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Ted Cruz is the incumbent Senator, finishing up his first term in the Senate. Cruz was formerly the Solicitor General for the state of Texas.

Ted Cruz has been a polarizing figure in the Republican party, often straying from the party line and portraying a further right ideology than the party generally appeals to.

        Beyond that, Texans make about the same amount of money as the average citizen of the United States. However, they are twice as likely (20% vs 10%) to not have health insurance before age 65.

Amy McGrath was commissioned as Second Lieutenant in the US Marine Corps, and became the first woman to fly F-18 on a combat mission in Afghanistan. She flew a total of 89 missions before retiring.

In the 2014 Midterms, by contrast, only 36.4% of the Voting Age Population voted.

 Margin of Error: 4.5, fairly high but within an acceptable range.

 Sample: 716 Likely Voters, sample size is acceptable

 Source: CNN is a fairly liberal organization, but seeing as this poll doesn’t seem to give Beto O’ Rourke a sizable advantage over other polls, it is fairly reliable. However, the poll was taken almost a month ago, relevance is questionable.

Margin of Error: 4.0, acceptable Margin of Error
Sample: 588 Likely Voters, sample size is a little small
Source: The source does not seem to have a large political bias but the poll’s credibility is called into the question by the small sample and outlier result. According to this poll, within the most generous scenario, O’ Rourke is unlikely to win.

Source:  There is no strong bias to either party from this source. The sample size and margin of error are acceptable and the poll is recent. The result does raise some eyebrows because of the outlier result, creating a sharp contrast between the Dixie Strategies poll taken just 2 days earlier.

Margin of Error: +4.9, a fairly high MoE, cause for concern

Sample: 506 people, sample is within an acceptable range of people.
Source: Conducted by the New York Times Upshot and Siena College. The New York Times leans left on the political spectrum. The poll was taken a few months back, so whether or not it still applies is in question. In addition, the margin of error was quite large. This poll cannot be used reliably to predict the winner of the race, but gives insight into how it has changed over time.

   Ted Cruz has also been the top recipient of funds from Gun Rights organizations, most notable the National Rifle Association (NRA)

In general, Ted Cruz has been receiving most of his funds from national or party organizations, not from state organizations. This shows that the entire Republican party has a huge interest in the outcome of this race.

O’ Rourke has received almost no money from PACs, and all of the PAC money spent was by Candidate Committees such as “Jim Himes for Congress”.

Much like Ted Cruz, the types of organizations spending money on Beto O’ Rourke’s race has indicates a high level of national attention that outweighs state-level participation.

Interestingly, many celebrities have chosen to endorse O' Rourke unlike Cruz. Kevin Bacon, Stephen King, Mark Ruffalo, Ron Perlman, Sarah Jessica Parker, and Aubrey Plaza have all chosen to endorse Beto O’ Rourke. This is important because people who follow these celebrities will listen to them and may be encouraged to vote by their support.

Many Texas newspapers such as the Austin Chronicle, the Houston Chronicle, the El Paso Times, and Dallas Morning News have endorsed O’ Rourke. People who read newspapers either in paper or online may be moved to vote for Beto O’ Rourke.

Coming from a border city made of immigrants, Beto O’ Rourke has made a firm stance supporting compassionate and comprehensive border reform. O’ Rourke also wants to make Dreamers into U.S. Citizens. Democrats generally agree with this ideology, but Beto O’ Rourke considers it one of his number one issues.

Ted Cruz has maintained a similar stance to most of his fellow Republican lawmakers. He supports strong and protected borders, deportation of illegal immigrants, and has taken a negative stance on the “caravan”.

Beto O’ Rourke has voted in favor of the Affordable Care Act as a member of the House. He believes that everyone should be given healthcare, and that everyone should be able to pay for it. O’ Rourke has claimed many times that Ted Cruz is trying to take Texans’ healthcare away. This stance is consistent with the party at large.

