1. Failure to anticipate a problem before it arrived (Winnie & Pierre) by Elizabeth Tang

Covid-19 and its impact

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SIR model

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S' = Susceptible

I' = Infected

R' = Recovered

R0 = Reproductive ratio

r = Rate of recovery

Without an existing vaccine

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Low recovery rate
Peak of infection is earlier
Larger percentage of the population is infected
Disrupting lifestyles and work

Development of vaccine

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Reproductive rate decreases
Peak of infection is prolonged
Less disruptions in work and productivity of the country

Did Singapore respond successfully?

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Initial wave (March 2020):

2.2% contraction in Singapore's GDP (Tan, 2020).
Overwhelmed healthcare institutes

Subsequent waves: Successful responses (Arnold Toynbee)

Covid-19 task force
Safety and distancing measures
Vaccination & herd immunity (Prodanov, 2022)

An empty Orchard Road in 2020

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A lack of prior experience can leave citizens more vulnerable and susceptible to the virus, leading to long term economic and social impacts

References

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Prodanov, D. (2022). Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model. In Elsevier eBooks (pp. 163–189). https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-32-390504-6.00015-2

Tan, J. B., Cook, M. J., Logan, P., Rozanova, L., & Wilder-Smith, A. (2020). Singapore’s Pandemic Preparedness: An Overview of the First Wave of COVID-19. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(1), 252. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010252

The Advancements: Steam and Coal Transformed Industries

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Machines began to be powered by steam and coal, transforming industries like textiles and iron (Elcic, 2022).

The Human Cost

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Skilled workers were replaced by machines, and people flooded into cities to work in factories.

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AI, automation, and virtual reality are changing our world faster than we ever imagined.

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It's exciting, but...

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Every time a technological revolution happens, it comes with major challenges, particularly for workers

The Problem

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We fail to anticipate these issues because we forget the lessons of the past.

Dangerous, Exploitative Factories Forcing Children to Work Long Hours

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The Huge Impacts

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Millions of people lost their livelihoods or were forced into unsafe working conditions.

Reactive Measures: The Factory Act of 1833

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Computers, Automation & Digital Technology

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In factories, robots began to take over tasks that had previously been done by humans. Clerical jobs were replaced by computers, and entire sectors of work became automated.

Cars could be made entirely by machines

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The U.S. alone lost about 7 million manufacturing jobs during the Third Industrial Revolution

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George Santayana famously said...

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Jared Diamond Echoes This Sentiment

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Decision failures like being unable to anticipate a problem before it arrives often occur because the experiences have happened so long ago it has been forgotten (Diamond, 2005).

The Repeat: The Displacement of Workers Caused by New Technologies 200 Years Ago

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The lack of systems in place to protect people from job loss caused what was meant to be an advancement in society to, once again, leave millions of people behind.

AI has the potential to transform industries even more dramatically than computers did.

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We Remember! 😆

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We have the opportunity to learn from the past. By preparing today—through diversifying our skill sets and encouraging careful regulation—we can ensure that the benefits of AI and automation are shared by everyone, rather than leaving millions of people behind.

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Acemoglu, D., Restrepo, P., & National Bureau of Economic Research. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. In NBER Working Paper Series (No. 23285). https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23285/w23285.pdf

Armenta, A. (2024). A History of Industrial Revolutions and How They’ve Impacted Manufacturing. Control Automation. https://control.com/technical-articles/a-history-of-industrial-revolutions-and-how-theyve-impacted-manufacturing/

Brix. (2020, June 23). What colour is your collar? | Brix Projects Blog. https://www.brixprojects.com.au/what-colour-is-your-collar/

CNN. (2024). AI will shrink workforces within five years, say company execs. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/business/ai-job-losses/index.html#:~:text=Many%20company%20executives%20expect%20to,they%20increasingly%20use%20artificial%20intelligence.&text=The%20use%20of%20artificial%20intelligence,C%2Dsuite%20executives%20published%20Friday.

Diamond, J. M. (2005). Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed. Choice Reviews Online, 43(02), 43–1028. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.43-1028

Digital. (2021, August 17). An emerging third industrial revolution. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/futuresource/an-emerging-third-industrial-revolution/

Elcic, M. (2022, March 3). The First Industrial Revolution - Miljan Elcic - medium. Medium. https://medium.com/@elmiljan/the-first-industrial-revolution-95ef75ae4315

Kruger, M. (2024, August 30). The Job Displacement Dilemma: How AI automation threatens traditional employment. Linvelo. https://linvelo.com/the-job-displacement-dilemma/

Shah, H. (2024, February 23). Fourth Industrial Revolution & its Impact. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fourth-industrial-revolution-its-impact-harshad-shah-zjmuf/

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2024, August 24). Child labor | Definition, History, Laws, & Facts. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/topic/child-labour

Wolff, C. (2024, September 29). 13 Extraordinary facts about industrialization and urbanization - Facts.net. Facts.net. https://facts.net/science/geography/13-extraordinary-facts-about-industrialization-and-urbanization/

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"The Job Market is Bad"

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If we attempt to enter the job market of 2030 with the skill sets of 2023, things are unlikely to get better.

Despite the lessons from the First Industrial Revolution, governments once again reacted too late, introducing retraining programs only after the losses had already occurred.

e1139166 — 2024-10-02 01:58:19 UTC