My swanky canvas by Caroline Troy

NEVADA SENATE RACE

19burkem1 — 2018-10-24 15:06:29 UTC

Incumbent: Dean Heller (Republican)
Challenger: Jacky Rosen (Democrat)

BACKGROUND OF THE STATE

19zengot — 2018-10-24 15:09:45 UTC

Population (Total):
2.998 million (people)
By gender :
50.2% male 49.8% female
By Race/ethnicity:
-74.6% (caucasian)
-9.8% (black or African American)
-1.7% (Native American)
-.8% (Hawaiian)
-4.3% (two races or more)
-26.53% identify as of Hispanic origin
Registered Voters:
1.65 million
Party Breakdown:
- Democrats: 567,767
- Republicans: 492,190
- Libertarianism: 14,322
- Independent: 65,024
- Green Party: 3,186
- Natural Law Party: 83
- Non-Partisan: 313,421
-Other: 12,678

Political Representation and Voting History

19burkem1 — 2018-10-24 15:11:32 UTC

Presidency: Nevada was once considered a swing state (although it leaned slightly to the right). During the 2000 and 2004 presidential, Nevada voters favored Bush, a republican candidate. However, in the 2008 election, citizens of Nevada elected Barack Obama, a democrat. He later earned a seven-point victory in the 2012. In the 2016 presidential election, Nevada voted democrat for Hilary Clinton once again, but only by a two point margin.
Senate: From 2001 to present, Nevada has elected one Democratic and one Republican. John Ensign (R) served from 2001-2011. Democrat Harry Reid was a senator from 1987-2017. The current senators are Dean Heller (R), who has served since 2011, and Catherine Cortez Masto (D) who was elected in 2017.
Gubernatorial: For the past 18 years, all Nevada Governors have been Republicans. In 1999, former democrat Kenny Guinn was elected after changing his political affiliation before the start of his campaign. Jim Gibbons, a Republican, succeeded Guinn in 2007. In 2011, Republican Brian Sandoval became Governor. He still serves today.

Current Governor

19troyc — 2018-10-24 15:12:26 UTC

Brian Sandoval (R)
- Serving since 2011, former district judge
- First Hispanic elected to statewide office in Nevada
- Working to make Nevada the most veteran and military-friendly state in the nation
- Working to reform public education and health care coverage, wants to reconstruct economic development

Current Senate

19troyc — 2018-10-24 15:15:20 UTC

Dean Heller (R)
- Businessman and politician
- Served in House of Representatives from 2007-2011
- Elected to Senate in 2012
- Said to Trump: "Everything you touch turns to gold"
- Claims to have passed over 100 different pieces of legislature into law that have positively impacted small businesses, Veterans, and Seniors
Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
- Attorney and politician serving as the junior US Senator for Nevada since 2017
- Went to University of Nevada and Gonzaga University
- Born in Las Vegas
- First Latina to serve on US Senate
- Campaigned for raising minimum wage, protecting Medicare, and passing comprehensive immigration reform

Current House of Representatives

19troyc — 2018-10-24 15:33:12 UTC

Dina Titus (D)
- serving since 2013
- opposing Department of Energy's effort to construct a nuclear waste
- 1st congressional district
- served in third district from 2009-2011
Mark Amodei (R)
- serving since 2011
- serving in second congressional district
- went to University of Nevada
- introduced the Northern Nevada Land Conservation and Economic Development Act
Jacky Rosen (D)
- serving since 2017
- serving for third congressional district
- endorsed by Barack Obama and Joe Biden
Ruben Kihuen (D)
- serving since 2017
- first Latino member of the House of Representatives for Nevada
- accused of sexual misconduct and is not running for reelection

Dean Heller

19zengot — 2018-10-24 15:40:52 UTC

Alma Mater: University of Southern California
Career: Businessmen
-Born and Raised in Castro Valley, CA
-Incumbent (running for reelection)
- Served in the House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011
- Former Secretary of the State of Nevada
- Heller initially opposed Donald Trump, but changed his opinion after his election
- Opposes same sex marriage, however, he voted to endorse veterans benefits and social security benefits for married gay couples
- Hopes to repeal the Affordable Care Act
Top Campaign Contributors: Station Casinos, MGM Resorts International

NONPARTISAN VOTING GUIDE

19burkem1 — 2018-10-24 15:47:39 UTC

Dean Heller (R) V. Jacky Rosen (D)

Jacky Rosen (D)

19burkem1 — 2018-10-24 15:50:40 UTC

Alma Mater: University of Minnesota
Career: Southwest Gas, later opened her own consulting firm, Won a seat in the House of Representatives against Republican Danny Tarkanian in 2016
- Challenging the incumbent
- Endorsed by Former POTUS Barack Obama and Former VPOTUS Joe Biden
- Supports the Affordable Care Act and a woman's right to choose, but has been described as a moderate
Top Campaign Contributors: Emily's List (pro-choice women's organization), Alphabet Inc.

