much

  • https://learn.istitutomarangoni.com/ultra/courses/_557782_1/outline/file/_16799591_1

• need to

  • consolidate and partner on strategic commitments

  • embrace long term commitments to suppliers

  • collectively address - everyone has to or nobody will due to natural competition

• 
  

Trend Brainstorm

• Sourcing coming back local 

  • Due to geo political conflicts

  • Trade barriers and supply chain disruption

  • Increase in chinese production and huge increase in transportation

  • Naershoring has remained flat in US and europe since 2019 due to manufacturing capacity capabilities 

    • But this will change due to investments and government incentives 

  • 
    

  • Term 2 class 1 presentation

SOURCING TRENDS

• Geo political

• Consumer preference

OVERALL - bringing things home 

From global to local due to socio - political 

Focus hiustory globalisation 

Conscious consumption - from sustainable to just cutting back on

Localisation from consumer side - consumer preferences, political impacts 

Localisation from business side - 

• Reshoring - bringing production home

• Nearshoring - supply chain strategy - having things faster, mitigating risks

Degrowth - consumer skepticism, conscious consumption, not as much emphasis on sustainability but rather just buying less

FINALIZED TRENDS:

LOCALISATION OF COMMUNICATION

LOCALISATION OF PRODUCTION

DEGROWTH IN FASHION

Although consumer optimism is predicted to rise, spending in the fashion industry is still stagnant, therefore making it even more important to personally connect with the consumer. With high predictions for the indsutry to grow, it is important to make these personal connections now to take advantage when the growth is here:

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/state-of-fashion#/

"To reach these consumers, executives told us they will localize their go-to-market models"

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/an-update-on-european-consumer-sentiment

Ad overload and its turnoff for the consumer:

https://es.rokt.com/blog/unlocking-the-joy-of-online-shopping-the-power-of-relevance/

1. Slow down of performance marketing with more funding going into brand marketing, specifically storytelling and consumer connection:

https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/marketing-pr/the-state-of-fashion-2024-report-brand-marketing-strategy-community-building/

2. Pursuing individuality in menswear to connect with specific consumers:

   https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/marketing-pr/the-state-of-fashion-2024-report-brand-marketing-strategy-community-building/

3. Size and assortment integration is the topline (this has great examples):

   https://www.datasciencecentral.com/the-importance-of-assortment-localization-and-size-localization-in-fashion-leveraging-data-science-for-fashion-localization/

4. The deeper connection need is cultural integration and understand the appropriate way to communicate a brand to specific audiences

   https://locaria.com/global-marketing-and-localization-trends-in-2024/

5. Highlight on consumer expectations through the drum survey respondents: 65% expect local messaging from major size companies

   https://www.thedrum.com/open-mic/why-national-brands-need-a-new-approach-to-local-marketing#:~:text=3.)&text=With%20people%20feeling%20more%20connected,its%20messaging%20and%20engage%20consumers.

6. Emphasis on community and the flywheel as put by mckinsey:

   https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/a-better-way-to-build-a-brand-the-community-flywheel

7. How luxury companies are doing this:

   https://croud.com/en-gb/resources/the-power-of-localisation-for-luxury-brands/

   
   

With this trend, I am explaining how production is coming back to the brands origin country. This is also called reshoring and is the opposite of globalization. I will cover why this is happening due to macroeconomic factors and political tension. 

Definition of localisation of manufacturing: and why

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257495764_Localization_of_Manufacturing_-_A_Systematic_Framework

The article defines manufacturing localization as the strategic decision to situate manufacturing operations close to key markets, suppliers, or innovation hubs. This contrasts with globalization, where production is spread across various low-cost regions.

Reasons a company might localize manufacturing, based on the article:

• To reduce lead times and improve responsiveness to local markets.
  
  

• To better align with regional customer needs.
  
  

• To mitigate risks in global supply chains.
  
  

• To meet local content regulations or sustainability goals.

RESHORING

https://www.theinterline.com/2025/03/07/reshoring-fashion-can-geopolitics-move-the-needle-where-sustainability-didnt/

Talks about how reshoring is unclear and isnt scalable but how geo politics might force it

https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/documents/2024/localising-supply-chains-and-its-impact-on-performance.pdf

Performance impact 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/06/uk-manufacturing-fashion-boss-champions-reshoring

Interview with uk brand owner talking about his journey and benefits on production reshoring to the UK especially during the pandemic and what it does for the local economy and job creation

https://www.voguebusiness.com/companies/fashions-reshoring-rush-why-now-and-for-how-long

PVH chief supply chain officer on reshoring due to sudden political impacts on production in ethiopia

“Three-quarters of fashion companies surveyed by McKinsey see shipping disruptions as the greatest threat to flexibility and speed. Seventy-one per cent say they are looking to increase nearshoring by 2025 — bringing manufacturing sites closer to their consumer market — and 24 per cent say they are planning to reshore manufacturing to the same country of operation as the brand, according to McKinsey.”

