Security Issues in the Korean Peninsula: Old and New by David

테스트1

2018-02-02 13:21:12 UTC

2018-02-03 06:25:18 UTC

Not yet. They don’t have re-entry capabilities yet.

no

2018-02-03 06:25:24 UTC

but if so, when they feel an attack from the US is imminent . but they lack second strike capability

No

2018-02-03 06:25:26 UTC

North Korea doesnt wanna be collapsed. Kim knows if he uses it he will be killed by USA aliances. K will just threat South Korea and USA.

I think so. To keep generating income I believe North Korea is forced to allow more "free market" activity due to the sanctions.

2018-02-03 06:25:29 UTC

No first strike, but may use nukes to deter actions that severely threaten Kim regime security.

2018-02-03 06:25:36 UTC

No

2018-02-03 06:25:42 UTC

If I believed otherwise I should have got on a plane by now.

2018-02-03 06:25:44 UTC

No I don’t think so.

2018-02-03 06:25:50 UTC

It will use nuclear weapons only if the ROK/US attacks first. Otherwise, no cause because it’s KJU’s way to keep his power and to gain foods, resources, etc

2018-02-03 06:26:00 UTC

I hope not! But I would say maybe the US moreso than ROK

2018-02-03 06:26:00 UTC

2018-02-03 06:26:08 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:26:11 UTC

2018-02-03 06:26:19 UTC

no they lack second trike capability

2018-02-03 06:27:16 UTC

no they lack second strike capability

If they really are capable to, I think this will only happen if North Korea is attacked(military strike first.

2018-02-03 06:27:25 UTC

No but if NK misunderstands US strategy or intention, it may use it.

2018-02-03 06:27:32 UTC

No but if NK

2018-02-03 06:27:32 UTC

yes. if they misperceive that there will be preemptive strike by the US

2018-02-03 06:27:33 UTC

Not yet

2018-02-03 06:27:56 UTC

They don’t have re-entry capabilities yet

2018-02-03 06:28:01 UTC

Yes. If they got under attack

2018-02-03 06:28:21 UTC

continuing talks btw nk sk and us

2018-02-03 06:28:42 UTC

They will not use their missiles because they will throw the world into chaos other than have the world fear them.

No

2018-02-03 06:28:54 UTC

Kim knows if he uses Nuclear weapon he will be killed by USA aliances. He will never use it.

No "bloody nose" strike. As long as the North is not attacked I don't think they will do so

2018-02-03 06:28:56 UTC

Only if put too much under pressure

2018-02-03 06:29:13 UTC

2018-02-03 06:29:15 UTC

A new and more fair sunshine policy

No at least to ROK

2018-02-03 06:29:31 UTC

They'd know the result of using missiles. It would harm the Korean peninsu

Engagemebt

2018-02-03 06:29:40 UTC

Sanctions and military defense are just two aspects, we should also engage with them diplomatically

Diplomacy

2018-02-03 06:29:40 UTC

Open constant dialogue and patience

Sanctions need to be sufficiently implemented to coerce KJU to change course, but PRC and RUS will continue to undermine sanctions. US needs to continue to pressure these key stakeholders to fully implement sanctions and maintain intl support.

2018-02-03 06:29:44 UTC

2018-02-03 06:29:45 UTC

Starting talks with NK to reduce misunderstanding about each other.

No first stike from the us/rok

2018-02-03 06:29:47 UTC

2018-02-03 06:29:52 UTC

2018-02-03 06:30:01 UTC

No

2018-02-03 06:30:17 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:30:19 UTC

2018-02-03 06:30:26 UTC

No, they will not because they are not a single powerful as the US and they will probably never be

Regime change would likely cause huge instability and chaos. I belive especially the neighbour countries are aware of a possible refugee crisis as well as possible new power dynamics in East Asia.

2018-02-03 06:30:31 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:30:43 UTC

The international pressure on KJU behavior is already showing

2018-02-03 06:30:51 UTC

Make them feel safe thus military actions ate not necessary

Yes

2018-02-03 06:30:56 UTC

No

2018-02-03 06:30:56 UTC

2018-02-03 06:31:02 UTC

more communication channels between top decision-makers of involving parties

2018-02-03 06:31:02 UTC

2018-02-03 06:31:04 UTC

Make nuclearize south korea, japan. By doing so we can avoid catastrophe.

2018-02-03 06:31:10 UTC

Make NK feel safe. Easen up sanctions

2018-02-03 06:31:10 UTC

Umm

2018-02-03 06:31:13 UTC

Kim never abandon his nuclear weapon. If he dies, North korea will be changed:

2018-02-03 06:31:18 UTC

It depends on the changes that happen

Yes

2018-02-03 06:31:20 UTC

They would use the nuclear just

Possible - but why should we just wait and watch until they impove the technical issues?

2018-02-03 06:31:21 UTC

Yes. Anyting is possible. but kju

2018-02-03 06:31:38 UTC

While the consequence

2018-02-03 06:32:05 UTC

I don’t think so

2018-02-03 06:32:10 UTC

I think it just makes life more difficult for average North Koreans. We need new ideas

2018-02-03 06:32:14 UTC

Yes as part of a comprehensive strategy that includes other measures

2018-02-03 06:32:24 UTC

Not really.

2018-02-03 06:32:30 UTC

Suppirting NK will eases the situation.

2018-02-03 06:32:33 UTC

No but sanctions are needed to show that a state with nuclear ambition could be punished by internatioanl community in order to prevent nuclear proliferation.

