ANERR Symposium by Josh Eaton

Greetings!

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-01-20 18:28:15 UTC

Welcome to our networking wall! This space is for giving more information on presentations featured at our research symposium as well as a way to highlight studies and projects that are ongoing at and around the reserve.

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joshuaeaton1 — 2021-01-20 18:35:34 UTC

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Dr. Christopher Anderson - Salinity and Forested Wetlands Along a Tidal Gradient on the Lower Apalachicola River System || Friday 2/19 @ 11:10am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:12:05 UTC

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFWs) commonly occur along coastal rivers, however sea level rise and changes to river flow threaten to severely impact these wetlands. To better assess the vulnerability of TFFWs along the Apalachicola River, a study combining field data and modeling was conducted. Salinity and water level data were collected at six stations established equidistantly along the tidal reach of two distributary rivers (the East River and St. Marks River) in the lower Apalachicola River system. River salinity data and other available long-term data (i.e., bay salinity, bay tidal stage, river discharge) were used to successfully develop artificial neural network (ANN) models and hindcast a 30-year mean daily salinity record (1985-2015) at each station. Results showed predictable upriver decreases in mean salinity and salinity range for both rivers, however the St. Marks River showed a more abrupt transition along the study reach compared to the East River. Salinity model outputs were spatially interpolated along the study reach and compared to wetland forest community data collected along each river. Species importance values for canopy trees were calculated and tallied into groups indicative of tidal and non-tidal conditions based on previous research. Based on survey results, there was a distinct transition of increased non-tidal indicative species midway up the St. Marks River study reach while tidal indicative species remained prominent throughout the East River. Results from this study suggest that tidal flooding may be particularly important to the downriver extent of TFFWs while salinity exposure may induce community shifts.

Dr. Michael J. Starek & Kelsi Schwind - uAS-SFm Surveying of Hurricane Impacts to Little St. George Island || Friday 2/19 @ 9:55am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:13:25 UTC

The Measurement Analytics Lab with the Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) for Surveying and Science at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi has been conducting annual terrestrial lidar and unoccupied aircraft system (UAS) photogrammetric surveys of beach and bay sites along Little St. George Island (LSGI) since 2015. In July of 2018, the team conducted a UAS Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetric survey of the entire Gulf-facing shoreline of LSGI to derive digital elevation models (DEMs) of the exposed beach and foredune complex to monitor its geomorphic evolution. Approximately 92 days after the UAS survey, Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 storm near Mexico City, Florida on October 9, 2018. With maximum sustained winds of 72 m/s and 7.2 m NAVD88 high water marks, it resulted in substantial damage and is the strongest recorded storm to hit the Florida panhandle. Although LSGI was spared a direct hit, the proximity of the landfall resulted in substantial coastal erosion of the beach and foredune system. CBI returned in May 2019 to conduct a follow-up UAS-SfM survey of the beach along LSGI to assess damages and examine impacts. This presentation will provide an overview on the implemented UAS surveying approach as well as on SfM photogrammetry to map and monitor beach evolution. Additionally, the presentation will show how the 2018 and 2019 UAS-SfM survey products are being used to quantify the impact to the subaerial beach and foredune system along LSGI including volumetric change detection, shoreline retreat, and geomorphic feature extraction.

Caitlin Snyder - Mangroves Near a Rapidly Changing Range Limit: Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 9:35am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:14:05 UTC

