Iowa 3rd Prediction by Stewart Schultze https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq Made by Sophie, Preeti, and Stewart en-us 2018-10-27 19:01:00 UTC 2026-02-17 19:30:38 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Growing.png Who are they? Who is the incumbent? The challenger? Is there an open seat? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558335 David Young is a U.S. House (IA) - District 3, Republican.  He is running for his third term in Iowa district 3 this year which in turn makes him the incumbent tin this election . 
Cindy Axne is the challenger in this election and it is her first time running in an election.

]]> 2018-11-01 19:25:29 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558335 Relevant background information on their primary race (Spoiler: They won it). preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558475 This is Cindy Axne 's first election that she is running from.
David Young ran for his first term in the year of 2014 ."On June 21, 2014, in what was described by the Des Moines Register as a "stunning upset", Young won the nomination on the fifth ballot of the convention.[6] Young went on to defeat Democrat Staci Appel 53% to 42% in the 2014 general election."

]]> 2018-11-01 19:25:51 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558475 Information on the candidates? (career politician? First time running? Business background? Family? Age? Etc …) preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558788 David Young: Running for third term of being State representative, before running for state representative he was a chief of staff for Senator Chuck Grassley, 6th generation Iowan, 50 years old
Cindy Axne: Small Business owner, 5th generation Iowan, Has two children, 53 years old, considered to be a "newbee" in politics ]]> 2018-11-01 19:26:41 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558788 How do the candidates stated positions fit their party platform? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558907
- Cindy Axne believes in things like pro-choice and gun-control legislations which automatically align her with the democratic platform .
- David Young believes in things like pro-life legislation and also in building a wall along the Mexican border which categorizes his beliefs with the republican platform .]]> 2018-11-01 19:26:59 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558907 Where would you place this person on the flat-line spectrum? The compass? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558955 - Cindy Axne would be found on the bottom - left of the political spectrum .
- David Young can be found to the right of the political spectrum which in turn classifies him as a republican .

]]> 2018-11-01 19:27:09 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299558955 Do the candidates have any controversies? Scandals? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559047
- Trump approval, health care dominate 3rd District race between Republican David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne

-Cindy Axne held stock for a company that illegally polluted the enviorment

-Ms. Axne tends to avoid talking about Mr. Trump,” a recent New York Times article said. “She has tried to keep her focus on expanding access to affordable health care and covering pre-existing conditions, positions that are not as easy for her opponent to attack as radical and socialist.”

-Iowa’s reliance on global trade makes tariffs an important issue here, an issue that the incumbent could be vulnerable on.


]]> 2018-11-01 19:27:20 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559047 Demographic makeup of state/district? - Age, race, religion, gender, religion, income, etc…) preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559128 Majority is Female
13% poverty rate
 73.07% urban
 91.6% White
The main faith is Christianity with protestants 
Median income | 43,176]]> 2018-11-01 19:27:32 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559128 Voter turnout in last election for the state/district? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559188 2018-11-01 19:27:42 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559188 Voter registration laws in that state (registration requirements, voter ID laws, voting by mail, early voting, etc.)? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559245 Polling places are open from 7 am - 9pm 
Same day registration is available
Voter ID is not required to vote (unless you are doing a same day registration then you need proof of ID and residence) 
If you miss the day of the election you can submit an absentee ballot, but you can't submit one until it is 29 day before the election

]]> 2018-11-01 19:27:50 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559245 Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls (as recent as possible) and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559993
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia03-1.html

Their  poll results are  about what was expected. Remembering that  it's one poll  talking  about only  502 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.(from the source above. They sound credible because they have a newspaper that the whole country reads , it automatically guarantees you with credibility .

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

This poll is showing votes from the poll called Emerson where Axne and Young are almost caught up with each other in their race as  election day is approaching .They also sound credible because their results match with  our previous source's results .

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/iowa/3/

The latest polls show votes from the Emerson college poll where Axne is leading by only 1% .This can also be classified as a credible source because our most credible source also shares the same statistics .]]> 2018-11-01 19:30:04 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299559993 Find and display/link least 1 campaign ad from each candidate. How effective to you rate the ad? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560051 This ad is a 4 out of 5 because it strongly appeals to ones emotional state ]]> 2018-11-01 19:30:14 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560051 sophiab22607 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560299 “Iowa's 3rd Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2018.]]> 2018-11-01 19:30:55 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560299 sophiab22607 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560420 “Cindy Axne for U.S. Congress.” Cindy Axne for Congress, cindyaxneforcongress.com/.]]> 2018-11-01 19:31:10 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560420 sophiab22607 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560488 “Congressman David Young.” Congressman David Young, davidyoung.house.gov/.

]]> 2018-11-01 19:31:23 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560488 Which interest groups are spending money on this race? Any from outside of the state? (Hint: The answer to this question is YES) preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560574 Congressional Leadership Fund (super PAC) $408,000 during the last week. The money was used in part on a television ad against Axne.

House Majority PAC (super PAC) That spending group has reserved about $800,000 in television ad time to tear down Young.

The national Democrat and Republican Congressional Campaign Committee have also taken interest, but neither have placed huge sums of money into ads.


