7023A: Remake of Can you identify the data traps? Wave 2 by Helen Hailin Zhao

hhzhao — 2025-09-15 03:44:59 UTC

The London suburbs have been experiencing heavy fog for the past week. According to the latest report from the Ministry of Health, the number of deaths due to the heavy fog has sharply increased to 2,800 in just one week.

hhzhao — 2025-09-15 03:44:59 UTC

Researchers studied 200 male in the prison and found that 8 of them had XYY syndrome and then recruited 200 males outside of the prison and found that none of them had an extra y chromosome. They thus concluded that male with XYY syndrome are more dangerous.

hhzhao — 2025-09-15 07:33:36 UTC

jisiqiu — 2025-09-15 07:34:05 UTC

It's not necessarily the heavy fog that causes death.

13771970310y — 2025-09-15 07:34:10 UTC

Ministry of health may not report the actual number of death. It only mention the increased number rather than percentage or the total number of population in London.

ljh_knight — 2025-09-15 07:34:10 UTC

Other factors that may cause deaths during that time have not been fully considered,

u3653320 — 2025-09-15 07:34:11 UTC

No evidence show there is causality relationship between heavy fog and sharply increased death. There might be other elements influencing.

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1243485088 — 2025-09-15 07:34:12 UTC

Dense fog is the main cause of death cannot be directly proven, and the increase in deaths may be caused by other factors. More concrete scientific evidence is needed to assert that the death was "caused by thick fog".

g838359879 — 2025-09-15 07:34:12 UTC

The death may have been caused by other factors, not necessarily the weather.

u3653053 — 2025-09-15 07:34:17 UTC

Without controlling for other potential factors (such as seasonal influenza or pre-existing health conditions), there is a lack of comparative data and causal validation.

2025-09-15 07:34:18 UTC

The fog can be one of the reason to cause the death. We need to put another factor into consideration to test the connection.

koujieyao — 2025-09-15 07:34:18 UTC

The death rate didn’t all relate to fog

HUANG Yunjia 3036531718

2025-09-15 07:34:18 UTC

The death rate has no technical correlation with the fog

HAO BINGJIE 3036531110

a1376205727 — 2025-09-15 07:34:19 UTC

There could be other factors that led to the deaths.

xf2rkkqh4t — 2025-09-15 07:34:19 UTC

It’s quite hard to demonstrate a person’s death is caused directly by the fog. Other reasons may lead to the death, or it just coincidentally happend during the frog.

Jessie Wang 3036533510

2025-09-15 07:34:19 UTC

The fog may not cause the death, there may be other factors

liduo4399 — 2025-09-15 07:34:21 UTC

It may have correlations but there were nothing prove that the heavy fog will lead to death

dk9dmqnvrt — 2025-09-15 07:34:22 UTC

It’s a correlation and causation trap

Did the 2800 people are dead for the fog? May be not

Sheng Jialian

2025-09-15 07:34:23 UTC

Besides fogs, some deaths may not be direct correlation, fog cause traffic congestion, which in turn causes more deaths.

guxiaoxia040116 — 2025-09-15 07:34:25 UTC

the dead population is not only caused by fog，other drivens are existing

sydney0716 — 2025-09-15 07:34:25 UTC

There were no statistics on deaths from causes other than smog.

2025-09-15 07:34:27 UTC

The fog is not the only cause of death at same time

2025-09-15 07:34:27 UTC

the death may cause by other factors instead of heavy fog

Dai Ruirui

2025-09-15 07:34:28 UTC

no explanation of how they define deaths caused by fog.no number of deaths aused by fog of last week.

3478236346 — 2025-09-15 07:34:29 UTC

There may be other factors other than the heavy fog leading to death.

jisiqiu — 2025-09-15 07:34:30 UTC

The sample size is too small

2025-09-15 07:34:33 UTC

Heavy fog is not the only reason to cause deaths. Even it may be only the correlation, not causality.

2025-09-15 07:34:35 UTC

The deaths may not all be due to the heavy fog.

sydney0716 — 2025-09-15 07:34:36 UTC

The prison sample is not representative and the overall sample size is too small

There could be other factors causing the deaths which were not considered

2025-09-15 07:34:37 UTC

Confusion of correlation and causality.

2025-09-15 07:34:38 UTC

The sample sizes are not big enough, and the regional reason should be took into consideration.

ljh_knight — 2025-09-15 07:34:39 UTC

small sample size

2025-09-15 07:34:40 UTC

200 people in prison has a larger percentage than 200 people outside the prison, so there is a data collection bias.

vmzxznkbm6 — 2025-09-15 07:34:41 UTC

The fog and death may not constitute cause and effect relationships

3035828475 — 2025-09-15 07:34:41 UTC

Other events may also result in death not only the fog

dgoatxz — 2025-09-15 07:34:41 UTC

This is a correlation instead of causation.

