Culture n identity crisis

Leveraging their position while they are still number 1

• job security (losing manufacturing jobs)

• Reduce trade surplus

Increased unhappiness, hence the need for governments to take more drastic and harsher approaches to be seen as decisive (to gain votes)

2) US wants to bring back manufacturing

3) US wants to go back to the good old days

4) China (in terms of South China Sea)

Resources, etc

5) Why is Canada considering the F35 repurchase?

The Trump administration is voted into power to Make America Great Again. The voters do not want to give up their world standing and way of life to China who is touted to take over world dominance.

China wants to have apresence in every country. Wants to be super power. Start one belt one road

Overall nett effect might be greater uncertainty, which will results in slower growth overall given the increased fear.

Singapore, while just a price taker, will also need to dynamically adjust based on global trajectories.

Every crisis will lead to opportunities as well. Perhaps it will drive people to innovate in new sectors to reduce risk?

Don’t know who is friends

Reduces trade

SG economy is most exposed to global growth. Gdp forecasts will be downgraded.

Rivalry between USA and China the two biggest markets

Donald trump as the leader wants to solve the USA deficit problem and stop earnings of the rest of the world ?

This throws the world and the economy into disarray

Bigger countries will fight back

Singapore will be affected although we only get 10% tariffs

If the USA and China don’t trade , trade will not flow or pass through us .

Shipping will be affected in Singapore

Technological aspect? Micro chips might be affected batteries and Ai ; America wants to change ?

Implication for Singapore : will be accused on importing chips to other countries want

Implications : most markets stay within the country . And then there will be controlled or limited sharing of items/ resources / information. Especially when things come to a standstill

2) NVIDIA case - implicated even when it is not our fault

3) May be forced to choose sides

We are tier 2 in terms of technology export from US.

Affect our overall technology investor investment

Technological advances and sharing between countries

Standstill of lack of trade between countries or eventually having to take sides ? Balance between the sides .

Can we use the reduced tariffs in Singapore to our advantage ? How to balance between using to our advantage and abusing it

Improve sg attractiveness for talent

Has the Govt identified potential directions to point us to?

Unity and cohesion will hold Singaporeans together.

Job security will be at risk, cost of living will rise with the tariffs.

Will the ASEAN member countries hold together in the face of tariffs?

Key Impacts on Singapore:

• Trade and Economy: Rising U.S.-China tensions and protectionist policies, such as new tariffs under President Trump, could disrupt global trade. However, Singapore’s strategic position as a neutral hub and its proximity to ASEAN growth centers make it an attractive location for diversified production and trade flows. Growth is projected at 1-3%, slowed by global uncertainties but supported by trade-related services and manufacturing.

• Foreign Policy: Balancing relations with major powers remains critical. Singapore must carefully manage its ties with the U.S. and China while addressing regional issues like South China Sea disputes. Domestic political shifts and rising foreign interference could further complicate foreign policy decisions.

• Energy and Supply Chains: The Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have increased energy costs and supply chain vulnerabilities. Singapore’s reliance on global trade makes it sensitive to these disruptions.

• Social Cohesion: Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Israel-Gaza war, could strain Singapore’s multicultural society. Rising political scrutiny at home may also affect governance and policy continuity.

Despite these challenges, Singapore’s adaptability and strong diplomatic stance position it to leverage opportunities in a fragmented global order.

- stiff competition, especially from china.- pre-WW2, inwards, but post, has become more outward. Protectionist policies

- increase tariffs for the local domestic market, sell American goods. Buying foreign cars vs American cars due to comparable quality and better price.

- trump's actions are result of his backers, lobbyists. Lobbyists interests are to attract local investment

- republican supporters are blue collared workers, manufacturing, hence he is pandering towards bringing manufacturing back.

In the long term, if the US does not renegotiate the tariffs, they may actually hasten the loss in trust in the US and the USD. It opens the way for a multi polar world.

• SG is a net importer of goods, will not affect us to a large negative extent. However, If all countries follow suit and trend is set that agreements are no longer respected, we will move towards a space where countries no longer trust in agreements.

Work closer with BRICS. 😅

- bolster our ties with other countries diplomatically to reduce our reliance on US both on trade and defence since we have seen that US can no longer be reliably trusted as the voice of reason

Economic Strategies

• Diversification: Singapore should continue diversifying its economy, focusing on sectors like electronics, ICT, and finance, which are resilient to global uncertainties.

