https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie Made with serendipity en-us 2018-10-22 08:12:25 UTC 2018-12-19 08:52:39 UTC hello@padlet.com nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332474 Three main functions of quantitative models in ecosystem science:
-Synthesis and integration of data (if they make sense and fit together)
-Guiding observation and experiment
-Predicting or forecasting the future]]> 2018-10-22 08:17:38 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332474 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332833
Hypothetico-deductive Model- only work reliably in closed system.

Equipment had advanced and therefore increase the experiment complexity
 
Omit Irrelevant 
-Irrelevant at one point might become relevant in the future or vice versa.
- Exclude relevant factors due to various reason (lack of time or analytic data).

Even law equation is open as there is no logical ways to determine the assumption is correct and based on prior experience.

Besides, well measured model can fail to make reliable prediction as some important relevant parameter has not yet to be recognized.



]]> 2018-10-22 08:18:28 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332833 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332995 -complex natural system, more different components is needed to the model
-more uncertainty 
-complexity can improve the accuracy of the model output by minimizing the impact of errors in any one variable
-systematic bias from individual variables decreased as the number of variables in a model increased. - but the uncertainty might increase when errors from each variables are accumulated]]> 2018-10-22 08:19:02 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295332995 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333404 2018-10-22 08:19:25 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333404 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333623 - natural sciences with complex non repetitive have no record of predictive success
- short term prediction : mean to evaluate & compare models
- long term prediction : cannot be tested and can’t improve scientific understanding ]]> 2018-10-22 08:20:03 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333623 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333739 Confident assertions from the scientific community will soon be refuted. ]]> 2018-10-22 08:20:27 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295333739 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334189 1. Non-deterministic
- a range of plausible values
- probabilistic forecasting is used as specific, quantative prediction of a complex system is difficult 
2. Involving of spatial ambiguity
- weather can be very local
- weather models have been repeatedly adjusted , unlike models being built in aid of public policy]]> 2018-10-22 08:22:11 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334189 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334608 Factors to make accurate and precise prediction
1. Measurable parameter
2. Highly repetitive 
3. Enormous database]]> 2018-10-22 08:23:41 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334608 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334653 -The ideal system of a 'law' do not exist
-Can only make adjustments and modifications based on past experience and failed attempts]]> 2018-10-22 08:23:51 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295334653 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295335661 Heuristic value is less well informed]]> 2018-10-22 08:27:30 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295335661 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295337053 Limited to:
-Short-duration
-Repetitive system
-Small numbers of measurable variables

]]> 2018-10-22 08:31:26 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295337053 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295339078 2018-10-22 08:37:49 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295339078 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295340410 -Considering the most likely consequences will be of alternative possible actions
-Give an informed appraisal of the possible outcomes of the choices
-Avoid issuing a quantitative outlook]]> 2018-10-22 08:42:29 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295340410 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353510 2018-10-22 09:33:35 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353510 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353546 2018-10-22 09:33:46 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353546 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353587 2018-10-22 09:33:58 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353587 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353672 -crop model
-climate model
-flood inundation model
-landscape model]]> 2018-10-22 09:34:19 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/295353672 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303139976 2018-11-12 08:14:37 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303139976 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140174 -It is impossible to demonstrate the truth of any proposition, except in a closed system.
-Models are never a closed system as they require input parameters that are incompletely known.
-The scale on which input parameters are measured is typically much smaller, and the relation between those measurements and larger scale model parameters is always uncertain and generally unknown
-The embedded assumptions rendered a system to be open
-Model results are always underdetermined by the available data]]> 2018-11-12 08:15:30 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140174 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140194 -donates the establishment of legitimacy 
- useful for assertions about a generic computer code but its misleading if used to refer to actual model results (may/not be valid
-its used to interchangeably with verification to indicate the model predictions are consistent with observations
-often misleading thinking verification and validation are the same
 ]]> 2018-11-12 08:15:37 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140194 j_nsk_1408 https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140234 - The manipulation of the independent variables to obtain a match between the observed and distribution of dependent variables.]]> 2018-11-12 08:15:48 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140234 nurul_flower https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140313 -A logical fallacy of “affirming the consequent” would be committed if a model is verified because empirical data match a predicted outcome.
- The greater the number in confirming the observed data, the flaw will be smaller.
-The confirming data will not demonstrate the veracity of the hypothesis/model but only support the probability.
More complex observations will always have more than one theory can be explained.Thus, verification of any hypothesis will be impossible.]]> 2018-11-12 08:16:07 UTC https://padlet.com/nurul_flower/iij0e8s46uie/wish/303140313