Ted Cruz has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act multiple times. He believes there should be a different and smarter solution to healthcare. He has supported certain elements of the ACA, mainly coverage for pre-existing conditions. This stance is consistent with the party at large.

Beto O’ Rourke believes that man-made climate change is a real problem. He supports the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as renewable energy. This stance is consistent with the Democratic Party.

Ted Cruz believes there is not enough evidence to support the notion that man-made climate change is occurring. He supported the President’s decision to pull out from the Paris Climate Agreement. This stance is fairly consistent with the Republican Party.

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.”
     OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

OnTheIssues.org. “OnTheIssues.org - Candidates on the Issues.”
     OnTheIssues.org - Candidates on the Issues, www.ontheissues.org/.

“Emerson Poll: West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV.” Emerson College, 1 Nov. 2018, www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv#.W9r91pNKiUl.

Fink, Jack, and Geoff Petrulis. “Wave Not So Blue in Texas; Cruz, Abbott Pull Ahead In Latest Poll.” CBS Dallas / Fort Worth, 30 Oct. 2018, dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/10/30/cruz-abbott-pull-ahead-in-latest-poll/.

“CNN Texas Senate Race Poll.” CNN, CNN, 16 Oct. 2018, cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf.

Staff, Washington Post. “Texas Primary Election Results 2018:
     Governor, Senate and House Races.” The Washington 

     Post, WP Company, 26 Oct. 2018,
     www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/texas-march-6/2018-
     primary-results/?utm_term=.d286c95de527.

State of Texas - Secretary of State. “Texas Secretary of State World
     Wide Web Homepage.” Texas Secretary of State, 

     www.sos.state.tx.us/.

Texas, Beto for, director. Showing Up . YouTube, YouTube, 26 July
     2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZUFA67aS1Q.

“For U.S. Senate: Beto O'Rourke.” HoustonChronicle.com, Houston Chronicle, 20 Oct. 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Senate-Beto-ORourke-Ted-Cruz-2018-endorsement-13320986.php.

El Paso Times Editorial Board. “Texas Needs More Bipartisanship: We Endorse Beto O'Rourke for US Senate.” El Paso Times, El Paso Times, 21 Oct. 2018, www.elpasotimes.com/story/opinion/2018/10/21/texas-needs-more-bipartisanship-we-endorse-beto-orourke-senate/1712587002/.

Margin of Error: 4.5, slightly high but within an acceptable range

Sample: 501 LV, sample size is on the small side of average.

Source: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group is a partisan polling organization that provides polls for “Democratic candidates and progressive causes”. As a result, this source is highly partisan, and when combined with the outlandish result, it paints a clear picture that this poll cannot be trusted.

Margin of Error: 4.9, fairly high within the acceptable range

Sample: 400 RV, small sample size, and of Registered Voters who may or may not be likely to vote.

Source: Public Opinion Strategies is a neutral organization. However, their roots are in campaign strategy, and they claim their research is focused on getting results. As a result, this poll is also fairly untrustworthy, especially when you factor in the high margin of error and use of Registered Voters over Likely Voters.

Barr has received a large amount of money from the Securities and Investment Industry. Top contributors to the Republican party in this industry include the Blackstone Group, Citadel LLC, and Elliott Management.

These top investors indicate that Barr either has a friendly relationship with top financial organizations, or that they believe he represents their interests.

McGrath has also self-financed her campaign with $3,573.

The rest of the money McGrath has made comes from large individual contributions, chief among them from Universities. The top two individual donations to McGrath’s campaign came from the University of Kentucky ($68,115) and the University of California ($31,421). Harvard College has also donated $18,502.

McGrath loves to boast about she’s running a campaign for the people, and criticize Barr’s financial connections. Her donations back up this claim, as unlike Barr, she personally donated to her own campaign. She also received nearly a quarter of her money from small individual contributions, mostly people of Kentucky.

