North Dakota Senate by Gwyneth Lloyd https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate Midterm Election Analysis en-us 2018-11-04 21:51:42 UTC 2026-01-07 20:54:39 UTC hello@padlet.com https://padlet-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/icons/Balance.png Heidi Heitkamp 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300257284 Incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for reelection. Born and raised in North Dakota, Heidi grew up in the small, rural town of Mantador. Through her time in office she helped to write and pass a strong Farm Bill, protect access to quality health care for seniors, veterans and rural residents, and strengthen her state’s energy industry. She was also North Dakota’s former Attorney General, and the state’s former Tax Commissioner. Through her leadership on the Senate small business and regulatory affairs committees, Heidi has taken on many regulations facing small business owners in the state by fighting back against damaging Washington one-size-fits-all regulations. Heitkamp has been described as a moderate Democrat. She is considered a centrist and often supports bipartisan legislation. The National Journal has given her a composite rating of 53% liberal and 47% conservative.Heidi currently lives in Mandan with her husband, Dr. Darwin Lange. They have two grown children, Ali and Nathan.

]]> 2018-11-04 22:11:01 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300257284 Demographic Makeup 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300261238
  • Population estimates, July 1, 2017 | 755,393
  • Race and Hispanic Origin
    • White alone | 87.5%
    • Black or African American alone | 3.1%
    • American Indian and Alaska Native alone | 5.5%
    • Asian alone | 1.6%
    • Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone | 0.1%
    • Two or More Races | 2.2%
    • Hispanic or Latino, percent | 3.7%
  • Age and Sex
    • Persons under 5 years | 7.2%
    • Persons under 18 years | 23.3%
    • Persons 65 years and over | 15.0%
    • Female persons | 48.7%
  • Education
    • High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25 years+, 2012-2016 | 92.0%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25 years+, 2012-2016 | 28.2%
  • Health
    • With a disability, under age 65 years, percent, 2012-2016 | 7.1%
    • Persons without health insurance, under age 65 years, percent | 8.8%

    • ]]>     2018-11-04 22:40:01 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300261238     Voter Turnout 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300262198 2014 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS
    November 4, 2014

    STATEWIDE TURNOUT

    46.81%
    Voter Turnout | 255,128
    Eligible Voters | 545,020

    PRECINCTS REPORTED

    100%
    Precincts Reported | 427
    Total Precincts | 427

    ]]>     2018-11-04 22:47:27 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300262198     Voter Registration Laws 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300262909 North Dakota does not require voters to register prior to Election Day. You may simply bring acceptable proof of ID and residency to the polls in order to vote. Each precinct is responsible for governing its own election process, and the Secretary of State has a "central voter file" in which all county auditors share their precinct's voter list.

    In order to vote in North Dakota, you must be:
    • At least 18 years old on or before Election Day.
    • A North Dakota resident.
    • A resident of your voter precinct for at least 30 days prior to the election.

    When you arrive at the polls on Election Day, you'll need to show proof of birth date and residency. This can include:
    • A North Dakota driver's license or ID card.
    • An ID issued by a tribal government.
    • A form of identification issued by the Secretary of State.
    • A combination of the options above.

    If you are in the military and stationed outside of North Dakota, a dependent of military personnel, a U.S. citizen who lives overseas, or will be out of state  you can complete an absentee ballot application online or by mail.
    To complete the application online, simply log onto the North Dakota Secretary of State (SOS) website.

    You will need to enter:
    • Your name.
    • Your ND address.
    • Your mailing address.

