The Rise of China by

THE RISE OF CHINA

19943069 — 2018-05-22 06:41:31 UTC

China's Relationship with the US: The 'Trade Wars'

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:36:25 UTC

The South China Sea

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:41:52 UTC

China's Relationship with North Korea

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:43:11 UTC

'Belt and Road' Initiative

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:44:31 UTC

Internal Political Structure

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:52:29 UTC

Summary of Events:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 02:59:28 UTC

The South China sea is a heavy disputed area of sea, many nations claim parts of the region these include, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines and Malaysia.

There are three primary reasons why the region is incredibly important to the interested parties.

- Firstly, there are large reserves of oil and gas under the Spratly Islands that is sort by the states involved.

- Secondly, the South China Sea is one of the busiest commercial gateways in the worlds merchant shipping.

- Finally, a state would gain a great amount of power if they could exert there influences over the region.

Over the last few months there has been a lot of opposition to the increased influence of China in the region.

Summary of Events:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:00:38 UTC

The US and China have been in conflict to establish what fair trade should be. This involves both countries listing different items that the other country exports that will have tariffs added to them. This has escalated in a competitive manner where both China and the US want to have the advantage in trading internationally.
Conflict between the two countries has built since Donald Trump’s threat of $66 billion on Chinese goods was retaliated with a similar number and the list of goods that this applied to extended, according to the ABC.

‘‘US and China put trade war ‘on hold’, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says’, 2018, ABC, viewed 22^nd May < http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-21/us-and-china-putting-trade-war-on-hold-treasurys-mnuchin-says/9781912 >

Summary of Events:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:04:40 UTC

The 'Belt and Road' initiative by China is a collection of infrastructure projects that have been ongoing since 2013. The project involves China investing in various infrastructure projects of other states. The past few months have seen the near completion of projects in:

Pakistan
Kazakhstan
Maldives
Russia
Nepal
Macedonia
UAE
Saudi Arabia

Looking at one particular project in the UAE, the Khalifa Port Container Terminal, we can see that China has $738 million USD to its construction and expansion. Not only that, but the state-owned Chinese company COSCO have a 35 year lease over most of the terminal land, which commenced earlier this year.

This interactive map shows the infrastructure projects occurring in Asia, and if you click on 'Initiatives' and type in 'Belt and Road' it shows all the projects being undertaken under the initiative across Asia.

Summary of Events:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:05:15 UTC

China’s political rise has been significantly noticeable within the media at the beginning of 2018. A vote was held in March 2018. Carney’s (2018) article looks at the unanimous vote made by the National People’s Congress (NPC) allows Xi Jinping (current president of China) to stay as president without any re-election until he passes away. China’s goal in relation to altering of the presidential terms from being voted on every two years to indefinite has the aim of ensuring stability for Xi Jinping to remain in power. China’s move to initiate lifelong presidential terms, initiates the concept of a dictatorship which Carney links to people such as Stalin. However, this move has ensured and strengthened Xi Jinping ’s ability to stay in power as long as he remains to suppress any major threats from both the west and internally.

Zang's (editor of BBC) short video allows for an insight into the potential for what could happen with Xi Jinping's ability to now be President of China for life. It also looks at how the vote came about.
Howard Zang, 2018, Xi Jinping: What if Xi is President for life?, online video, 22 May, BBC, viewed on 22 March 2018,<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McP4XEsypSo>

Political Implications:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:07:25 UTC

The main goal for China is to create new and more developed trade routes around Asia, Africa, and Europe, expanding their economic power. One of the major implications of China's investments is that developing states often rely on these investments, but then cannot pay back the loan. This has resulted in China taking ownership and control of some of the projects they have helped to create in exchange for the cancellation of the debt.

Take the Khalifa Port Container Terminal, where COSCO have taken ownership of a large part of the port. This essentially gives China a port in the Persian Gulf, opening up more trade in the Middle East and allowing for easier transport of oil. This, combined with the possible control of the Gwadar Port in Pakistan (due to their struggling to pay back loans to China), of which they have also invested in, allows for a direct route of transporting trade and oil.

