Arizona's Senate Race by Samuel Mellor https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e Election of Arizona's Senate in 2018 en-us 2018-10-09 13:57:42 UTC 2025-10-14 12:45:35 UTC hello@padlet.com Republican Candidate: dincol20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293795178
  • Congresswoman Martha McSally represents Arizona’s Second Congressional District in the House of Representatives
  • She was elected to the House of Representatives in 2014 after retiring in 2010 as a Colonel in the United States Air Force
  •  Martha was the first woman ever to fly a fighter jet into combat and over her 26 year career accumulated 325 combat hours
  •  She was deployed six times flying over Iraq and Afghanistan. During her career she earned a bronze star and six other combat medals
  •  McSally defeated Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward in the Senate GOP election. Martha swept the floor with 51.2% of the votes during the Arizona Republican Senate primary
  • Her competition, Kelli Ward had 28.6% and Joe Arpaio only had 20% of the total votes
  • Republican Senator Jeff Flake current holds the seat up for election and has decided to not run for re-election. Incumbency does not play a role in this election race
  •  McSally is usually labeled as a moderate conservative as she has previously spoken out against comments made by current president Donald Trump
  •  She has also placed gender equality as the backbone of her campaign. She has also been an avid supporter of Pro-Life and has argued that strict gun control legislation is unconstitutional
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, McSally voted in line with President Donald Trump on 97.8% on legislation but, she only supported Trump 57.6% of the time
    • ]]>     2018-10-17 12:26:13 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293795178     Demographics of Arizona melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293795399
  • In 2017 an estimated 7,016,270 people lived in Arizona
  • 54.9% of the people were White
  • 31.4% of the people were Hispanic
  • 5.2% of the people were Native American
  • 5% of the people were Black
  • 3.5% of the people were Asian
    • ]]>     2018-10-17 12:26:43 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293795399     Voter Turnout melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293801076
  • There were 3,588,466 registered voters for the election of 2016
  • There were 2,661,497 people who actually voted
  • This is a 74.17% voter turnout

    • ]]>     2018-10-17 12:38:01 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293801076     Voter Registration Laws melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293804464
  • The day of the election in Arizona is November 6th
  • The deadline to have been a registered voter was October 9th
  • Arizona allows online registration but not same day registration
  • There is no requirement for photo identification when voting
  • However a non-photo I.D is needed in order to vote
  • Early voting starts October 10th and goes until November 2nd
  • Arizona does allow voting by mail
  • Arizona also allows absentee voters to have their ballots in by a deadline of November 6
  • Arizona's polls are open from 6:00 am until 7:00 pm
  • To be able to vote in Arizona, you have to be a citizen of Arizona, over 18 years of age and  U.S citizen
  • You cannot vote if you have committed a felony and have not had your rights given back to you
    • ]]>     2018-10-17 12:44:40 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293804464     Democratic Candidate: schaid20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293813868
  • Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema currently represents Arizona’s 9th Congressional District in the House of Representatives
  • Sinema has served in both chambers of State Legislature, having been elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2004 and the Arizona Senate in 2010
  • After being elected to Congress in 2012, Kyrsten joined the Democratic Blue Dog Coalition, a caucus of Representatives that identify as conservative Democrats,  and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, which is group of 48 members who are equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. 
  • Sinema has worked for the adoption of the DREAM Act and has campaigned against proposals to ban recognition of same-sex marriage in Arizona
  • She was also the first openly bisexual and atheist person elected to the U.S. Congress
  • Incumbency does not play a role in this election race as Kyrsten has held no seats in United States' Senate
  •  Sinema has usually been labeled as a centrist or moderate Democrat
  •  Her all time voting record placed her near the center of a liberal-conservative scale in the National Journal’s 2013 vote ratings
  •  The National Journal also gave her an ideology score of 57% liberal and 43% conservative. According to FiveThirtyEight, as of July 2018, Sinema voted in line with Trump's position on legislation 59.5% of the time.
    • ]]>     2018-10-17 13:00:47 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/293813868     Support for Trump in the 2016 Election melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295124666
  • Kyrsten Sinema had voted yes for 59.5% of the bills the trump administration proposed, even though her party views don't align with the views of the president Sinema did not openly support Donald Trump in the 2016 election however.

    • Martha McSally has voted 97.8% of the time with Donald trump while she was a member of the House of Representatives. McSally also openly supports Donald Trump. She had also supported Trump before the election also. Trump has mentioned McSally a number of times over the past couple of years.  Overall she voted for 68 times out of 70 with the views of the Trump Administration.


    ]]>     2018-10-20 23:26:31 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295124666     Endorsements melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295128469 This is a complete list of the groups Kyrsten Sinema endorses in the year 2018
    • American Federation of Government Employees
    • Arizona Education Association
    • Arizona Police Association
    • Arizona State AFL-CIO
    • Communications Workers of America
    • Emily's List
    • End Citizens United
    • Equality PAC
    • Feminist Majority Political Action Committee
    • Human Rights Campaign
    • League of Conservation Voters
    • LGBTQ Victory Fund
    • LPAC
    • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
    • National Education Association
    • National Organization for Women
    • Planned Parenthood Action Fund
    • Population Connection
    • Rachel's Action Network
    • Run with Pride
    • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
    • Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
    • United Mine Workers of America
    This is a complete list of the groups Martha McSally endorses in 2018

    • Arizona Police Association
    • ClearPath Action Fund
    • Maggie's List
    • National Border Patrol Council
    • National Rifle Association
    • Republican Main Street Partnership
    • RightNow Women PAC
    • Value In Electing Women Political Action Committee (VIEW PAC)
    • Winning for Women
    ]]>     2018-10-21 00:56:52 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295128469     Big Issues of Candidates melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445226
  • Kyrsten Sinema believes that healthcare should become more affordable for everyone. She hasn't made any definitive stands on any other issues. However the way she has voted on issues while in the house of representatives,she has more moderate views

    • Martha McSally is running on increasing The United states military budget and securing the southern border of the U.S. She also is an avid supporter for Pro-life and gender equality. She hasn't taken a definitive stance on many other issues. She does have consistently conservative values though. 
    ]]>     2018-10-22 13:43:15 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445226     Which Interest Groups are Spending Money melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445455 Martha McSally has Raised  $12,637,152 dollars for the Arizona Senate Race. She had got this money from interest groups such as
    • Citizens for Prosperity in America today
    • Raytheon Co.
    • Elliott Management
    • Wtl Inc
    All of these donations ranged from $279,000 to $29,700
    She had also gained money from The Republican party too.