]]> 2018-11-01 19:31:37 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560574 How much money has each candidate raised? If there is a significant difference, what do you think accounts for it? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560659 Cindy Axne: Raised 
$4,329,314 and spent $3,425,019
David young: Raised $2,526,493 and spent  $1,863,354

We believe that Cindy has raised more money than David because she is a small business owner and so is her husband. ]]> 2018-11-01 19:31:49 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560659 Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560784 The Majority of Iowa (including the 3rd district) voted for Trump ]]> 2018-11-01 19:32:11 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560784 Who has endorsed your candidates? Why does this matter? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560985 Several groups have endorsed Cindy Axne. A couple of the main groups are American Federation of Government Employees and AFSCME as well as more. This matters because who the candidate is connected with can influence the vote because of the connections likability. 
David Young was endorsed mostly by  Planned Parenthood Action Fund-Positions(Lifetime), Campaign for Working Families-Positions,  National Right to Life Committee - Positions, and  NARAL Pro-Choice America-"Congressional Record on Choice". The effects are similar for both David Young and Cindy Axne in regards to who endorse them. ]]> 2018-11-01 19:32:40 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299560985 List 3 major issues the candidates are debating.What are their positions?Are these positions in line with their party platform? preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561062 Abortion:
(Young) Pro-life, falls in line with party
(Axne) Pro-Choice, falls in line with party

Gun Control:
(Young) Wants there to be gun owners, but advocated for regulations to be put into place, falls in line with more liberal side of republicans
(Cindy) Federal Law and should be heavily regulated, Falls into the more extreme democrats section

Health Care:
(Young) Pushes for change in health care system like for example wants there to be health care for those with pre-existing problems, falls in line for more liberal side of the republican party 
(Cindy) Health care should be affordable for everyone, falls in line with party ]]> 2018-11-01 19:32:54 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561062 Are there any third party candidates on the ballot? Could they play “spoiler?” preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561142 There are 4 third party candidates on the ballot. 
Green: Paul Knupp (could be spoiler for Cindy) 
Libertarian: Bryan Holder (spoiler for republicans and democrats)
Legal Medical Now: Mark Elworth Jr. 
Independent: Joe Grandanette ]]> 2018-11-01 19:33:07 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561142 Thesis/Claim - take a side and predict the election outcome preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561243 We believe that Cindy Axne is going to win this election because she has a bigger budget to spend and the demographics swing in her favor. ]]> 2018-11-01 19:33:27 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561243 Two pieces of evidence that backup your thesis/claim - describe two of your strongest pieces of evidence; (reasoning) explain why they support your prediction preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561303 Cindy Axne has almost double the money to spend on campaigning to help boost her exposure to people and the demographics are in her favor (white, female, lower income) meaning they (based off of the demographics) are likely to vote for her democratically.]]> 2018-11-01 19:33:38 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561303 Offer an alternate perspective - highlight a weakness in your evidence or another piece of evidence that points in the other direction (why the other candidate would win) preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561405 David Young is going to win. He is the incumbent and been elected for two terms which in turn has raised his exposure to Iowans and it may seem lower than Cindy Axne's budget, but 2.5 million is still 2.5 million. 

Demographics are a loosely used predicter that works only some of the time meaning you can't base who is going to win off of demographics alone which gives David Young still a fighting chance. 

]]> 2018-11-01 19:33:52 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561405 Counter the alternative perspective. preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561467 David Young has a chance of winning, but is likely not going to win because the demographics and her budget swing in her favor increasing her probability of winning. ]]> 2018-11-01 19:34:02 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299561467 stewarts22487 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299568440 Petroski, William. “Cindy Axne's Personal Investments Become a Public Campaign Issue in Battle against David Young.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 11 Sept. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/11/heated-words-between-cindy-axne-and-david-young-campaigns-congress-over-environment-related-issues/1001346002/.

]]> 2018-11-01 19:52:22 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/299568440 preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300178622 “The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/155218/david-young/#.W974xRNKg_U.]]> 2018-11-04 13:49:29 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300178622 preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300181627 “David Young (Iowa Politician).” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 4 Nov. 2018, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Young_(Iowa_politician).]]> 2018-11-04 14:13:33 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300181627 stewarts22487 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300193909  Cnn.com. (2018). Full 2016 election results: Iowa House 03. [online] Available at: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/iowa/house/03 [Accessed 5 Nov. 2018]. ]]> 2018-11-04 15:35:19 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300193909 Cindy Axne Ad stewarts22487 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300232478 This ad is a 4 out of 5 because it gave background info on what she can do and had uplifting music in the background]]> 2018-11-04 19:29:13 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300232478 sophiab22607 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300249840 Rodriguez, Barbara. “Trump Approval, Health Care Dominate 3rd District Race between Republican David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 23 Oct. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/22/iowa-3rd-district-race-david-young-cindy-axne-donald-trump-health-care-democrat-republican-voters/1676666002/.]]> 2018-11-04 21:17:57 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300249840 preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300308090 “Midterm Election Poll: Iowa's 3rd District, Young vs. Axne.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 27 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia03-1.html.]]> 2018-11-05 04:15:01 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300308090 preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300316152 “RealClearPolitics - 2018 House Election Polls.” RealClearPolitics - 2018 House Election, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/.]]> 2018-11-05 05:11:05 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300316152 preetip22820 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300316217 DataDhrumil. “Iowa 3rd District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 5 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/iowa/3/.]]> 2018-11-05 05:11:31 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300316217 Period 4 stewarts22487 https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300618300 2018-11-05 17:47:33 UTC https://padlet.com/stewarts22487/g04yz5okgsq/wish/300618300