Civil Conflict by charlotte

Mexico

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-22 20:13:53 UTC

In 2006, the president at the time, Felipe Calderon, launched a militarised crackdown on the drug cartels taking over mexico, deploying 6,500 Mexican soldiers to his hometown Michoacan to battle the drug traffickers. This is seen as the initial starting point to Mexico's 'Drug War' (Vice, 2015).

Syria

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-22 20:14:00 UTC

The deaths caused by Mexico's drug war make it the second deadliest conflict in the world, after the one in Syria (KTLA5, 2017).

Civil Conflicts

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-23 16:42:43 UTC

A civil conflict can be defined as a war between parties, factions, or inhabitants of different regions within the same nation.

Civil conflicts, or even the threat of a civil conflict, cause cause tourists to alter their travel behaviour (Hall and O'Sullivan, 1996).

Event Classification

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-24 17:16:57 UTC

An ongoing war which started in 2006 between the Mexican government and drug cartels.

45,000 troops currently involved in governmental operations with the primary focus of dismantling drug cartels as a whole rather than preventing drug trafficking (McCune and Kania, 2012).

As well as fighting with the government, the cartels are often caught up in violence between one another and there has currently been around 60,000 deaths (CNN, 2018).

Impacts at Destination Level

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-24 17:17:11 UTC

Many serious impacts have been caused by the drug war in Mexico which has also affected the public who aren't involved in any of the fighting.

Including:

- Police and government corruption
- Increased number of deaths
- Human rights
- Police brutality
- Public health - an increase in injected drug users and STI's

Preparedness

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-24 17:17:35 UTC

Mexico has the second highest degree of economic disparity between the extremely poor and the extremely rich among all of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries (OECD, 2011).

Because of this, the lower class are more likely to turn to joining criminal gangs to earn money through drug trafficking.

The government began the war between themselves and the cartels so they had to prepare for the backlash from the cartels and the violence it will cause, however many see Operation Michoacan as an example of policy failure as the violence and number of deaths is increasing each year (Vice, 2015).

Lessons learnt

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-24 17:18:18 UTC

The government is making a conscious effort to protect the cities in Mexico heavily dominated by tourism, such as Cancun and Los Cabos by trying to ensure the violence and fighting is kept out of these areas.

However, some cities, such as Tijuana which was once named 'pre-Vegas' for its casinos and resorts, has seen a decline in tourism numbers due to the amount of violence which goes on in the streets. Between 2007-2009, there were daily shootings/killings, which has influenced and changed tourists behaviour as less people are visiting this city out of fear (Tiainen, 2014).

South Sudan

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-25 16:57:46 UTC

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-25 18:12:35 UTC

Police Corruption

The start...

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-26 19:01:09 UTC

An on going crisis started back up again in December 2011, when South Sudan gained independence. The conflict in South Sudan is the longest running conflict in Africa ( REF )

The President accused the ex Former Vice Present of attempting a Coup d'etat.

President, Salva Kiir - SPLM.
Ex Former Vice President, Riek Machar - SPLM-IO.

Coup d'etat is when a sudden violent overthrow of an existing governemnt by a small group (Coup d'etat, 2014).
The President remains in charge of the National Army and a group called Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ex Vice President is now the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In-Opposition (SPLM-IO) with a coalition of military commanders (Lotje de Vries & Mareike Schomerus, 2017).
The President, an ethnic Dinka and the ex Vice President, an ethnic Nuer, are pulling their ethnic identities and their communities into their personal feud (Carlo Koos & Thea Gutschke. 2014).

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-26 19:32:45 UTC

Red - Under control of the Government of South Sudan (Salva Kiir).
Green - Under control of the SPLM - In - Opposition (Riek Machar).
Blue - Under control of the Government of Sudan.

_{^{Copyright -}}_{^{CC BY-SA 4.0}}

References

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-26 20:00:07 UTC

Amy
- Australian National University (2017) Australia must prepare tourist operators for terror [Online]. Available from:{https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/department-news/11231/australia-must-prepare-tourist-operators-terror} [Accessed 06.03.2018].
-Australia's Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism (2017) (Online report). Available from: [Accessed 01.03.2018].
-Australian National Security (n.d.) National Terrorism Threat Advisory System (Online). Available from:[Accessed 28.02.2018].
- Carlo Koos & Thea Gutschke (2014) South Sudan's Newest War: When Two Old Men Divide a Nation (Online). GIGA Focus. Available from:[Accessed 26.02.2018].
- Clayton Hazvinel Vhumbunu (2016) Conflict Resurgence and the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (Online). Available from:[Accessed 27.02.2018}.

-Encyclopaedia Britannica (2014) Coup d'état (Online). Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. Available from:[Accessed 26.02.2018].

- Fortune of Africa (2016) Tourism sector profile in South Sudan [Online]. Available from:<http://fortuneofafrica.com/southsudan/tourism-sector-profile-in-south-sudan/>[Accessed 08.03.2018].

-GOV (2018) Foreign travel advice - South Sudan [Online]. Available from:[Accessed 28.02.2018].

