Midterm Project: Arizona Senate Race by Sophia Osuna https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq by Shannon Miranda, Hannah Ni, and Sophia Osuna en-us 2018-10-22 15:40:40 UTC 2023-02-27 19:32:49 UTC hello@padlet.com Martha McSally (R) sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/295532983
  • Currently congresswoman representing Arizona’a Second Congressional District in the House
  • Current affiliation - 
    • Ideologically, known as a political moderate
  • 26-year military career
    • Became the first woman in U.S. history to fly a fighter jet in combat, command a fighter squadron 
    • Because of this, serves on the Armed Services and Homeland Security Committee
  • Many of her achievements are associated with military history and veterans                
    • Restored the rights for WWII female pilots to have their assises in the Arlington National Cemetery
    • Founded legislation to fast track veterans for jobs at the southwest border
  • Primary race

    • “Biography.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 20 June 2017, mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography.
    ]]>     2018-10-22 15:57:47 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/295532983     Kyrsten Sinema (D) sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/295533861
  • Campaign expense: $15,688,595
  • Sinema is currently representative of Arizona’s 9th congressional district.
  • Her original affiliation was with the Green Party, while she currently affiliates with the Blue Dog Coalition as a conservative democrat 
  • Ideologically, Sinema is more conservative than the democratic party and is a moderate candidate.
  • Scandal
    • Sinema claims that she was homeless and lived in an abandoned gas station in Florida with no running water or electricity - proved partially false
    • NY Times received court records detailing her payments for an electric, phone, and gas bill while they were living in the abandoned gas station, contrasting some aspects of her story
    • Said she had a toilet but no running water
    • But the previous owner of the gas station said that her building had a facet and wood-burning stove
  • Primary race
    • “Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

    Mikelionis, Lukas. “Senate Dem Hopeful Kyrsten Sinema Challenged over Details of Homeless Upbringing.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-challenged-over-details-of-homeless-upbringing.
    ]]>     2018-10-22 15:59:00 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/295533861     Demographics sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298120233
  • Majority of children are people of color
    • This includes Native Americans and indigenous peoples of Alaska
  • As population grows with an increase of 108.8%, demographics are changing
  • 42.2 % of the state's population is nonwhite
    • Hispanic population alone makes up 30% of the state's residents
      • Hispanic immigration to Arizona began with NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

    • Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.

    ]]>     2018-10-29 16:26:45 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298120233     Voter Turnout sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298125874
  • This year, the number of people newly registered to vote in Arizona is more than double that of the last midterm election 
  • This could signal a higher voter turnout in November
  • The youngest voting demographic, those aged 18 to 24, has more new voters registered than all other age groups since Jan. 1 — and possibly more than their cohort in 2016, a presidential election year (nearly 314,000 new registrations)

    • Leingang, Rachel. “Huge Increase in Number of Voters Registered in Arizona as Midterm Election Nears.” Azcentral, Arizona Republic, 18 Oct. 2018, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/17/arizona-voter-registration-surges-ahead-2018-midterm-election/1672458002/.

    ]]>     2018-10-29 16:35:58 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298125874     Voter Registration Laws sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298128535
  • To vote in Arizona, one must be a citizen of the United States and a resident of an Arizona county
  • A voter must be 18 years or older on or before Election Day
  • To be eligible to vote in an election one must register at least 29 days prior to the election
    • A citizen can register online, in person at the county recorder's office, or by mail
  • Citizens must provide proof of citizenship to register to vote
    • Acceptable forms of documentation include birth certificates, passports, and U.S. naturalization documents
  • Voter Identification: non-photo ID
    • Voter must present some form of identification at the polls
      • The identification does not necessarily need to include a photo
      • Present a photo ID that includes his or her name and registered address, or two forms of non-photo ID that include the voter's name and registered address
  • Early voting: Arizona does permit early ballot submission
    • All voted early ballots must be received in the office of the County Recorder, other officer in charge of elections, or deposited at any Ballot Center in the county no later than 7:00 p.m. on Election Day
    • Permanent Early Voting List Information, recorder.maricopa.gov/earlyvotingballot/permanentevlistinfo.aspx.