• Trade Agreements: Strengthening free trade agreements and regional cooperation within ASEAN can help mitigate risks from protectionist policies.

• Semiconductor Leadership: Capitalizing on its role in the semiconductor supply chain to support AI and consumer electronics growth.

Diplomatic Neutrality

• Strategic Neutrality: Maintaining balanced relations with major powers like the US and China ensures Singapore remains a trusted partner amid geopolitical tensions.

• Global Advocacy: Advocating for small states through platforms like the Forum of Small States (FOSS) enhances its influence in international governance.

Security Measures

• Cybersecurity: Investing in robust cybersecurity infrastructure to counter increasing cyber warfare risks.

• Defense Capabilities: Building credible defense forces to ensure national security amidst regional instability.

Innovation and Sustainability

• Biotech and AI: Developing leadership in emerging fields like biotechnology and artificial intelligence strengthens economic competitiveness.

• Green Economy: Promoting green initiatives aligns with global decarbonization efforts while reducing reliance on volatile energy markets.

By balancing pragmatism, innovation, and diplomacy, Singapore can navigate geopolitical challenges while sustaining growth and stability.

Isolationism and protectionism are trends that are going to be on the rise. Grave concerns about the loss of jobs and possibly even an economic recession. Companies shifting supply chains towards their country

Security and small nations, regarding the risk that invasion is imminent or on the horizon. Singapore will have to bolster its security

Escalation of racist rhetoric perpetuated by Trump. Radicalisation has been on the rise with the advent of free speech.

In the long term, we need to double down in deepening our relationships with other countries, including the US. As the world turns multi polar, it is more important than ever for us to be a channel for communication. And we can only do this with trust from other countries.

Invest further on our international trade hubs status.

Upskill our workers to attract investment into Singapore. We have the minimum tariff rate slapped on us so we are more attractive to international businesses now.

We continue to work hard to brand ourselves as efficient , good governance , safe , country.

Strike win win situation / collaboration projects at government level with both US, China and other countries.

2) Continue to be neutral

3) Monitor situation closely

4) Respond intelligently, don't retaliate mindlessly

5) Rule based trade with other countries minus US

6) Continue to maintain friendly relationship with US

7) Increase trade other countries

more cdc ? For inflation ?

Individually ? How can we respond ?

Is it just wait and see , how can we prepare in the meantime ?

In difficult times we might have to watch out for each other and help each other along the way .

B: World economy and countries are progressing. Companies like Meta progress a lot, so humans feel useless when there's tech. So when jobs taken away, nervous and Govts need to show how they are strong. Eg is China trying to take over Taiwan due to it being "part of China". Tech, they feel unsecure, but with military, they feel more secure. That's why with power, they feel more protected. On US vs China, the blue workers are more respected, have protections, quite independent. So Trump tries to build a fantasy, that he's pro-crypto. Overpromised, and now in debt. That's how politicians control narrative. Another way is using AI for control.

C: People feel left behind, so they would use tariffs to show they are doing something, but its counterintuitive. Reason for Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza wars are attributed to leaders trying to act powerful.

D: Its about Nationalism. Boundaries being enforced, so countries are protecting themselves, so tariffs used. But agrees with C that its counterintuitive.

E: Same as D. For us, we are small and don't have resources, so won't have a position. But larger countries have lots of resources, so they can use tech and military to get powerful.

D: Talked abt protecting oneself first on aircraft as analogy.

E and D were saying abt FTA on SG but still tariffed. Participants also talked about Russia getting no tariff, but actually have at 10%. Went to F, where falsehoods are one of the factors, then C said about manosphere and farright threats, citing the recent ISD arrest of a farright guy.

We talked about Malaysia having 48% tariffs, and how US may do this cos of covering debt.

On US, we were not being treated kindly, so why not China instead of US? China also does things for their benefit. And in SG, we make friends with everyone, but we stand on principles, like opposing Russia on Ukraine invasion, or saying that Israel acts in Gaza is wrong. Or we support no one. We need to be careful. And allies are disappointed. Need to have some sort of fairness, to know needs and wants. And about how US is protecting their interests.