Modelling by https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn Bleh en-us 2018-10-22 08:12:04 UTC 2018-12-06 06:16:41 UTC hello@padlet.com Models are Open Systems pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295332359 2018-10-22 08:17:18 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295332359 Roles of Quantitative models pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295332844 1.  Synthesis and integration of data
2. Guiding observation and experiment
3. Predicting the future]]> 2018-10-22 08:18:31 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295332844 Definition pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295334170 A simplification/analogy of a complex system]]> 2018-10-22 08:22:07 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295334170 Conceptualisation pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295334802 How we frame the problem]]> 2018-10-22 08:24:27 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295334802 Empirical Adequacy of the Governing Equations pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335072 How well our mathematical representations map onto natural processes]]> 2018-10-22 08:25:31 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335072 Reasons for Successful Predictions stysad https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335468 2018-10-22 08:26:49 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335468 Input Parametization pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335521 How well numerical variables represent elements of the system]]> 2018-10-22 08:26:58 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295335521 Complex models in science shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295336001 1. natural system itself is complex
2. improves accuracy by decreasing impact of errors in any one variable]]> 2018-10-22 08:28:41 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295336001 May result in "complexity paradox" shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295337009 the closer it comes to represent the system (with increasing processes and parameters), the harder to ascertain whether it is a faithful representation of the system]]> 2018-10-22 08:31:16 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295337009 Simple Models stysad https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295337361 1. More reliable
2. Less parameters, less questions, less uncertainty]]> 2018-10-22 08:32:22 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295337361 1. Meteorology and Weather Predictions pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295338496 - Non- deterministic
- Involves Spatial Ambiguity
- Restricted to near term]]> 2018-10-22 08:35:51 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295338496 The Problem with Models stysad https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295338679 If a model is wrong it will be refuted. Scientists can and will be blamed for faulty predictions. It is hard to make confident assertions. ]]> 2018-10-22 08:36:26 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295338679 2. Celestial Mechanics and Prediction of Planetary Motions pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295339200 - Involves small numbers of measurable parameters
- Highly repetitive
- Enormous database]]> 2018-10-22 08:38:17 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295339200 3. Classical Mechanics pouvalen1 https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295339744 - Many Assumptions]]> 2018-10-22 08:40:11 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295339744 'What If' Scenarios stysad https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295340394 Better to give possible outcomes with what course of action humans will take. Gives informed appraisal ]]> 2018-10-22 08:42:26 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295340394 Model Testing shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295340898 -short term
-provide test for understanding
-allows for comparison of alternative model
-highly relevant for policy decisions]]> 2018-10-22 08:44:06 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295340898 Forecasting shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295341274 -long term
-doesn't improve scientific understanding
-cannot be tested
-cannot be compared with empirical results]]> 2018-10-22 08:45:24 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295341274 1.The relevance of models to a range of applications in environmental science shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295352371 2018-10-22 09:29:24 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295352371 2. The role of environmental observations in developing and evaluating models shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295354547 2018-10-22 09:37:54 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295354547 3. The communication and usefulness of environmental model results shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295355645 2018-10-22 09:41:43 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295355645 Comparison with Observation and the Model itself shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295358516 2018-10-22 09:53:24 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295358516 How good is the observation shofend https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295359255 2018-10-22 09:56:03 UTC https://padlet.com/pouvalen1/mezwbp1rpyrn/wish/295359255