Colorado 3rd Midterm Election Analysis by Madeline Ogden https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss en-us 2018-11-02 13:52:31 UTC 2024-03-15 19:48:31 UTC hello@padlet.com Candidates s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/299784177
  • Candidates: Scott Tipton (Republican, Incumbent), Diane Mitsch Bush (Democrat), Gaylon Kent (Libertarian), Mary Malarsie (Independent). This is not an open seat election because Scott Tipton is an incumbent. 
  • Primary race: Diane Mitsch Bush won the democratic primary with 64% of the votes, the republican incumbent, Scott Tipton was uncontested. 
    • ]]>     2018-11-02 13:54:32 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/299784177     Candidate Information: s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300253303 Diane Mitsch Bush is a former democratic member of the Colorado House of Representatives in House District 26 from Jan. 9th, 2013 to Nov. 2nd 2017 when she resigned to campaign for congress.
    Scott Tipton  was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010. He currently serves on the House Committee on Financial Services and House Natural Resources Committee. He is Co-chairman of the Congressional Small Business Caucus and Vice Chair of the Congressional Western Caucus.
    2018 will be Gaylon Kent's fourth attempt at winning election to Congress. He served in the U.S. Navy from 1983-1987.
    Mary Malarsie worked at her family owned ranch and this will be her first time running for Congress.]]>     2018-11-04 21:42:16 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300253303     Scott Tipton s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300256566 2018-11-04 22:06:10 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300256566 Diane Mitsch Bush s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300256941 2018-11-04 22:08:23 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300256941 Ideology s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300271609 Scott Tipton: Tipton fits the republican party. He is working to get less government control in the economy so small businesses can create jobs in order to generate economic growth. He also believes that health care decisions should be put in the hands of individuals, families, and their doctors.
    Diane Mitsch Bush: She fits the democratic party. She believes in the government investing in public education, healthcare for everyone, and equal rights.
    Gaylon Kent: He has core libertarian ideals, emphasizing hands off government policies.
    Mary Malarsie: She agrees with some Republican philosophies and some Democrat philosophies, but believes most in independent thinking.]]>     2018-11-04 23:50:52 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300271609     Information on the State/District: tmad621 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300271670
  • Population: 719,526
    Gender: 50.5% Male, 49.5% Female
    Race: 88.2% White, 2.3% Native Am.
    Ethnicity: 24.3% Hispanic
    Unemployment: 10.2%
    Median household income
    $47,012
    High school graduation rate
    88.7%
    College graduation rate
    29.9%
  • In 2016, Colorado had nine electoral votes, which was 1.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.3 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Voter turnout in last election (2016 Presidential Election; but might also be interesting and informative to look at the 2012 Midterm Election turnout for your district)
  • In Colorado you must have a form of identification but a non-photo id if you go in person to vote is acceptable. In order to be eligible to vote you must be at least 16 years old and will be 18 by Election Day. A voter must be a citizen of the United States and have lived in Colorado at least 22 days prior to Election Day. Colorado also has online voting and is one of the few states that allows voters to vote by mail.
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 23:51:18 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300271670     Politics of the Race:Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you.Find at least 1 campaign ad from each candidate.Which interest groups are spending money? Any from outside of the state?Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016? s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300283231 2018-11-05 01:19:42 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300283231 Public Opinion Poll 1 s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300312876 ABC News, Election 2018 FiveThirtyEight
    Chance that Diane Mitsch Bush will win: 19.3%
    Chance that Scott Tipton will win: 80.7%
    Sample size: 500 +/- 5
    ABC News is an accredited source ]]>     2018-11-05 04:51:34 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300312876     travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300313208 2018-11-05 04:53:44 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300313208 travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300315150 2018-11-05 05:05:37 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300315150 2016 presidential election travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300316889 Hillary Clinton won with 48.2% of the votes in Colorado with Donald Trump trailing her at 43.3% in the 2016 presidential election.]]> 2018-11-05 05:16:21 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300316889 travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318126 2018-11-05 05:27:05 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318126 travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318130 2018-11-05 05:27:06 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318130 Endorsements travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318158 Bush has been endorsed by multiple organizations and individuals. including John Hickenlooper the governor of Colorado. This is important because people who are parts of these organizations or support the different individuals will feel more inclined to vote for a candidate that they support.

    Tipton has been endorsed by the NRA, this endorsement shows how he fits his political platform very well because the NRA does not support stricter gun laws and neither do republicans. This endorsement will also help Tipton gain votes because individuals who support the NRA will be more likely to vote for him because he is endorsed by the NRA.]]>     2018-11-05 05:27:18 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318158     Issues travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318907 Guns
    Tipton wants to protect the 2nd amendment right when it comes to owning a gun. While Bush wants to implement stricter gun laws in order to to help manage things like mass shooting. 

    Agriculture
    Tipton believes that Agriculture is the economic backbone of the 3rd Congressional District, the state of Colorado, and the nation. Tipton wants to do more to help promote the agriculture business. 
    Bush wants to repeal provisions in the Trump Tax Bill that hurt rural communities and support a Farm Bill that actually works for family agriculture.

    Oil and Gas/Energy
    Bush wants to seek strict standards and regulation for oil and gas leasing on federal lands to protect natural values on the surface. While Tipton supports the development of the Keystone XL pipeline that will help bring 800,000 barrels a day responsibly developed energy from Canada into the United States]]>     2018-11-05 05:34:18 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300318907     My Prediction s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300321005 I predict the outcome of the election will be the incumbent, Scott Tipton, winning. This is because a large majority of the district is rural land owned by older white males. Older white males tend to vote republican and since Tipton is the republican candidate with a winning poll i believe that he is going to win the election. Although Tipton has gotten a-lot of pressure from the media because a bill that Tipton proposed was largely written word for word by one of his largest campaign contributors last year I believe that he will still be able to win the election. This is because he is an incumbent who has mostly pleased the people he represents and I think that they will continue to support him through this election despite this incident. ]]> 2018-11-05 05:51:29 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300321005 travisharrison108 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300322784 2018-11-05 06:06:47 UTC https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300322784 Citations s1501213 https://padlet.com/s1501213/mjp9f55oj6ss/wish/300324343 “Colorado Primary Election Results: Third House District.” The New York Times, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/results/colorado-house-district-3-primary-election.

    “Colorado's 3rd Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_

    “About Me.” Congressman Scott Tipton, 28 Mar. 2017,
    https://tipton.house.gov/about-me’

    “Biography.” Gaylon Kent, 27 Dec. 2017, 
    https://thefreedomtrain.com/biography/.

    “About.” Mary Malarsie, 
    https://www.marymindependent.com/about/

    NateSilver538. “Colorado 3rd - 2018 House Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018,
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/colorado/3/

    “Colorado District 03 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, 
    www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=CO03.


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