Dean Heller Fundraising:

19troyc — 2018-11-01 17:22:26 UTC

Raised: $14,194,793
Spent: $12,196,543
Cash on Hand: $2,211,457
Debts: $0

Dean Heller's top contributors are Station Casinos, Votesane PAC, Jennmar Corp, MGM Resorts International, and Caesars International. It makes sense that his top contributors would be mainly in the entertainment business as these businesses (specifically Casinos) because the top industry in Nevada is Casinos. Additionally, the Casino and Resort industry have historically supported Republican candidates they typically support minimizing federal regulation that will impede on the industry's growth. Furthermore, he voted to pass an anti-online gambling bills to force business to these resorts.

Polling Data

19zengot — 2018-11-01 17:23:02 UTC

Chance of Winning:
Dean Heller: 5 in 9
Jacky Rosen: 4 in 9
Others: <1 in 100
Forecasted Vote Share:
Heller: 49.2%
Rosen: 48.2%
Other: 2.6%

Heller/Rosen Debate

19zengot — 2018-11-01 17:36:53 UTC

The first and only debate was held on October 19th, 2018. The debate was considered controversial because both candidates had rather gritty remarks, and made attempts to belittle one another's accomplishments. Due to the fact that both candidates had very similar poll ratings, the debate was decisive. As a result, it can be boiled down to 5 crucial points:
1. Heller advocated for Trump, and argued that a positive relationship with the president would be beneficial to the state
2. Rosen advocated for healthcare, and in turn this gave her a slight boostin her ratings.
3. Heller claimed he never used earmarks, but there was evidence he did
4. Contrasting views on gun control. Rosen had suggested stricter gun laws for Nevada, while Heller advocated for more lax legislation.
5. Heller, as an incumbent, was able to get the upper hand through credit claiming. Rosen did not have this advantage.

Jacky Rosen Fundraising:

19troyc — 2018-11-01 17:41:29 UTC

Raised: $21,247,237
Spent: $20,493,644
Cash on hand: $768,851
Debt: $15,000

Jacky Rosen's top contributors are EMILY's List, Alphabet Inc, and The University of California. Emily's List is a women's organization which consistently supports pro-choice, female candidates like Rosen. Additionally, Rosen's campaign received numerous small individual donations (>$200), most likely from young people and supportive liberals across the country, which contributed to 32% of her total fundraising. The support of large institutions, specifically the University of California, can be explained by the democratic emphasis on public education and the large proportion of liberals who are employed/enrolled within the UC system.

Who Won?

19troyc — 2018-11-07 18:06:17 UTC

JACKY ROSEN!

We did not predict Jacky Rosen would win, particularly due to the polling data (seen above), lack of name recognition and ability to credit-claim, and her opponent being an incumbent. That being said, the raise was fairly close at Jacky Rosen gaining 50.4% of votes and Dean Heller gaining 45.4%.
One of the reasons that could have swayed the result is that for the past few years Nevada has been experiencing a leftward tilt after the 2016 election and Trump's presidency. Additionally, there has been a growing discontent with the Republican Party nationwide. This is supported by the 62% of first-time midterm election voters nationally who voted as a Democrat. Much of the discontent with the Republican party has come from issues with human rights, for instance, the Brett Kavanaugh case. This unhappiness with the Republican Party not only would push Rosen forward but also aligns with Rosen's pro-choice position and close relation with women's rights organizations (Emily's List). Nevada has also had a leftward tilt in recent years and Democrats have won the last three presidential elections for the state. Heller used this tilt, as well as her Republicans opponents support for Trump, to gain support for her position and the Democratic party.
Furthermore, Rosen raised and spent a significant amount larger in fundraising than Dean Heller, enhancing her campaign. Rosen raised $21,247,237 and spent $20,493,644 while Heller raised $14,194,793 and spent $12,196,543. In addition, the incumbency advantage has seem to become less and less important in voters addition, leading to a possible disadvantage for Dean Heller that we did not predict. It was also noted that Jacky Rosen appealed to the large immigrant and Latino communities in Nevada through her vow to stand up to Trump's immigration policies.

