'Now I think ...'

Write two paragraphs answering the question, 'Why is the weather so hard to predict?'. Your first paragraph should describe what you thought before starting this assignment.

Now I know that it's not all that easy... It takes a lot of effort and work in order to get a somewhat accurate result for us to refer to. It involves a lot of research and work, from using equations to analyzing and reading weather maps. Even though, nowadays the meteorologists and weather forecasters have a lot of recourses, the weather predictions will never be 100% accurate. There will always be some sort of assumptions that they make which will affect the final result. Any little thing can change the result majorly. Which brings me to the topic of the butterfly affect or the chaos affect, the butterfly/chaos affect means that any little change can affect something so majorly that everything changes. Something so little like a butterfly flapping there wings can affect or change into something so major.

But now I think that weather prediction is extremely hard and unstable. Because there are too many factors in our daily life, even the tiny warm air that on the ground can go up can mix and make it rain. Like convective rain, it is hard to predict because it is created by the convective rain is triggered by the heats from a small patch of ground, so it hard to know will the air masses is enough to let it rise to the sky, how long it will take. It is like the butterfly effect-a butterfly flaps its wing and it causes a massive storm. It tells us, even a small factor can have a big effect. 

Now I think that forecasting weather would be difficult and would require a lot of patience and studying. To be able to predict the weather, we would also need to know what are the different kinds of fronts, ways that a specific type of weather would form, and the two different types of rain and how to predict them. Frontal rain is easier to predict than Convective rain as frontal rain happens when a cold front lifts a warm front. A Convective rain prediction is harder to predict as it requires a lot of calculations and investigation. Whatever the forecasters predict could also go wrong due to the butterfly effect. The butterfly effect is when something small happens which changes everything or when a butterfly flaps it’s wings and starts a tornado. This is the very definition of chaos.forecast the weather, we would need a lot of concentration and calculations as if even one thing went wrong, perhaps the whole forecast would be wrong. This relates to the butterfly effect- one small thing could cause chaos and change everything

Now I know that it's actually extremely hard to predict weather, the weather changes a lot because of the butterfly effect. The wind that made by a butterfly's wings flipping could easily cause a strong tornado in taxes. Weather predicting is not as simple as only looking at the sky and clouds, it needs to do lots of calculating and analysis from the information to predict weather. The weather is going to change even there is only a little thing happened.

Now I know that weather forecasting needs a huge work, there are many wrong informations because there are a variety of factors, weatherforecasting is chaos. Even if a small factor may effect the whole weather forecasting to inaccurate, for example, the butterfly effect, if a butterfly flapped its wings, it may create inaccurate informations. Additionally, there are extremely many different types of weathers, so it's very hard to know the special type of the weather, different kind of rains, and fronts,this made weather forecasting even more difficult. Also, weather forecasting may need many equipments such as satelites and more. Therefore, predicting the weather is a difficult and complicated work.

Now I think, predicting weather is extremely difficult. I learned that it requires multiple programs and machines to be run at once to even have a chance to predict weather. Also weather forecasts aren’t really that correct due to most of the rains being convection. Meteorologists needs to know how hot the ground is how many water vapors are there to know convection rain. I learned that meteorologists usually can’t predict those kind of weathers that I mentioned, even if they use a machine they will have no idea what the radius of the weather is. One more thing I learned was the butterfly effect if a butterfly flaps it’s wings it will create a storm that will affect multiple areas. Which means smaller things can cause chaos.

Weather prediction is a challenging task due to various factors that make the Earth's atmosphere a complex and dynamic system. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, known as chaos theory, means that small initial differences can lead to significant variations in weather outcomes over time. This sensitivity to initial conditions, often referred to as the "butterfly effect," poses a challenge for long-term weather forecasting.

Additionally, the atmosphere is influenced by a multitude of interconnected factors such as temperature, pressure, humidity, wind patterns, and more. The interactions between these variables create a complex web of atmospheric processes that are difficult to model accurately. Weather forecasting models rely on mathematical equations to simulate these processes, but simplifications and assumptions introduce uncertainties into the predictions.

Now I think the weather forecasts are not that accurate because forecasting a weather is a complicated process when meteorologists need to use satellites and check fronts to give predictions on the news. Sometimes a 5-day weather forecast isn’t that accurate even though the accuracy is 90%. Also now I know that sometimes weather forecasts can’t be that accurate because it has a chaos theory, or the butterfly effect, which before the meteorologist said that there should be sunny weather expected, but then something happened to cause a cold front approach and brought either heavy precipitation (cold front) or showers (warm front) to the city or town.

