Meteorology Research Away Day 2026 by Claire Ryder

How do you deal with communicating forecast uncertainty to your users?

2026-01-12 09:31:38 UTC

2026-01-12 09:31:56 UTC

Why hot dry dusty = meningitis?

What kind of resistance/obstacles (if any!) came from the African partners in these projects? How did you overcome them?

2026-01-12 09:32:05 UTC

sj903980 — 2026-01-12 09:36:02 UTC

Presumably your users have a variety of tolerances between Type 1 and Type 2 errors. How do you address that, beyond the traffic light gradation?

sj903980 — 2026-01-12 09:36:50 UTC

Do you explicitly increase the confidence in your forecasts based on the driver configuration?

2026-01-12 09:37:45 UTC

Is there any other seasonal disease outbreak investigation other than Meningococcal meningitis outbreak ?

2026-01-12 09:44:28 UTC

Laura W.: Is the emission reduction connected with Covid breakdown?

Ambrogio: how did you compute the PV budget uncertainties? How much of that comes from parameterisation schemes?

2026-01-12 09:47:18 UTC

Ambrogio

2026-01-12 09:48:15 UTC

Is there a theory which determines the spacing of the banding?

Ambrogio: How does the cooling modify the stability structure of the atmosphere and the likelihood of the SJ leading to strong surface winds/gusts?

2026-01-12 09:49:50 UTC

Fiona: How impactful are these short rains in the Greater Horn of Africa?

2026-01-12 09:53:03 UTC

Wilcox

2026-01-12 09:55:52 UTC

How can observations best be combined with the modelling to understand responses to aerosol decline?

Fiona: how do you compel the latent space in your VAE to represent real physical states?

2026-01-12 09:55:55 UTC

Fiona

2026-01-12 09:56:35 UTC

Is there a limitation on the number of large scale factors you can consider and still get robust results?

Fiona:

2026-01-12 09:56:59 UTC

Can you conclusively say whether the El Nino effect is direct on the GHA precip or always modified by the Indian Ocean from your findings?

Anna

2026-01-12 09:59:02 UTC

I love the ocean modelling schematic. Where does the painting of the ocean come from?

Fiona Spuler

2026-01-12 09:59:15 UTC

What might be the reason for the differences in the ENSO response between model & reanalysis?

Anna

2026-01-12 10:00:46 UTC

Are you nudging all the prognostic variables?

Anna

2026-01-12 10:01:28 UTC

Why are you nudging to the initial state (rather than the normal method of nudging the deep ocean to observed climatology)

NCAS Site lead

2026-01-12 10:06:21 UTC

As Site Lead do you get to wear a hard hat and hi viz?

Hao: what is the mean residence time for WV in the UTLS? What processes is it sensitive to?

2026-01-12 10:11:48 UTC

Hao

2026-01-12 10:14:11 UTC

The tropopause occurs at different heights in 300-100hpa range. Does this present an issue for bias correction in this range and is the correction spatially dependent?

Hao

2026-01-12 10:16:27 UTC

Why are satellite retrievals biased at 150 hPa and how do you know the in situ measurements are reliable?

Hao

2026-01-12 10:16:52 UTC

How do you account for representation uncertainty in your comparison between the point observations (hygrometer) and satellite data?

Andrea:

2026-01-12 10:18:29 UTC

Strongest trend in Southern Ocean: is this connected to there being high uncertainty in tas in this region (v. sparse obs)

Andrea: How long do the vegetation changes take to stabilise in these runs?

2026-01-12 10:20:08 UTC

Andrea:

2026-01-12 10:20:33 UTC

What is the uncertainty in the broadleaf vegetation response? This strikes me as something that might be very different between models (but am not an expert!)

Rivosecchi

2026-01-12 10:21:08 UTC

How consistent is UKESM post net zero CO2 emissions climate responses with other models?

Andrea

2026-01-12 10:21:13 UTC

Could the vegetation effect at high GWL be due to carbon concentrations? Or just temperature?

Andrea - is there a pattern in which land cover type is being replaced by the increase in broad leaf tree coverage?

2026-01-12 10:21:59 UTC

2026-01-12 10:23:12 UTC

Why is there a UFO on the Away Day logo?

Andrea

2026-01-12 10:23:13 UTC

Why do those regions in paticular see such vegetation increases?

Robin

2026-01-12 10:30:29 UTC

Why is there hysteresis of ice sheet around Antarctica?

Joana

2026-01-12 10:34:24 UTC

How do you test that the risk of turbulence indicated by model diagnostics is a reliable estimate?

Joana

2026-01-12 10:37:12 UTC

Over which regions are you expecting wind shear to increase and stability to decrease the most?

Joana

sj903980 — 2026-01-12 10:37:33 UTC

How has the development of aircraft since the 1960s affected the appropriateness of the hazard metrics being used?

2026-01-12 10:38:59 UTC

To Joana：What theory supports that the resolution of climate models can be used to diagnose CAT

Rob

2026-01-12 10:39:22 UTC

What does your new cost function do above rather than spread data smoothly?

Joana

2026-01-12 10:41:42 UTC

Is it possible to see any increase in turbulence incidences in the records for the last few decades and does this fit with the predictions?

Sarah

2026-01-12 10:47:37 UTC

What do you see as the biggest opportunities for DA methodologies coming from the machine learning community?

Please post questions here for the RDLs...

gn916173 — 2026-01-12 13:38:51 UTC

2026-01-12 13:45:54 UTC

What does KE mean in the research culture list?

