Midterm Election Analysis by Nabiha Zaman https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis An analysis of the Illinois-14 House race and the Texas Senate race by Halima Wote and Nabiha Zaman en-us 2018-11-02 18:22:41 UTC 2023-02-25 02:46:32 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Balance.png :Meet the Candidates: nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299942126 Randy Hultgren 
  • Republican
  • Incumbent since 2011, seeking fifth term
  • Career Politician
  • One of the main focuses in campaign is human trafficking
]]> 2018-11-02 18:29:00 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299942126 cLauren Underwood s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299942623
  • 3 major issues, talk in detail
  • Healthcare
    • >supported the the affordable care act
    >diagnosed with heart condition at the age of three. 
     >wants to help mental healthcare
    >supports paid  family leave 
    • Economic
    >supports infrastructure investment
    •  international affairs 
    >opposed travel ban
    >against separating families at the border of mexico.


    ]]>     2018-11-02 18:30:09 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299942623     Randy Hultgren: Positions nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299956281 Positions = More ideologically Republican
    Domestic Issues
    • opposes: environmental regulations, gun control regulations, obama care
    Economy
    • He supports small businesses; he created legislation that would help small banks be created with less requirements a person would need to start one
    International issues
    • supports immigration for refugees
    • supports sanctions against Iran, North Korea, and Russia
    Social Issues
    • Has made legislature advocating the crackdown of human trafficking that would force the states to take action on people forced into the industry; currently, there is no legislation on state and local levels to track or stop human trafficking.
    • pro life

    election issues: healthcare; immigration; education; gun control
    ]]>     2018-11-02 19:02:30 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299956281     :Candidate: Lauren Underwood s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299957112
  • democrat
  • healthcare policy advisor
  • profession is registered nurse 
  • does not hold political position
  • worked at the department of health care and human services.
  • One of the main focuses is healthcare
    • ]]>     2018-11-02 19:04:53 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299957112     Illinois 14 Demographics s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299986666
    -89.9% urban
    -population: 718,232
    -median income $78,000
    -85.8% White]]>     2018-11-02 20:47:57 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299986666     Citations nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299987103 “Republican National Committee.” GOP, The Republican National Committee, www.gop.com/.

    “The Democrats.” The Democrats, The Democratic Party, democrats.org/.

    OnTheIssues.org. “Randy Hultgren on the Issues.” Randy Hultgren on the Issues, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/IL/Randy_Hultgren.htm.

    Fuller, James. “Hultgren Renews Push for Global Human Sex Trafficking Crackdown.” Daily Herald, Paddock Publications, Inc., 19 Jan. 2017, www.dailyherald.com/article/20170119/news/170118697/.

    Hultgren, Randy. “Issues.” Congressman Randy Hultgren, hultgren.house.gov/issues.

    Board, Sun-Times Editorial. “14th Congressional District Democratic Nominee: Lauren Underwood.” Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Sun-Times, 13 Oct. 2018, 1:33, chicago.suntimes.com/politics/14th-congressional-district-democratic-candidate-lauren-underwood-2/.

    Gaitan, Daniel. “14th Congressional District Candidate Underwood Galvanizes Supporters before Election Day.” Daily, Local and Breaking News for McHenry County, Illinois - Northwest Herald, Northwest Herald, www.nwherald.com/2018/11/05/14th-congressional-district-candidate-underwood-galvanizes-supporters-before-election-day/a6faaw5/.

    “Lauren Underwood for Congress.” Lauren Underwood for Congress, Lauren Underwood for Congress, www.underwoodforcongress.com/.

    FRANKLIN, RHONISHA. “Election 2018 Candidate: Lauren Underwood, 14th Congressional District Representative.” The Herald News, Shaw Media, 4 Oct. 2018, www.theherald-news.com/2018/10/04/election-2018-candidate-lauren-underwood-14th-congressional-district-representative/akelj4t/.

    “2012 General Election Results Map for IL.” CNN, Cable News Network, www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IL/house/.

    “Illinois' 14th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

    “Illinois District 14 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 26 Oct. 2018, www.opensecrets.org/races/geography?cycle=2018&id=IL14.

    “Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 14th District, Hultgren vs. Underwood.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 3 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-1.html.

    “Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 14th District, Hultgren vs. Underwood.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 31 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-3.html.

    State, Illinois Secretary of. “Office of the Illinois Secretary of State.” The Official Website for the Illinois Secretary of State, Office of the Secretary of State, www.cyberdriveillinois.com/.