In coastal wetlands, one of the most striking examples of climate change is the poleward range expansion of mangrove forests in response to warming winters. In North America, the Cedar Key region has often been considered the range limit for mangroves along the western coast of Florida (USA). However, within the past several decades, robust stands of Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle have been observed in the Apalachicola Bay region, which is 200 km northwest of Cedar Key. Here, we combined field surveys, historical records, and analyses of past climate data to examine the distribution and structure of these two mangrove species in the Apalachicola Bay region. Historical records indicate that mangroves have been present for at least 150 years. However, our abundance and structural data indicate that mangroves are currently reaching heights, densities, and reproductive stages not historically reported. Our observations are consistent with species-specific temperature tolerances, but we found a surprisingly broad distribution and high number of R. mangle individuals, which is unlike A. germinans-dominated mangrove range limits in Louisiana and Texas. We show that A. germinans and R. mangle distributions are governed by spatial variation in the frequency of extreme freeze events (i.e., land-ocean temperature gradients), which can be used to spatially depict the risk of mangrove freeze damage. Given the rapid pace of change and the potential for abrupt landscape-scale transformation, our findings reinforce the pressing need to advance understanding of mangrove expansion dynamics near northern range limits in the southeastern United States.

Dr. Michael Osland - Winter Climate Change and the Tropicalization of Coastal Ecosystems || Thursday 2/18 @ 9:55am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:14:30 UTC

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In the Apalachicola Bay region and other tropical-temperate transition zones across North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. For example, the absence of extreme cold events can foster the population growth and range expansion of tropical terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones, with an emphasis on the Apalachicola Bay region. Due to its landscape position near warm Gulf of Mexico waters, the Apalachicola Bay region is expected to serve as a thermal refugium and hot spot for range expansion. Climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species, and there is a need to better assess the ecological implications of the tropicalization of coastal ecosystems in the Apalachicola Bay region.

Dr. Steven Morey - Impacts of river discharge variability on coastal and shelf water properties in and near Apalachicola Bay || Friday 2/19 @ 11:50am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:14:57 UTC

The hydrodynamics in the Apalachicola Bay estuary are governed by a complex system of forcing, including freshwater input from several distributaries of the Apalachicola River, tidal flow with mixed diurnal and semidiurnal periods through multiple inlets, and atmospheric forcing. The riverine and atmospheric forcing exhibit strong variability at daily, seasonal, interannual and longer time scales. This wide range of time scales of variability leads to important regime changes in the Bay’s hydrodynamics and biogeochemical properties that have profound implications not only to the Bay’s ecosystem, but also over a broad area of the west Florida shelf. In this talk, results from analyses of time series of physical variables within the Bay, numerical model experiments, and satellite optical measurements are presented to provide a greater understanding of how the bay and shelf waters respond to variability in riverine and atmospheric forcing. A striking finding is the dominant effects of interannual variability in precipitation over the watershed that are strongly linked with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation climate mode.

Dr. Michael Martinez-Colon - Overview of ongoing projects to assess the environmental health condition of Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 10:50am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:15:19 UTC

The main purpose of this talk is to share with local and state stakeholders the research initiatives currently undertaken in the Environmental Micropaleontology Laboratory at Florida A&M University and most importantly to set the stage for future collaborations. Two projects related to the spatial distribution of heavy metals, meiofauna, and microbial communities in sediments will shed information on current health status conditions and the applicability of using benthic foraminifera as bioindicators. Similarly, two additional projects aim to determine historical (< 100 years) baseline and/or pre-impact conditions of the bay by assessing temporal changes in pollutants (heavy metals and agrochemicals) from sediment cores. The use the Foram-AMBI as a biotic index will be tested as a “paleo-” environmental health status indicator. Two newer projects related to microplastic pollution will determine “hotspots” of plastic generation within the Apalachicola river drainage basin and how these pollutants move through the food chain/web of fish.