Andy Barr has also been endorsed by some organizations such as the National Rifle Association, National Right to Life, Kentucky Professional Firefighters, and the National Vietnam & Gulf War Veterans.

McGrath has been endorsed by the United Steelworkers, and by the Kentucky Herald-Leader, who described her as careful, disciplined, reasonable, and impressively positive.

In attack ads by Andy Barr, McGrath was claimed to support late-term and nine-month abortions. McGrath has denied this, claiming that there was no evidence to back up the statement. She describes herself as pro-choice, but admits that there should be restrictions on abortion.

Andy Barr considers himself pro-life, even going so far as to say that unborn babies should be protected under the 14th amendment. Barr also opposes providing birth control to women.

Amy McGrath has been the target of negative attack ads by Barr containing clips where she called herself “the most progressive person in the state of Kentucky.” McGrath denies this, saying that the clip was taken out of context. Furthermore, McGrath also stated that the Democrats supported her opponent in the primary, and presents herself as a multi-faceted candidate with opinions on either side of the spectrum.

Barr has been criticized for simply being a puppet of the Republican party. He voted for legislation that Trump supported 97% of the time. Barr has fired back by stating that Kentucky’s economy is doing better than ever, and that they are accomplishing significant legislative goals.

For Amy McGrath, affordable healthcare is a must for a civilized society. She strongly supports the Affordable Care Act.

Barr has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act many times, calling it “a 2700-page job destroyer”. Barr prefers free-market based health insurance over federal health insurance.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug3Ges9MujE. 

Barr, Andy, director. Kentucky Values . YouTube, YouTube, 3 Nov. 2018, 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALGGxUKxiYc. 

Board, Herald-Leader editorial. “Do Your Country a Favor. Send Amy McGrath to Congress.” Kentucky, Lexington Herald Leader, www.kentucky.com/opinion/editorials/article220685975.html. 

“Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections.” Voter Rights - State Board of Elections, 

elect.ky.gov/Voters/Pages/Voter-Rights.aspx.  

Congress, Amy McGrath for, director. Inevitable. YouTube, YouTube, 10 Aug. 2018, 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP3__SYoNLg. 

Congress, Amy McGrath for, director. Told Me . YouTube, YouTube, 1 Aug. 2017, 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk. 

“DW Home.” Democracy Works, www.democracy.works/.

“Kentucky Election Results 2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 

www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/kentucky.

“Kentucky Results.” CNN Politics, CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/kentucky.

“Kentucky Sixth Congressional District Map .” Wuky, Legislative Research Commission , 

www.wuky.org/post/closer-look-sixth-congressional-district-map#stream/0. 

OnTheIssues.org. “On the Issue Amy McGrath .” Amy McGrath on the Issues, 

www.ontheissues.org/House/Amy_McGrath.htm.

McGrath, Amy. “Twitter.” Twitter, twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY.  

OnTheIssues.org. “Andy Barr On the Issues.” Andy Barr on the Issues, 

www.ontheissues.org/House/Andy_Barr.htm.

Multiple NYT Contributors. “Midterm Election Poll: Kentucky's 6th District, Barr vs. McGrath.” 

The New York Times, The 

New York Times, 1 Nov. 2018, 

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ky06-3.html.

“Rep. Andy Barr - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets,  

www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00031233. 

“Re: Recent Kentucky 6th CD Survey.” Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Hart Research, 4 Oct. 2018, 

Blizzard, Robert, and Gene Ulm. “Re: Kentucky CD-6 Poll Results.” Public Opinion Strategies, Public Opinion 

Strategies, 9 Oct. 2018, www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-5a27-dd6e-a17e-feefbb640001.

“Rep. Garland ‘Andy’ Barr, Amy McGrath Win Kentucky 6th Congressional District        

Primaries.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Oct. 2018, www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/kentucky-6th-congressional-district/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6306eb82d526. 

US Census Bureau. “Census.gov.” Census.gov, www.census.gov/.