-ITV News (2017) The cost of the war in South Sudan [Online video], 07.02.2017.
Available from:[Accessed 28.02.2018].
-Lotje de Vries & Mareike Schomerus (2017) South Sudan's Civil War Will Not

End with a Peace Deal, Peace Review [Online], 29:3, 333-340. Available from:[Accessed 27.02.2018].
- Mery Corps (2017) Quick facts: what you need to know about the South Sudan Crisis [Online]. Available from: [Accessed 28.02.2018].
-National Guidelines for Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Terrorism (2015) Australia- New Zealand Counter-Terrorism Committee [Online Report]. Available from: [Accessed 01.03.2018].
-Onditi, Francis (2017) The Power-Sharing Enignma in South Sudan: Governance and Policy Advice to President Salva Kiir and Dr.Riek Machar. Journal of International & Global Studies, Vol. 8, Issue 2, April, pp 1-17.
-Refugees and Asylum Seekers from South Sudan (2018) [Online image]. Available from:[Accessed 01.03
- Sudarsan Raghavan (2013) The Washington Post [Online]. Available from: [Accessed 28.02.2018}.
-South Sudan Development Plan (2013) Realising freedom, equality, justice, peace and prosperity for all [Online report]. Available from: [Accessed 01.03.2018].
- Tourism Australia (2018) International Visitor Arrivals [Online]. Available from:<http://www.tourism.australia.com/en/markets-and-research/tourism-statistics/international-visitor-arrivals.html> [Accessed 06.03.2018].

-Times (2014) A Teenage Terrorism Suspect Is Shot Dead in Australia After Attacking Police. [Online]. Available from:<http://time.com/3423975/isis-australia-melbourne-police-terrorism-suspect-abdul-numan-haider/> [Accessed 28.02.2018].
-UNHCR (2018) South Sudan Situation [Online] Available from:<http://data.unhcr.org/SouthSudan/regional.php> [Accessed 01.03.2018].

Charlotte

Beittel, J. (2017) Mexico: Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking Organizations [Online]. Available from: <https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41576.pdf> Accessed [28/02/2018].

Beletsky, L., Martizez, G., Gaines, T., Nguyen, L., Lozada, R., Rangel, G., Vera, A., McCauley, HL., Sorensen, A., Strahdee, SA. (2012) Mexico's Northern Border Conflict: Collateral Damage to Health and Human Rights of Vulnerable Groups. Department of Medicine, University of California. 31 (5) pp.403-410.

Bowden, C. (2011) Murder City: Ciudad Juárez and the Global Economy's New Killing Fields. First Nation Books.

Brouwer, K., Case, P., Ramos, R., Magis-Rodriquez, C., Bucardo, J., Patterson, T., Strathdee, S. (2009) Trends in Production, Trafficking and Consumption of Methamphetamine and Cocaine in Mexico. Substance Use and Misuse, 41 (5) 707-727

Burton, F. (2007) Mexico: The Price of Peace in the Cartel Wars. Stratfor Global Intelligence. Accessed [28/02/2018].

Carl, T. (2009) Progress in Mexico Drug War is Drenched in Blood. INSI. Associated Press. Accessed [28/02/2018].

CNN (2018) “Mexico Drug War” Fast Facts [Online]. Available from: <https://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/02/world/americas/mexico-drug-war-fast-facts/index.html> Accessed [26/02/2018].

Hall, C. M., & O’Sullivan, V. (1996). Tourism, political stability and violence. Tourism, crime and international security issues, 105-121.

Khan, C. (2017) Number Of Journalists Killed In Mexico Reaches 'Historical High,' Report Says [Online]. Available from: <https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/12/22/572822696/number-of-journalists-killed-in-mexico-reaches-historical-high-report-says> Accessed [26/02/2018].

KTLA5 (2017) 23,000 Killed During Mexico’s Drug Wars in 2016, Making It Second Deadliest Conflict in the World [Online]. Available from: <http://ktla.com/2017/05/09/23000-killed-during-mexicos-drug-wars-in-2016-making-it-second-deadliest-conflict-in-the-world-after-syria/> Accessed [26/02/2018].

McCune, J., Kania, E. (2012) The War on Mexican Cartels: Options for U.S. and Mexican Policy-Makers. Institute of Politics, p.10

Murataya, R. (2013) The Relationship Between Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations and Corruption in the Mexican Criminal Justice and Political Systems: A Review Essay. International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, 37, (4) pp.341-358.

OECD (2011) Society at a Glance: Income Inequality [Online]. Available from: <http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/soc_glance-2011-en/06/01/index.html?contentType=&itemId=/content/chapter/soc_glance-2011-16-en&containerItemId=/content/serial/19991290&accessItemIds=/content/book/soc_glance-2011-en&mimeType=text/html> Accessed [28/02/2018].

Tiainen, J. (2014) Drug War affecting Tourism in Mexico: Case of Tijuana and Acapulco [Online]. Available from: Accessed [28/02/2018].

Vice (2015) Where Mexico’s Drug War Was Born: A Timeline of the Security Crisis in Michoacan [Online]. Available from: <https://news.vice.com/article/where-mexicos-drug-war-was-born-a-timeline-of-the-security-crisis-in-michoacan> Accessed [26/02/2018].
Aljazeera (2018) Syria’s Civil War Explained From the Beginning [Online]. Available from: <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syria-civil-war-explained-160505084119966.html> Accessed [28/02/2018].

BBC (2018) Why is There a War in Syria? [Online]. Available from: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35806229> Accessed [28/02/2018].

CNN (2018) Syrian Civil War Fast Facts [Online]. Available from: <https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war-fast-facts/index.html> Accessed [28/02/2018].

Lonely Planet (2017) Syria [Online]. Available from: <https://www.lonelyplanet.com/syria> Accessed [28/02/2018].

The World Bank (2017) The Toll of War The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict in Syria [Online]. Available from: Accessed [28/02/2017].

FOR FEEDBACK

Katie
Becker, K., 2014. Islam and Business: Cross-Cultural and Cross-National Perspectives, London: Routledge.

Economist, 2013. Can they be lured back? The Economist.

Hudman, L.E. & Jackson, R.H., 2003. Geography of Travel & Tourism, London: Cengage Learning.

Johnson, A., 2006. Lebanon hopes for stability so tourism industry can rebound. Houston Chronicle.