Results

19burkem1 — 2018-11-12 23:38:07 UTC

Jacky Rosen (D): 50.4%

Dean Heller* (R): 45.5%

Other Candidates (combined Barry Michaels, Tim Hagan, and Kamau Bakari): 2.6%

Our Prediction

19burkem1 — 2018-11-12 23:42:15 UTC

Dean Heller (Incumbent)

Based on our research in the Nevada Senate race, we have come to the conclusion that Dean Heller is more likely to win back his senate seat than be unseated by challenger, Jacky Rosen. As an incumbent, Heller has both the advantage of experience in the Senate and can enact the typical credit claiming as an advantage of incumbency. Specifically, around the Las Vegas area, which is traditionally Democratic, he may use his vehement defense of a bill that bans online gambling as a technique to demonstrate his support for the livelihood of many residents in that area. He is able to present the work that he has done in office while Jacky Rosen is unable to present any real experience that would suggest exposure to real senatorial procedures. Furthermore, Heller has consistently maintained a lead in the polls since October 10th, and currently leads by 2 points as Election Day fast approaches. Heller and Rosen have 46.5 and 44.5 points, respectively. Although Nevada is considered a swing state, it has voted a number of republicans into office, and their current governor- Brian Sandoval- is a republican. In addition to the state’s support to republicanism, Heller supports Donald Trump, which gives him may give him an upper hand in the state, despite the slim margin by which they voted for Clinton in the 2016 election.

Media Coverage:

19burkem1 — 2018-11-12 23:51:20 UTC

The media has consistently covered this race as one of the most important in the 2018 midterm election. Up until election night, polls showed a deadlock between Republican Dean Heller and his Democratic Challenger Jacky Rosen, with the majority vacillating between candidates almost daily. However, most news outlets designated Heller as the "most vulnerable senator facing re-election," based on polling data and the voting history of the state of Nevada. Many newspapers were quick to write negatively about Heller's ties to Trump and Rosen's exorbitant fundraising and campaign spending. However, due to the contentious remarks from both sides, the media has simply reiterated the belittlement from both candidates. Both conservative news sources (like Fox News) and liberal ones (like NPR) have taken a non-biased approach to the coverage. The media deemed certain aspects of their platforms as "centerpieces" within the race:
The Affordable Care Act: Rosen is a staunch advocate, whereas Heller, like President Trump, does not support its adoption.
The Trump Factor: As Heller accepted his connection with the President more comfortably in this election, he held rallies far from metropolis and minority-populous Clark County, which appealed to the whiter, rural Republican vote (a group that is almost predominantly in favor of Trump and has an unusually high voter turnout rate). Rosen is clear on her negative view of President Trump but vows to work across the aisle with Republicans in the senate.
Gun Control: After the Vegas Massacre, many urban voters support especially stringent gun laws that are consistent with Rosen's views. However, rural republicans, who inhabit, geographically, the vast majority of Nevada, are in favor of the lax approach Heller has taken to US gun laws.

Works Cited

19burkem1 — 2018-11-13 00:02:59 UTC

Bolton, Alexander, and Michael Burke. “Five Takeaways from Testy
Heller-Rosen Debate in Nevada.” TheHill, The Hill, 20 Oct. 2018

CIA. “The World Factbook: UNITED STATES.” Central Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, 23 Oct. 2018

“Dean Heller for US Senate.” Dean Heller for US Senate.

“Jacky Rosen for Senate.” Jacky Rosen for Senate.

Nevada. “Nevada Secretary of State.” Nevada Secretary of State : Limited & Limited-Liability Partnerships, 2018

Schallhorn, Kaitlyn. “Nevada Senate Race between Heller, Rosen Is One Democrats Hope to Flip: A Look at the Candidates.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 20 Sept. 2018.

Skelley, Geoffrey. “Final Senate Update: The 13 Races We're Watching.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 5 Nov. 2018.