Dr. Steve Leitman - How will climate variability affect flow and reservoir elevations in ACF watershed? || Friday 2/19 @ 10:15am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:17:14 UTC

The ACF basin has a low ratio of reservoir storage to flow. Of the two primary sub-basins that feed the Apalachicola River, the Flint River has no storage capacity and 2/3 of the Chattahoochee Basin’s storage capacity is in Lake Lanier which is in the upper reach of the basin. Consequently, climate has a major influence on the flow ultimately reaching Apalachicola Bay. To address this issue, 100 plausible flow scenarios, which differed in consideration of extremes (e.g., multi-year drought and large floods), were stochastically generated based on the historical data in the watershed on a reach-by-reach basis and all these scenarios were fed into the ACF STELLA model with the same reservoir operating rules and the same volume of consumptive demands. The primary question that was sought to address was how resilient are the ACF basin reservoir operation rules with respect to increased variability in streamflow (i.e., floods exceeding magnitudes of the observed series and droughts with durations longer than those observed in the past)? This presentation will provide the results of these simulation runs with respect to Jim Woodruff outflow.

Dr. Margaret Lamont - Movements of Green Turtles (Chelonia mydas) that nest along the Northwest Florida coast || Friday 2/19 Breakout A @ 3:05pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:17:51 UTC

As the climate warms, tropical species have expanded their range, including green turtles, which have recently been documented nesting as far north as Delaware. This range expansion has also been observed in the northern Gulf of Mexico where green turtles are considered rare nesters. As such, little is known about the individuals that nest in the region. As part of a long-term sea turtle nesting program, we have tagged and tracked green turtles nesting at two beaches in Northwest Florida. From 1995 through 2020, we documented 52 green turtle nests on the southern half of the St. Joseph Peninsula. Most nests have been documented in June (44.8%) and July (44.8%) with an additional 10.3% of nests recorded in August. Mean clutch size for all inventoried green turtle nests was 107 eggs. We have marked 30 individual green turtles from 2008-2020 and have deployed satellite tags on 13 individuals, including one adult male. Mean size of tracked turtles was 100.0 cm and we tracked these individuals for a mean of 95 days. All tracked turtles established foraging areas in the waters surrounding the Florida Keys except one individual who migrated to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Seven of the tracked individuals used waters within ANERR either during the internesting period and/or during post-nesting migration. Of those 7, three appeared to nest within the Reserve on Little St. George Island, during the tracking period.

Megan Lamb - Apalachicola Bay Zooplankton Communities and Linkages to Nutrient Inputs and Primary Productivity || Thursday 2/18 @ 11:30am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:19:19 UTC

The Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve (ANERR) has initiated a long-term zooplankton monitoring project to fill a gap in our study of trophic dynamics of the bay. Representing secondary producers, zooplankton monitoring will link ongoing long-term study of nutrient levels, primary production, and higher trophic level nekton monitoring programs already in place at the reserve. The Apalachicola Bay system is a large, productive subtropical estuary responsible for a significant percentage of the freshwater discharge on the Florida west coast. ANERR has collected nutrient and chlorophyll-a data monthly since 2002 and initiated zooplankton sampling in 2016. Analysis of the long-term nutrient and chlorophyll-a information indicates sites in the river, upper, middle, lower bays, and offshore area show distinct geographical groupings driven by environmental factors, especially salinity and chlorophyll-a. Spatial patterns observed in the nutrient and chlorophyll-a analysis allow us to predict we will see similar patterns in zooplankton communities. Preliminary zooplankton analysis shows zooplankton in the bay is dominated by copepods, especially Acartia tonsa and Oithona colcarva. While zooplankton community distribution shows distinct communities in the river and offshore like those observed in the nutrient and pigment data, there is only evidence for two statistically distinct regions of zooplankton communities in the bay thus far. Future analysis will include more temporal zooplankton information and link community distribution with environmental information.

Dr. Chris Kinkade - Introduction to the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve || Thursday @ 9:10am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:19:44 UTC

The Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve is one of a national network of 29 coastal sites designated to protect and study estuarine systems. Established through the Coastal Zone Management Act, the reserves represent a partnership program between NOAA and the coastal states. The NERRS System-Wide Monitoring Program (or SWMP) provides long-term data on water quality, weather, biological communities, habitat, land use, and land-cover characteristics. The standardized instrumentation and data collection protocols allow the delivery of near real-time data, from each of the reserve sites, that are uniform, consistent, and reliable. With a focus on the information most needed for coastal community management, reserve research delves into ecosystem impacts from development, climate change, invasive species, storms, and other change agents on local, regional and national levels.