Not to mention the massive investment by China in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, connected to the Belt and Road Initiative, which involves the expansion of road and rail networks from the north to south of Pakistan connecting Chinese rail and roads to the ports of Pakistan. The trade expansion and economic possibilities in the Middle East alone is clear, let alone all the projects that China are currently undertaking roughly totalling $1 trillion USD.

The video below the references from Vox is a clear summation of what China's doing and the implications of their actions.

REFERENCES

Carvalho, S & El Dahan, M 2016, 'China's Cosco to Invest $400 Million in New Abu Dhabi Container Terminal', Reuters, 26 September 2016, viewed 27 May 2018, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cosco-shipping-emirates-idUSKCN11Y1N1>.

Center for Strategic and International Studies 2018, Khalifa Port Container Terminal 2, <https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/database/projects/khalifa-port-container-terminal-2/f36cf3cb-2005-4cab-82af-c13d17b167bf/>.

Center for Strategic and International Studies 2018, Reconnecting Asia, <https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/map/>.

Kawashima, S 2018, 'The Risk of One Belt, One Road for China's Neighbours', The Diplomat, 23 April 2018, viewed 26 March 2018, <https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/the-risks-of-one-belt-one-road-for-chinas-neighbors/>.

Vox 2018, China's trillion dollar plan to dominate global trade, online video, 5 April, Vox, viewed 29 April 2018, <China's trillion dollar plan to dominate global trade>.

Political Implications:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:09:29 UTC

In recent months, China’s actions in the South China Sea have consisted mostly of militarisation. This is despite Xi Jinping’s promise in 2015 that China did not intend to militarise the region. Some examples of militarisation include the installation of missile systems on the Spratly Islands for the first time in May. In response, Vietnams foreign ministry spokesperson Le Thi Thu Hang has asserted that these actions are a ‘serious violation of Vietnams sovereignty’, and that the ‘move has increased tension and instability’.

Additionally, on May 18^th Chinese long-range H-6K bombers landed on an air-strip in the South China Sea. In response, Australia has raised objections to china’s activities in the region. Julie Bishop at the G20 meeting in Argentina asserted that Australia possessed the international freedom of navigation and overflight through what China claims is there sovereign territory.

A further implication was observed in March, where the Vietnam state-owned oil company PetroVietnam ordered the Spanish energy firm Repsol to suspend their activities in the region. This is likely due to increased pressure from China and the increased Chinese military threat.

Furthermore, China claims that they have irrefutable sovereignty over the region. A claim recently voiced in the by China in relation to two US warships that sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Parcel Islands on May 27^th.
In April China conducted a massive naval display in the South China Sea, which involved more than 10,000 naval personal, further asserting their claim and showing their military power in the region.

The primary global implications caused by China’s actions are rising tensions in the region. The US has warned China that their actions in militarising the region would have consequences. US navy admiral Harry Harris has told the US congress that America must prepare for the possibility of war. And that China is working to undermine the international rules-based order.

References

ABC, 2018, ‘Chinese long-range bombers land on South China Sea airstrip in show of strength’, ABC News 20 May, viewed 25 May 2018, .

BBC, 2018, ‘South China Sea: Xi Jinping attends massive naval display’, BBC News 13 April, viewed 28 May 2018, .

Doherty, B 2018, ‘Admiral warns US must prepare for possibility of war with China’ The Guardian 16 February, viewed 28 May 2018, .

Murphy, K 2018, ‘Julie Bishop raises objections to China’s activities in South China Sea’, The Guardian 22 May, viewed 23 May 2018, .

Myers, SL 2018, ‘China challenges US Navy ships in South China Sea’, The Sydney Morning Herald 28 May, viewed 28 May 2018, < https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-challenges-us-navy-ships-in-south-china-sea-20180528-p4zhun.html>.

