Is Chicago crime out of control, as Trump claims? The data says no>nt and the FBI doesn't support his claims.

Chicago has long had a national reputation for violent crime, particularly for gun violence and homicide. Like all other major American cities, Chicago crime has fluctuated over the years. Rises and drops can happen for many reasons, and a notable recent spike in crime came from the COVID-19 pandemic.

But a CBS News analysis of FBI and CPD data from 2024 found that Chicago is not the most crime-ridden city in the United States. It's not even in the top 50 cities for violent crime.

In fact, data shows that among American cities with populations of 100,000 or more, Chicago ranks 80th overall for violent crime per capita.

Violent crime falls into several categories as tracked by CPD and the FBI: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery and aggravated assault and/or battery.

There have been some discrepancies in FBI and CPD data since the reporting system changed in 2021; at that time, the FBI tracked certain violent crimes using a definition different than CPD. As a result, the FBI recorded significantly less aggravated assault/battery crimes in 2021 than CPD did. Because of that, CBS News Chicago and the CBS News data team are using a combination of FBI and CPD data to provide the fullest picture with the most accuracy.

In 2024, data shows there were 18,327 instances of violent crime recorded in Chicago. With a population just shy of 2.7 million people, the city recorded 695 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people.

By contrast Memphis, Tennessee ranks first for per capita violent crime of all U.S. cities with 2,501 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people.

The top five cities for violent crime nationwide are Memphis, Tennessee; Oakland, California; Detroit, Michigan; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Baltimore, Maryland.

In fact, per capita Chicago doesn't even rank as the most violent city in Illinois. It comes in fourth, behind Peoria (1,345 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people), Rockford (1,080 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people) and Springfield (901 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people).

American organized crime of the 1920

The lack of enforcement of these new laws, the tremendous demand for alcohol, and the growth of organized criminal enterprises all led to severe increases in crime throughout the country. During the 1920s, across all fifty states, alcohol-related crimes dramatically increased over the course of the decade: Arrests for law violations associated with Prohibition increased by 102 percent; personal violence and violent crimes, such as homicide, assault, and battery, increased by a total of 13 percent. The total number of federal convictions increased by 561 percent, and the federal prison population increased by 366 percent, which entailed an increase in the operating costs of federal prisons.

During the 1920s, violent acts became part of the normal operating procedure for members of criminal organizations, most often directly related to disputes over distribution areas. Countless organized crime gangs would fight to establish dominance over a particular geographical area and control the illegal markets there; Chicago alone saw over four hundred gang-related murders per year. The decade’s most widely publicized act of violence that can be directly linked with organized crime is Chicago’s Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre in 1929, which was partially in retaliation for previous crimes and partially the result of a struggle for control of illegal enterprises such as gambling and alcohol distribution. On February 14, Al Capone’s South Side Italian gang lured members of the North Side Irish gang, controlled by George “Bugs” Moran, into an ambush that resulted in the deaths of seven people.

Another by-product of the growth of organized crime was that members of criminal organizations became power brokers in the affairs of mainstream society and legitimate businesses. While members of organized crime supplied the demand for alcohol, they also established strong and powerful ties to the community. These ties were enhanced by the development and control of speakeasies, underground establishments that dealt in illegal activity and were owned and operated by members of organized crime. Speakeasies primarily flourished as a place to buy alcohol, but they often provided patrons with easy access to gambling and prostitution as well and became centers of social gatherings for many of the wealthy and powerful individuals of a particular community. Having social access to these individuals allowed criminal organizations to develop political connections in their communities, which eventually led to widespread political corruption throughout many of the urban communities in the United States.