Dr. Ken Jones - Estimating flows through East River and the impact on East Bay || Friday 2/19 @ 10:50am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:20:31 UTC

The main stem of the Apalachicola River is the largest freshwater contributor to the bay however East River and St. Marks distributaries siphons a substantial amount of the total flow and directs this freshwater to East Bay. Many of the hydrodynamic modeling efforts conducted in the past to determination physical characteristics of Apalachicola Bay have only used the main stem as the freshwater source and ignored the distribution and timing of the waters as they flow through the distributaries. Ignoring the bifurcation of the river flow loses the resultant interactions between Apalachicola and East Bay. To complicate this further, the upper two miles of the East River have been choked off due to sediment deposition from the Apalachicola River. The Apalachicola Bay and Riverkeeper (ARK) has proposed a project to excavate the accumulated sediments from East River and again allow the full volume of water to flow through East River and increase the flow into upper East Bay. The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation has funded this project. Hydrodynamic modeling of East River and the distributaries will be used to test this hypothesis by simulating appropriate channel templets through this reach. The results will allow us to determine how much opening this channel may change the flow characteristic of the distributaries. The upper areas of East Bay is a critical productivity area of the bay system. ARK is collaborating with the ABSI modelling team on this effort. The ARK team has conducted surveys to field verify the data being used by ABSI. A detailed survey has also been conducted down the East River which will be used to define the “pre-condition” in the model and allow the team to test multiple channel templates.

Carrie Jones - Shellfish Aquaculture || Thursday 2/18 @ 1:40pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:21:00 UTC

After much public interest, a new Aquaculture Use Zone (AUZ) with 38 parcels, 1.5-acres each, are in the process of execution in Apalachicola Bay. The AUZ is located at '4 mile', near Green Point in the Northwest section of the bay. Leaseholders will be growing oysters in floating cages or suspended systems. Aquaculture is rapidly growing and a key solution to meet the increasing global seafood demand, conserve wild fisheries and feed a growing population.

Dr. Charles Jagoe - An assessment of water quality and nitrogen bio-extraction in North Florida oyster aquaculture leases || Friday 2/19 @ 1:40pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:21:35 UTC

Oyster aquaculture is growing to meet consumer demand given the decline of wild populations. Aquaculture operations can improve water quality, removing organic matter that causes hypoxic conditions and mitigating nutrient loading from terrestrial runoff. Also, as filter feeders, oysters accumulate microorganisms in mucosa and digestive organs, and gut organs and reef sediments are potential hotspots for microbial denitrification, However, information on the oyster- microbiome and its role in biogeochemical processes such as denitrification is scarce. Small-scale oyster aquaculture began in Wakulla County, FL in 2014; partnering with newly-established growers and an aquaculture training program, we assessed water quality and nitrogen bio-extraction over time associated with developing oyster farming businesses in this area. Growth rates and oyster density were used to parameterize an existing model (Farm Aquaculture Resource Model), which estimated N removal rates (via assimilation into tissue and shell) in this area at 3200-3900 kg N acre-1 year-1 Analyses of tissues collected at different growth points show that the model significantly overestimated N removal in this environment. We also applied 16S rRNA based metagenomics and functional genomics to compare microbiomes of diploid vs. triploid oysters from these aquaculture operations over multiple seasons. Dominant phyla were Proteobacteria followed by Firmicutes, and diploid and triploid oysters were not significantly different. Microbial diversity differed significantly among seasons, especially between fall 2016 and fall 2017 (post Hurricane Irma).