    ]]>     2018-11-04 22:51:56 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300262909     2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263674 2018-11-04 22:57:36 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263674 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263925 2018-11-04 22:59:28 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263925 Kevin Cramer 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263980 The challenger to incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is Kevin Cramer. Cramer a republican, was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives on Nov. 6, 2012. He serves on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Rep. Cramer is assigned to three subcommittees: Communications and Technology, Energy, and Environment. In November 2016, Cramer was elevated to the influential House Republican Steering Committee as the Small State Representative. He is co-chairman of the House Rural Broadband Caucus which develops policy solutions addressing rural America’s digital divide. He also serves as co-chairman of the Northern Border Caucus, which fosters continued growth in the relationship between the United States and Canada and is a founding Chair of the Congressional Kids’ Safety Caucus. He is North Dakota’s only member of the House of Representatives. Cramer has had a distinguished career in public service. In 1991, he was elected Chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, making him the youngest member of the Republican National Committee. From 1993 to 2000, he served in Governor Ed Schafer’s cabinet, first as State Tourism Director from 1993 to 1997, then as State Economic Development & Finance Director from 1997 to 2000. From 2000 to 2003, he was Executive Director of the Harold Schafer Leadership Foundation. In 2003, then-Governor John Hoeven appointed Cramer to the Public Service Commission, and in 2004 he was elected to the position, gaining more than 65 percent of the vote.  He was re-elected in 2010 with 61.5 percent of the vote in a three-person contest. As North Dakota Public Service Commissioner, Cramer helped to oversee the most dynamic economy in the nation. He worked to ensure North Dakotans enjoy some of the lowest utility rates in the nation, enhancing their competitive position in the global marketplace. Cramer has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Concordia College in Moorhead, Minnesota, a master’s degree in Management from the University of Mary in Bismarck, North Dakota, and was conferred the degree of Doctor of Leadership, honoris causa, by the University of Mary on May 4, 2013. Overall Cramer appears to be strongly Conservative with his stance in most public issues.]]> 2018-11-04 22:59:54 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300263980 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264062 2018-11-04 23:00:28 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264062 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264086 2018-11-04 23:00:44 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264086 Public Opinion Polls On Favorability of the candidate to win 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264821 2018-11-04 23:06:12 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300264821 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300265193 2018-11-04 23:09:00 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300265193 Campaign Ads 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300265863 2018-11-04 23:14:29 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300265863 Interest Groups 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300266818 Liberal Group
    Center Forward | SuperPAC | $124,996
    Demand Justice | 501c | $93,221
    Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte | PAC | $2,050,782
    End Citizens United | PAC | $35,000
    Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund | 501c | $861
    Majority Forward | 501c | $1,102,666
    Majority Forward | 501c | $77,969
    MomsRising Together | 501c | $1,192
    Montana Native Vote | 501c | $113,600
    Moveon.org | Carey | $9,340
    People for the American Way | 501c | $30,924
    Priorities USA Action | Carey | $833,364
    Senate Majority PAC | SuperPAC | $3,867,922
    Together We Thrive | SuperPAC | $735
    Working America | 501c | $700
    Conservative Group
    America First Action | SuperPAC | $567,943
    America First Policies | 501c | $183,278
    American Freedom & Opportunity PAC | SuperPAC | $5,000
    CatholicVote.org | SuperPAC | $380
    CatholicVote.org | 501c | $11,800
    CONSERVATIVE TRUST OF AMERICA | SuperPAC | $1,903
    Ending Spending Action Fund | SuperPAC | $415,004
    Faith Family Freedom Fund | SuperPAC | $200
    Family Policy Alliance | 501c | $33,860
    Freedom's Defense Fund | PAC | $59,093
    Future In America II | SuperPAC | $23,500
    National Assn for Gun Rights | PAC | $22,143
    National Assn of Home Builders | 501c | $164,401
    National Horizon | SuperPAC | $5,000
    National Republican Senatorial Cmte | PAC | $2,930,552
    National Rifle Assn | PAC | $3,044
    National Right to Life | PAC | $2,490
    Republican Jewish Coalition | 501c | $866,384
    Republican Party of North Dakota | PAC | $703,615
    Restoration PAC | SuperPAC | $15,000
    Senate Leadership Fund | SuperPAC | $3,123,105
    Stars & Stripes Forever PAC | SuperPAC | $5,203
    Susan B Anthony List | PAC | $21,402
    Susan B Anthony List | 501c | $114,729
    Women Speak Out PAC | SuperPAC | $33,464
    Mixed Viewpoint
    American Chemistry Council | 501c | $153,300]]>     2018-11-04 23:22:13 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300266818     2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300269523 2018-11-04 23:35:50 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300269523 2016 Presidential Candidate Vote 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300269988 OFFICIAL 2016 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
    June 14, 2016

