https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v Probability en-us 2016-10-31 12:26:21 UTC 2016-11-11 14:09:25 UTC hello@padlet.com valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/134443535 The probability of any outcome of a chance process in a number between 0 & 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetition.]]> 2016-11-01 12:31:20 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/134443535 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/134551763 Statisticians recommend random samples & randomized experiments
They avoid bias by letting chance decide who gets selected or who receives which treatment 
Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular & predictable pattern in a long run 
Probability describes what happens in very many trials  & we must actually observe the tosses of a coin or thumbtack to pin down a probability
Law of Large Numbers: If we observe more & more repetitions of any chance process
Probability: the proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches a single value
Outcomes that never occur have probability]]> 2016-11-01 16:55:18 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/134551763 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136369569 Law of Large Numbers: If we observe more and more repetitions of any chance process, the proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches a single value. (Don't apply to a small number of trials)
Probability of any outcome of chance is a number between 0 & 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions.]]> 2016-11-09 13:00:21 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136369569 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136370289 Long-run relative frequency
Predicted percent of successes in a large number of trials
Example: 
The probability of getting a 5 when rolling a dice is 1/6 . Interpret this value.
After a large number of trials, the probability of rolling a 5 would be about 16% .(1/6)]]> 2016-11-09 13:03:01 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136370289 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136371405 Simulation: Imitation of a chance behavior, based on  a model that accurately reflects the situation.
The purpose of a simulation to estimate probabilities when they are difficult to calculate theoretically.
Results of a simulation always give you an approximation.]]> 2016-11-09 13:07:29 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136371405 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136372152 State: Ask a question of interest about some chance process.
Plan: Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one repetition of the process. Tell what you will record at the end of each repetition.
Do: Perform many repetitions of the simulation.
Conclude: Use the results of your simulation to answer the question of interest.]]> 2016-11-09 13:10:15 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136372152 valeriaalv0582 https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136373156 Question: Daniel Murphy of the New York Mets had a home run in 3% of his at-bats during the regular season. As of Game 3 of the NLCS he had 6 home runs in 33 at-bats. Is this evidence of foul play or could this have happened by chance? How likely is it for a player who hits a home run 3% of the time during the regular season to hit 6 or more home runs in 33 at bats?
1) What is the probability that he will hit 6 or more  home runs in 33  at-bats when he hits a homerun 3% of the time?
2) Use a random number table, we will read 33 two digit numbers [one for each at bat]. If a number is 01, 02, or 03 it will represent a home run, all other two digit numbers [04, 99, 00] are not a homerun. Record the number of homeruns]]> 2016-11-09 13:14:13 UTC https://padlet.com/valeriaalv0582/2ta6968yt26v/wish/136373156