Martelino, J. et al., 1995. Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon, Washongton D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Ministry of Tourism, 2011a. Destination Lebanon – Home. destinationlebanon.gov.lb.

Ministry of Tourism, 2011b. Ministry of Tourism – About Lebanon. Lebanon ministry of tourism.

Neto, F.V. da S. & Harb, J., 2010. Impacts of Wars and Terrorism on Tourism in Lebanon. Modul Vienna University.

Sherwood, S. & Williams, G., 2009. The 44 Places to Go in 2009 – Interactive Graphic. The New York Times.

Turner, R., 2015. Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact 2015, Lebanon. World Travel & Tourism Council.

Al- Akhbar, 2015, “Lebanese civil war still raging in the hearts and minds of the people” http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/22127

GOV, 2017 “Foreign travel advice, Lebanon” https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/lebanon

The world bank. 2013 “Supporting Lebanon’s efforts to rebuild infrastructure and alleviate the impacts of conflict on municipalities” http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/06/03/supporting-lebanon-efforts-to-rebuild-infrastructure-and-alleviate-the-impacts-of-conflict-on-municipalities

Ali Unlu, Naim Kapucu, Bahadir Sahin, 2018, “Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, Disaster and crisis management in Turkey: a need for a unified crisis management system” http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/09653561011037977

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION, 2016 “The day after” “Turkeys recovery following the failed coop attempt.” ISBN: 978-605-5984-82-3 http://www.ikv.org.tr/images/files/The%20Day%20After.pdf

Financiel times, 2017 “Tourists return to turkey after Russian ban and terror attacks” https://www.ft.com/content/340b5762-5c0d-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b

Now this is world, 2015 “Why Does Turkey Hate Its President?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O62zwI-UQcs

Daily news, 2018 “ Turkish tourism will see full recovery in 2018: Culture Minister Kurtulmuş” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-tourism-will-see-full-recovery-in-2018-minister-125034

Jake
BBC News, 2017. [Online]. Available from: [Accessed 27 February 2018].

Chiara Palazzo, E. A., 2017. Manchester Terror Attack: Everything we know. [Online]

Available from: [Accessed 28 February 2018].

Jonathan Berr (2017) Manchester bombing could hurt U.K. tourism [Online]. Available from:<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manchester-bombing-uk-tourism/>[Accessed 11.03.2018].

Durando, J., 2016. After Orlando shooting, Muslim Americans show support for victims. [Online]. Available from: [Accessed 28 February 2018].

Garunay, M., 2016. President Obama on the Tragic Shooting in Orlando. [Online]

Available from: [Accessed 28 February 2018].

Harris, L. T., n.d. Londons preparedness to respond to a major terrorist incident. [Online]. Available from:[Accessed 28 February 2018].

McLaughlin, M., 2016. Thats what triggered it: Orlando Nightclub shooter revealed motive to police negotiator. [Online]. Available from:[Accessed 28 February 2018].

National Counter Terrorism Security Office, 2017. Manchester Arena incident. [Online]. Available at:[Accessed 28 February 2018].

Ralph Ellis, A. F. F. K. E. M., 2016. Orlando shooting: 49 killed, shooter pledged ISIS allegiance. [Online] Available from:

[Accessed 27 February 2018].

https://theconversation.com/terrorism-and-tourism-what-cities-should-do-to-prepare-for-an-attack-60975

http://www.travelweekly.com/North-America-Travel/Insights/Orlando-tourism-comes-to-grips-with-attack-at-nightclub

https://www.ft.com/content/1144b2f2-567f-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

https://ilovemanchester.com/2017/10/12/greater-manchesters-tourism-boom-shows-no-signs-slowing.aspx

The Impacts

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-27 14:26:26 UTC

- In the first few days of fighting after South Sudan become an idependant, 300 people were wounded _{(Humanitarian Country Team, 2013).}
-2.1 million people have been forced to flee their homes and they have crossed into neighboring coutries including:-
-Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (Mery Corps, 2017).
- 70,000 people that are seeking shelter _{(Humanitarian Country Team, 2013).}

Faulkner's Conceptual Framework for Crisis Management (2001)

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-27 15:10:43 UTC

Pre-Event Phase - _{(When action can be taken to prevent or mitigte the effects of potential disasters)}
-No plan in place to stop or prevent any type of civil conflict.
Prodromal Phase- _{^{(When it is apparent that a disaster is imminet)}}
2013 -The British Government annouced that is was evacuating some of its embasy staff members and their families _{^{(Sudarsan Raghavan, 2013).}}
2013 - An ammonomous spokes person from the US Embassy offical in Juba, says nonessential embassy staff and other American citizens had been evacuated from Juba _{^{(Sudarsan Raghavan, 2013).}}- Tourist who remain in the within the country can subscribe to email alerts for updates and follow the Foreign Travel Advice Facbook page and Twitter page for travel advice _{^{(Gov, 2018).}}
Emergency Phase-_{^{(The effect of the disaster is felt and action is neccessary to protect people and property)}} -Emergency shelter - Tents (Video)

Immediate Recovery- _{^{(Short term needs of people have been met and the main focus of activity is to restore services and the community norm)}}-Emergency shelter - Tents (Video)
Long -Term Recovery- _{^{(Continuing with phase above, however items that could not be attended to quickly will now happen at this stage)}}
(South Sudan's Development Plan, 2013)
-This report has listed ovbjectivites they want to acheive.
DDR - Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration programme is to transform strategies for all organised forces and to provide the host community with a sustainable future and also to reintegrate woman and children.
A power sharing agreement was signed on the 26th August 2015 in Juba, the capital of South Sudan.
The agreement was put in place to end the deadly civil war and to improve "more than 4.1 million people were in critical need of water, sanitation and hygiene services" _{^{(Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu, 2016).}}On these grounds the ARCSS was negotiated and signed by both governing partys ₍_{^{Claton Hazvinei Vhumbuna, 2016).}}ARCSS - Agreement on the Resoultion of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan.
Resoultion (Destination Level)- _{^{(Routine restored and or new and improved destination)}}-Peace Agreement didnt last long as the flighting between both governing parties have started again and it is like that till this day.
-Currently there is no plan in place to end the civil war.