    ]]>     2018-10-29 16:39:09 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298128535     Big Issues sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134094 Due to Arizona's proximity to the border, immigration would seem like an important issue. However, because Sinema has taken a conservative stance on immigration - even supporting Trump's wall - voters won't vote based on immigration as both candidates share similar ideologies.

    What is a decisive factor for voters is health care. The Ringer reports that voters in Arizona consider health care to be the most important issue in this election.  In fact, Arizona has the third-highest uninsured rate in the entire country.

    McSally has repeatedly opposed Obamacare, and has voted to repeal Obamacare multiple times while serving in the House. On the other hand, Sinema is a proponent of Obamacare. She even helped to draft the Affordable Care Act. Her ideals might win her the election as polls indicate that even in conservative Arizona, most people support Obamacare and are against its repeal.

    Charity, Justin. “The Senate Race in Arizona Is All About the Biggest Issue of the Midterm Elections.” The Ringer, The Ringer, 24 Oct. 2018, www.theringer.com/2018/10/24/18017274/arizona-senate-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-obamacare-health-care-trump.]]>     2018-10-29 16:47:53 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134094     Endorsements sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134176 McSally has made it clear that she supports all of Trump's policies and plans to continue doing so if elected. Trump, in turn, has also announced his support for her.

    Green Party candidate Angela Green dropped out of the race to support Sinema. Green tells ABC News, "I want [supporters] to vote for a better Arizona, and that would be for Kyrsten Sinema". This last-minute support could be just what Sinema needs as Green was projected to take 6% of votes in the election.

    Shaw, Adam. “Kyrsten Sinema Gets Boost in Arizona Senate Race as Green Party Candidate Drops out, Backs Her.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/kyrsten-sinema-gets-boost-in-arizona-senate-race-as-green-party-candidate-drops-out-backs-her.]]>     2018-10-29 16:48:00 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134176     Interest Groups sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134292 As of October, Sinema has raised up to 10.5 million dollars compared to McSally's 7.6 million dollars. Additionally, outside money has totaled up to 25 million dollars.

    So that leads us to imperative question: who is giving candidates this money?

    National democratic groups such as Majority Forward and Priorities USA Action have helped Sinema through advertisements.

    Defend Arizona, a conservative group that supports lower taxes, a strong military, and limited government is actively supporting McSally. They run ads that paint Sinema as a radical liberal.

    Mo, Kelsey. “McConnell-Aligned Group Gives Another $8.5 Million to pro-McSally PAC.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 26 Oct. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/26/mitch-mcconnell-backed-group-gives-another-8-5-million-pro-martha-mcsally-pac-senate-leadership-fund/1774767002/.]]>     2018-10-29 16:48:10 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134292     Public Opinion Poll sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134435 Polls reveal that the senate race in Arizona is a toss-up, which indicates that both candidates share the same likelihood of getting elected when considering things like the makeup of people who will actually vote and sampling error. 538 finds that there is a 4 in 7 chance (57.6%) that the democratic candidate Kirsten Sinema will get elected, while predicting a 3 in 7 chance (42.4%) that Martha McSally will win. Furthermore, it is just as important to recognize that 538 has compiled results from multiple polling sites such as Harris Interactive and HighGround. When looking at the data from 10 recent polls conducted in the last month or so, many of the results seem divisive with either candidate winning by a few percentage points. Thus, public opinion indicates that either party can take control of the senator's seat.

    To be more specific with the divisiveness in polling data, look to polls conducted by Harris Interactive and the Trafalgar Group. Both polls were conducted between October 31st to around November 2nd; however, they indicate slightly different results based on their sample size.

    Harris Interactive found that there would be a 49% chance that McSally would win and a 44% chance Sinema would take the seat.  They obtained these results with a sample size of 600 respondents, and their poll had a margin of error of 5.6.

    On the other hand, Trafalgar found that there was a 50% chance that Sinema would win over McSally who has a 47% chance of winning the election. Trafalgar came to this conclusion by surveying 2,166 people, thus, resulting in a margin of error of 2.7.

    Though both polling sources are well-respected, because Trafalgar surveyed more than triple the number of people surveyed in Harris and has a smaller margin of error, it should be given more weight when considering the outcomes of the election. In fact to put this in perspective, Trafalgar's credibility (weight) is 1.44 points higher than Harris. However, because Trafalgar and Harris both predict that the race will be a close one, there is no substantial evidence that Sinema or McSally will win with certainty. 

