My radiant canvas by Katherine Ginsburg

West Virgina

20costelloc — 2018-10-11 15:48:51 UTC

Demographic information

20costelloc — 2018-10-24 16:58:47 UTC

Total Population: 1.816 million (2017)
Female: 50.6%
Male: 49%
Caucasian: 93.5%
African American:3.4%
2 or more races: 1.8%
Asian: .8%
other races: 3%
Registered Voters:( at May 8^th Primary Election) 1,227,600
Party Breakdown:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/wv
http://censusviewer.com/state/WV

Political Representation

20ginsburgk — 2018-10-24 17:08:37 UTC

How state has voted in major elections for the-
Presidential: Republican (Donald Trump)
Senate: Democratic (Joe Manchin)
Gubernatorial: Jim Justice (republican)

20costelloc — 2018-10-24 17:15:17 UTC

Current Governor, Senate, and U.S. House members

20costelloc — 2018-10-24 17:16:43 UTC

Currrent Governor: Jim Justice (Republican) He is an American coal mining and agriculture businessman and politician serving the 36th and current Governor of West Virginia since 2017 (richest man in West Virgina net worth of $1.9 billion)
Current Senator 1:
Joe Manchin (Democratic) who has served since 2010
Current Senator 2: Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) who has served since 2015
Current House Member 1: David Mckinley (Republican) is an American businessman and politician who has been the U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district since 2011
Current House Member 2: Alexander Mooney (Republican) is an Representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district since 2015

http://www.wvlegislature.gov/Senate1/roster.cfm
https://governor.wv.gov/Pages/default.aspx
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/WV

Canidated for Senate Race

20costelloc — 2018-11-01 18:39:35 UTC

Joe Manchin

20costelloc — 2018-11-01 18:42:01 UTC

Democratic Incumbent

Progress leading up to Election Day

20costelloc — 2018-11-07 18:52:42 UTC

November 1 Debate

20costelloc — 2018-11-07 18:56:20 UTC

- Manchin and Morrisey debated everything from healthcare to immigration.
- Morrisey supported Trumps president's tax cuts, his judicial nominations, and his immigration rhetoric, "I'm going to work with this president to cut taxes, to reduce regulations on the hardworking job creators of our state."
- Manchin displayed himself as a bipartisan lawmaker willing to break with his party and work along side the president on important matters.
- Morrisey accused Manchin of supporting “open borders," and being on “both sides” of the Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall and blamed Democrats for a migrant caravan heading for the U.S.-Mexico border. Manchin countered by touting his bipartisan credentials, arguing he supports border security and name dropping Republican senators, including the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who backed the 2013 “Gang of Eight” immigration bill.
-The two candidates spent a good portion of the debate discussing healthcare and the opioid crisis, which has ravaged the state. Both sides tried to claim they supported protecting individuals with pre-existing conditions.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/1/joe-manchin-patrick-morrisey-west-virginia-senate-/

Photo

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-07 18:57:28 UTC

https://cdn.britannica.com/s:300x300/92/150392-004-19647930.jpg

Background

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-07 18:58:20 UTC

He has held his seat consistently since 2010. Not an open seat.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joe-Manchin

Trump visits

20costelloc — 2018-11-07 19:04:34 UTC

Pays final visit to west virgina the day before elections to show his support for Morrisey
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/1/joe-manchin-patrick-morrisey-west-virginia-senate-/

More attention

20costelloc — 2018-11-09 19:31:00 UTC

The West Virgina senate race recived more attention than average because a Democratic is going for reelcection in a state that was Donald Trump (Republicans) second best state in the 2016 election

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/10/23/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-west-virginia/

Stances on issues

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-12 15:31:28 UTC

Health care-
-wanted to repair ObamaCare instead of getting rid of it completely
-supports government run healthcare
Immigration-
-agrees with Donald Trumps views on having all illegal immigrant deported no matter what way
-Did not sue Arizona over immigration enforcement law
Gun Control-
-should be allowed to have guns (very strongly fights for this!)
Abortion-
-Pro-life
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Joe_Manchin_III.htm

Predictions

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:31:51 UTC

There are three candidates in the race; Joe Manchin III who is a Democrat and is the incumbent, Patrick Morrisey is a republican, and Rusty Hollen who is Liberal. According to the website projects.fivethirtyeight.com Joe Manchin III with a 86.9% chance of winning which is a 7 in 8. Patrick Morrisey has a 13.1% chance of winning which is a 1 and 8. Rusty Hollen is not really in the race with only having a 0.1% chance of winning with <1 in 100. Joe Manchin III already has an advantage going to the midterm Elections because he is the incumbent. An incumbent means he served the past term and is running for reelection. The prediction to how the polls are going to turn out are as follows: 8/10 Pollsters will be won by Manchen, one will be tied, and one will be won by Morrissey. Rusty Hollen was not even included because he, for lack of better words, has no chance.