2018-02-03 06:32:35 UTC

High

No

2018-02-03 06:32:58 UTC

No at least to ROK

2018-02-03 06:33:21 UTC

They'd know the result of using missiles that the Korean peninsula will be devastated

Yes

2018-02-03 06:33:27 UTC

Competition between Korea&US alliance vs China to influence NK

2018-02-03 06:33:32 UTC

President Moon

2018-02-03 06:33:33 UTC

2018-02-03 06:33:37 UTC

The olimpycs are a great opportunity for friendly relations between the two koreas but the outcome dependent on both KJU and Trump actions

yes. especially the embargo of coal and oil since they are vital to the survival of its economy and nuke development.

2018-02-03 06:33:43 UTC

Have to show that we go together against nk. Kju will no give up nuclear weapon

2018-02-03 06:33:51 UTC

2018-02-03 06:33:53 UTC

Differs depending on regime change or regime collapse

2018-02-03 06:33:56 UTC

Huge impact on the international community.

No

2018-02-03 06:34:29 UTC

2018-02-03 06:35:02 UTC

NK can't survive only with their resources. Santion will work effectively

NO

2018-02-03 06:35:04 UTC

It’s not in the best interest of either country

2018-02-03 06:35:13 UTC

Nope sanctions will make them more stupid.

2018-02-03 06:35:17 UTC

yes if provoked

No, to respect NPT. NK is just a nuclear armed state.

2018-02-03 06:35:30 UTC

Low and

2018-02-03 06:35:32 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:35:37 UTC

maybe in the long run

2018-02-03 06:35:37 UTC

2018-02-03 06:35:50 UTC

Dialogue between ROK and DPRK preferrably without direct intervension of

The latter

2018-02-03 06:35:55 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:36:00 UTC

Partially, but he will never give up his weapon for his power and life

2018-02-03 06:36:00 UTC

They should support it is a way of a country defending itself.

Does beijing have any deterrace system equivalent to thaad that can protext itself or rok?

2018-02-03 06:36:04 UTC

Humanitarian diaster

2018-02-03 06:36:06 UTC

Yes

2018-02-03 06:36:06 UTC

Diplomacy.ne

2018-02-03 06:36:16 UTC

2018-02-03 06:36:26 UTC

Not really, but they will affect the lives of the ordinary people negatively.

China will have to handle with NK refugee influx.

2018-02-03 06:36:38 UTC

Nope sanctions will make them more stupid.

2018-02-03 06:37:01 UTC

Very likely. Probably not right after, but it will evenutally re-escalate unless nk's basic stance changes

Likely if DPRK negotiators continue to refuse discussing the nuclear program

2018-02-03 06:37:05 UTC

very likely

2018-02-03 06:37:13 UTC

whenever kju changes his mind

No!!!!!

2018-02-03 06:37:31 UTC

Kim is preparing his weapon during olympic season. He deludes USA and ROK everytime. There is no sincere peace before his death.

2018-02-03 06:37:32 UTC

I think it’s possible, and I would be a vey nervous referee with that kind of world diplomacy resting on my shoulders.

Big impact. It will likely cause chaos and instability. Neighbour countries are surely aware of a possible refugee crisis as well as possiblechanging power dynamics in east asia.

2018-02-03 06:37:43 UTC

Carrot and sticks

2018-02-03 06:37:45 UTC

We should find incentives for China to cooperate

2018-02-03 06:37:46 UTC

China may be concerned about losing its buffer zone (NK).

2018-02-03 06:37:57 UTC

ROK will have to quickly adapt its policy to the new situation on the peninsula and make the first step to initiating a peaceful dialogue.

Communication and economic support

2018-02-03 06:38:05 UTC

2018-02-03 06:38:16 UTC

Probable

High possibility. It seems DPRk is taking advantage of Olympic. Y

2018-02-03 06:38:21 UTC

2018-02-03 06:38:40 UTC

I don't think NK has anything to say to USA given that both countries "nations" undermine each other

2018-02-03 06:38:40 UTC

Diplomacy as we cant leave US.

Never. It undermines the NPT, threatens the US military role in Asia and alliances, and would likely lead to a spiraling

2018-02-03 06:39:16 UTC

kju is utilizing the olympics for his own interests. the talks are short term. cooperation could be likely but it will be disturbed

2018-02-03 06:39:19 UTC

2018-02-03 06:39:26 UTC

Yes maybe in a long term, but it would be at the price sacof people in

The situation might not improve.

2018-02-03 06:39:30 UTC

No

2018-02-03 06:39:41 UTC

North Korea’s recent decision to pull out of a recent cultural event shows they are not committed to cooperati

Yes.

2018-02-03 06:39:56 UTC

Just watched the news in the morning that president Moon called Trump to invite Olympic.

No. Can’t trust kju

2018-02-03 06:40:36 UTC

2018-02-03 06:40:43 UTC

Partly. their economic sanction is closely related to develoment of missile/nuclear programm.

2018-02-03 06:40:48 UTC

Kju wants to be side of us without rok

Very likely - and they may even have used the time to improve their technical issues with final re-entry

2018-02-03 06:41:35 UTC

Is it necessary?

2018-02-03 06:42:12 UTC

No for US, too much of a threat to the us.
Maybe for Korea. Korea might secretly want dprk to be recognized (even as de facto) so that rok may have a chance of taking it over after unification. But they would not make it as an official argument because of allies including the us

Likely

2018-02-03 06:42:57 UTC

Especially considering the personalities of NK and US leaders

2018-02-03 06:43:30 UTC

Hopefully, they will.

2018-02-03 06:43:32 UTC

America should lead by example with nuclear disarmament before forcing other countries to do the same

2018-02-03 06:43:35 UTC

2018-02-03 06:44:33 UTC

It depends on the after-Olympic reaction.

2018-02-03 06:45:34 UTC

It depends on the after-Olympics actions of KJU.

2018-02-03 06:49:19 UTC

If further sanctions are imposed on NK then higher tensions and more demonstrations will take place