Something else could also cause the death increase

1056855118 — 2025-09-15 07:34:42 UTC

jiangyinuo0122 — 2025-09-15 07:34:42 UTC

Not enough samples ,the 200 men from outside prison are not representative

2025-09-15 07:34:43 UTC

There might be other reasons that cause these deaths

u3653053 — 2025-09-15 07:34:44 UTC

The selection of research subjects exhibits sampling bias, as prison populations and the general population differ in terms of social background, educational attainment, and other factors.

2025-09-15 07:34:44 UTC

London Fog Correlation vs. Causation: Assuming the fog caused all 2,800 deaths without proof.

Lack of Baseline: No context for what a "normal" number of deaths would be.

HUANG Yunjia 3036531718

2025-09-15 07:34:45 UTC

The sample size is too small.

koujieyao — 2025-09-15 07:34:46 UTC

The scale of the samples is limited

2025-09-15 07:34:46 UTC

No other reasons are considered

guxiaoxia040116 — 2025-09-15 07:34:46 UTC

sample selection is not randomly

u3653092 — 2025-09-15 07:34:47 UTC

There’s no causality between the death and the heavy fog.

728550193 — 2025-09-15 07:34:49 UTC

There may be some other reasons for the death

bgwrznnctj — 2025-09-15 07:34:49 UTC

other factors will also cause death ，they don‘t constitute cause and effect relationship

u3653104 — 2025-09-15 07:34:53 UTC

It is difficult to conclude that fog was the sole factor. Other factors, such as cold weather, air pollution, or underlying health conditions, could contribute to the increase in deaths.

2025-09-15 07:34:55 UTC

The direct relationship between deaths and heavy frog is unknown.

2025-09-15 07:34:55 UTC

didnt mention the numbrr of death due to heavy fog in normal time

2025-09-15 07:34:58 UTC

This falsely attributes 2,800 total deaths during the foggy week to the fog itself, rather than considering how many of those deaths were normal for the period and merely coincidental with the weather.

2025-09-15 07:34:58 UTC

It might be a correlation, since there is not an explanation as to why the hevy fog would be causing the deaths. Other causes of death are also not being taken into account

2025-09-15 07:34:59 UTC

The sample size was not large enough

freyawong — 2025-09-15 07:35:01 UTC

correlation is not causality

Liushaotong3036568230 — 2025-09-15 07:35:01 UTC

The sample size of the men recruited outside the prison is not big enough

wusiyuan1108 — 2025-09-15 07:35:01 UTC

The dataset isn’t big enough, so the result isn’t universal

2025-09-15 07:35:03 UTC

may be some other things cause the death

2025-09-15 07:35:03 UTC

The samples are too concentrated

2025-09-15 07:35:03 UTC

Appear at the same time but doesn't mean that fog is the cause

Wu Yixi 3036555879

2025-09-15 07:35:03 UTC

XYY Study Sampling Bias: Drawing a conclusion about a general population from a pre-selected, biased group (prisoners). Confounding Variables, Small Sample Size, Stigmatizing Conclusion

Yuan Qiwen 3036531055

2025-09-15 07:35:03 UTC

Did the Ministry of Health directly link the fog to the cause of death, or is it a statistical correlation? It's also unclear if the deaths were actually caused by conditions related to the fog, such as respiratory issues, or if other factors were involved.

2025-09-15 07:35:06 UTC

No evidence shows that heavy fog causes death

Dai Ruirui

2025-09-15 07:35:08 UTC

Being out of prison is not necessarily less dangerous.

2025-09-15 07:35:08 UTC

The sample size is too small

v9mhs2wx4n — 2025-09-15 07:35:10 UTC

There are other reasons lead to the death

2025-09-15 07:35:12 UTC

the death rate doesn't only related to the fog.

mk27xvct7w — 2025-09-15 07:35:13 UTC

Maybe some data is missing or repeating. The reason of people’s death is hard to confirm. Perhaps it was due to other problems that led to the cause of death.

2025-09-15 07:35:14 UTC

The sample size is not big enough to be representative

LEI XINYI 3036533704

2025-09-15 07:35:14 UTC

there are no evidents that the death increased because of the frog

freyawong — 2025-09-15 07:35:14 UTC

too small sample

2025-09-15 07:35:15 UTC

The increased death rate may not influenced by heavy fog since there can be other factors may be ignored.