Hayton, B 2018, ‘South China Sea: Vietnam 'scraps new oil project', BBC News 23 March, viewed 25 May 2018, .

Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018, Remarks by MOFA Spokesperson Le Thi Thu Hang on foreign media about China's installation of missiles on structures illegally constructed on Viet Nam’s Truong Sa (Spratly) Archipelagos, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, viewed 23 May 2018, < http://www.mofa.gov.vn/en/tt_baochi/pbnfn/ns180511161602/view>.

Political Implications:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:12:11 UTC

Implications of China’s change in presidential terms have not explicitly evident within such a short amount of time. However, ABC’s China correspondent Matthew Carney highlights the vast difference between what China’s media is pushing and what the western concept of what is happening. In early March, Carney states that the National People’s Congress of China held a meeting to pass rules and laws to ensure even more power over both the public and the private sectors including indefinite presidential terms for Xi Jinping.

Furthermore, pursuing to implement Xi Jinping has a lifelong president. Interestingly enough Carney compares Xi Jinping to historical political figures such as Stalin and explains how the decision that was “rubber stamped” could lead to one of the most dangerous totalitarians.

Additionally, now that Xi Jinping is even more assured that he will remain in power he is able to effectively implement long term policies. The One Belt One Road trade initiative, building of air craft carriers, South China Sea man made islands and many more long-term constructions plans and implemented policies that are possible to continue due to Xi Jinping’s indefinite term as President of China. China’s foreign policy recently has not differed drastically due to the change in political terms however it has had an effect on some states. This indefinite term limits have caused a flow on effect to China’s partners within Africa. Gavin (2018) article looks at Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni who is desperately attempting to cling to power. With the CPC’s step to ensure Xi Jinping is President indefinitely sets a standard for other countries that are wanting to cling to their power to do the same.

Carney, M, China’s National People’s Congress Will Open the Way to a Dicstatorships for President Xi Jinping, ABC, 5 March 2018, viewed on 22 May 2018 <http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-05/china-npc-moves-xi-jinping-towards-dictatorship/9504680

Gavin M.D, Axing Term Limits in China Is a Boon to Africa’s Would be Despots, Council on Foreign Relations, 12 March 2018, viewed on 22 May 2018 <https://www.cfr.org/blog/axing-term-limits-china-boon-africas-would-be-despots>

Secessionist Groups

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:53:15 UTC

Summary of Events

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:54:01 UTC

In order for China to achieve its national interest of ‘creating a socialist harmonious society’ and the 'One China Policy', all areas inside the recognised borders of China must stay under the power and influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Xi Jinping argues that if one region was to break away from the authority of the PRC, it is feared that this would encourage other separatist groups in the state to also do the same and then undermine the power of the government.

This video: What are China's Autonomous Regions?, explains the nature of the secessionist regions and when their reason for emergence.

Political Implications:

19943069 — 2018-05-24 03:54:35 UTC

China’s faces many challenges which impact the way and the extent to which its national interests can be achieved.
Taiwan has attempted to become an independent nation from China and has tried persuade other states to also recognise their sovereignty, however they have been unsuccessful as China has made sure that they don’t receive global support from the international community and have been ‘isolated’ from them.

China fears that if they let Taiwan have their sovereignty, this will encourage other secessionist groups to also do the same – to gain their independence, which will influence states to undermine the actual power China has.

The way that China has handled the situation at hand, despite it being through military action and coercion, has meant that the political standing can be seen as being at stake however, since they have the support from mostly all states in the world regarding the acknowledgement of secessionist regions, their image wouldn’t be affected negatively. Therefore, China’s national interests of creating a harmonious society is getting closer to being achieved. Just recently, Taiwan experienced live fire drills that were conducted by China on their island as a way of creating fear amongst the Taiwanese to refrain them from wanting to separate. (Fullerton, 2018)
Fullerton, Jamie., 2018. China renews military threat against Taiwan as independence push grows. [Online]

Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/27/china-renews-military-threat-against-taiwan-independence-push/

[Accessed 20 May 2018].