SUPPLY CHAIN FACTOR INFLUENCE

https://researchportal.northumbria.ac.uk/en/publications/rethinking-the-fashion-value-chain-how-reshoring-can-create-a-loc

Support economical growth

https://www.circularonline.co.uk/insight/why-we-need-localised-and-community-led-supply-chain-networks-for-clothing/

Sustainability contribution and circulization

https://iuk-business-connect.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Reshoring-UK-Garment-Manufacturing-with-Automation-Thought-Leadership-Paper-final-2.pdf

What needs to happen for the future especially in the UK and what support is needed to make reshoring successful

1. History of degrowth and definition

https://degrowth.info/en/history#:~:text=This%20organisation%20has%20since%20then,is%20discussed%20in%20international%20media.

In summary, the degrowth movement has evolved from a French intellectual concept into a global interdisciplinary initiative, challenging traditional economic paradigms and advocating for sustainable and equitable alternatives.​

2. Bigger mcro economic lens of degrowth and why -

https://www.imk-boeckler.de/data/downloads/IMK/FMM%20Konferenz%202023/v_2023_10_21_pessoa.pdf

“The concept of degrowth has emerged as a response to the inherent unsustainability and inequities of the growth-oriented economic model. It advocates for a reevaluation of societal values, a reduction in material consumption, and the promotion of social and ecological well- being (Bergh, 2011; Kallis et al., 2018)”

3. Degrowth in fashion intro - 

https://www.voguebusiness.com/sustainability/degrowth-the-future-that-fashion-has-been-looking-for#:~:text=US%20retailer%20Toward%20lets%20customers,a%20sort%20of%20degrowth%2Dlite

What is Degrowth in Fashion?

• A shift away from fast fashion's overproduction and overconsumption.

• Focuses on repairing, swapping, upcycling, and producing fewer, longer-lasting garments.

• Encourages more custom, locally made, and purpose-driven designs.

Why It Matters:

• Current fashion practices vastly exceed planetary boundaries.

• Advocates like Kate Fletcher argue fashion needs to reduce its impact by a factor of four to become sustainable.

Examples of Degrowth in Action:

• Toward limits customers to 12 purchases a year.

• Asket pauses new product releases to focus on timeless collections.

• Toast offers free repairs, clothing swaps, and has reduced its annual collections.

• Gucci Vault and Upcycled by Miu Miu promote reuse and upcycling

Infrastructure and Policy Needs:

Support for local production and co-creation (e.g., The Trampery’s decelerator programs in London).

• Legislative frameworks like reduced working hours and emissions-linked tax incentives.

• Public support exists, but political will is lacking.

A Broader Social Shift:

• Degrowth isn't about recession—it’s a planned transformation.

• It involves systemic changes in ownership models (like B Corps or cooperatives), and more democratic, community-led fashion systems.

4. MACROECONOMIC things that  change- 

https://www.fashionrevolution.org/degrowth-in-the-fashion-industry/

GDP Limitations: The article argues that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an inadequate measure of societal progress, as it emphasizes economic growth without accounting for environmental and social well-being.​

Alternative Focus: There's a call to prioritize human well-being and ecological sustainability over mere economic expansion. Research indicates that beyond a certain point, increased consumption does not lead to greater happiness or fulfillment

Policy and Infrastructure: Implementing degrowth strategies requires supportive policies and the development of infrastructure that facilitates sustainable practices, such as repair services and circular fashion models.​

Cultural Shift: A broader cultural change is essential, where society values sustainability and well-being over material accumulation. This involves redefining success and progress in terms of quality of life rather than economic output.​

5. Transparency issues

https://www.voguebusiness.com/sustainability/fashion-is-making-little-progress-on-transparency-when-its-the-bare-minimum?utm_source=chatgpt.com

A significant challenge is the lack of transparency in production volumes. Only a small percentage of major fashion brands disclose their product quantities, making it difficult to assess and address overproduction effectively

6. Barriers to degrowth

https://slowfashion.global/2024/08/31/understanding-degrowth-in-fashion/

Economic Structures: The current economic system is heavily reliant on growth metrics like GDP,

making a shift to degrowth counterintuitive to prevailing economic policies.​

Consumer Behavior: Changing deeply ingrained consumer habits and perceptions about fashion and consumption requires significant cultural shifts.​

Industry Resistance: Fashion brands may resist degrowth strategies due to fears of reduced profitability and market share.​

Policy Gaps: Lack of supportive legislation and incentives for sustainable practices can impede the transition to degrowth models.

7. Great example of a brand going towards degrowth

https://www.voguebusiness.com/sustainability/early-majority-fashions-first-degrowth-brand#:~:text=She%20says%20the%20brand%20will,brand%20and%20its%20affiliated%20communities.

• Early Majority adopts a degrowth model, aiming for a managed reduction in economic activity to stay within planetary boundaries.

