Midterm Election Analysis by Emily Goll-Broyles https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9 California 39th District and Texas Senate Race en-us 2018-10-17 15:25:23 UTC 2025-12-07 17:03:02 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Templeball.png California 39th-- The Who gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299600624 Gil Cisneros-- A Democrat
Cisneros is an advocate for veterans and education reform. He is a first time candidate, who says he "is not a career politician" but has experience with politics because of his military service. He presents himself as an independent and refuses PAC funding. He started a charitable organization with his wife when he won the Mega Millions Lottery. He has been endorsed by a range of organizations and officials including Moms Demand Action (an organization fighting gun violence), various industrial workers' unions, Asian American democratic clubs, the Latino Victory Fund, Sen. Kamala Harris, and President Barack Obama.
Young Kim-- A Republican
Kim is a former state legislator (California State Assembly, District 65, 2014-2016) and small business owner. She is endorsed by Ed Royce, the current representative for this district, as well as various women's rights organizations, the county sheriff, and the mayors of most cities in her district. She claims to have been part of a bipartisan effort to pass legislation helping domestic violence survivors and homeless veterans, and is vocal about her belief that higher taxes do nothing but line the pockets of Washington politicians.
]]> 2018-11-01 21:23:20 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299600624 California 39th-- The District gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299601661 Suburbs of LA including parts of Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County.
Demographics
  • Gender: 50.3% F, 49.7% M
  • Race: 55.1% White, 28.3% Asian, 2.4% Black
  • Ethnicity: 34.6% Hispanic
  • Unemployment: 9.6%
  • Median Household Income: $76,748
  • HS Graduation Rate: 87.5%
  • College Graduation Date: 39.4%
]]> 2018-11-01 21:27:21 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299601661 Texas Senate-- The Who gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610243 Ted Cruz (The Incumbent)-- A Republican
Ted Cruz clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist and worked for the associate deputy attorney general for the US Department of Justice, the director of the Office of Policy Planning, and the solicitor general of Texas. He has served in the Senate since 2012. His campaign slogan is "Tough as Texas" and he strictly opposes gun ownership regulation and has championed the introduction of Kate’s Law, and the “authorship of NASA Transition Authorization Act to secure Texas jobs”. He takes a hard line on immigration and is very protective of religious freedoms.

Beto O'Rourke-- A Democrat
Beto has represented Texas since 2013 in the U.S. House as the Representative for Texas' 16th Congressional District. He previously served on the El Paso City Council (2005-2011) and co-founded Stanton Street Technology. He has a commitment to bipartisanship while promoting a progressive policy platform on abortion, gun violence, and healthcare, claims to have consistently hosted monthly town halls with his constituents. He worked on the House Committees for Armed Services and Veterans Affairs, which included “proposing and shepherding a pilot program for a VA Wellness Center in El Paso, Texas”.
]]> 2018-11-01 22:12:53 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610243 Texas Senate-- The State gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610376 Demographics
  • Gender: 50.3% F, 49.7% M
  • Race: 42.0% white, 39.4% Hispanic or Latino, 12.7 Black, 5.0 Asian
  • HS Degree: 82.3%
  • College degree: 28.1%
  • Average household  Income: $54, 727

