Midterm Election Analysis by https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2 AP Government en-us 2018-11-01 21:00:26 UTC 2025-04-17 18:06:29 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Manbag.png Candidates quintanakaren00 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300272918 Dave Brat
  • Incumbent
  • “As the only Ph.D. economist in Congress, Dave Brat is uniquely qualified to tackle the current budget crisis we face in America.   Serving on the House Budget Committee, and as a member of the House Freedom Caucus, Dave has been leading the charge in Congress for a more fiscally responsible budget process.”
  •  Dave, “As the only Ph.D. economist in Congress, Dave Brat is uniquely qualified to tackle the current budget crisis we face in America.   Serving on the House Budget Committee, and as a member of the House Freedom Caucus, Dave has been leading the charge in Congress for a more fiscally responsible budget process.”
...
Open Seat?: No
...
Abigail Spanberger
  • Background Info: “The 7th Virginia District has long been considered solidly red, but Republicans have seen their margins shrink in recent statewide elections. As currently drawn, the district favored Republican Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by 11 percentage points in 2012. In 2016, Trump won the district by six points. In the 2017 governor’s race, Republican Ed Gillespie beat Democrat Northam by 4points.” (The Washington Post)
  • “Abigail began her career of public service as a federal law enforcement officer working narcotics and money laundering cases with the US Postal Inspection Service. Following her love of country, public service, and languages, Abigail joined the CIA as an Operations Officer. She traveled and lived abroad collecting intelligence, managing assets, and overseeing high-profile programs in service to the United States. In 2014, Abigail left government service to begin a career in the private sector and bring her and her family back home to Virginia. Working at EAB – Royall & Company, Abigail helped colleges and universities to create diverse student bodies, increase graduation rates, and break down financial barriers to higher education.”
  •  Abigail wants to help lower the cost of college and helped create a more diverse society in student bodies. “We need her in Congress, advocating on behalf of families, students, veterans and middle-class workers and pushing for common-sense policies that put people before politics.”
]]> 2018-11-05 00:01:53 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300272918 Informatrion on the State/District elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300274565 ~Demographic makeup of state/district
Population: 733,911
Gender: 48.3% Male, 51.7% Female
Race: 77.2% White, 14.5% Black, 4.1% Asian, 5% Hispanic
Unemployment: 6.5%
High school graduation rate: 90.9%
College graduation rate: 39.2%

~Voter turnout in last election (2016 Presidential Election; but might also be interesting and informative to look at the 2012 Midterm Election turnout for your district)
2016 Presidential Election: 72% voting of total registered
2012 Midterm Election: 71% voting of total registered

~Voter registration laws in that state (registration requirements, voter ID laws, voting by mail, early voting, etc.)
“Any person who is not registered to vote, but would otherwise be a qualified voter, is entitled to register to vote as provided in this chapter. Any person who is registered to vote and is a qualified voter shall be entitled to vote in the precinct where he resides.”
Online registration yes, same-day registration is a no. Voter ID: Photo ID required


]]> 2018-11-05 00:16:45 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300274565 Politics of the Race elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300274833 ~Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you.
The poll by Real Clear Politics seems credible because the sample size comes from the districts. The sources of this poll come from two credible universities and the New York Times. Each table shows the likely voters, committed voters, and more information.
 The poll by the Washington Post, the sample size seems to have 46% in favor of Spanberger and 45% in favor for Brat. The survey has margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The model based on “committed” voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The poll by The Judy Wason Center for Public Policy: 
“In our likely voter model, Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican
incumbent Dave Brat are in a statistical tie, 46% Spanberger, 45% Brat.
2. In our second model, restricted to the most committed voters, Spanberger has a
3-point lead, 48%-45%, just inside the margin of error.
3. A 16-point “enthusiasm gap” boosts challenger Spanberger, as 78% of
Democrats are “very enthusiastic” about voting, versus 62% of Republicans.
4. While 47% of voters in the 7th District approve of the job President Trump is
doing, 51% disapprove; 30% strongly approve, while 43% strongly disapprove.
5. In the U.S. Senate contest, likely voters in the GOP-leaning 7th District favor
incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Corey Stewart, 48%-43%.”
I feel like this last poll was the most accurate and credible. 