Now I think, weather prediction is extremely hard and that it took a lot of effort and there are really hard to predict weather, that consists of heating up the ground and in to the sky, the butterfly witch is a sub for chaos caused all that crazy rain and typhoons and winds and it was not just big clouds, and predicting the weather could only be seven days as after the seven days it has a night chance of inaccuracy.

Now I think that prediting weather is really hard, there are a lot of factors in our life, and a tiny amout of wind can mix into the rain, so it will be really hard. The wind and the rain can form into a lot of different kinds.

Now I think that detecting weather is in fact really difficult to predict. I learned that weather shows chaotic behavior, which means the smallest changes can become a different weather. That makes it hard for the weather forecasters and meteorologists to predict weather. Accurately predicting the time and place the weather will be is another challenge for them, for it’s hard to be accurate for weather. It is also difficult to accurately predict or measure the model and forecast, there is only a 50/50 chance of it being correct.

       Now I think, the prediction of weather isn’t just how simple that I used to think about it. For instance the Frontal rain and Convective rain the frontal rain is easy to predict but the convective rain isn’t the same with frontal rain and this is because of the small things affect it which is also known as chaos theory. The result of prediction could change easily, because on earth everything changes daily. A theory that could support this is called the “Chaos Theory” and because weather is a chaotic system therefore the prediction for weather could be hard and confusing. Just like what Edward N. Lorenz have mentioned about the Chaos Theory, “Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" which reflects how small things changes and affects different places.

Now I think, it’s not just easy thing. I didn’t know that they have to do many works. The atmosphere is changing all the time and we can’t collect data from the future. And if they predict with satellite or other tools, it’s not accurate so they have to study hard.

I used to think that the what ever the meteorology predict it is right, and it is super easy to predict. You just have to know where is the wind blowing and what is the temperature.

But later I know that only frontal rain is easy to predict. Not like convection rain it is much harder to predict. It form by when the one place of the ground got warmer, and it raises to the air then causing water vapor to rain. Because it is hard to predict what is the temperature, how high will it raise, how much water vapor contain, and how long will it stay. The main factor that cause hard to predict water is butterfly effect, it means a small change might totally change the answer. Ludvig Lorenz find this effect. In 1973 he was trying to predict the weather he did two sets of data he accidentally round a number to the nearest tenth place, then he found out that the result is changing bigger and bigger.

Now I think that rains hard to predict and meteorologists made mistakes in weather forecasting after watching some videos about why are weathers difficult to predict. I have learnt about some of the rains are hard to predict on small scales, and butterfly effect can cause chaos in the weather and around the city, and it is hard to identify the weather by it.

But after I watch the video I knew the scientists cannot predict perfectly accurate, because it is impossible to map every molecule and their trajectory in the atmosphere. Based on that, I understand weather is hard to predict, because even a tiny movement of wind can change the weather, so the weather report cannot be 100% accurate. That also remind me butterfly effect, means a little action can cause huge changes. The weather is a example of butterfly effect.

I used to think that weather predictions are easy to get right. I thought that just by some machines and technology we have an accurate prediction for the next month, that is rarely incorrect. And when it was incorrect, I would be irritated, as if why couldn’t meteorologists write proper information if they are scientist.

Now I think that it makes sense for the prognostic to sometimes be false, since it’s more of an educated guess rather than an actual detailed prediction. Machines such as satellites or weather radars predict the pressure, temperature, and humidity. And only after a serious amount of calculations, meteorologists get a more or less accurate result. If we also contribute to the Chaos Effect, we could see how uneasy it is to know what the weather will be in a few days. Somethings as gentle as a butterfly’s wing can accelerate to a storm. A small movement of air could contribute a lot to the system and break any prediction. Now, I hold no anger for scientists, as the job they are doing is visibly exhausting.

40% of the weather is frontal weather. They can be predicted because its forming progress is steady. However, the other 60% of the weather is convective weather and they formed irregularly. It is hard to predict the weather because there were many variables in it, and these variables were hard to find, such as the small warm air masses on the ground. These variables caused the difficulty to predict the weather. I learned that small things can also affect the outcome such as a butterfly can cause a hurrican in Texas

Now, I think there are 6 reasons to make the weather hard to predict: 1 we should know how warm the ground will be. 2 we should know that how far up the hot air will rise. 3 we should know how much water vapor the are holds. 4 we should predict how long the water on air will stay. 5 Chaos Theory. 6 The Perfection is impossible. We can not measure all the factors that affect weather, and accuracy is limited.

Now I know that it is hard to predict weather. You can easily predict frontal rain, but convective rain is not. Convective rain can suddenly appear. It is hard to find the amount of rain, where is the rain, and how long it will last. Also something small like a butterfly can ruin the data.