    STATEWIDE TURNOUT

    24.51%
    Voter Turnout | 139,957
    Eligible Voters | 570,955

    PRECINCTS REPORTED

    100%
    Precincts Reported | *432
    Total Precincts | 432

    ]]>     2018-11-04 23:39:07 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300269988     Endorsements 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300270882 Heidi Heitkamp]]> 2018-11-04 23:45:56 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300270882 Endorsements 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300271187 Kevin Cramer]]> 2018-11-04 23:48:08 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300271187 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300271399 Endorsements play an important role in political races. They signal a candidate's level of support among party leaders, and can make donors open their checkbooks. Endorsements from unions and other powerful groups can also help drive voter turnout.]]> 2018-11-04 23:49:42 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300271399 Issues of Debate 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300272881 Abortion
    • Cramer opposes abortion. He is a critic of Planned Parenthood and has called for cutting off public funding of the group. (In line)
    • When running for Senate in 2012, Heitkamp said she opposed public funding of abortions and believed that "late term abortions should be illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother." (Not in line)
    Health care
    • Cramer opposes the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and has voted to repeal it without a replacement five times. He has voted against health insurance protections for patients with pre-existing conditions and against the expansion of Medicaid. (In line)
    • Heitkamp has said that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act contains "good and bad" elements and that "it needs to be fixed." She criticized her Senate opponent Rick Berg for wanting to repeal the law, citing concerns about insurance companies denying coverage to children with preexisting conditions. (In line)
    Supreme Court
    • In 2018, Cramer said that both Anita Hill's sexual harassment allegations against Clarence Thomas and Christine Blasey Ford's sexual assault allegations against Brett Kavanaugh were "absurd". (In line)
    • In October 2018, Heitkamp voted against confirming Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, amid allegations that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted women. (In line)
    ]]>     2018-11-05 00:01:28 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300272881     Thesis 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300273156 I believe Kevin Cramer is favorable to win the 2018 North Dakota Senate race.]]> 2018-11-05 00:03:45 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300273156 Evidence 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300273224 Since 1900, North Dakota voted Democratic 17.24 percent of the time and Republican 82.76 percent of the time. Since 1968, the state has always voted Republican. Along with the history of being a republican leaning state an overwhelming amount of public opinion polls have Cramer in the lead by a relatively small margin of error. This evidence can be seen below and in the column preceding this one labeled 'Politics of the Race'.]]> 2018-11-05 00:04:24 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300273224 Counter Argument 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300274130 However, Heidi Heitkamp is still not to be completely disregarded as she has won before on the democratic platform. Thus, she is an incumbent and incumbents win reelection roughly 87.6% of the time.]]> 2018-11-05 00:12:18 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300274130 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300297765
  • Kvly. “Poll: Cramer Widens Gap over Heitkamp in US Senate Race to 16 Points.” KVLY - Content - News, www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/Poll-Cramer-widens-gap-over-Heitkamp-in-senate-race-to-16-points-498224261.html.
  • Rubin, Jennifer, and Washington Post. “In Several Close Senate Races, Voter Turnout Will Make the Difference.” HeraldCourier.com, 4 Nov. 2018, www.heraldcourier.com/opinion/in-several-close-senate-races-voter-turnout-will-make-the/article_cc6de4c4-1411-5a11-9ef4-fe270be54f86.html.
  • Bauroth, Nicholas. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in North Dakota.” Brookings, Brookings, 2 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/11/02/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-north-dakota/.