Rick Harter - Franklin 98: Nearshore Reefs to Stabilize Shoreline Along Highway 98 || Friday 2/19 @ 9:35am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:22:01 UTC

For approximately 12 miles between Eastpoint and Carrabelle, much of Highway 98 lies immediately adjacent to the water’s edge. Due to chronic erosion along this shoreline, and the importance of this roadway as a designated Hurricane Evacuation Route, millions of dollars have been spent trying to protect the roadway from erosion damage. Through this project, the installation of nearshore reefs will help attenuate wave energy through their increased elevation and rough surface, which will create a calmer wave environment landward of the reefs. These reefs will become colonized with various marine species, including oysters, which will help serve as a source of larval oysters for other parts of the bay. These reefs will allow intertidal marshes to flourish. Once a healthy intertidal marsh community is established, the marsh plants themselves will also stabilize the shoreline and help capture sediments, further stabilizing the coastline and helping to protect vulnerable upland infrastructure. To assess project performance, monitoring will be conducted over five years to provide a before/after comparison. Some portions of the project study area where no restoration is included in the final design will serve as experimental control sites. Upon completion of the post-construction monitoring, scientists will conduct a full analysis and interpretation of the data using a before/after and control/impact (BACI) approach.

Dr. Scott C. Hagen - A Decade of Progress on Assessing the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise at the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve || Friday 2/19 Breakout B @ 2:20pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:22:30 UTC

This presentation will provide a broad overview of our collaborative efforts with the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve to assess the effects of sea level rise at the ANERR and throughout the Big Bend region. For more than a decade now we have worked to advance sea level rise research at the coastal land-margin and in the process to move away from bathtub modeling. This paradigm shift to the coastal dynamics of sea level rise began with the development and application of high-definition astronomic tide and hurricane storm surge models. The rigorous assessment of present and future conditions includes coastal morphology, marsh evolution, land use land cover changes, future projections of rainfall for basin runoff and overland sediment transport – all guided by a common goal of enhancing the resilience of this coupled natural and human system. Our most recent efforts include ecosystem services assessment of natural and nature-based features. From the initial research stages and with steadfast communication we have worked directly with the ANERR staff and other coastal stakeholders to produce transdisciplinary research outcomes.

Dr. Natalie Geyer - Small-Scale Flow Has Large Effect on Phytoplankton Communities in Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 11:50am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:22:57 UTC

In shallow estuarine environments, time scales of flows associated with wind and tides often are significantly shorter than the phytoplankton reproduction cycles. Consequently, physical processes dominate the distribution of the phytoplankton, but these processes and their dynamics are not well understood. Here we used flow measurements with a bottom mounted ADCP, shipboard hydrographic transects, drifter releases, and Rhodamine dye to characterize the small-scale flow environment and its effect on dispersion processes in Apalachicola Bay, Florida. The ADCP data revealed the presence of a vertically sheared flow that was strongly modulated by tides and bottom topography. Tidal flows had a characteristic magnitude of 20 – 40 cm s-1, with durations of flow reversals between the near-surface and bottom flows. Drifter triplets indicated shear and strain rates on the order of 10-3 – 10-4 s-1, and single particle dispersion rates (diffusivity) of 0.1 m2 s-1. The area evolution of the dye patch observed by a drone corresponded to eddy diffusivity comparable to those estimated from drifters, or about 0.1 m2 s-1. The dye patch experiments explained how physical processes at scales of 1-100 m can affect the movement and shape of phytoplankton patches in the bay. Observations show that density fronts act as boundaries in the water column and vertical shear separates and transports different depths of a patch in opposite directions. The results suggest that the small-scale flow environment in estuaries can be pivotal in controlling the development or decay of phytoplankton communities.