Different Types

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-27 17:46:02 UTC

According to Hall and Sullivan, different types of civil conflict include violent protests, social unrest, civil war, terrorism, the perceived violation of human rights (Hall and O'Sullivan, 1996).

Terrorism

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 09:29:02 UTC

Terrorism is an action or threat designed to influence the government or intimidate the public. Its purpose is to advance a political, religious or ideological cause (educate against hate, n.d).

Terrorism impacts

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 10:36:52 UTC

Direct: immediately affect tourism establishments by causing physical damage; injury or deaths to employees or customers.
Indirect/Secondary: result from media coverage and other forms of inaccurate information that maybe attributed to only a small geographic region or be completely inaccurate altogether; reduced travel to the area; loss of tourism confidence.

Response

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 14:03:49 UTC

9/11 has caused stricter border control into America which has decreased the cocaine export rate into the states (Brouwer et al., 2009).

Since 1982, law enforcement has been reorganised 5 times in an attempt to reduce violence caused by the cartels and there have been four special elite forces, however Operation Michoacan was the initial start to fighting against the cartels (Brouewer et al., 2009)

Timeline of important events (CNN,2018):

2006: Operation Michoacan.

2007: Calderon spread out over 20,000 soldiers across Mexico following the backlash from the beginning of the drug war.

2007: The president fired 284 police commanders in an attempt to drive out police corruption.

2009: The government seized 29,384 firearms - with around 70% being traced back to the US.

2014: Current president Enrique Pena Nieto successfully arrested Joaquin Guzman (El Chapo), the leader of the Sinaloa cartel who has escaped from prison twice before.

2016: A cross border raid by US and Mexico law enforcement arresting 24 Sinaloa cartel members as well as discovering weapons and hundreds of pounds of cocaine, opium and marijuana.

As well as these, the Mexican and US government have arrested or killed hundreds of gang leaders and members, and drug traffickers over the past 12-13 years.

Recovery

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 14:03:54 UTC

The drug war is an ongoing civil conflict with no real system in place by the government to combat the issue, as they are the starting point, however in 2012, Calderon defended his actions and began criticising America for providing the cartels access to weapons and firearms (Beittel, 2017).

United Kingdom

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 14:07:56 UTC

On 22nd May 2017 Salman Abedi detonated a home-made bomb in the arena's foyer as crowds were leaving (BBC News, 2017).
Twenty-two people died during the suicide bombing.
More than 240 emergency calls were made; 60 ambulances and 400 police officers attended (BBC News, 2017).

America

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 14:08:19 UTC

On June 12th 2016, Omar Mateen who was an American born man who had pledged allegiance to ISIS shot and killed 49 people in a popular gay Florida nightclub. Which was the most deadliest shooting in Americas history, and the worst terror attack since 9/11. The attack has been applauded by ISIS and is seen as an act of hate (Ralph Ellis, 2016).
The attack was a protest against U.S. bombings of Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria, specifically the bombing and killing ISIS commander Abu Wahbi a few weeks earlier. The gunman spoke to police negotiators stating that "You have to tell the U.S. government to stop bombing. They are killing too many children. They are killing too many women, okay" (McLaughlin, 2016).

The facts

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 15:41:18 UTC

- Lebanese civil war was from 1975-1990
Relatively small population
GOV advice suggests that there can be parts of Lebanon were the security can deteriorate very quickly and British government may not be able to help.
Has a lot of historic sights to visit
Relies heavily on Tourism

Event classification

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:45:24 UTC

The civil war began as a 'peaceful uprising' against the president Bashar al-Assad in 2011 over high unemployment rates, corruption and a lack of political freedom.

This over the years has escalated into the longest ever running civil war and has left over 340,000 people dead, including 103,000 civilians.

The war has drawn attention from other countries such as Iran, Iraq, the Gulf States, and US and has caused political tension and unrest between some of these (BBC, 2018).

Impacts

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:45:58 UTC

The most deadliest civil war in history and the largest refugee crisis since World War II (The World Bank, 2017).

The documented number of deaths isn't including the nearly 57,000 people either missing or presumed dead.

6.3 million Syrians have been displaced internally and over 5 million have fled, mainly to Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan, however some venture into Europe to seek refuge (Aljazeera, 2018).

Damage to infrastructure including schools, houses, hospitals and roads has caused other issues, including (The World Bank, 2018):
- debris
- more unemployment
- increases in health issues yet a lack of healthcare professionals

ISIS - Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - is a group formed of rebels who wanted to form a new group due to an inner disagreement with the purpose of fighting Al-Qaeda, other rebels and Kurds. This however began fights with other countries such as the US and ISIS has become known worldwide for committing 143 attacks and acts of extremism in 29 different countries which as a result has killed 2,043 people (CNN, 2018).

Preparedness

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:46:14 UTC

The government responded to the initial protest in 2011 by sending out security forces, resulting in the death of dozens of people (CNN, 2018).
The president then tried to amend what happened by announcing several plans and addressing the nation with a 45 minute long televised speech.
In late 2011, Assad took away the right to peaceful protest - seen as a basic human right - which is effectively seen as the start of the civil war (BBC, 2018).

