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Patterns of Collapse of Complex Organizations - Sir John Glubb and Joseph A. Tainter

Lens 2: Science of Living Systems

1. Everything has a beginning a middle and an end

2. Living Systems Change in Order to Preserve Themselves

3. It's Better to Learn Than Be Dead

4. Order for Free

5. What You See is All You Get

6. Nothing Living Lives Alone

There are many great texts on the pattern of collapse. I chose to feature the work of Sir John Glubb because, in reading his work, I was continually stunned with his descriptions of the specific human behaviors our species always exhibits through the rise and fall of civilizations. I still am likely to gasp as I read his descriptions and share them with others.

Glubb studied thirteen empires in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe (where he had served as a military commander), from Assyria in 859 BCE to modern Britain in 1950. The pattern of the decline and fall of these superpowers was startlingly clear. It didn't matter where they were or what technology they had or how they exercised power. They all declined in the same stages and it always took ten generations, about 250 years. The logic of this is very clear: Each generation matures in better socioeconomic circumstances created by the preceding generation; thus, there is always a march to increasing materialism. In every generation, youth will have higher expectations for comfort than their parents. Improved material conditions create attitudinal changes that insist on still more material changes; and, predictably, because of its wealth and erosion of morality, the civilization declines into decadence.

Here are Glubb's six ages as delineated in The Fate of Empires. For more detail, see the appendix. I hope you'll explore them — they are fascinating, troubling, and convincing. As you read these brief descriptions, keep in mind that they describe all human civilizations, even though they read like an accurate tale of our time. This was published in 1976.

1. The Age of Pioneers. Fearless, courageous, and without constraint, invaders surprise the dominant civilization with their attacks. Strong virtues of shared purpose, honor, and a strict moral code bind them.

2. The Age of Conquest. Using more sophisticated and disciplined military actions (learned from the civilization they are conquering), they take control. Often there is a strong religious imperative to their conquest — they are doing their God's work.

3. The Age of Commerce. With a strong military to protect the frontiers, explorers embark on a search for wealth creation, seeking new enterprises as far as they can reach. Values of glory and honor give way to values of profit and personal wealth. The rich build palaces, railroads, hotels, communications networks, depending on the cultural context.

4. The Age of Affluence. Service ethics disappear and selfishness takes over. Education shifts from learning to obtaining qualifications for high-paying jobs. The young and ambitious seek wealth, not honor or service.

5. The Age of Intellect. The arts and knowledge flourish in the midst of decline. Intellectuals are prevalent and engage in incessant talking as a substitute for action. The belief takes hold that problems can be solved by mental cleverness rather than selfless service and courage. Natural sciences advance but do not prevent decline. Civil conflict increases even as the empire is under dire threat. Instead of banding together to preserve the nation, internal political factions seek to destroy one another.

6. The Age of Decadence. Wealth and power have led to petty and negative behaviors, including narcissism, consumerism, materialism, nihilism, fanaticism, and high levels of frivolity. A celebrity culture worships athletes, actors, and singers. The masses are distracted by entertainment and sporting events, abandon moral restraint, shirk duties, and insist on entitlements. The leaders believe they are impervious and will govern forever. This age also develops the welfare state as imperial leaders generously build universities and hospitals, give grants to university students, support the young and the poor, and extend citizenship to everyone. When they run out of money, all this benevolence disappears and these institutions shut their doors.

There is no such thing as a self-made person, we must confront the myth of progress by acknowledging our interdependence and whose shoulders we stand on.

For Wheatley, "My personal aspiration for legacy simplifies with age. I want to leave behind strong shoulders. Shoulders strong enough for some to stand on to carry them forward into whatever awaits. After a lifetime of yearning to change things on a large scale, this simple aspiration now feels more than enough" (285).

"Warriors for the Human Spirit."

Defined as: "Highly specialized group of people who are devoted to selfless service, who train with discipline and diligence to develop their skills, and who band together as a community. . . to support our best human capacities for generosity, compassion, altruism, curiosity, creativity and caring" (255).

https://margaretwheatley.com/

1. What just happened?

2. Why do you think it happened?

3. What can we learn from this?

4. How will we apply these learnings?

Wheatley confronts the myth of progress and does not paint our world in a positive light.

She critiques human hubris and dependence on technology and its dehumanizing affects.

• By analyzing the negative impact of technology and the internet in the "Post-truth" era.

• The internet's perpetuation of hate, and fake news, and severe skepticism about our dependence on AI. . . The digital era has erased the intelligence era.

She critiques the arrogance of science and the despiritualizing affects of reductionism and denial of any mysterious ways of knowing.

To combat this bleak picture she suggests sane leadership is possible by citing examples of:

• learning organizations like the military

• faith communities like the Women Religious in the USA

• individuals, monks, and saints and spiritual leaders around the globe

• non-profits like: Neighborhoodcenters inc. Houston, Tx., and her own non-profit, Berkana

Spiritual Warriors always arise during collapse...

"They are armed with only two weapons: compassion and insight. They are peaceful warriors vowing to never use aggression or fear to accomplish their ends" (252).

We need Warrior Leaders who are:

1. more human humans

2. learners

3. aware and engaged with their environment

4. self-aware

5. open to a diversity of perspectives

6. knowledgeable

7. humble

8. discerning

9. secure in their identity

10. dependent on community