    “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/177001/lauren-underwood.

    “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/18199/randy-hultgren.

    “Voter Registration.” Voter Registration, Illinois State Board of Elections, www.elections.il.gov/VotingInformation/Register.aspx.

    Williams, Anniken. “Congressional Republicans Vulnerable in Upcoming Elections.” Public Policy Polling, Public Policy Polling, 26 Apr. 2018, docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_7bca568f1e114f018440e46d1bc274d2.pdf.
    ]]>     2018-11-02 20:50:06 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299987103     Illinois Voter Turnout Demographics nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988005
  • 2016
    1. Republican  Randy Hultgren(incumbent) got 59.3% vote
    2. Democrat Jim Walz got 40.7% vote

    1. Republican  Randy Hultgren(incumbent) got 58.8% vote
    2. Democrat Dennis Anderson got 41.2% vote
    ]]>     2018-11-02 20:54:28 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988005     Randy Hultgren Campaign Ad nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988518 -Mostly focuses on the problem of human trafficking, and Hultgren working to stop it]]> 2018-11-02 20:56:55 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988518 Lauren Underwood Campaign Ad nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988753 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kmnliJja-8

    https://twitter.com/lunderwood630/status/1038484251631595520?lang=en]]>     2018-11-02 20:57:10 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988753     Politics of the Race Part 2: Interest Groups nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988896
  • Republican/Endorsed Hultgren:
    • NRA (out of state)
    • Campaign for Working Families
    • Illinois Federation for Right to Life
    • Business-Industry Political Action Committee
  • Shows that most of his endorsements are from groups of people that share his ideological stances - people that are pro life, support businesses, and the 2nd amendment - and they want to get him into office so that he could pass laws and vote for laws in their favor.

    • Democratic/Endorsed Underwood:
      • American Nurses Association
      • Broader Representation Advocacy Team (BRAT-PAC)
      • Congressional Black Caucus PAC
      • End Citizens United
      • Feminist Majority Political Action Committee 
      • Illinois AFL-CIO
      • National Organization for Women
      • Planned Parenthood Action Fund (out of state)
      • #VOTEPROCHOICE
      • Women Under Forty Political Action Committee
    • She's endorsed by more liberal groups that align with her ideology. Many support her because they want her to represent their views while in office: pro choice, expand healthcare, against separating illegal families at the border
    ]]>     2018-11-02 20:57:23 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/299988896     Politics of the Race: General Facts s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300215218
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) headlined a rally in support of Underwood.
  •  Independence USA PAC reported spending $690,000 on a digital and television ad campaign supporting Underwood and opposing Hultgren.
  • House Speaker Paul Ryan (R) made a campaign appearance alongside Hultgren in Spring Grove.

    • Randy Hultgren has raised $2 million and spent $1.3 million
    • Lauren Underwood has raised $3.9 million and spent $2.7 million

    Polls:
    • NY Times/Siena College Oct 3 - Oct 8
      • 501 likely voters
      • 47% Hultgren
      • 43% Underwood
      • Margin of error: +-4.6
      • According to the poll, they voted +4 Trump in the 2016 election
    • NY Times/Siena College Oct 31 - Nov 4
      • 428 likely voters
      • +-5 Margin of Error
      • 49% Underwood
      • 43% Hultgren
    • Public Policy Polling April 16 -17 2018
      • 682 people
      • 3.8 margin of error
      • in hypothetical matchup underwood recieves 41 and hultgren recieves 45
      • 52 are excited to vote and plan to cast their ballots for her
      • 40 support hultgren

    ]]>     2018-11-04 17:37:47 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300215218     Prediction s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300250814 Randy Hultgren is more likely to win the election because the demographics of the district are more likely to vote in his favor and because of their political stances.
    The demographics of Illinois 14 show that the majority of the voters are white, married and from the middle class. These demographics primarily tend to vote Republican because of its conservative stances that focus on safety, such as having the right to carry guns for safety, protecting people from human trafficking. Also, many small business owners are from the middle class population, making them more likely to vote for Hultgren.
    The candidates' political stances might be an important issue that drives people's voting behavior. People who don't qualify for Obamacare feel the pressure of rising healthcare costs and might want to remove it, because they feel that it's not relevant to them, and focus more on something like keeping their families safe from human trafficking. Many others who need cheaper healthcare might side with Underwood to expand it. However, Underwood needs a significant amount of votes to overcome the fact that historically, Hultgren has been voted into office. Hultgren has an advantage over Underwood because his incumbency gives him the recognition that Underwood doesn't have.]]>     2018-11-04 21:25:07 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300250814     Texas Senate Race nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300253842 2018-11-04 21:46:10 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300253842 :Candidate: nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300254172 Beto O'Rourke
    • Democrat
    • Previously represented Texas's 16th Congressional District