Response

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:46:40 UTC

Organisations such as the Arab League and the European Union have frequently shown their disapproval by taking action such as banning the import of Syrian oil in 2011, and sanctioning against Syria due to the governments actions towards civilians (CNN, 2018).
The US also showed disapproval at the start of the war by imposing sanctions against government officials - including the president - and in 2012 closed their embassy in Damascus.
2012 - the United Nations General Assembly passed a nonbinding resolution planning for Assad to step down however this was never put into place (CNN, 2018).

Recovery

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:46:47 UTC

UN estimates it will cos 3.5 billion dollars to help the millions of people in need of some kind of humanitarian assistance, with almost 70% of the Syrian population living in extreme poverty and 6 million facing food or water shortages (BBC, 2018).

It was decided that the only possible end to the conflict will be a political solution, and the UN have held peace talks, dating back to 2014 with the most recent being in January 2018, discussing reform ideas and free, fair elections.

However, little progress has been made as Assad has shown an unwillingness to negotiate with the other parties involved, however it is clear he should be the one to step down (CNN, 2018).

Currently, Syria's government has regained control of bigger cities, although large areas are still controlled by rebel groups (BBC, 2018).

Syria compared to Mexico

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 15:48:40 UTC

Both countries are similar as they are both caught up in an ongoing conflict between the government and retaliating groups and both conflicts have been caused by a government reaction. Both also have an extremely high death toll and are very dangerous.

However, Syria has an outline of a plan set into place by the UN who have stepped in to help, to try and end the deadly conflict and the issues it is causing, where as mexico does not as the issue isn't their government, as Syria's is.

Australia - Terrorism

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 16:00:49 UTC

Lebanon

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:05:07 UTC

Causes

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:05:49 UTC

Lebanese society had too many different religious fractions which did not agree on how political influence was administered and how the country should be ruled.

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:14:06 UTC

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:20:56 UTC

Impacts

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:21:56 UTC

Poor infrastructure from the war
Limited services
no cleanup plan nor rebuilding plans
Political unrest and constant upsurge of violence hindered the regular growth and expansion of the tourism industry (Neto & Harb 2010).
This lead to tourism being negatively affected.
People stopped visiting lebanon

Factors influencing the decline of tourism in Lebanon

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:30:34 UTC

The Civil War destroyed the Lebanese infrastructure and since Lebanon’s economy was so much connected to the tourism sector, it was immensely impacted. By the end of the civil war, only 180,00 tourists visited Lebanon as compared to 2.4 million visitors before the war.
No. of tourists visited Lebanon before and after the civil war.

(Source: Ministry of Tourism 2011b)

Recovery

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 16:37:50 UTC

Lessons from previous incidents have demonstrated the benefits of early consideration of the recovery phase. Therefore, whilst simultaneously supporting the response efforts, Manchester City Council and in discussion with government departments (DCLG) began to implement the recovery arrangements set out within the GM Strategic Recovery Guidance (Manchester City Council, 2017).

Post-attack occupancy rates and values struggled however the latest August figures show signs of recovery and is tracking in line with 2016 even with increased hotel supply compared to twelve months ago, meaning that demand is actually higher than last year (King, 2017).
If the region maintains that level of growth, the tourism sector will exceed its 2020 target value of £8.8 billion a year ahead of schedule (King, 2017).

Local Terrorist Prepardness Plan

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 16:38:26 UTC

After terror attacks, documents about terrorist attacks have been released by U.S. Representative Robert Pittenger who is Chairman of the Congressional Taskforce on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare. The documents are there help people be prepared for terrorist attacks (Chiara Palazzo, 2017).
Since the 9/11 terror attacks expert planning done on the American governments part, and has used state and federal officials and have a nationally recognized plan in place to help protect American citizens swell as others world wide (Chiara Palazzo, 2017).
The documents help show a variety of ways terror attack can happen for example: explosions, cyber attacks, chemical threats and nuclear blasts. This document informs people how to stay safe during these events. For example during an explosion they advise you have family details ready to hand, bedding and clothing, a family evacuation plan and to know your community warning signal as well as your communities evacuation routes (Pittenger, n.d).

Response

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:40:07 UTC

Government began to rebuild the infrastructure.
With tourists numbers climbing by some 30% annually, Lebanon broke the one million visitors mark in 2003 for the first time in decades; the boom being fuelled largely by wealthy oil-rich Gulf nationals who began choosing Beirut over their favourite European or American vacation spots.
2005 - 1 million visitor mark

Recovery

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 16:42:10 UTC

Launched various programmes to promote the destination. - the government launched various programs like ‘Launching 50 days’ campaign in Lebanon as a holiday destination. In 2013, the government even gave 50% discount on airfares and hotels (Economist 2013). At the moment, it might take the end of the civil war in Syria for Lebanon to entice international tourists. Due to the Syrian War, tourism in Lebanon at present account to 7% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Turner 2015). The end of the War is expected to push tourism in the future.
The government of Lebanon prioritized rebuilding the country’s economy through a major National Emergency Reconstruction Program which focused primarily on regional infrastructure
Restored infrastructure
The Lebanon government has been undertaking intensive marketing strategies, crisis management strategies and educational programs to boost its tourism industry. (The world bank, 2013)

Turkey

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:20:39 UTC

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:21:34 UTC

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:22:25 UTC

The facts

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:23:06 UTC

Turkey is a middle eastern country
Population of 79 million
On the 15th july 2015 there was an attempted military coop

Causes

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:40:31 UTC

The Turkish coop was carried out by a part of the Turkish Armed Forces that organized themselves as the Peace at Home Council. They attempted to seize control of several key places
The government accused the coup leaders of being linked to the Gülen movement, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the Republic of Turkey
Reason for the failed coop was to overthrow the Turkish leader as he is not seen in a good light - he is seen as unethical. (Now this is world, 2015)

Impacts

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 17:40:43 UTC

Over 300 people killed
2000+ injured
40,000 arrests
infrastructure affected
Job loses in the educational sector
The tourism crisis shaved nearly 1 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The number of visitors to Turkey plummeted nearly a third in 2016 to about 25m — the lowest in nine years.

