Midterm Election Analysis - James, Declan, Ethan by Declan Donnelly https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq en-us 2018-10-17 15:23:23 UTC 2026-02-18 20:36:36 UTC hello@padlet.com Incumbent jamesmdai https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299234170 Dean Heller (R) is the Senior Senator of Nevada and was appointed to his position in 2011 by Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval after the former Senator John Ensign resigned amid extramarital affairs. He campaigned for a full-term in 2012 and won by a slim margin of 1.2%. In the past, he served on the House of Representatives for Nevada's 2nd District from 2007-2011. He ideologically is a moderate Republican, which is why many conservative Republicans began supporting Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian before the primary. President Trump convinced the businessman to drop his challenge and endorsed, along with Vice President Pence, Dean Heller. Ultimately, he won the primaries by significant margins, nearly 70%, with little competition from runner-up Tom Heck, who received 18%. ]]> 2018-11-01 03:13:27 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299234170 Challenger jamesmdai https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299234193 Jacky Rosen (D) is the U.S. Representative for Nevada's 3rd congressional district, a district won by President Trump in the 2016 Presidential election. Representative Rosen actually began her career as a computer programmer but was asked in 2016 to run for public for the first time. She narrowly beat Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian in the general election. Wrapping up her first term in Congress, she decided to run for Senate office and was endorsed by former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden. She is by nature a progressive buts maintains a practical attitude towards policy-making. She won the Democratic nomination by significant margins - 77% - with no other candidate anywhere near. ]]> 2018-11-01 03:13:36 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299234193 Information on Nevada decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299646413 Nevada is 51.3% white,  the majority of the state votes republican, but major city of Las Vegas is generally democratic. Nevada is comparatively lacked on their voting laws. Nevada only requires you to be a U.S. Citizen, a Nevada resident for 30 days prior to registering, and 18 years of age. Nevada also allows voters to vote via in mail or in person, and doesn't require any form of identification when voters arrive to the ballot. In Nevada during the 2016 election there was a significant amount of voters, about 76% of registered voters came out, with 40% being democratic and 36% being republican.]]> 2018-11-02 01:43:51 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/299646413 Politics of Nevada Senate Race decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300131598 During the 2016 election, Nevada went to Hillary Clinton. On the New York Times, the live poll is has Heller with a 47% to 45% lead over Rosen with 7% still undecided. The margin for error on the poll was 4, and the size was 642 people, all randomly called. Another poll by Emerson of 625 people had Heller with a  7% lead on Rosen. The margin of error was 4.2%. The final poll was done by CNN of 622 people gave Rosen a 3% lead on Heller, the margin for error was 4.8% however. Both candidates have received support by major political figures for their respective parties. Heller has been endorsed by President Trump and Vice President Pence, while Rosen has been endorsed by former President Obama and Vice President Biden. These endorsements good be the benefit to Rosen as President Trump has a much lower approval rating than President Obama. As far as interest group support, the candidates have received a combined 16.9 million dollars from super PACS. $10.8 million has gone to Rosen from the out of state Senate Majority PAC. Some key issues in Nevada are its lack of diversity in its economy, Rosen as well as other democrats are in favor of trying to add more markets for Nevada's expanding renewable energy sources. Republicans including Heller see this as the "Califroniacation " of Nevada. Gun control reform is another issue in Nevada. Rosen is in favor of expanding background checks and wants it to be placed on private sellers. Heller disagrees and believes it is a violation of the second amendment. Rosen also wants to preserve BLM lands and sees them as sources of tourism and profit for the state, Heller disagrees and wants to allow developmental agencies to start building on them. Their positions are all in line with their parties.]]> 2018-11-04 02:48:34 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300131598 Incumbent decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300131736 John Culberson (R) has served as the 7th District's representative since 2001. He was preceded by Bill Archer. Culberson attended Southern Methodist University before graduating and attending the South Texas School of Law. He served as the Minority Whip in the Texas House of Representatives while in law school. He defeated Edward Ziegler in the Republican primary with 76% of the vote. Hillary Clinton carried the 7th District in 2016, leading Democrats to see the District as ripe for the taking. Culberson describes himself as a "fiscally responsible" Republican. He is pro-life, and ironically enough, was the first representative to throw support behind Ted Cruz during the 2016 Republican Primary.]]> 2018-11-04 02:50:48 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300131736 Challenger decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300132184 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) graduated from Kenyon College in 1997. While she has no political history, she claims to be well-rooted in Houston politics. She has criticized Culberson for his voting in terms of his effect on Houston, she has stated that he has voted against numerous bills that would better Houston's infrastructure. Fletcher also emphasizes her commitment to Houston, stating that she would put Houstonians first.]]> 2018-11-04 02:58:07 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300132184 Prediction decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300132660  We believe that Rosen will most likely win the Nevada Senate race. Our first piece of evidence is that Rosen has received more money for her campaign, this supports our argument because, the candidate that generally receives more campaign money the candidate to win the election. Another piece of evidence to support our argument is that Rosen has received endorsements from more favorable/popular figures, Heller has been endorsed by President Trump who currently has a 40% approval rating. This could lead people to trying to steer away from the Trump supported candidate. One flaw in our argument is that Heller is the Incumbent which gives him am advantage, as well as him leading in most popular polls. This can be countered however by the fact that the polls all had margin of errors that could've given Rosen the lead, making the polls unreliable.