• The brand focuses on producing fewer, high-quality items designed for longevity and versatility.​

• The initial collection comprises seven modular pieces, including outer shells and capes, designed to be layered and adapted for various activities and life stages.
  
  

• Features like removable hoods and adjustable zips cater to diverse needs, such as accommodating different hairstyles or pregnancy.​

• Early Majority plans to generate revenue through membership fees, fostering a community that values sustainability and shared experiences over frequent purchasing.​

• The brand opts for an all-black color scheme to avoid trends, promoting timelessness and reducing the likelihood of garments being discarded due to changing fashions.​

• Early Majority faces the challenge of aligning investor expectations with its degrowth model, which prioritizes environmental and social goals over rapid financial returns.

• The brand serves as a case study for how fashion companies can implement degrowth principles, potentially influencing industry practices towards sustainability.

8. Op ed take on the downsides and considerations mandatiyr for degrwoth

https://www.mmu.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/story/fashion-sustainability-and-problem-degrowth#:~:text=In%20the%20fashion%20industry%2C%20increasing%20garment%20lifetimes,what%20about%20the%20impact%20on%20the%20millions

Dr. Perry emphasizes that while degrowth presents a viable pathway toward achieving net-zero emissions and mitigating climate change, it must be approached with careful consideration of its socio-economic implications. An industry-wide shift to a slower and smaller fashion system requires collaborative efforts to ensure that environmental objectives do not come at the expense of vulnerable populations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/fashion/degrowth.html

The article suggests that while degrowth presents a compelling framework for achieving sustainability in fashion, it requires a fundamental transformation of industry practices, economic structures, and consumer mindsets. Balancing environmental goals with social and economic considerations remains a complex but necessary endeavor.​

10. What implementations must take place - essentialism

https://www.theinterline.com/2023/11/06/the-challenge-of-degrowth-fashions-only-solution/

The article suggests that embracing essentialism—prioritizing meaningful, high-quality items—can be a viable strategy. Brands like LESTRANGE exemplify this approach by focusing on timeless designs and encouraging consumers to buy less but better.​

However, for degrowth to become a widespread reality, it requires:​

Policy Interventions: Governments must implement regulations that discourage overproduction and incentivize sustainable practices.​

Industry Commitment: Brands need to re-evaluate success metrics, shifting focus from volume-based profits to value-driven models.​

Consumer Education: Raising awareness about the environmental impact of fast fashion can help shift consumer preferences towards sustainability.

In essence, achieving degrowth in fashion is a multifaceted challenge that demands coordinated efforts across policy, industry, and consumer behavior to redefine the industry's relationship with growth and sustainability.

11. How a fashion brand can still be economically successful

https://www.nssmag.com/en/fashion/40053/luxury-crisis-degrowth-fashion-economics-sustainability

1. Emphasize Exclusivity and Controlled Production- Brands like Hermès exemplify this approach by producing limited quantities of products, such as the Birkin and Kelly bags, which are not readily available to all consumers. This scarcity enhances desirability and allows for premium pricing, enabling profitability without mass production.

2. Adopt Circular Business Models - Implementing resale, rental, repair, and reuse programs can create additional revenue streams while promoting sustainability. These models extend the lifecycle of products and align with consumer interest in environmentally responsible practices. 

3. Shift Focus from Product Volume to Consumer Relationships - Transitioning from a volume-based sales model to one that prioritizes customer engagement can be beneficial. By offering personalized experiences and content, brands can build loyalty and encourage repeat business without increasing production. ​

4. Invest in Sustainable and Durable Products- Focusing on high-quality, timeless designs that require less frequent replacement can reduce environmental impact and resonate with consumers seeking long-lasting value. This approach can justify higher price points and foster brand trust. ​

5. Redefine Success Metrics- Moving away from traditional growth metrics like quarterly sales increases, brands can adopt alternative indicators of success, such as environmental impact reduction, customer satisfaction, and brand reputation. This holistic view supports long-term sustainability goals.

12. What consumers can do from their side

https://www.fashionrevolution.org/degrowth-in-the-fashion-industry/#:~:text=For%20consumers%2C%20degrowth%20focuses%20on,shop%20second%20hand%20or%20vintage.

“For consumers, degrowth focuses on extending clothing lifecycles. Reducing clothing waste and slowing down consumption starts the shift towards a green economy; one that values people and the planet over profit.

If you want to bring degrowth into your wardrobe, shop second hand or vintage. Question yourself before you buy anything. Slow down your consumption rate. Re-wear and repair your clothes to get as much wear out of them as possible. Increasing garment lifetimes is one of the most effective means of reducing their environmental footprint and slowing down consumption.

Our Loved Clothes Last movement advocates caring for and mending your clothes, to ensure they last a long time. Create a meaningful relationship with your wardrobe by shopping mindfully. Learn how to properly care for your clothes, and repairing and re-using old clothes that need a bit more love. We have a whole collection of resources to help you on our Loved Clothes Last Pinterest board.”