Response

j_hall4556 — 2018-02-28 18:09:47 UTC

UK threat level to the highest possible rating, meaning another terrorist atrocity is expected imminently. Almost 1,000 troops have been deployed to key locations, five people have been arrested in an investigation to the man.
British authorities step up security at airports and popular attractions including the Tower of London, Buckingham Palace and Parliament (CBS, 2017).
Operation Temperer is the government plan to put up to a further 3,800 soldiers on the streets in response to the major terrorist threat. It was devised in 2015 and had been a secret until it was accidentally leaked to a newspaper.
The government released advice on how to be prepared for a terrorist attack, how to stay safe and what to keep an eyelet for. For businesses they have release information of how to search your building during a potential bomb threat as well as evacuation processes for the company (National Counter Terrorism Security Office, 2017).
Bookings to the British capital also fell 3.5 per cent in the week after the Manchester bombing. London accounts for 85 per cent of all international travel to the UK (Ahmed, 2017).

Faulkner's Conceptual Framework for Crisis Management (2001)

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 18:35:32 UTC

National Counter-Terrorism Plan (2017).
Pre-Event Phase - _{(When an action can be taken to prevent or mitigate the effects of potential disasters)}

National Security Hotline - 1800123400.

The public is advised to report any suspicious incidents to the hotline.
Australian Border Force - is responsible for Australia's customs and border protection activities. They work closely with other government and international agencies to monitor, assess, detect and prevent the illegal movement of people and goods across Australia's border (National Counter-Terrorism Plan, 2017). The ABF also monitors the entry and exit of vessels, aircafts, goods and people (National Counter-Terrorism Plan, 2017).
The Australian Governments works with the private sector to protect crowded places (shopping centre, stadiums etc) (National Counter-Terrorism Plan, 2017). The National Counter-Terrorism Plan from 2017 states that the law enforcement and intelligence agencies are well-equipped to detect and disrupt plots, they have a strong history of stopping terrorist attacks. Australia's Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism is based on strong trusted partnerships between all levels of government and those responsible for crowded places (Australia's Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism, 2017). The Australian government generates confidence to the public that they are able to respond to any terrorist act, threat or activity (Australia's Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism, 2017). They also ensure that public information promotes harmony and discourages all forms of hatred and violent extremism (Australia's Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism, 2017).
State and Territory Governments and a number of private institutions/organisations conduct crisis and consequence training (National Guidelines for Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Terrorism, 2015). Prodromal Phase- _{^{(When it is apparent that a disaster is imminent)}}

National Security Hotline - 1800123400.

The public is advised to report any suspicious incidents to the hotline.

Where an incident or act is suspected to be terrorism-related, the police agencies exercise overall command and control of the response and the Australian Government agencies will support State and Territory governments (National Guidelines for Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Terrorism, 2015).

-If the State or Territory judges that an incident is/may be terrorism-related, it will contact the Australian Government Crisis Coordination Centre, ASIO and AFP.

Emergency Phase-_{^{(The effect of the disaster is felt and action is necessary to protect people and property)}}

Respond by trying to prevent or minimise loss of life, injury, damage to property and damage to disruption to infrastructure
Ensure that people affected by the threat or act are given immediate relief and support

(National Guidelines for Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Terrorism, 2015)

Immediate Recovery- _{^{(Short-term needs of people have been met and the main focus of activity is to restore services and the community norm)}}Goals of the National Guidelines for Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Terrorism are:-

The establishment of essential services
Delivery of psycho-social and health support
Reconstruction of physical infrastructure

Long-Term Recovery- _{^{(Continuing with phase above, however items that could not be attended to quickly will now happen at this stage)}}

Restore the public confidence
Reconstruction of physical infrastructure
Restoration of the economic and natural environments.

Resolution (Destination Level)- _{^{(Routine restored and or new and improved destination)}}From the steps taken in the other phases, this ensures the resolution on a destination level.

Response

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 19:01:20 UTC

Turkish Crisis management plans are in place, the Prime Ministry Crisis Management Center is responsible for nation-wide coordination of organizations and resources.
Receiving information from domestic and international sources, making political decisions or changing the National Security documents regarding the crisis.
Making decisions for solving crisis-related problems and having them implemented.
Deciding on the activation of crisis centers in the Turkish armed forces, ministries, public agencies, provinces, districts, or in a regions
Providing coordination and collaboration among responsible organizations.
Recommending the declaration of emergency law, martial law, preparation for war.
Authorizing Crisis Evaluation and Watch Committee for needed services and activities.

State of emergency was declared for 3 months.
Institutions and organizations found to be linked to the Gülen organization have been shut down on the basis of being a threat to national security.

The National Terrorism Threat Advisory System

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 20:34:32 UTC

Australia's current terrorism threat level is Probable _{^{(Australian National Security,n.d).
(Australian National Security, n.d).}}

Endeavour Hills stabbings (2014)

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 20:51:42 UTC

On 23rd September 2014, Abdul Numan Haider was apporached by two counter-terrorism officers in Melbourne (Time,2014). Abdul Numan attacked the officers before being shot dead (Time, 2014).
Before the attack from Abdul Numan waved his ISIS flag at a local mall (Time,2014).
The attacker was one of 40 to 60 individuals who recently had their passports cancelled over concerns they would join the small but prominent legion of Australians fighting with ISIS in Syria and Iraq (Times,2014).

Short Explanation of the war

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 20:55:06 UTC

(GOV - Foreign Travel Advice, 2018)

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 22:08:13 UTC

Advises against all travel to South Sudan.