]]> 2018-11-04 03:07:18 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300132660 Information on Texas 7th decdonnelly104 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300133320 Texas 7th District's racial distribution is as follows: 
44.95% White, 12.81% Black, 10.17% Asian, 31.91% Hispanic, 0.16% Native American. In the 2016 House election, Culberson won by 13 points, with 264,267 voters turning out. Texas voters need some form of identification when they register, such as a drivers license or social security card. Texas voters must be at least 17 years and 10 months on the date of registration. Texans can also engage in early voting.]]> 2018-11-04 03:23:35 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300133320 ethangib27 https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300283546
Press, SCOTT SONNER Associated. “Nevada's 40 Percent Early Voting Turnout Dwarfs 2014 Midterm.” Thestate, The State, 3 Nov. 2018, www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article221080080.html.

DeHaven, James. “As Heller, Rosen Point Fingers over Super PACs, Dark Money Pours into Nevada Senate Race.” Reno Gazette Journal, Reno Gazette Journal, 20 Sept. 2018, www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/19/dean-heller-jacky-rosen-dark-money-nevada-senate-election-super-pac/1346358002/.

Press, The Associated. “Nevada Senate Race: Rosen Fundraising Still Outpaces Heller.” KRNV, 26 Oct. 2018, mynews4.com/news/local/nevada-senate-race-rosen-fundraising-still-outpaces-heller.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism

“Midterm Election Poll: Nevada Senate, Heller vs. Rosen.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 8 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html. 

 Agiesta, Jennifer. “CNN Polls: Tight Senate Contests in Arizona, Nevada in Final Week.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Oct. 2018, www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-arizona-nevada-senate-races/index.html. 
lttps://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567

“Two Emerson e-Polls: Republicans with Edge in US Senate and Governor Races in Nevada; New Hampshire Races Come into Focus.” Emerson College, 15 Oct. 2018, www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus#.W9_Z6XpKg0r

“Dean Heller for US Senate.” Dean Heller for US Senate, www.deanheller.com/.

“Jacky Rosen for Senate.” Jacky Rosen for Senate, www.rosenfornevada.com/.

GOP, Nevada. “Nevada GOP.” Nevada Republican Party, 4 Nov. 2018, nevadagop.org/.

“Nevada State Democratic Party.” NVDems, nvdems.com/.

