Tenney

These seem to be in line with their party platform

 One of our main reasons for this prediction is Tenney’s position as a first-year incumbent. She has been elected and served in office prior to this election, unlike her opponent, Anthony Brindisi. Open Source quotes “With wide name recognition, and usually an insurmountable advantage in campaign cash, House incumbents typically have little trouble holding onto their seats.” Proving that candidates who currently have held a seat in office are well-funded and generally more prominent than first-time runners. In this case, Tenney is widely known in the New York 22nd district, having been already elected, and has raised significant campaign funds as well. However, something worth noting is that Brindisi has actually raised notably more campaign funds than Tenney, something that is usually not expected. 

  Next, the district’s party position is a big factor in voting results. The district leans toward Republican, having voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Ballotpedia quotes “...this district’s results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York’s 22nd Congressional District the 187th most Republican nationally.” Based on their 2016 election results and their ranking as the 187th most Republican district, it is likely that their results this year will also associate with the Republican party. Considering there are only 435 congressional districts in the US, their ranking as the 187th most Republican district is fairly high. Claudia Tenney is representing the Republican party, so, therefore, it is likely that she will win. 

  However, this is a very tight race, and there is a very real possibility that Brindisi will win. Based on the voter demographics, there are more women than men in this district. Research shows that women are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, and that would be Brindisi. In addition, Brindisi appeals to the whole Democratic base, while claiming to be a bipartisan centrist. He is able to attract more voters this way. Brindisi has been shown to be leading ahead in various polls, and, surprisingly, has more campaign funds than Tenney. Once again, this being an extremely tight race, Brindisi may also win. 

  Overall, Tenney’s role as an incumbent and a Republican candidate, along with the district’s stand with the Republican party, lead us to believe that Tenney will pave the way forward in this election.