~Find at least 1 campaign ad from each candidate.
Abigail Spanberger: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/abigail-spanberger-for-congress-vetted--campaign-2018/2018/09/11/d0b5c288-b5d9-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_video.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.126f464bdb2c
Dave Brat: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/dave-brat-nothing--campaign-2018/2018/09/18/2fdaea8e-bb72-11e8-adb8-01125416c102_video.html?utm_term=.fdb9f6946c39


~Which interest groups are spending money? Any from outside of the state
CONTRIBUTORS 2017 - 2018 for Dave Brat:
 House Freedom Fund $60,185
Altria Group $16,250
Wells Fargo $12,200
Dp Fox Ventures $10,800
UM Holdings $10,800
Management Services Corp $10,700
American Kidney Stone Management $10,000
Koch Industries $10,000
National Auto Dealers Assn $10,000
Norfolk Southern $10,000
Prosperity Action $10,000
Solers Inc $9,500
Page Auto Group $9,000
Dominion Resources $8,950
Huizenga Holdings $8,700
Uline Inc $8,600
National Assn of Home Builders $8,500
Ariel Corp $8,100
Bdc Capital $8,100
JW Childs Assoc $8,100
Old Dominion Insulation Inc $8,100
Power Monitors $8,100
Virginia Cancer Institute $8,100
CONTRIBUTORS 2017 - 2018 for Abigail Spanberger:
Virginia Commonwealth University $38,609
Alphabet Inc $31,170
Weinstein Properties $26,800
Capital One Financial $26,269
Stanford University $26,191
University of California $23,549
Royall & Co $22,353
Dominion Resources $18,168
Markel Corp $17,467
EMILY's List $16,400
University of Richmond $14,900
Commonwealth of Virginia $13,743
End Citizens United $13,525
AT&T Inc $11,454
US Dept of State $11,263
McGuireWoods LLP $11,016
Bain Capital $10,800
Bessemer Venture Partners $10,800
Chicago Trading Co $10,800
New Richmond Ventures $10,800

~Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016?
Clinton (49.9%) v. Trump (45.0%)


~Who has endorsed your candidates?  Why does this matter?
Abigail Spanberger:Human Rights Campaign, Planned Parenthood, Joe Biden
Dave Brat: Washington Times, Mike Pence, National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund
-These are important because they represent what organizations and ideals the candidates will align with given she is elected. We also get to know what candidates the organizations support. 

~List 3 major issues the candidates are debating.
Taxes and Spending, Healthcare, Immigration
What are their positions?:
TAXES AND SPENDING
Spanberger: organizes labor, no tax cuts 
Brat: supply-side economics, low taxes, supports balanced budget amendment
HEALTHCARE
Spanberger: protect affordable care act, 
Brat: market based solutions to healthcare that limit federal involvement
IMMIGRATION
Spanberger: opposed Trump’s travel ban
Brat: supports funding for mexican wall, 
Are these positions in line with their party platform?
Yes, all of these positions align with their respective democratic and republican parties. 



]]> 2018-11-05 00:19:46 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300274833 Candidates quintanakaren00 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300275049 Ted Cruz
  • Incumbent
  • “Today the Republicans have controlled the governorship for 18 straight years, and both Senate seats for 19.  The Democratic Party still maintains strength, and may even regain majority party status in the future.  Sen. Ted Cruz faces a credible challenge against Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and the state swung heavily toward Hillary Clinton last fall.  The state is also, contrary to many expectations, heavily urban, so a swing toward Democrats in the suburbs could have an outsize effect here.  O’Rourke starts as the underdog, but this one is worth watching.”
  •  “Born on December 22, 1970, American conservative politician Ted Cruz grew up in Houston, Texas, earning his bachelor's at Princeton University and going on to Harvard Law School. Working as an attorney for some time, Cruz later served as an adviser on the 2000 presidential campaign of George W. Bush. In 2012 he won election to the U.S. Senate with the support of the Tea Party and took office the following year, going on to orchestrate a governmental shutdown in opposition to Obamacare. In 2015, he announced that he was running for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.” 
  • Defended our Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms
    Led the fight to stop amnesty, and championed creative solutions to fund the border 
    security we need to keep us safe
    Passed legislation to fund and guide NASA
    Advocated for our military


Beto O'Rourke
*Beto: “After graduating from Columbia University, Beto worked in New York for a few years before deciding to move back to his hometown and start a small technology company. El Paso wasn’t the most likely place to start a company like this, but thanks to the work of some really talented El Pasoans, the company was a success. Over the years Stanton Street hired dozens of people in high skill, high-wage jobs that one might not expect to see in a border community.
Outside of work, Beto became deeply involved in the civic, business and community efforts in El Paso. He ran for El Paso City Council in 2005 and served for two terms before running for U.S. Congress in 2012, taking on an eight-term incumbent and winning. He knocked on thousands of doors and had real conversations, face-to-face, with the voters in El Paso.”

 Beto: “He has made it a priority to work across the aisle to secure bipartisan support for his legislation, because Beto knows our country is at its best when we can put party aside to work together, build consensus and find common ground.