Differences in Crisis Management Plan for each destination (South Sudan & Australia)

a_patt9636 — 2018-02-28 22:40:05 UTC

South Sudan's civil conflict hasn't got any governmental Crisis Management Plan in place compared to Australia. I believe this is because the civil conflict in South Sudan is between two governmental parties. Compared to Australia the government has taken measures to prevent and recovery from (terrorism) a civil conflict.
I believe Australia hasn't had a big civil conflict and or terrorist attack due to its extensive crisis management plan and this is why its visitor numbers haven't been affected.

Recovery

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 22:47:04 UTC

The tourist market went down drastically as many people canceled there holidays to Turkey after the state of emergency was declared but Despite losses in the tourism and export sectors Turkish economy continued to grow by 4.8%.
Reconstruction of laws

(ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION, 2016)

The graph below shows the decline in tourism and then the recovery in 2017

Successful campaigns against terror attacks
ABTA, one of Britain’s tourism operators, says it has seen a 66 percent increase in early reservations. (Daily News, 2018)

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 23:38:23 UTC

Summary

k_hillis7862 — 2018-02-28 23:53:47 UTC

Turkey has faced a tough time as the tourism industry dropped majorly and it is one of the key markets for income especially in holiday destinations. The crisis management plan they have lets them make decisions on the spot which helps the government control as well as make critical decisions

Who owns what

c_johnson3769 — 2018-02-28 23:55:55 UTC

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-01 07:53:29 UTC

Power sharing is believed to promote moderate and cooperative bahviour among warring factions by guarenteeing each group a share of state power and other strategic resources such as oil, ports, seas and political capitals (Onditi, 2017).
The power sharing agreement allows the two governing parties to both have power however this is not a problem solving method.

(UNHCR - 2018)

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-01 08:06:58 UTC

23rd December 2014 - 127,283
15th February 2017 - 2,434,024

Response

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 10:04:26 UTC

The FBI lead he investigation into the terror attack with the full resources of the federal government (Garunay, 2016).
Orlando tourism board have received some travellers cancelling their bookings. Travellers who do cancel trips may or may not get refunds, depending on how they booked. Airlines typically levy steep cancellation fees, but theme park tickets may be refundable, especially if purchased as a package deal and canceled 30 days ahead of the reservations (Silk, 2016).
In response to what was already a growing sense of vulnerability among the traveling and general public, theme parks around Orlando had stepped up security even before Sunday’s mass shooting.

Disney, Universal and SeaWorld added metal detectors and increased the number of security guards (Silk, 2016).

Terrorist Preparedness Plan

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 10:07:11 UTC

The UK response to terrorism is delivered through the CONTEST Strategy, which is the responsibility of central government, delivered with a range of partners, including the police and the security and intelligence agencies.
It has four components:
PURSUE: the investigation and disruption of terrorist attacks;

PREVENT: work to stop people becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism;

PROTECT: improving our protective security to stop a terrorist attack; and

PREPARE: working to minimise the impact of an attack and to recover as quickly as possible.
(Harris, n.d).

Threat Levels

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 10:16:06 UTC

The threat level for the UK from international terrorism is set by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC). The current threat level is set at SEVERE.
The levels are:

• LOW means an attack is unlikely
• MODERATE means an attack is possible, but not likely
• SUBSTANTIAL means an attack is a strong possibility
• SEVERE means an attack is highly likely
• CRITICAL means an attack is expected imminently
(Harris, n.d).

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-01 10:34:03 UTC

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 11:18:49 UTC

Recovery

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 13:07:08 UTC

Local American muslims show their support to the families victims of the shooting.
The Muslim civil liberties organization is asking for blood donations to help those injured in the attack.
The American Muslim Community Centers, a mosque in Longwood, Fla., said the mosque stands with Americans and "senseless violence has no place in our religion or in our society" (Durando, 2016).
The attack on the Pulse nightclub has the potential to "reduce tourism-related spending" over the next couple of months (Rott, 2016).
Tourism is not expected to drop with businesses closed for a minimal amount of time, allowing business to continue as normal.

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 13:07:39 UTC

Summary

j_hall4556 — 2018-03-01 13:24:06 UTC

When looking at all the civil conflicts it is clear that all the conflicts discussed have a political motive behind them, from civil war to sending a message about bombing countries. These countries have suffered from civil conflicts and acts of terror but have learnt from these events to help develop an effective management plan to help deal with future threats. or in some cases help develop their management plan.

Tourism in South Sudan and how the civil war has affected tourism

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-06 18:22:06 UTC

In South Sudan, a tourism industry barely exists, however, South Sudan is in the process of developing a tourism Act (Fortune of Africa, 2016). Although South Sudan has two airports, Juba and Malakal which links the country to other destinations, however, there is no found international arrival numbers for either airports.

For South Sudan to create awareness of tourism in the country, the civil war must come to an end. Aswell as the war ending, they have to market themselves however currently they have insufficient marketing of the tourism sector in South Sudan (Fortune of Africa, 2016). South Sudan also lack-

Inadequate accommodation facilities
A lack of trained and experienced people to run and manage the tourism sector
inadequate funds from the government
poor transport infrastructure

(Fortune of Africa, 2016).

Tourism in Australia

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-06 18:59:54 UTC

The tourism industry employees around 1 in 12 Australians in the Australians tourism industry (Australian National University, 2017).

8.8 million International visitors visited Australia in 2017 which is a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year (Tourism Australia, 2018).
$41.2 billion was spent by international visitors in 2017 which is an increase of 6% compared to the previous year (Tourism Australia, 2018).

In 2014 when the little terrorism event occurred the visitor numbers were not affected which suggests that the tourism industry wasn't affected by the terrorist event.