    Kyrsten SInema has raised $15,688,595 for the 2018 Senate race. These are some of the groups that had donated money.

    • EMLIY's List
    • Democracy Engine
    • Paul, Weiss et al
    • Cresent Capital Group
    • Alphabet Inc
    All of these donations range from $185,462 to $51,944
    ]]>     2018-10-22 13:43:40 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445455     Public Opinion Poll melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445774 • Conducted by the New York Times from October 15th to October 19th

    • Pollers called 39,289 Arizona residents from all over the state

    • 606 of the people called answered and spoke to pollers

    • 48% supported Republican candidate Martha McSally

    • 46% supported Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema

    • 6% were undecided

    • 8% margin error for the overall lead

    ]]>     2018-10-22 13:44:11 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295445774     Sources melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295457999 “About.” McSally for Senate, 
    mcsallyforsenate.com/about/.

    Bycoffe. “Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.” FiveThirtyEight, 10 Oct. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/martha-mcsally/.

    “Issues.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 2018, 
    mcsally.house.gov/issues.

    “List of United States Senators from Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona.

    Martha Mcsally Is the Rare Republican Woman Putting Gender At the Forefront Of Her Campaign, Li Zhou - https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17772958/arizona-senate-primary-martha-mcsally-gender

    Mcsally Wins Arizona Senate Gop Primary Over Arpaio and Ward, Nbc Projects
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/arizona-senate-republican-primary-election-results-n904601

    “Register to Vote or Update Your Current Voter Information.” Register to Vote or Update Your Current Voter Information | Arizona Secretary of State, Arizona Secretary of State, 2018, azsos.gov/elections/voting-election/register-vote-or-update-your-current-voter-information.

    “Rep. Kyrsten Sinema - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033983.

    “Rep. Martha McSally - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, 
    www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033982&cycle=2018&type=C.

    “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/137299/martha-mcsally.


    “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, 2018, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/28338/kyrsten-sinema.

    “Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.” FiveThirtyEight, 10 Oct. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/martha-mcsally/.
    Hanson, Ronald.

    “Voter Registration & Historical Election Data.” Voter Registration & Historical Election Data | Arizona Secretary of State, Arizona Secretary of State, 2018, azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data.

    “Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, Ballotpedia, 2018, 
    ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.

    “U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Arizona.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, U.S Census Bureau, 2018, 
    www.census.gov/quickfacts/az.

    "We polled voters in Arizona.” The New York Times, 2018,     
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

    “2 Arizona Democrats Side with Donald Trump More Often than Some Republicans.” Azcentral, The Republic | Azcentral.com, 1 Apr. 2018, 
    www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/04/01/kyrsten-sinema-tom-ohalleran-side-donald-trump-more-often-than-some-republicans/471206002/.


    ]]>     2018-10-22 14:03:27 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/295457999     Our Prediction melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296388291
  • We predict that Republican Martha McSally will win Arizona's 2018 Senatorial Election. 
  • According to RealClearPolitics, McSally currently has 46% of the votes in Arizona. This includes polling information from the following source: New York Times, CBS News, ABC 15, and Fox News
  •  McSally holds a 0.7% spread over her competitor Krysten Sinema. We believe this to be a strong piece of evidence because this public opinion poll accompanies four major media and news networks. 
  • Statistically, Arizona has elected five Democratic Senators and six Republican Senators since 1912. In recent years, the last four elected Senators have been Republicans and since 1969 every elected Senator has been a Republican
  •  To further back this up, Arizona has voted Republican in every single Presidential election since 1952 with the exclusion of Bill Clinton's 1996 victory
  •  Arizona has statistically always been a Republican state and their voting patterns have remained constant
  •  These three pieces of evidence currently show that McSally is ahead of Sinema in the public opinion polls and that her lead in steadily increasing
  •  In addition to this, Arizona has consecutively elected Republican senators since 1969 and has remained constantly Republican in every single presidential election excluding 1996. This shows that Arizona is continuously a red republican state in federal elections
  •  An alternative viewpoint may argue that McSally only has a minute advantage in polling data currently. While McSally is in the lead at 46%, Sinema closely follows with 45.3% collectively
  •  With how close the opinion polls are, this election will most likely be highly competitive. Sinema could easily take the lead on election day and since the voting percentages are so close, the 4% margin of error could quite possibly give Sinema the lead
  • Public opinion polls are not always representative of the true voting population and can be completely inaccurate in some instances
  • An Election as competitive as Arizona's Senate Race could go either way and in the end we'll have to wait and see. 
    • To wrap things up though we do believe that Arizona's many Republican voters will turn out and elect a seventh Republican Senator.
    ]]>     2018-10-24 12:16:40 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296388291     melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296442686 2018-10-24 13:54:42 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296442686 melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296443454 2018-10-24 13:55:52 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296443454 Demographic Make-up of Arizona melsam20dew https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296450822 2018-10-24 14:06:30 UTC https://padlet.com/melsam20dew/na0j93myly4e/wish/296450822