]]> 2018-11-01 22:13:35 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610376 Works Cited gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610519 Works Cited
Abramowitz, Alan I. “Will Democrats Catch a Wave? The Generic Ballot Model and the 2018 US House Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 51, no. S1, 2018, pp. 4–6., doi:10.1017/S1049096518001567.
“California District 39 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=CA39.
“California 39th District - Kim vs. Cisneros.” RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ca/california_39th_district_kim_vs_cisneros-6447.html.
“California's 39th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District.
“California's 39th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, 2018, ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.
“California's 39th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.
Campbell, James E. “The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 51, no. S1, 2018, pp. 12–16., doi:10.1017/S1049096518001580.
The Editorial Board. “For U.S. Senate: Beto O'Rourke.” HoustonChronicle.com, Houston Chronicle, 20 Oct. 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Senate-Beto-ORourke-Ted-Cruz-2018-endorsement-13320986.php.
“Education.” Democrats, Democrats, democrats.org/issues/education/.
Kampf, David, et al. “Ted Cruz's Major Endorsements.” POLITICO, 29 Mar. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ted-cruz-endorsements-220198.
Mai-Duc, Christine. “Will California Flip the House? The Key Races to Watch.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 31 Oct. 2018, www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-competitive-house-districts-20180906-htmlstory.html.
Mai-Duc, Christine. “Will California Flip the House? The Key Races to Watch.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 31 Oct. 2018, www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-competitive-house-districts-20180906-htmlstory.html.
“Meet Gil.” Cisneros for Congress, Cisneros for Congress, cisnerosforcongress.com/meet-gil/.
“Midterm Election Poll: Texas Senate, Cruz vs. O'Rourke.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 8 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html.
Morin, Rebecca. “Cruz Hammers Brennan for Endorsing Beto O'Rourke.” POLITICO, 2 Nov. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/11/02/cruz-brennan-endorses-orourke-956855.
Moritz, John C. “Where Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Stand on the Issues in Texas' US Senate Race.” Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Corpus Christi Caller Times, 29 Oct. 2018, www.caller.com/story/news/local/texas/state-bureau/2018/09/10/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-texas-senate-race-health-care-education-and-impeachment/1221571002/.
Nutting, Rex. “Face It: Ted Cruz Is as Far from the Republican Mainstream as Donald Trump Is.” MarketWatch, 7 Apr. 2016, www.marketwatch.com/story/why-ted-cruz-is-not-a-reasonable-alternative-to-donald-trump-2016-04-06.
“Polling the 2018 Midterm Elections in Real Time.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 6 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html.
“Polls.” RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html.
“Rep. Beto O'Rourke - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, 4 Nov. 2018, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540.
“Rep. Beto O'Rourke - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540.
“Republican Party on Education .” OnTheIssues, www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Republican_Party_Education.htm.
“Sen. Ted Cruz - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, 4 Nov. 2018, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033085.
Shultz, Alex. “Beto O'Rourke Earns the Endorsements of Texas' Two Largest Newspapers.” GQ, GQ, 25 Oct. 2018, www.gq.com/story/beto-orourke-earns-dallas-morning-news-houston-chronicle-endorsements-over-ted-cruz.
“Splash Page.” Ted Cruz for Senate, www.tedcruz.org/.
Staff, POLITICO. “Who Wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 5 Sept. 2018, www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/.
Svitek, Patrick. “Ted Cruz Releases First TV Ads of 2018, Including 3 Attacking Beto O'Rourke.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 3 Aug. 2018, www.texastribune.org/2018/08/03/cruz-orourke-attack-ad-reelection-texas/.
“Texas Voting.” Texas Secretary Of State, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/pamphlets/largepamp.shtml.
“Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-Current).” Texas Secretary of State, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml.
“United States Senate Election in Texas, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018.
Weissert, Will. “Both Sides Ignoring Swing Voters in Hot Texas Senate Race.” Houston Chronicle, 22 Oct. 2018, www.chron.com/news/article/Both-sides-ignoring-swing-voters-in-hot-Texas-13326611.php.




]]> 2018-11-01 22:14:18 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299610519 California 39th gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299812966 Its an open seat. Ed Royce, the incumbent, is retiring. He has had control of the seat since 2010, when the district was redrawn after the census. California has blanket primaries which means that Cisneros and Kim were the top two of their primary]]> 2018-11-02 14:43:18 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299812966 Texas Senate gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299814444 Both Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke won the primaries by a large margin. There were fewer candidates in the Democratic primary and fewer voted in the democratic primary overall, meaning Beto received fewer votes than Cruz. 

]]> 2018-11-02 14:45:58 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299814444 Presidential Election 2016 carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299840127 California 39th
The district was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 when Ed Royce was the district representative. It was a red district at the time. Clinton won 66 out of 80 districts in California of which 11 were Republican seats including the 39th district. Although the majority of the race is white, there has been an increase of asian and hispanic voters in the district. ]]> 2018-11-02 15:26:04 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/299840127 Campaign Money carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300267060 Who's spending the most money?
Gil Cisneros has raised  $11,126,339 and has spent  $10,494,157. He has gotten from PACS about $62,900. However, he has refused most PACS and argues that the government should not be beholden to special interests. He has invested 2 million on his campaign.
Young Kim has raised $2,534,540 and has spent $2,158,357. She has gotten from PACS about $469,525. Most of the money has come from PACS and not individual or group supporters. ]]> 2018-11-04 23:24:04 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300267060 Gil Cisneros gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300304737 2018-11-05 03:49:29 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300304737 Young Kim gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300305226 2018-11-05 03:52:26 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300305226 Our Prediction for California 39 District gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300305554  We predict that Gil Cisneros will win the 2018 California 39th district house race. One reason is because of public opinion polls. In two of the three polls we found, Cisneros was slightly ahead of his opponent Young Kim. Another reason is that this district voted for the Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. Cisneros is also a Democrat, so constituents would be likely to vote for him. Some could argue that Kim is more likely to win because she has political experience, and has worked for and been endorsed by Ed Royce, the incumbent of this House seat. However, they are both Republicans, which could work against her. Historically, the President’s party has lost House seats in the midterm elections, and the current president is republican, so it is very possible that this seat will be taken over by Gil Cisneros, the democratic candidate. ]]> 2018-11-05 03:54:22 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300305554 District Issues in California 39 carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300306600 Young's keynote issues are to create jobs and keep low taxes. She wants to find bipartisan solutions to immigration issues.
Cisneros' main issues are to combat homelessness among veterans and support for universal healthcare. He also supports gun control reform.]]> 2018-11-05 04:02:53 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300306600 Texas State Demographic carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300318344 2018-11-05 05:28:54 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300318344 Voter Registration carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300319002 In the 2016 Presidential Election 
  • Turnout was 8,969,226 out of 15,101,087 registered.
Registration Laws
  • Permits early voting
  • Does not allow online voter registration and no-excuse absentee voting 
  • Must be a US citizen, resident of the county where registration is made, 18 yrs old, not finally convicted of a felon, or  if so, have  been fully discharged or pardoned, and not deemed totally mentally incapacitated or partially mentally incapacitated without the right to vote
]]> 2018-11-05 05:35:40 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300319002 Our Prediction for Texas Senate carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300325933 We predict that Senator Ted Cruz will win the 2018 Senate Race. One reason that we believe this is because Cruz is the incumbent. Historically, incumbent members of the legislature have an advantage over those who are not, so it stands to reason that being the incumbent would help Cruz in this election, therefore supporting our prediction. Additionally, public opinion polls could be used to support our prediction. In every poll we looked at, Cruz had a higher percent of the vote than O’Rourke. That indicates that Cruz will be the winner of this election. Some could argue that polls do not accurately report what the actual results of the election will be as voter turnout can be unpredictable especially with many young voters who have not been polled in previous elections favoring Beto. While that is true, the fact that Cruz has consistently been ahead in polls combined with the fact that Texas is traditionally a red state, and Cruz is a Republican, points to Ted Cruz keeping his Senate seat for another term. 