8,810,800 International visitors visited Australia in 2014 (Tourism Australia, 2018).

Tourism

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-06 21:53:48 UTC

Orlando relies on tourism as a major contributor to its economy. In fact, the city that is home to Disney World, the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and SeaWorld received more than 60 million visitors in 2015. Tourism is responsible or an economic impact to the surrounding County of more than US$60 billion annually (Theconversation, 2016).
Crime and terror have a negative impact on the cities where they take place, the tourism industry has actually become more resilient in recent years (Theconversation, 2016).
Orlando’s tourism industry will need to implement a tourism crisis management plan immediately to prevent further damage to their economy (Theconversation, 2016).

a_patt9636 — 2018-03-08 15:50:32 UTC

Syria compared to London and the US

c_johnson3769 — 2018-03-09 15:48:06 UTC

The attack in the gay nightclub in Florida was carried out by a man who had pledged allegiance to ISIS - a group formed due to the civil conflict in Syria (Ralph Ellis, 2016). There have been 8 ISIS/IS/ISIL claimed attacks in north america as of 2014 (CNN, 2018).

In the UK there have been five terrorist attacks claimed by ISIS, this includes the Manchester Arena bombing in 2017, and an event in London in 2015 where a man cut another man’s throat and shouted ‘this is for Syria, my Muslim brothers’ (CNN, 2018).

Although ISIS have ‘claimed’ responsibility for these attacks, there is no concrete evidence it was them who have carried them out as a lot are just believed to be carried out by individual forces who have been inspired by ISIS. Although these may not have been directly caused by ISIS themselves, it proves that they are influencing people worldwide to commit acts of terrorism and copy them.

Many syrian refugees seek asylum further than Lebanon/Turkey etc. and enter countries such as the UK, and there are plans to rehome around 20,000 refugees in the UK by 2020 (Independent, 2017). However, this may cause tension as ISIS is a syrian based terrorist group and as they have claimed responsibility for or influenced attacks in the UK, not every citizen was welcoming towards the refugees. This causes tension within the country.

Syria compared to Lebanon and Turkey

c_johnson3769 — 2018-03-09 15:49:37 UTC

After their own civil conflict, Lebanon has not long began to recover, however tourism there is still affected by the Syrian war as Lebanon is situated close to Syria and the end of the civil war is expected to push GDP contributed by tourism in lebanon up from 7%. As Lebanon is close to Syria, many refugees also seek asylum there also affected Lebanon’s economy, decreased job opportunities, affected public services, and had political and security impacts (Cherri et. al, 2016).

Turkey has also been involved in the Syrian civil war showing support for the rebels against the Syrian president, working alongside Jordan, the Gulf States and the US. This may make tourists associate Turkey with the civil war as they have also bombed the Kurds, however they didn’t bomb ISIS. The war is affecting tourism in Turkey as it is not perceived to be as safe as it once was due to bordering Syria which has cost approximately $15 billion worth of annual revenue which these tourists would have bought (Ozen, 2017).

ONGOING V PREVIOUS EVENTS

c_johnson3769 — 2018-03-09 15:50:59 UTC

The drug war happening in Mexico has been ongoing since 2006 - 12 years - and the civil war in Syria has been ongoing since 2011 - 7 years. Both of these are examples of long, continuous civil conflicts in less developed countries, for which there is no strategic plan in place for yet otherwise they would have ended. Other case studies such as Turkey and Manchester, UK are examples of short-term events that have happened over a short period and have enabled the countries to establish a management plan which they can use for future reference and use the previous events as an example of how to deal with it.

Short-term events have happened in more economically developed countries, compared to the long-term events in Syria, Mexico and South Sudan, which have suffered more deaths, struggled more economically and been unable to recover as quickly compared to the developed countries.

The Mexican Drug war effects on tourism

c_johnson3769 — 2018-03-09 15:51:53 UTC

It is rare for there to be cartel related violence in the more popular tourist attractions such as Cancun due to the government trying to prevent this, however there was an issue in a popular tourist nightclub in 2017 in Cancun where nine people were left dead, including tourists from Canada, America and Italy. The tourism leaders in Cancun quickly announced a campaign using the slogan ‘Cancunners, because we love it’ in hopes of making the resort look positive again to tourists. Tourists in Mexico spend 35% of their money in Cancun, and in 2015 tourism there contributed $8.6 billion (Gallegos, 2017).

The violence in Mexico has negatively affected Acapula which was one Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations and made up around 8% of the GDP in 2010, however has seen some of the most horrific drug related violence since Calderon’s presidency. The US has warned its citizens not to travel to Mexico and put it on a list with other countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen and North Korea (Tovrov, 2012).

The UK Government’s website advisors travellers to thoroughly research the area they are visiting and avoid areas with drug-related violence including Tijuana, Michoacan and Tabasco as these can be dangerous areas (Gov.uk, 2018).

Effects of the Syrian civil war on tourism

c_johnson3769 — 2018-03-09 15:54:51 UTC

Tourism in Syria has massively been affected, with virtually no airlines flying into the country, attractions (including UNESCO attractions) being destroyed, hotels have either been closed and destroyed, for Syria to regain a tourism industry, a very large investment must be made once the civil war and the violence is over.

The UK’s government website advises against all travel into Syria and explains the situation there as ‘extremely volatile and dangerous’. The website also states the chemical and terrorist attacks which have taken place and how there is a high threat of kidnapping and no british embassy (Gov.uk, 2018).

When visiting the Lonely Planet website, the homepage instantly states that Syria is among the most dangerous places on the planet and says ‘to put it simply, you can’t go’. This is because Westerners have been targeted for either kidnapping or execution, and the whole country itself is far away from seeing peace anytime soon (Lonely Planet, 2018).