Texas 7th District by Erik Lebek

District Background

20lebeke — 2018-10-24 16:46:53 UTC

Current Governor

20mannixl — 2018-10-24 16:51:00 UTC

Greg Abbott (R) - Assumed office January 20, 2015

Current House of Representatives Member

20wrightj1 — 2018-10-24 16:52:54 UTC

John Culberson (R) - Member of the House since 2001

Demographics of District

20lebeke — 2018-10-24 16:53:06 UTC

800,081 population
50/50 male/female
42% White
14% Black
11% Asian
30% Hispanic
264,267 registered voters
56.17% Republican
43.83% Democrat
<1% Independent

Political Representation

20mannixl — 2018-10-24 17:00:57 UTC

7th District Votes Republican

(2000-2018)
Presidential Elections - 57.04% Republican on average. Republicans have won every time.
Senate Elections - 59.15% Republican on average. Republicans have one every time.
House Elections - Majority Republican, balance of power was in democrats favor in 2000 and 2002. Republicans have had control ever since 2004 by a margin of at least 6 members.

Demographics of Texas

20lebeke — 2018-10-24 17:13:33 UTC

28.3 million population
50/50 male/female
42% White
12% Black
39% Hispanic
5% Asian
15.8 million registered voters
52.2% Republican
43.2% Democrat
4.6% Indpedendent

Voters Guide

20mannixl — 2018-10-24 17:16:38 UTC

Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

20lebeke — 2018-11-01 18:17:16 UTC

Grew up in Houston, Texas
Attended Southern Methodist University
Obtained a law degree from South Texas College of Law in 1989
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (Chairman)
Subcommittee on Homeland Security
Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Caucuses
Raised $2,967,941
Tends to favor lower taxes; especially small business taxes
Favors border reform and wants to end sanctuary cities, reform visas, and provide a solution to the DACA population
Small Individual Contributions: $66,505
Large Individual Contributions $1,146,708
PAC Contributions $1,233,208
Candidate self-financing $0
Other $521,521

20mannixl — 2018-11-01 18:24:25 UTC

20mannixl — 2018-11-01 18:27:50 UTC

Lizzie Fletcher (D)

20lebeke — 2018-11-01 18:28:20 UTC

Grew up in Houston, Texas
Attended Kenyon College
Worked as a conference manager for Bear Stearns
Worked as special projects director for the Alley Theatre
Obtained her law degree from William & Mary in 2006
Raised $5,325,090
Would work for stricter gun laws including banning of automatic rifles, raising the age to buy a gun to 21, banning bump stocks and more
Believes in more secure borders
Small Individual Contributions $747,364
Large Individual Contributions $3,875,678
PAC Contributions $270,066
Candidate self-financing $18,495
Other $413,488

Horse Race

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 17:59:12 UTC

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:03:31 UTC

Interpretation of Polls

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:04:42 UTC

For the most part, the polls have been very split. However in three of the four polls shown, the Republicans win by a slight margin. As election day got closer and closer, the margin for Culberson seemed to decrease.

Summary of Debates

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:12:03 UTC

The debates that these two candidates have been a part of have mainly centered around immigration and natural disasters. Both of which are important when considering where the district is located. Interestingly enough, both candidates tend to agree that more border protection is needed and illegal immigration loopholes must be stopped. Fletcher tends to blame Culberson for Houston's shortcomings in the recent hurricanes claiming that he has had years to do something about them. In each of the debates Culberson seemed to have the upper hand as he was able to counter Fletcher's accusations of being inactive while in office by claiming credit for certain regulation.

Media Coverage

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:16:24 UTC

This race is primarily being covered on local Houston TV stations, Houston newspapers, and some articles can be found online. From both Fox News and The New York Times the key issue in this race is how the congressman or woman will try to mitigate the effects of a hurricane and how he or she will be proactive in doing so. This is obviously a major issue because Hurricane Harvey was so devastating to the Houston area. Surprisingly, Fox News and The New York Times covered the race from an objective standpoint. Both news sources project that Culberson would have the upper-hand by a slight margin.

Conclusions and Results

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:25:03 UTC

Who do we think will win?

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:25:20 UTC

We think that the incumbent John Culberson will win this election. First we think this is going to be the outcome because Culberson is the incumbent. This is an obvious reason to predict this outcome but it should not be overlooked. There are many advantages that come with being the incumbent: franking privilege, name recognition, and credit claiming. The second reason we believe that is that in the last election Culberson won by a particularly large margin of 12.3%. Another reason why we think he will win is because this district has tended to vote Republican in past elections and so is the state as a whole. Also, the types of people living in the district are very similar to Culberson and tend to think like him. These people are affluent Republicans known as "Bush Republicans" as opposed to the so-called "Redneck-Republicans".

Who Won?

20lebeke — 2018-11-06 18:28:01 UTC

Lizzie Fletcher ended up winning the election. Surprisingly, the election was not very close either. Fletcher won by a margin of exactly 5% and over 12,000 votes. We think this is because this district has seen an increase in minority population since the last election and the "Bush Republicans" are becoming a smaller fraction of this district's population. This would have helped her chances because these types of people tend to be anti-Trump and Fletcher is opposed to Trump as well. In addition, Culberson's campaign was endorsed by Mike Pence an obvious Trump supporter which may have caused him to lose the election.

20lebeke — 2018-11-11 19:40:32 UTC

Current Senators

20lebeke — 2018-11-16 01:49:46 UTC

Ted Cruz (R) since 2013

John Cornyn (R) since 2002

Possible Connections

20lebeke — 2018-11-16 01:53:15 UTC

Both candidates are in favor of border reform, specifically more secure borders

Fletcher has had to raise more money because she is not the incumbent and therefore she does not have lots of recognition. She has also had a more difficult time raising funds than Culberson