]]> 2018-11-05 06:32:53 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300325933 Issues of Each Candidate: TX Senate carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300326558 U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement
  • Beto - abolish ICE
  • Cruz - against Beto’s suggestion
  • Cruz fits his party platform, but Beto's suggestion is more radical than what would full under the average democratic platform,
The Economy
  • Beto - promotes regulations on business and industry to  protect customers, promote competition and grow economy, supports antitrust regulations to break up  monopolies
  • Cruz - supports 2017 tax cut package championed by President Trump, and wants to reform social security: not alter benefits for that who already   checks, but raise the retirement age for younger workers
  • Both fall in line with their party platforms. 
Education
  • Beto - increase federal aid to public schools and reduce the emphasis on “high-stakes tests”
  • Cruz - abolish U.S Department of Education, advocates school vouchers that let parents trap money they pay in school taxes for private school expenses
  • Both fall in line with their party plastform. 

]]> 2018-11-05 06:38:58 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300326558 Presidential Election 2016 carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300327251 Winner: Donald Trump 
Texas is a Red State and still is since the 2016 election. Senator Ted Cruz and John Cornyn both are Republicans and the majority of District representatives are Republican (25/36).  ]]> 2018-11-05 06:45:16 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300327251 Cruz vs. Beto Money Spending carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300332269 Cruz Raised: $40,118,702 Spent: $33,896,025
Most money he has gained are from individual/ group support, $28,842,608. From PACS he has gained more than Beto, $14,000,667.
Beto Raised: $70,098,608 Spent: $59,162,350
He has gained more many than Cruz from individual/ group supporters, $70,021,167. From PACS he has gained, $77,441.
This information was released as of Nov. 4, 2018.


]]> 2018-11-05 07:19:35 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300332269 Campaign Ads-- Gil Cisneros gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300452049 2018-11-05 13:45:45 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300452049 Campaign Ads-- Young Kim gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300453888 2018-11-05 13:49:00 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300453888 Polls of the Texas Senate Race carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300459029 Sources of public polls
Emerson
  • Cruz = 50, Beto = 47
  • Sample Size: 781 LV
  • MoE: 3.7
New York Times
  • Cruz = 51, Beto = 43
  • Sample Size: 800 LV
  • MoE: 3.6
CBS 11
  • Cruz = 52, Beto = 42
  • Sample Size: 588 LV
  • MoE: 4.0 
]]> 2018-11-05 13:57:01 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300459029 Campaign Ads-Cruz gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300460669 "Stand"

]]> 2018-11-05 13:59:37 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300460669 Campaign Ads-Beto gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300464231 "Showing Up"

]]> 2018-11-05 14:04:33 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300464231 Polls of the California 39 District Race carolyn_dzul https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300464639 Sources of public polls
NY Times/Siena 
  • Cisneros= 47, Young = 46
  • Sample Size: 496 LV
  • MoE: 4.9
Berkeley IGS
  • Cisneros= 49, Young= 48
  • Sample Size: 552 LV
  • MoE: 6.0
Monmouth
  • Cisneros= 41, Young= 51
  • Sample Size: 300 LV
  • MoE 5.7
]]> 2018-11-05 14:05:13 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300464639 Jokes because this empty space is making me crazy... gollbroylesemi01 https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300466431 What do you call a flower that will probably win the California 39th? A cisneROSE
Those Young people, they only want to vote for Kim possible...


]]> 2018-11-05 14:07:59 UTC https://padlet.com/gollbroylesemi01/h1kx6pcfubm9/wish/300466431