“Nevada Secretary of State.” Nevada Secretary of State : Home, www.nvsos.gov/sos.
]]> 2018-11-05 01:22:12 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300283546 Politics of Texas 7th Race jamesmdai https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300306539 During the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton won the district by a slim margin - 1.6%. Currently, two polls run by NY Times/Sienna done in October and September have Culberson leading by 1 and 3 points respectively. The poll conducted in October had a sample size of 499 with a MOE of 4.6 while the September poll had a sample size of 500 with a MOE of 5 points. Both of these polls are credible as they come from nonpartisan organizations. In addition, the Democrat-leaning organization Public Policy Polling ran a poll in September with Fletcher leading by 2 points with 562 registered voters and a MOE of 4.1%. We should take this information cautiously as it might have some bias. The Congressional Leadership Fund has been spending money against Lizzie Fletcher. The Women's Vote! interest group is spending money against Culberson. Important endorsements for Fletcher include Emily's Choice, the Houston Chronicle, and Houston GLBT Political Caucus. These are respectable organizations pushing pro-choice, influencing public opinion, and pushing LGBTQ+ rights, respectively. Culberson has been endorsed by the NRA and Business-Industry Political Action Committee. The endorsements both candidates receive helps push the electorate towards them. Three issues very much under debate are health care, flood prevention, and gun control. On both flood prevention and gun control, both candidates actually share many similarities. Of course, they want to ensure that future hurricanes will never damage Houston like Harvey did. However, interestingly, Culberson has went across party lines and encouraged the idea of background checks, which many Republican vehemently oppose. However, on health care, both candidates differ on the ACA pioneered by Obama. Culberson believes the ACA is no longer affordable while Fletcher believes that health care is a human right and is opposed to breaking apart the progress the ACA made. ]]> 2018-11-05 04:02:27 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300306539 Prediction jamesmdai https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300314522 We believe that Lizzie Fletcher will win the seat for Texas 7th serving in the House of Representatives. We hypothesize this outcome because Lizzie Fletcher has received more money to her campaign. In addition, the women in the electorate, which is a larger proportion of the electorate due to higher women turnout, are more likely to vote for a woman that defends women's rights like healthcare and abortion laws. While Culberson certainly has an incumbency advantage, we believe his inability to adapt to a fired up electorate due to Trumpism will be reflected on Election Night. We expect that his disconnection from conservatives are half-hearted connection to progressives will make him lose voters on both sides.]]> 2018-11-05 05:01:44 UTC https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300314522 jamesmdai https://padlet.com/decdonnelly104/fbmortq3ikdq/wish/300322159
Livingston, Abby. “With U.S. House GOP Majority in the Balance, Culberson and Fletcher Battle in West Houston.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 2 Nov. 2018, www.texastribune.org/2018/11/02/john-culberson-lizzie-fletcher-west-houston-congressional-seat/.

Scherer, Jasper. “Trump Hovers over Culberson, Fletcher on 7th Congressional District Ballot.” HoustonChronicle.com, Houston Chronicle, 4 Nov. 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Trump-hovers-over-Culberson-Fletcher-on-7th-13358006.php.

Diaz, Kevin. “Democrats' Closing Argument against John Culberson: Pre-Existing Conditions.” Houston Chronicle, Houston Chronicle, 30 Oct. 2018, www.chron.com/news/politics/article/Democrats-closing-argument-against-John-13346307.php.

“Midterm Election Poll: Texas' 7th District, Culberson vs. Fletcher.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 14 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-1.html.

“Midterm Election Poll: Texas' 7th District, Culberson vs. Fletcher.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-3.html.

Svitek, Patrick. “Texas 7th.” Twitter, Twitter, 24 Sept. 2018, twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1044307111872778240.

“Culberson for Congress.” Culberson for Congress, www.culbersonforcongress.com/.

“Lizzie Pannill Fletcher for Congress.” Lizzie Pannill Fletcher for Congress, www.lizziefletcher.com/.

“Home.” Republican Party of Texas, www.texasgop.org/.

“Texas Democratic Party.” Texas Democratic Party, www.txdemocrats.org/.

State of Texas - Secretary of State. “Texas Secretary of State World Wide Web Homepage.” Texas Secretary of State, www.sos.state.tx.us/.


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Bafumi, J., Erikson, R., & Wlezien, C. (2018). Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information. PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(S1), 7-11. doi:10.1017/S1049096518001579

Rhodes, J. H., Schaffner, B. F., & La Raja, R. J. (2018). Detecting and Understanding Donor Strategies in Midterm Elections. Political Research Quarterly, 71(3), 503–516. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912917749323

Abramowitz, A. (2018). Will Democrats Catch a Wave? The Generic Ballot Model and the 2018 US House Elections. PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(S1), 4-6. doi:10.1017/S1049096518001567



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