The Dominican Republic decided to cut formal ties with Taiwan because they believe that this will strengthen their ties with China, which will be beneficial for the future of their country, as shown in the article below

Robinson, M., 2018. Dominican Republic BREAKS ties with Taiwan to forge relations with China. [Online]
Available at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/953415/Dominican-Republic-breaks-ties-Taiwan-forge-relations-China
[Accessed 17 May 2018].

Political Implications:

19943069 — 2018-05-28 04:24:13 UTC

This has had global consequences for both countries and others involved, as the US and China have two of the biggest economies in the world and over time 'trade wars' can limit international trade entirely. According to Richard Heydarian on the 4^th of April, there were large concerns that the trade war impacted international markets, as well as limiting the way free trade operates globally. Further, increasing the cost of exports had detriments to producers and consumers in both countries. This became an issue for the leaders of both countries, specifically Donald Trump who would be upsetting voters through this action and potentially damaging possibilities of being re-elected. This prompted Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to take measures to alleviate the discontent caused by the trade wars.

Both China and the US decided to drop the threat of tariffs to benefit both countries economically and socially. According to the Stephen Letts on the 20^th of May, this new arrangement is beneficial for employment in the US and also to meet consumption needs of China and to boost its economic development, as the trade tariffs limited both of these.
Although a long term agreement between both countries has not been reached, the trade wars have somewhat been temporarily suspended to address immediate issues caused by the conflict between the US and China.

Haydarian, R 2018 ‘The Global Implications of Trump’s Trade War’ Al Jazeera, viewed 22^nd May < https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/global-implications-trump-trade-war-180403092543220.html >

Letts, S 2018, ‘Trade War Averted? China Agrees to 'Substantially' Reduce Trade Surplus With The US’, ABC, viewed 21^st May < http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-20/china-agrees-to-substantially-reduce-trade-surplus-with-us/9777482 >

Summary of Events

phil_j_thompson88 — 2018-05-28 05:43:10 UTC

On the 27^th of April 2018, South Korean president Moon Jae-In and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un came together for a historic Inter-Korean Summit to discuss the possibility of peace between the two states and further, the denuclearisation of North Korea.

Political Implications

phil_j_thompson88 — 2018-05-28 05:44:15 UTC

China makes up 90% of North Korean Imports and exports. Therefore, holding strong political leverage over future relations between North Korea, South Korea and the United States

China will be looking to avert unfavourable regional strategic power balance as a result of the proposed summit between the United States and North Korea.
The current US campaign of Maximum pressure could one, play into the hands China whilst further alienating North Korea and two, prove counterproductive to peace and denuclearisation of the peninsula. North Korea better align with Chinese foreign policy as China push for multilateral dialogue and economic prosperity for it’s neighbours that comes with continued stability. In this instance China would call for a ‘freeze for freeze,’ a freeze in military exercises in the region and for the denuclearisation. North Korea has stated that Pyongyang’s vision of denuclearisation is not one of unilateral agreement on the denuclearisation. Therefore Costs must be incurred by all involved parties.

19943069 — 2018-05-28 06:20:44 UTC

The rapid growth of China’s economy has sparked debate over the rise and ambitions of China. As a group we have sort to highlight its rise through its overly assertive actions in the South China Sea, it’s use of international diplomacy shown through the current US-China trade war, China’s push for continued multilateral talks over the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and their One Belt One Road Policy.

China’s rise is further highlight by the change in presidential terms which has given autonomous power to the Chinese Communist party which provides Xi Jinping with the time to further Chinese national interest without internal challenge.

Despite China’s rapid economic rise it’s inability to deal with secessionists like Taiwan highlight just a one of the many problems it faces if it is to become anything more than an economic power house on the international arena.