    ]]>     2018-11-04 21:49:01 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300254172     :Candidate: nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300254260 Ted Cruz
    • Republican
    • Incumbent
    • Ran against Trump in 2016 Presidential Election
    ]]>     2018-11-04 21:49:44 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300254260     nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300256692 2018-11-04 22:06:44 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300256692 Illinois Voter Registration Laws nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300350119 Must be:
    • US citizen
    • Resident for at least 30 days
    • 18 years old
    Registration is closed 27 days before the election but can apply to register through the guidelines of the grace period registration
    ]]>     2018-11-05 08:25:45 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300350119     Texas Demographics nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300514792
  • 70.4% white american
  • 64% Evangelical Protestant
  • 11.8% African American
  • 3.8% Asian American
  • 0.7% Indian american
  • 0.1 Hawaiian 
  • 37.6% Hispanics(of any race
  • non-Hispanic white(45.3)
    • ]]>     2018-11-05 15:17:17 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300514792     Texas Voting Registration Laws nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300514919
  • Be 18 years or older by election day.
  • be a united state Citizen
  • be a resident of Texas
  • not a felon if so completed terms of the jail sentence 
  • mentally capable 
  • submit on application in hand or by mail.
  • photo id
    • ]]>     2018-11-05 15:17:30 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300514919     Beto O'Rourke Campaign Ad nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300517379 2018-11-05 15:21:34 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300517379 Politics of the Campaign nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300520989 Polls:
    • UT Tyler Polling Center Oct 15 -Oct 28
      • 1,033 people
      • 46% Cruz
      • 39% O'Rourke
      • +-3.0 Margin of error
    • Reuters Oct 12 - Oct 18
      • 49% Cruz
      • 44% O'Rourke
      • Margin of Error +-3.2
      • 1,298 people sampled
    • Quinnipiac University Oct 22 - Oct 28
      • 51% Cruz
      • 46% O'Rourke
      • Margin of error: +-3.5
      • 1,078 people sampled
    ]]>     2018-11-05 15:27:11 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300520989     Texas Voter Demographics nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300521564 Voter Demographics:
    Majority of the voters are:
    • older than 65
    • white
    • Median income: $53,000
    • not college graduates
    2016 presidential election 
    • 52. 23% vote republican
    • 43.24% voted republican
    • Ted Cruz has an 80% chance of winning 
    • Beto O'Rourke has a 25% chance of winning.
    ]]>     2018-11-05 15:28:01 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300521564     Citations nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300521920  
    “Texas Secretary of State.” Voter Registration, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/vr/index.shtml.

    “Republican National Committee.” GOP, The Republican National Committee, www.gop.com/.

    “The Democrats.” The Democrats, The Democratic Party, democrats.org/.
     
    Albertson, Bethany. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in Texas.” Brookings, Brookings, 2 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/11/01/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-texas/.

    Cobler, Nicole. “Where Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Stand in the Debate over Gun Control.” Dallas News, Dallas News, 9 Mar. 2018, www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/03/09/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-stand-debate-gun-control.

    “Immigration.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/issue/immigration/.

    McDermott, Nathan. “Beto O'Rourke Told PACs to Stay out of His Race. They Aren't Listening.” CNN, Cable News Network, 13 May 2018, 9:19 PM ET, www.cnn.com/2018/05/12/politics/beto-orourke-texas-senate-pac-spending/index.html.

    OnTheIssues.org. “Texas Senator Ted Cruz On the Issues.” Ted Cruz on the Issues, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Ted_Cruz.htm.

    O'Rourke, Beto. “Healthcare.” Beto for Senate, Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/issue/healthcare/.

    Svitek, Patrick. “Cruz Allies Ramp up for November TV Battle with O'Rourke.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 9 Aug. 2018,  www.texastribune.org/2018/08/09/ted-cruz-allies-ramp-november-tv-battle-beto-orourke/.

    “Texas Senate 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2.

    “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/78533/beto-orourke. 