Much of Beto’s focus has been on improving the ability for veterans to get the health care — and other earned benefits — that they need. He’s also been focused on curbing the influence of corporate money in Congress. He helped introduce the “No PAC Act,” which would stop candidates for federal office from relying on PACs to bankroll their campaigns.”





]]> 2018-11-05 00:22:01 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300275049 Citations: elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300275621 Citations

46 percent of likely voters in favor of Spanberger and 45 percent for Brat

-https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2818%2931934-2

-“Campaign Wire: A Guide to the 2018 Midterm Elections.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-2018-midterms

-“Campaign Wire: A Guide to the 2018 Midterm Elections.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-2018-midterms.


Dave Brat- Raised: $2,707,910 , Spent: $1,897,920
]]> 2018-11-05 00:27:25 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300275621 Information on the State/District elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300276981
  • Demographic makeup of state/district
    • Population: 28,704,330
    Gender: 49.6% Male, 50.4% Female
    Race: 74.8% Caucasian, 11.9% African American, 5.8% other races, 4.4% Asian, 2.5% two or more races, and .5% Native North Americans.
    Unemployment: 6.4%
    High school graduation rate: 80.20%
    College graduation rate: 25.48%

    • Voter registration laws in that state (registration requirements, voter ID laws, voting by mail, early voting, etc.)
    1. Be 18 years or older on election day,
    2. Be a United States citizen,
    3. Be a resident of the county where the application is submitted,
    4. Not be finally convicted of a felony or, if so, have completed the terms of the jail sentence, probation or parole, and
    5. Have not been declared by a court exercising probate jurisdiction to be either totally mentally incapacitated or partially mentally incapacitated without the right to vote.


     
    • Voter turnout in last election (2016 Presidential Election; but might also be interesting and informative to look at the 2012 Midterm Election turnout for your district) 

    ]]>     2018-11-05 00:37:30 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300276981     Politics of the Race quintanakaren00 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300277489
  • Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you.
    • For the Emerson poll, the percent error is +/-3.7%, the sample size is 781. This is for the Texas senate ballot test, Ted has 50% of the vote while Beto has 47% of the vote, and 1% towards Neal and 2% towards undecided. I believe this poll is credible. 
    For the CNN poll, this poll was very clear with their answers and results. The first poll had a total of 862, and question one asked “If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat, and Ted
    Cruz, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for –
    Q1a. As of today, do you lean more toward?” The results for Beto were 48% and for Ted 50%, none of the above was 2%, and no opinion was 3%. This poll had much more details in it and is very credible. 
    For The Texas Tribune, “Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Margin of error = ± 3.22 percentage points. Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, October 2018”. The poll states 51% for Ted and  Beto 45%, for 2% for Neal and someone else each, this poll is not consistent like the other polls, so it’s not as credible as the other two.



    • Find at least 1 campaign ad from each candidate

    Ted Cruz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVebl3w3jEY

    Beto O’Rourke: https://www.facebook.com/betoorourke/videos/238846943457943/


    • Which interest groups are spending money? Any from outside of the state

    Top 20 contributors:

    Ted:

    1 Woodforest Financial Group $167,201 $167,201 $0
    2 Senate Conservatives Fund $95,861 $85,861 $10,000
    3 Lockheed Martin $90,633 $50,633 $40,000
    4 Sullivan & Cromwell $87,250 $87,250 $0
    5 Berkshire Hathaway $84,308 $54,308 $30,000
    6 Avalon Advisors $70,900 $70,900 $0
    7 Stewart Information Services $68,700 $68,700 $0
    8 NorPAC $66,050 $66,050 $0
    9 Quantum Energy Partners $59,700 $59,700 $0
    10 RIDA Development $56,600 $56,600 $0
    11 Redman Management $56,000 $56,000 $0
    12 Delta Air Lines $53,788 $41,288 $12,500
    13 Club for Growth $52,575 $52,575 $0
    14 Stewart & Stevenson $52,400 $52,400 $0
    15 Insperity $51,975 $51,975 $0
    16 Jennmar Corp $50,800 $50,800 $0
    17 Greenberg Traurig LLP $49,200 $46,700 $2,500
    18 Herzog Contracting $48,200 $48,200 $0
    18 Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher $48,200 $48,200 $0
    20 Credit Suisse Group $47,600 $47,600 $0


    Beto:

    1 University of Texas $365,312 $365,312 $0
    2 Alphabet Inc $227,024 $227,024 $0
    3 J Street $139,734 $139,734 $0
    4 University of California $131,404 $131,404 $0
    5 AT&T Inc $117,104 $117,104 $0
    6 Baylor College of Medicine $103,268 $103,268 $0
    7 Apple Inc $81,930 $81,930 $0
    8 Facebook Inc $78,492 $78,492 $0
    9 Microsoft Corp $78,422 $78,422 $0
    10 Amazon.com $77,653 $77,653 $0
    11 Dell Technologies $76,525 $76,525 $0
    12 Exxon Mobil $73,161 $73,161 $0
    13 Rice University $73,022 $73,022 $0
    14 Texas A&M University $67,053 $67,053 $0
    15 Stanford University $66,668 $66,668 $0
    16 IBM Corp $61,757 $61,757 $0
    17 American Airlines Group $59,835 $59,835 $0
    18 Susman Godfrey Llp $59,726 $59,726 $0
    19 Harvard University $59,035 $59,035 $0
    20 Bank of America $47,316 $47,316 $0

    • Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016?