Polling Data Predictions

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:33:03 UTC

- Joe Manchin III with a 86.9% chance of winning which is a 7 in 8
- Patrick Morrisey has a 13.1% chance of winning which is a 1 and 8
- Rusty Hollen is not really in the race with only having a 0.1% chance of winning with <1 in 100.
FiveThirtyEight

Polling Leading up to Election

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:34:07 UTC

8/10 Pollsters will be won by Manchen, one will be tied, and one will be won by Morrissey.
FiveThirtyEight
https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/states/west-virginia

Polling

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:36:17 UTC

In that poll, conducted Oct. 12 to Oct. 19, 52 percent of voters say they back Mr. Manchin, while 36 percent favor Mr. Morrisey.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/west-virginia/

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:41:27 UTC

“While some voters may change their minds in the final weeks of the campaign, Manchin has crossed the 50 percent threshold and appears to be closing the door on his Republican challenger with less than three weeks to go before Election Day,” said James Henson, a partner at Strategic Research Associates, which conducted the poll.

Sources of Funding/ How much made

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-12 15:44:29 UTC

Sources of funding:
-Capital Group
-Mylan Inc
-Capital Group Companies
-Goldman Sachs
-FirstEnergy Sachs
How much made:
-$10,688,261
-Spent: $8,783,357
-Cash on Hand: $3,734,712
https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00032838&cycle=2018&type=C

Attacks made on both sides

20costelloc — 2018-11-12 15:46:54 UTC

-Republicans are hitting Manchin for defending Mylan Pharmaceuticals, where his daughter receives a huge salary (she has been the CEO of Mylan for several years) as her company greatly increases the prices for its EpiPens
-Democrats are attacking Morrisey and his wife for raking in large salaries as lobbyists for the pharmaceutical industry.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/1/joe-manchin-patrick-morrisey-west-virginia-senate-/

source

20costelloc — 2018-11-16 02:09:40 UTC

https://www.270towin.com/states/West_Virginia

Are there any connections to be made between the candidate’s fundraising and their policy positions?

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 03:48:38 UTC

One of his big contributors is Mylan Inc. They sell a type of birth control which could be the reason Manchin is pro-life so that he can keep them in business.
https://www.pharmacytimes.com/resource-centers/womens-health/generic-seasonale-birth-control-launched-by-mylan

Patrick Morrisey

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 03:56:30 UTC

Republican

Photo

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 03:58:34 UTC

https://ago.wv.gov/about/Pages/Meet-The-Attorney-General.aspx

Background

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 04:03:35 UTC

Has been the Attorney General of West Virginia since 2013. Not and incumbent. Not an open seat.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

Stance on issues

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 04:07:21 UTC

Health care-
-Repeal ObamaCare
Immigration-
-Against illegal immigration
Gun Control-
-Goes against the "gun grabbers"
Abortion-
- Overturn Roe v Wade
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Patrick_Morrisey.htm

Sources of funding/ how much made

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 05:11:11 UTC

Sources of funding:
- Capital group
-Mylan Inc
-Goldman Sachs
-Capital group Companies
-Wexford Capital
How much made:
-$4,987,421
-Spent:$ 3,860,592
-Cash on Hand: $1,126,830
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=WVS1
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=WVS1&spec=N

Are there any connections to be made between the candidate’s fundraising and their policy positions?

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 05:22:44 UTC

As one can see he tried to get a lot of the same companies to fund him that funded Manchin which shows that although he wants to be different from him and beat him, he is trying to copy him and get ahead. This is also shown by his similar- not the same and definitely more aggressive- views on major political arguments.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Patrick_Morrisey.htm
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=WVS1
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=WVS1&spec=N

Rusty Hollen

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 05:26:49 UTC

Libertarian

Photo

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:06:09 UTC

https://br-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/192381/thumb_192381.jpg

Background

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:08:33 UTC

He was in the U.S. Army National Guard right out of high school. No political background. Not an incumbent. Not and open seat.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

Stance on issues

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:11:39 UTC

Health care-
-no distinct stance given
Immigration-
-no distinct stance given
Gun Control-
-no restriction
Abortion-
-no distinct stance given
++
Extra information because there was not a lot available:
-Opposed to the income tax regulations
-Opposed to the war on drugs
-Wants more "good paying jobs"
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

Sources of funding/ how much made

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:20:09 UTC

Sources of funding:
-Go fund me (he made one)
How much made:
-$1,940
-other information N/A
https://www.gofundme.com/rusty-hollen-for-us-senate

Are there any connections to be made between the candidate’s fundraising and their policy positions?

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:24:20 UTC

No. He says what he thinks and hope people agree. He does not rely on other companies or any strategy, he just tells people his opinion and hopes they fund his campaign.

Results

20ginsburgk — 2018-11-16 06:47:33 UTC

Joe Manchin III won. This was no surprize. As stated in our prediction, according to projects.fivethirtyeight.com Joe Manchin III has a 86.9% chance of winning. His only real competition was Patrick Morrisey who still only had a 13.1% chance of winning. Rusty Hollen not only had a 0.1% chance of winning, he raised almost 5 MILLION less than Morrisey and almost 9 MILLION less than Joe Manchin in funding for his campaign. What was surprising was how close the it was between Morrisey and Manchin. According to ballotpedia.org Manchin only won by 3.2% more votes (18,936 people).
-
https://www.gofundme.com/rusty-hollen-for-us-senate
https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of- congress/summarycid=N00032838&cycle=2018&type=C
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=WVS1