Now I know that when meteorologist trying to predict the weather, they need to put many work in there and effort. Because even a tiny of wind can effect the weather and effect the accuracy of getting the weather. For example, the butterfly effect, if a butterfly flapped its wings, this may effect the accuracy of getting the correct weather. Another reason it hard to predict is because of convective rain, convective rain is formed when heat from the ground warms up a small masses of air, which then rises and cools, causing the water vapor in it to condense and fall to the ground. Because convective rain is triggered by heat from small patch of ground this cause it hard to know how warm various parts of the ground will be at a particular time, whether will the heat be enough to life a particular mass of air to a particular height or how much water vapor that particular mass of air hold and how long that particular mass of air will stay over that particular path of warm ground. These four reason all made convective rain hard to predict.

Now i think it’s really hard to predict the weather. Because we can’t really predict what’s going to happen in the future. And i realized how much time, efforts, money and programs we should use to predict the weather and it’s not even 100percent accurate. There is really lots of factors in our life and tiny warm air can mix into rain so it’s difficult to predict and butterfly effect can ruin the data, and this means small major things can effect the data.

But now, I knew that predicting weather is a hard thing. The weather is unpredictable because it changes every minute every second. Meteorologists use many tools to predict the weather. For example, they have to use the satellite data in accurate weather forecasting, providing high-quality, timely information about conditions around the globe. They also have to use AWIPS to generates weather graphics and hazardous weather watches and warnings. They have to use lot of tools to predict the weather, so this is why the weather is so hard to predict.

Now I think it is takes quite a work to 100% guess out the weather without any mistaking on the humidity, pressure, wind etc. Because now I know that they would have to use a lot of machines and our satellite just to predict the weather, but not 100% fully correctly. Especially when it comes to the butterfly effect, it causes a chaos on guessing the weather since it is like a butterfly flapping it's wings and it can cause a heavy storm. Fronts, pressure, heat, humidity, these kinds of elements were the things the forecasters can't miss when predicting the weather.

Now i think that predicting the weather is not easy, and i know that meteorologists use tools to learn the patterns. I also know that you would need to learn a lot of things before predicting the weather. I also know that there are a lot of ways that the weather can change, which means that the weather forecast might not be a hundred percent correct.

I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

Now i think that predicting the weather is not that easy. They will need a lot of coculations and the predict maybe will have some mistakes. For example, the butterfly effect, if one of the butterfly flaps its wings, it might affect the weather. The little affects could change the weather.

I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

Now I think weather is super hard to predict. Meteorologist can’t plot out every molecule in the atmosphere. Butterfly effect will also affect the weather. If a butterfly flaps its wings, the weather might have a big change. So, it is hard for meteorologists to predict the weather 100% correctly.

now I think that its hard to predict weather and meteorologists need to put a lot of work on that because even small changes can lead to huge differences in outcomes also the accuracy of weather forecasts is challenged by the complexity of the climate system. The atmosphere is composed of many variables and factors, such as pressure, humidity, temperature, wind direction, and wind speed. These variables interact with each other making weather patterns very complex and difficult to predict

Now I think that it's really complicated for meteorologists to predict weather, because many things will effect the weather, it is hard to predict what is the weather going to be like for the rest of the week. Weathers are changing every time. I bet you have seen a sunny day right? Did you ever seen in sunny day and it just suddenly rains? It's normal for weathers, and that's the point of why it's hard for meteorologists to predict weathers. meteorologists have to investigate the temperature of today, the moisture content, detection with radar, and many other processes for predicting the weather. Sometimes when you want to see what the weather is going to be like for the next two days, when it passes two days you might find out that it's not 100% accurate. That's because of the strange, diversity weather.

Now I know that it is extremely hard to predict the weather, the butterfly effect always changes a lot. a small wind made by a little thing would cause many disasters to happen, it not just easy like looking up at the sky, it need a lot of calculating of the information to predict weather.

Now I think in two initial conditions some very little changes will affect weather. Additionally nothing will be 100% accurate including collected data.

Now I know that predicting the weather is very hard. Even one single wrong calculation could cause a huge difference. I also learned that there's two types of rain, frontal rain is one of them. Frontal rain is the rain that we experience 40% of the time when there's a rain. This kind of rain is very reliable and easy to predict. The other kind of rain occurs because of man made heat, so it's very hard to predict.

Now I know that it is hard to predict weather. They can predict frontal rain easily but convective is not easy to predict. convective rain can appear any time. They don't know how long will it rain and how big will the rain be so it is hard to predict.