2025-09-15 07:35:15 UTC

There may be other causes other than the fog that increases the death rate

The sample size is too small and not representative.

xf2rkkqh4t — 2025-09-15 07:35:15 UTC

the sample size is too small

2025-09-15 07:35:18 UTC

urwinky — 2025-09-15 07:35:19 UTC

the fog is not necessary to cause the death

2025-09-15 07:35:21 UTC

Positively correlated but no evidence of causality that the heavy fog caused the increase in death. There might be other factors.

2025-09-15 07:35:21 UTC

there may be some other reasons

Jessie Wang 3036533510

2025-09-15 07:35:22 UTC

The samples are incomparable , and the sample size is not enough

2025-09-15 07:35:24 UTC

Other causes of death haven’t been considered in this report

2025-09-15 07:35:24 UTC

Previous deaths may have been caused by other causes and have not been measured

2025-09-15 07:35:26 UTC

Only the ‘number of deaths’ is provided, without a denominator (total population) or age-standardised mortality rate. It is impossible to determine whether the risk is increasing or by how much.

Reports focus solely on the ‘worst week’, ignoring the preceding and subsequent periods (regression towards the mean).

2025-09-15 07:35:26 UTC

Sample isn't enough to prove and not select randomly

13539886033 — 2025-09-15 07:35:27 UTC

it can not prove that the deaths is because of heavy frog

13771970310y — 2025-09-15 07:35:27 UTC

The sample size is very small, it cannot be generalised to the population.

Fu Yuancen 3036558223

2025-09-15 07:35:27 UTC

The sample size of 200 was too small, so the conclusion wasn't reliable.

2025-09-15 07:35:30 UTC

The sample is not big enough

It’s not a random sample.

dk9dmqnvrt — 2025-09-15 07:35:31 UTC

z1770383283 — 2025-09-15 07:35:34 UTC

Until an age-standardised, seasonally-adjusted excess mortality analysis links the rise to specific pollutants correlated with the fog episode, the 2 800 figure is not convincing evidence that the fog itself killed 2 800 people.

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xxxta0819 — 2025-09-15 07:35:37 UTC

There may be some mediation effect, not just because of the heavy fog.

2025-09-15 07:35:37 UTC

This confuses correlation with causation by assuming the XYY syndrome causes criminality, while ignoring other factors like socioeconomic status or the possibility that the syndrome's behavioral effects lead to higher arrest rates rather than higher aggression.

3478236346 — 2025-09-15 07:35:37 UTC

The location of the sample was not taken into account.

2025-09-15 07:35:37 UTC

The fog may not be the real reason for the death. There May be other reasons.

zhuocheng0107 — 2025-09-15 07:35:38 UTC

Correlation does not imply causation: the simultaneous occurrence of the two may be influenced by other factors (such as social support, educational background, economic status, medical intervention, etc.), rather than being directly caused by XYY syndrome itself.

2025-09-15 07:35:39 UTC

Correction and causality trap: there is no evidence show the influence of fog

2025-09-15 07:35:39 UTC

The data size is too small and not be collected randomly

Sheng Jialian

2025-09-15 07:35:39 UTC

Sample size is relatively small.

2025-09-15 07:35:40 UTC

The sample size is biased and too small

2025-09-15 07:35:41 UTC

the cause of death may not be the fog

2025-09-15 07:35:42 UTC

no excess-mortality comparison，The claim gives a count without comparing to the expected deaths for the same week in prior years.

z1770383283 — 2025-09-15 07:35:44 UTC

Bottom line: the design is a case–control study without proper ascertainment, matching, or adjustment, so it cannot establish that the extra Y chromosome causes dangerous behaviour.

They just chose samples from the jail, which is too small to persuade people

1056855118 — 2025-09-15 07:35:47 UTC

liduo4399 — 2025-09-15 07:35:48 UTC

The sample is too small

wusiyuan1108 — 2025-09-15 07:35:49 UTC

There may be other reasons caused the deaths, instead of the fog.

HAO BINGJIE 3036531110

a1376205727 — 2025-09-15 07:35:49 UTC

With only 200 men in each group, the sample size is small.

dgoatxz — 2025-09-15 07:35:50 UTC

The sample size was undercovereage.

2025-09-15 07:35:50 UTC

sampling bias

g838359879 — 2025-09-15 07:35:51 UTC

Its just correlation but not equal to causation

2025-09-15 07:35:53 UTC

the sample size is small

2025-09-15 07:35:53 UTC

The sample scale is not big enough.

The sample is not representative and the sample size is small.