    NateSilver538. “Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/arizona/.]]>     2018-10-29 16:48:21 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298134435     Precedents sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298135899
  • U.S. Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R) are running for office.
  • Offices were previously held by Senator John McCain, who passed away on August 25, 2018, and Senator Jeff Flake who is retiring.
  • The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.
    • “Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.
    ]]>     2018-10-29 16:50:19 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298135899     Alternative Perspective sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138613 However, Arizona has traditionally voted Republican which may lead to Martha McSally’s win. In addition, Trump publically announced his support for her which elevates her position. Additionally, a major scandal surrounds Sinema that involved partially lying about her past leading to trust issues between the Arizonans and Sinema. Finally, according to NBC, Republican affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic affiliated ones in early voting. However, Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting.

    Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.]]>     2018-10-29 16:54:29 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138613     Evidence sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138781 Sinema represents many of the Arizonans beliefs and stands firmly with them in terms of healthcare, a critical issue in the state. McSally’s unpopular view on Obamacare could ultimately cost her the election. In addition, former candidate Angela Green publically voiced her support for Sinema adding around 6% of votes to the Democratic candidate. Finally, more younger citizens have registered to vote and usually align themselves with more  Democratic and moderate views, provided by Sinema. Thus, Sinema has a higher chance of winning the election. ]]> 2018-10-29 16:54:46 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138781 Thesis sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138869 While this race will be very close, we predict Kyrsten Sinema (D) will win.]]> 2018-10-29 16:54:55 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/298138869 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212044 “Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.]]> 2018-11-04 17:19:07 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212044 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212070 “Republicans Outpacing Democrats in Early Voting in Key States, NBC News Finds.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881.]]> 2018-11-04 17:19:19 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212070 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212157 Mikelionis, Lukas. “Senate Dem Hopeful Kyrsten Sinema Challenged over Details of Homeless Upbringing.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-challenged-over-details-of-homeless-upbringing.]]> 2018-11-04 17:19:29 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212157 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212184 Leingang, Rachel. “Huge Increase in Number of Voters Registered in Arizona as Midterm Election Nears.” Azcentral, Arizona Republic, 18 Oct. 2018, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/17/arizona-voter-registration-surges-ahead-2018-midterm-election/1672458002/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:19:40 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212184 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212210 “Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:19:51 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212210 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212223 Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:20:00 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212223 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212243 “Campaign Finance Data.” FEC.gov, www.fec.gov/data/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:20:09 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212243 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212261 Permanent Early Voting List Information, recorder.maricopa.gov/earlyvotingballot/permanentevlistinfo.aspx.]]> 2018-11-04 17:20:15 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300212261 sosuna_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300213092 2018-11-04 17:24:53 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300213092 hni_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300216350 Charity, Justin. “The Senate Race in Arizona Is All About the Biggest Issue of the Midterm Elections.” The Ringer, The Ringer, 24 Oct. 2018, www.theringer.com/2018/10/24/18017274/arizona-senate-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-obamacare-health-care-trump.]]> 2018-11-04 17:45:16 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300216350 hni_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300216773 NateSilver538. “Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/arizona/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:47:41 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300216773 hni_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300217830 Mo, Kelsey. “McConnell-Aligned Group Gives Another $8.5 Million to pro-McSally PAC.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 26 Oct. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/26/mitch-mcconnell-backed-group-gives-another-8-5-million-pro-martha-mcsally-pac-senate-leadership-fund/1774767002/.]]> 2018-11-04 17:54:30 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300217830 hni_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300219524 Shaw, Adam. “Kyrsten Sinema Gets Boost in Arizona Senate Race as Green Party Candidate Drops out, Backs Her.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/kyrsten-sinema-gets-boost-in-arizona-senate-race-as-green-party-candidate-drops-out-backs-her.]]> 2018-11-04 18:04:10 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300219524 smiranda_20 https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300575139 “Biography.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 20 June 2017, mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography.]]> 2018-11-05 16:43:16 UTC https://padlet.com/sosuna_20/m961o7ptditq/wish/300575139