2024 World Energy Outlook Report by Joseph Baines https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff Key Facts and Projections en-us 2024-01-16 17:07:06 UTC 2026-01-05 02:17:13 UTC hello@padlet.com 1. Oil markets look well supplied in the near term, thanks to a quintet of producers in the Americas – the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851538697 2024-01-17 08:12:33 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851538697 2. Our detailed analysis of market balances and supply chains brings an overhang of oil and LNG supply into view during the second half of the 2020s, alongside a large surfeit of manufacturing capacity for some key clean energy technologies, notably for solar PV and batteries. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851539082 2024-01-17 08:12:57 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851539082 3. Together with nuclear power, which is the subject of renewed interest in many countries, low emissions sources are set to generate more than half of the world’s electricity before 2030. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851543553 2024-01-17 08:17:42 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851543553 4. China stands out: it accounted for 60% of the new renewable capacity added worldwide in 2023 – and China’s solar PV generation alone is on course to exceed, by the early 2030s, the total electricity demand of the United States today. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851544369 2024-01-17 08:18:34 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851544369 5. Demand for energy services is rising rapidly, led by emerging and developing economies, but the continued progress of transitions means that, by the end of the decade, the global economy can continue to grow without using additional amounts of oil, natural gas or coal. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851544656 2024-01-17 08:18:54 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851544656 6. In recent years: despite record clean energy deployment, two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand in 2023 was met by fossil fuels, pushing energy-related CO2 emissions to another record high. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851545089 2024-01-17 08:19:19 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851545089 7. Over the past five years, annual solar capacity additions quadrupled to 425 GW, but annual manufacturing capacity is set for a sixfold increase to more than 1 100 GW, a level that – if deployed in full – would be very close to the amounts needed in the NZE Scenario. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851546825 2024-01-17 08:21:00 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851546825 8. Solar manufacturing has experienced a remarkable expansion over the last decade, increasing ten-fold globally to meet increasing demand for clean energy. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851547040 2024-01-17 08:21:15 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851547040 9. Rising data centre electricity use, linked in part to growing use of AI, is already having some strong local impacts, but the potential implications of AI for energy are broader and include improved systems coordination in the power sector and shorter innovation cycles. There are more than 11 000 data centres registered worldwide and they are often spatially concentrated, so local effects on electricity markets can be substantial. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851547632 2024-01-17 08:21:52 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851547632 10. Cost-competitive EVs – many of them from Chinese manufacturers – are making inroads in a range of markets, although there is uncertainty over how fast their share will grow. EVs currently have a share of around 20% in new car sales worldwide, and this rises towards 50% by 2030 in the STEPS (a level already being achieved in China this year), by which time EVs displace around 6 mb/d of oil demand. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851548353 2024-01-17 08:22:39 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851548353 11. China has been the engine of oil market growth in recent decades, but that engine is now switching over to electricity: the country’s oil use for road transport is projected to decline in the STEPS, although offset by a large increase in oil use as a petrochemical feedstock. India becomes the main source of oil demand growth, adding almost 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 2035. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851552967 2024-01-17 08:27:32 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851552967 12. Additional near-term oil supply is coming mainly from the Americas – the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada – and this is putting pressure on the market management strategies of the OPEC+ grouping. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851553292 2024-01-17 08:27:49 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/2851553292 13. An increase of nearly 50% in global LNG export capacity is on the horizon, led by the United States and Qatar, but the prices that many suppliers need to recover their investments may not entice developing economies to switch to natural gas at scale: something has to give… Europe and China have the import infrastructure to absorb significantly more gas, but their scope to clear the market is constrained by their investments in clean energy. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293295517 2025-01-16 09:56:17 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293295517 14. Gas-importing emerging and developing economies would generally need prices at around USD 3-5/MBtu to make gas attractive as a large-scale alternative to renewables and coal, but delivered costs for most new export projects need to average around USD 8/MBtu to cover their investments and operation. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293296139 2025-01-16 09:56:53 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293296139 15. Lower natural gas prices should lift some of Europe’s gloom about its industrial competitiveness, although Europe still faces a sizeable structural energy price disadvantage compared with the United States and China. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293296866 2025-01-16 09:57:32 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293296866 16. If gas markets are to absorb all the prospective new LNG supply and to continue to grow past 2030, this would require some combination of even lower clearing prices, higher electricity demand and slower energy transitions – with less wind and solar, lower rates of building efficiency improvements, and fewer heat pumps – than projected in the STEPS. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293297154 2025-01-16 09:57:47 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293297154 17. The STEPS does not see traditional energy security concerns diminishing, particularly for importers in Asia that face a long-term rise in their dependence on oil and gas imports to nearly 90% for oil and around 60% for gas by 2050. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293298305 2025-01-16 09:58:43 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293298305 18. Lack of access to modern energy is the most fundamental inequity in today’s energy system, with 750 million people – predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa – remaining without access to electricity and more than 2 billion without clean cooking fuels. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293302508 2025-01-16 10:02:25 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293302508 19. The potential for near-term disruption to oil and gas supply is high due to conflict in the Middle East. Around 20% of today’s global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint in the region. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303203 2025-01-16 10:03:06 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303203 20. The share of clean energy investment in emerging market and developing economies outside of China remains stuck at 15% of the total, even though these economies account for two-thirds of the global population and one-third of global GDP. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303456 2025-01-16 10:03:25 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303456 21. China has been the engine of oil market growth in recent decades, but that engine is now switching over to electricity: the country’s oil use for road transport is projected to decline in the STEPS, although offset by a large increase in oil use as a petrochemical feedstock. India becomes the main source of oil demand growth, adding almost 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 2035. josephbaines714 https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303937 2025-01-16 10:03:51 UTC https://padlet.com/energymarkets/njgg017zuju49uff/wish/3293303937