Diversity

2026-01-12 13:50:09 UTC

RDL diversity has taken a dip! Good talk though

2026-01-12 13:56:15 UTC

Do any of these (such as REF) apply to visiting researchers?

2026-01-12 13:57:28 UTC

What opportunities are there for phd students to do work to do with impact not directly related to papers? (Related to survey question)

2026-01-12 13:59:24 UTC

Is the per-person carbon budget in effect? It's unfair and asymmetrical, but I haven't heard anything about it in a year.

2026-01-12 14:00:13 UTC

Will the final survey results be shared later on?

Please post questions to the Short Talks 2 session here.

gn916173 — 2026-01-12 14:02:13 UTC

2026-01-12 14:03:44 UTC

Does the length of time someone has been in the department impact their perception of research culture?

Joy

2026-01-12 14:07:55 UTC

Does it require a lot of manual labour to reinstate these older flood measures

Singarayer

2026-01-12 14:09:33 UTC

To what extent are hydroclimatic projections dependent on atmospheric circulation change in the region?

Laura:

2026-01-12 14:13:15 UTC

Extent to which drought effects felt in 2025 (even when average precip) due to failing and inadequate water infrastructure? Possible to quantify this? E.g. m3 of reservoir capacity/capita

Laura

2026-01-12 14:15:02 UTC

What would you say to people (usually older climate deniers) who argue we downplay how bad 1976 was in favour of more modern extremes?

2026-01-12 14:15:29 UTC

Laura: beside 1976 there was another drier year in 2000s. In 1976 there weren't any satellite data in ERA5. Satellite data have been integrated from 1979. So for 2000s there will be. Are you planning to investigate that particular year as well?

Baker

2026-01-12 14:15:44 UTC

To what extent was the previous year important for drought since 2024 was wet and I think 1975 also dry?

Yiqing

2026-01-12 14:21:46 UTC

Why is the model performance for the roof surface so much better than other surfaces?

SUWES

sws00rsp — 2026-01-12 14:22:00 UTC

Some of the surface types seemed to recognize the presence of cloud much more strongly than the others. Why so?

Yiqing

2026-01-12 14:22:06 UTC

Does your model consider air quality (either indoor or outdoor?)

Caleb

2026-01-12 14:24:39 UTC

Can a difference is charge in fog be detected in granite areas like Devon where there are much higher radon emissions?

Charge in fog

2026-01-12 14:26:48 UTC

Do the principles discussed apply to clouds in general, or only to fog?

How does a diffusion ML model work?

gn916173 — 2026-01-12 16:20:00 UTC

Robert

2026-01-12 16:27:36 UTC

Why do you expect SSW to be followed by NAO-?

Robert:

2026-01-12 16:31:38 UTC

Is the impact of the nudging dependent on the lengthscale (i.e. nudging towards a zonal mean)?

Danny

2026-01-12 16:34:27 UTC

Do you to assume characteristic shape of floes as well as size spectrum?

Danny:

gn916173 — 2026-01-12 16:37:55 UTC

From Gentle Oyster: How does melting affect the energy budget?

Danny

2026-01-12 16:39:03 UTC

Does the introduction of the new processes in the sea ice model introduce many new unknown parameters to the model, if so, do you need to tune them?

Robert:

gn916173 — 2026-01-12 16:39:06 UTC

From Trustworthy Octopus:why do you think nudged experiments demonstrate that stratospheric skill might not lead to better tropospheric forecasts if the two are not allowed to interact properly? Clearly the law of compensating errors applies to nudging as much as anything else?

Jake

sws00rsp — 2026-01-12 16:41:31 UTC

Is there any evidence to suggest that a rapid ice loss event affects the cyclones?

Helen

2026-01-12 16:47:08 UTC

What dispersion model are you using?

Helen

2026-01-12 16:47:23 UTC

Even with Xe model conc is still almost order of mag too small. What are the reasons for this?

2026-01-12 16:48:44 UTC

Do antarctic cyclones have similar effects?

Jonny

2026-01-12 16:54:53 UTC

Why does warmer temperatures mean longer takeoff distances?

Jonny

2026-01-12 16:55:31 UTC

Would reduction of 10 passengers make flights unviable economically under current pricing models?

Jonny

2026-01-12 16:55:40 UTC

Why do warmer temperatures mean more noise?

Alfie:

2026-01-12 16:58:26 UTC

Have you checked downscaled results for winds? I have seen attempts to do this for TCs (25km->5km) which have been very unsuccessful.

Alfie

2026-01-12 16:58:27 UTC

How did your model compare to (simple) statistical benchmarks?

Alfie

2026-01-12 16:59:02 UTC

Is there data available that would allow you to test the model on a whole year? Or would this require generation of more training data?

Alfie

2026-01-12 17:03:07 UTC

Do you explicitly provide land cover and orography/DEM data to your model or is this implicit in the training data?

Dan and Brian

2026-01-12 17:04:24 UTC

Is there Kelvin Helmholtz instability in the shear layer above convective updrafts observed?

Andrea

2026-01-12 17:10:14 UTC

What do you think drives the big warming/cooling difference between N and S hemispheres at high warming levels?

Andrea

2026-01-12 17:12:56 UTC

In the second model is there more CO2 take-up by the land/ocean?

To Andrea

2026-01-12 17:13:07 UTC

Is there any different responses to amoc in 2 models at different warming levels causing northern and southern hemisphere differences?

Williams

2026-01-12 17:13:44 UTC

Will higher water vapour amount in a warmer atmosphere increase atmospheric density significantly or is this effect tiny?

Fantastic job everyone!

2026-01-12 17:17:58 UTC