  • Staff, Newsy. “Midterm Matchup: 'What The Fact' Checks North Dakota Senate Race.” WPTV, 29 Sept. 2018, www.wptv.com/newsy/midterm-matchup-what-the-fact-checks-north-dakota-senate-race.
  • “North Dakota 2018 Senate Election Polls.” North Dakota 2018 Senate Polls, www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/north-dakota/.
  • Arkin, James, et al. “Senate Polls: GOP Leads in North Dakota, 4 Other Races Close.” POLITICO, 3 Oct. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/10/03/senate-midterms-polls-829127.
  • DataDhrumil. “North Dakota U.S. Senate Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 2 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/north-dakota/.
  • NateSilver538. “North Dakota - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 3 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/north-dakota/.
  • “Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics.” Pew Research Center's Religion & Public Life Project, 11 May 2015, www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/north-dakota/.
  • “Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html.
  • “U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: North Dakota.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, www.census.gov/quickfacts/nd.
  • “Preparing Export...” North Dakota Secretary of State, results.sos.nd.gov/Default.aspx?map=Cty&eid=126.
  • “Voter Registration in North Dakota.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/nd-north-dakota/voter-registration.php.
  • “North Dakota Population 2018.” North Dakota Population 2018 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs), worldpopulationreview.com/states/north-dakota-population/.
  • “Enter Search Criteria.” Election Results Portal, vip.sos.nd.gov/PortalListDetails.aspx?ptlhPKID=62&ptlPKID=4.
  • “Content Display Issues.” North Dakota Presidential Election Voting History, www.270towin.com/states/North_Dakota.
  • “The Power of Senate Incumbency.” The Washington Post, WP Company, www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/politics/the-power-of-senate-incumbency/1051/.
  • Peterson, Kristina. “Heitkamp Takes a Familiar Role in North Dakota Senate Race: Underdog.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 1 Nov. 2018, www.wsj.com/articles/heitkamp-takes-a-familiar-role-in-north-dakota-senate-race-underdog-1541071800.
  • Pindell, James. “Here's Your Ultimate Cheat Sheet of House and Senate Races to Watch on Election Night - The Boston Globe.” BostonGlobe.com, 3 Nov. 2018, www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/11/03/here-your-ultimate-cheat-sheet-house-and-senate-races-watch-election-night/Ox3D9MfEnvQVJjqrYQfzJK/story.html.
  • DeSanctis, Alexandra. “Cramer Expands Lead over Democratic Senator Heitkamp in North Dakota Race.” National Review, National Review, 22 Oct. 2018, www.nationalreview.com/corner/kevin-cramer-expands-lead-over-democratic-senator-heitkamp-in-north-dakota-race/.
  • “North Dakota Democrat's Chances Look Slim - CNN Video.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Oct. 2018, www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/10/31/senate-midterms-north-dakota-heidi-heitkamp-kevin-cramer-chalian-orig-js.cnn.
  • “Heidi Only Answers to You.” Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate, heidifornorthdakota.com/heidi-only-answers-to-you/.
  • “Heidi Heitkamp: 'Denise' | Campaign 2018.” The Washington Post, WP Company, www.washingtonpost.com/video/editorial/campaign-ads-2018/heidi-heitkamp-denise--campaign-2018/2018/08/17/8f925924-a24c-11e8-a3dd-2a1991f075d5_video.html?utm_term=.f5b5e184e4e7.
  • “Contribute.” Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate, www.kevincramer.org/contribute/?gclid=CjwKCAjwsfreBRB9EiwAikSUHa6TNXrsDhDWpv8jtwx0fSq2zdgtBp6cIQR-bOpZFTHqBw5RS7hyGRoCd_cQAvD_BwE.
  • “Republican National Committee.” GOP, gop.com/.
  • “The Democrats.” Democrats, democrats.org/.
  • “Secretary of State |.” Secretary of State |, sos.nd.gov/.
  • “North Dakota Senate 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=NDS2.
  • “North Dakota Senate Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/industries?cycle=2018&id=NDS2&spec=N.
  • “Kevin Cramer Jobs Ad.” Vimeo, 4 Nov. 2018, vimeo.com/292598309.

    • ]]>     2018-11-05 03:00:20 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300297765     Campaign Spending 2019lloydg https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300298329 Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Raised $27,017,315 | Spent $16,019,959 

    Kevin Cramer (R) | Raised $5,531,588 | Spent $4,951,051 ]]>     2018-11-05 03:04:31 UTC https://padlet.com/2019lloydg/NorthDakotaSenate/wish/300298329