    Trump 52.2% v. Clinton 43.2%

    • Who has endorsed your candidates?  Why does this matter?

    Ted: National Rifle Association, Greg Abbott, Donald Trump and Mike Pence

    Beto: Houston Chronicle, Human Rights Campaign, Travis Scott B), John Brennan

    This matters because these organizations and people will represent who the elected representative will favor and also lets the voters know what sort of ideals they align with. 

    • List 3 major issues the candidates are debating.

    Immigration & Border Security, Gun Rights, Healthcare

    • What are their positions?

    Immigration

    Ted: more border security, build the wall

    Beto: pass the DREAM Act

    Gun Rights

    Ted: supports the national rifle association

    Beto: wants background checks and stop selling weapons of war

    Healthcare

    Ted: reform FDA

    Beto: expand medicare

    • Are these positions in line with their party platform?

    Yes, on all issues both of the candidates align with their parties’ morals. 



    ]]>     2018-11-05 00:41:14 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300277489     Citations elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300277670
  • 3 sources from a local newspaper (paper from the district/state)

    • -Diaz, Kevin. “Democrat Beto O'Rourke Woos Rural Texans in GOP Strongholds, Ignoring Party Playbook.” Houston Chronicle, Houston Chronicle, 11 Aug. 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Beto-O-Rourke-has-chance-of-beating-Ted-Cruz-13141321.php

    -Balcerzak, Ashley. “How a Super PAC Helping Beto O'Rourke by Bashing Ted Cruz Can Hide Who's Funding It.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 2 Nov. 2018, www.texastribune.org/2018/11/02/how-super-pac-bashing-ted-cruz-can-hide-whos-funding-it/

    -Wallace, Jeremy. “US Senate Racing Will Top $100.” PressReader.com - Connecting People Through News, 2018, www.pressreader.com/usa/houston-chronicle/20181026/281578061653090
    • 3 Public opinion polls (Pew, Gallup, media sources.

    -Ramsey, Ross. “Ted Cruz Leads Beto O'Rourke by 6 in Texas Senate Race, UT/TT Poll Finds.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 26 Oct. 2018, www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/ut-tt-poll-ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-texas-senate/

    -http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf

    -College, Emerson. “Emerson Poll: West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV.” Emerson College, 2018, www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv#.W9y8pGhKjIW
    • 3 Academic articles on the Midterms

    -“Campaign Wire: A Guide to the 2018 Midterm Elections.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-2018-midterms

    -“Campaign Wire: A Guide to the 2018 Midterm Elections.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-2018-midterms

    -Albertson, Bethany. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in Texas.” Brookings, Brookings, 1 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/11/01/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-texas/

    Beto O’Rourke - Raised: $69,099,704,   Spent: $59,162,350

    ]]>     2018-11-05 00:42:46 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300277670     Prediction elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300278098 We predict that Beto O’Rourke will win this election because he spends and receives more for his campaigning and  there is statistics that young texans voted 487% more for Beto. Based on the amounts both candidates spend and receive he has more. Articles following the election have given reliable statistics following the increase in young voters voting for Beto.
    Cruz may win this election because he is an incumbent and has more familiarity with the Texan people. He is currently leading in the polls.
    There is known evidence that people that spend more campaigning have an advantage to win the election. 


    ]]>     2018-11-05 00:45:44 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300278098     Prediction quintanakaren00 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300278160 We are predicting that Abigail Spanberger will win this election because she spent more on her campaigning and she has more credentials than Dave Brat. She tells us about what she has done throughout her career on her website page and she has more credentials  than Dave Brat shows. Based on the amounts both candidates spend and receive she has more. Brat may win this election because he is an incumbent and has more familiarity with the Virginia congressional district. He is currently leading in the polls. There is known evidence that people that spend more campaigning have an advantage to win the election. ]]> 2018-11-05 00:46:17 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300278160 Names: elizabethgerman94 https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300280281 Karen Quintana, Elizabeth German, and Alexis German]]> 2018-11-05 01:00:30 UTC https://padlet.com/quintanakaren00/iefphi8zwwx2/wish/300280281