2025-09-15 07:35:53 UTC

728550193 — 2025-09-15 07:35:56 UTC

The number concluded outside the prison is too small

v9mhs2wx4n — 2025-09-15 07:35:57 UTC

Small sample size

urwinky — 2025-09-15 07:35:58 UTC

Not enough sample, the sample size is too small

2025-09-15 07:36:00 UTC

The sample size was not big enough.

They only do studies in the prison. It cant represent the idea of male

2025-09-15 07:36:01 UTC

LEI XINYI 3036533704

2025-09-15 07:36:01 UTC

there are sample bias

vmzxznkbm6 — 2025-09-15 07:36:02 UTC

the sample size is small and not random

2025-09-15 07:36:04 UTC

other factors can also be part of the reason of the death such as chronic disease.

2025-09-15 07:36:07 UTC

Not random sampling

sample selected is biased and sample size is not big enough

2025-09-15 07:36:11 UTC

Selection bias.because sampling from prisoners over-represents high-risk individuals, so the groups aren’t representative of the population.

Small sample size

2025-09-15 07:36:13 UTC

3035828475 — 2025-09-15 07:36:17 UTC

Sample size is too small

The sample number is limited

2025-09-15 07:36:17 UTC

Xian Zhenghua 3036530764

2025-09-15 07:36:17 UTC

It was not sure whether the deaths we're caused by the fog

2025-09-15 07:36:20 UTC

How did fog influence London suburbs? It may be some other reason of the increasing death rate.

Liushaotong3036568230 — 2025-09-15 07:36:21 UTC

There is no certain cause and effect relationship between fog and death

2025-09-15 07:36:25 UTC

Treating “whether one is incarcerated” as an inclusion criterion; if XYY and other incarceration-related factors (education, impulse control, social resources) all influence “whether one is incarcerated”, this artificially amplifies the correlation within the “selected cohort”.

Yuan Qiwen 3036531055

2025-09-15 07:36:28 UTC

The researchers conclude that males with XYY syndrome are more dangerous based on their observations of prisoners with this syndrome. However, this is a classic example of confusing correlation with causation. They are assuming that XYY syndrome causes dangerous behavior, but this is not supported by the data presented. The prison population may have other factors that influence dangerous behavior (e.g., socio-economic status, history of trauma, or prior criminal activity), which are not accounted for in this study.

2025-09-15 07:36:30 UTC

XXY syndrome makes people more bad-tempered, which may lead people to commit a crime.

2025-09-15 07:36:31 UTC

The sample size is too small

g838359879 — 2025-09-15 07:36:39 UTC

sample is too small

Sample size too small, can’t support that statement.

2025-09-15 07:36:44 UTC

u3653104 — 2025-09-15 07:36:46 UTC

Sample size is not enough.

2025-09-15 07:36:47 UTC

The sample size is too small.

3036530207

xxxta0819 — 2025-09-15 07:36:52 UTC

The sample size cannot stands for the population.

Yimin Li

2025-09-15 07:37:00 UTC

Fog is not necessarily the reason caused deaths

Sample is not representative

2025-09-15 07:37:01 UTC

2025-09-15 07:37:03 UTC

The influence might not be so quick. There are some ignored factors related to the sharply increased death

1243485088 — 2025-09-15 07:37:10 UTC

There is a problem that the sample is too small, because only 8 XYY patients in prison are selected as samples, and the statistical power is insufficient, and it is easy to produce accidental results.

u3653320 — 2025-09-15 07:37:22 UTC

Small sample size comparing to huge population outside of the prison.

Really random sampling?

Any biases might influence the result?

3036533209

mk27xvct7w — 2025-09-15 07:37:30 UTC

The size of the sample is too small. The absence of a definition of danger. Inferring causality from correlation.

bgwrznnctj — 2025-09-15 07:37:31 UTC

small sample size，it isn‘t random sample

Yimin Li

2025-09-15 07:37:45 UTC

It’s a coalition not a cause

u3653092 — 2025-09-15 07:37:53 UTC

The sample is not big enough.

Fu Yuancen 3036558223

2025-09-15 07:38:02 UTC

The deaths may have many different causes other than the fog.

2025-09-15 07:38:08 UTC

The sample is limited

Xian Zhenghua 3036530764

2025-09-15 07:38:08 UTC

The sample is too small to make the conclusion

2025-09-15 07:38:23 UTC

they need more sample outside jail because there are more people outside jail，200 people is very small percent

13539886033 — 2025-09-15 07:38:46 UTC

it’s sample size is small

2025-09-15 07:39:05 UTC

It can be correlation as well, since the fact that XYY syndrome is not proven to be causing people to commit crimes. The sample is biased as well, since the samples are not random and the sample size is too small.

jiangyinuo0122 — 2025-09-15 07:39:29 UTC

no enough data