    “Ted Cruz on Health Care.” Ted Cruz on Health Care, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/Social/Ted_Cruz_Health_Care.htm.
    ]]>     2018-11-05 15:28:30 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300521920     Ted Cruz Campaign Ad nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300660212 2018-11-05 18:50:46 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300660212 Prediction s1699731 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300784191 Ted Cruz is more likely to win because the demographics of the electorate and because of polling predictions. 
    The demographics of the voters in Texas are mainly white, over the age of 65, and not college graduates, and these demographics tend to vote Republican. The previous Texas election in 2016 showed that Republicans are more likely to win. Cruz also has an advantage in that no Democrat has been elected to statewide positions since 1994. Ted Cruz is also an incumbent and has connections through his life experience as a politician in Washington DC. 
    The polls show that Cruz is more likely to win. The polls have a margin of error of around 3, showing that the polls are more reliable. In every poll we looked at, Cruz had a higher percentage than O'Rourke. In the polls we cited, Cruz had at at least 5% more support from the populations sampled, showing that O'Rourke's chances of winning is unlikely.
    Something that makes this election stand out is that O'Rourke has collected a higher amount of donations than Cruz, showing that he does have a chance of winning this election because of that support. However, most of the populations that support O'Rourke are minority populations such as the Hispanic population in Texas, which tend to have a very low voter turnout. For O'Rourke to win this campaign, he'd have to change the electorate by a lot, and he can achieve this slim chance of winning by convincing more of Texas's minority populations and younger people to vote for him.]]>     2018-11-06 00:38:52 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300784191     O'Rourke Political Stances nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300800922
  • Immigration
    • supports immediate citizenship of DREAMers
      • supported legislation that would legalize Dreamer immigrants via military service
    • supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
    • wants to close private immigration prisons and detention centers
    • supports allowing refugees to state their claims of oppression and be granted due process under US laws
  • Gun Control
    • introduced legislature promoting stricter background checks in gun purchases
      • wants universal background checks
    • wants to pass a ban on assault weapons
  • Healthcare
    • supports expanding Medicaid
    • supports rewriting Obamacare to stabilize insurance markets
    • supports lowering premiums and prescription drug costs
    • universal healthcare coverage

    • ]]>     2018-11-06 02:28:11 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300800922     Politics of the Race: Funding and Endorsements nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300801253 As of October 17:
    • Ted Cruz has raised $40 million and spent $33 million
    • Beto O'Rourke has raised $69 million and spent $59 million
    https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

    Pacs and Committees that support Ted Cruz:
    • Americans for Legal Immigration
    • National Rifle Association
    • Tea Party Patriots Citizens fund
    • Texas Alliance for Life
    • Young Conservatives for Texas

    Cruz is backed by Texans Are, a super PAC - will pay for TV, radio and digital ads

    Interest Groups that Support O'Rourke:
    • American Federation of Government Employees
    • Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
    • End Citizens United
    • Feminist Majority Political Action Committee
    • MoveOn.org Political Action
    • Planned Parenthood Action Fund
    • Texas AFL-CIO
    O'Rourke is backed by the super PACs called the Democratic Coalition, and the Fire Ted Cruz PAC

    These endorsements are from groups that are ideologically similar to the candidate's ideologies. By providing the candidates with the money they need for the campaign, the interest groups hope that the candidate will support and create legislation in favor of the interest groups. The views and influences of interest groups don't necessary represent the population as a whole, so it isn't as democratic. However, the interest groups help a candidate become aware of underrepresented issues in their community.
    ]]>     2018-11-06 02:30:43 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300801253     Cruz Political Stances nabihazaman26 https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300808432
  • Immigration
    • supports Trump's call to build a wall
    • wants stricter enforcement of immigration laws
  • Gun Control
    • doesn't support background checks on gun purchases
    • opposes raising age restrictions for long guns, which is 18
    • supports 2nd Amendment's right to self defense clause
    • sponsored a bill that would allow gun owners to use a concealed carry permit anywhere in the country
    • teachers should be allowed to carry guns inside the classroom
  • Healthcare        
    • repeal Obama care 
    • lead people in order to repeal Obama care
    • wants to reform FDA to approve drugs faster
    • don't think that government should be involved in healthcare; families should decide how to what's best for themselves.

    • ]]>     2018-11-06 03:18:48 UTC https://padlet.com/nabihazaman26/APGov_MidtermElectionAnalysis/wish/300808432