Jason Garwood - Long-term Ecological Monitoring Highlights Changes in Nekton Communities in a Northern Gulf of Mexico Estuary || Friday 2/19 @ 1:00pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:23:26 UTC

The Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve has conducted system-wide biological monitoring for over 20 years. These efforts provide data to describe long-term temporal and spatial characteristics of the nekton communities found in Apalachicola Bay, Florida, USA. Juvenile nekton were sampled using a modified trawl net at various sampling locations throughout the Bay. We analyzed these data using multivariate techniques to better understand what drives the patterns of occurrence in the system. Water temperature was the predominant factor driving seasonal nekton community structure. Variation in spatial patterns in nekton communities were driven by differences in salinity, temperature and dissolved oxygen. Freshwater inflow from Apalachicola River was a predominant influence on bay salinity. Within-site differences in salinities demonstrated that reduction in river flow has the potential to significantly impact nekton community structure in the bay. Increasing seasonal temperatures highlight implications for effects of climate change on estuarine-dependent fishes and invertebrate assemblages in subtropical estuarine systems. Additionally, both climate induced droughts and human induced reduction in freshwater flows into the system highlights management implications and the importance for maintenance of sufficient flows for estuarine nursery areas.

Dr. Andy Gannon - Monitoring Impacts of Freshwater Flow and Salinity on Blue Crab Populations in Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 1:20pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:23:57 UTC

Decreased freshwater input and the subsequent increase in salinity throughout Apalachicola Bay poses a threat to estuarine species such as the blue crab whose migration and reproduction is sensitive to salinity. The Apalachicola Slough Restoration Project was funded by NFWF to restore connectivity of blocked distributaries and increase freshwater and nutrient inflow to nursery areas of the bay. Prior to its implementation data on blue crabs collected by the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve (ANERR) and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s Fisheries Independent Monitoring (FIM) sampling programs are being analyzed to establish baseline characteristics of the blue crab population in Apalachicola Bay from 1998-2020. Preliminary conclusions are that the blue crab population fluctuates greatly year-to-year with no significant trend up or down over the last two decades and that the distribution of crab juveniles and adults within the bay is inversely correlated with bottom salinity, highlighting the importance of freshwater input. Blue crabs are hosts to multiple species of barnacles that can have detrimental impacts to them. Crabs collected by ANERR and FIM sampling and by commercial crabbers have been examined for barnacles beginning in 2017. Blue crabs collected from higher salinity waters are more frequently and more heavily infested with symbiotic barnacles and crabs from low salinity waters are not infested. Increasing nutrient and freshwater input to the estuary could impact the crab and barnacle populations and they will continue to be analyzed after implementation of the Apalachicola Slough Restoration Project as part of its monitoring program.

Jim Estes - Apalachicola Bay Oster Restoration Phase II || Thursday 2/18 @ 2:40pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:24:22 UTC

Since 2012 the historic commercial oyster fishery and populations of oysters in Apalachicola Bay have decreased by more than 95% based on population monitoring and the landings of oysters in the area. While there are a variety of cascading events that have been blamed on this collapse, some of the restoration needs seem to be clear. Most of the natural substrate needed for oyster settlement, growth and survival is gone. Additionally, because of the collapse of the adult oyster populations, it appears that oyster spat may be spatially limited. The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation has committed $20 million of funding for oyster restoration in Apalachicola Bay. In addition, Florida State University (FSU) has received an $8 million grant from the Triumph Gulf Coast Board of Directors. Additionally, FSU has committed another $1.5 million to work with stakeholders to develop an oyster restoration and management plan. These two programs will be providing synergistic projects and community outreach to restore the oyster populations and the commercial fishery. This presentation will focus on the current situation, and a discussion of projects that will be conducted to conduct this restoration in multiple phases: (1) data collection and analyses to inform decisions about locations, heights and materials for habitat enhancements; (2) stakeholder input on restoration; (3) decisions about restoration; and (4) habitat restoration. Additionally, a stakeholder involved plan about how to manage the fishery once restoration is successful will be developed.

Diana Del Angel - Economic Impact Analysis of Storm Flooding under Sea Level Rise || Friday 2/19 Breakout B @ 2:50pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:24:50 UTC

Storm surge flooding can cause significant damage to coastal communities. For example, major hurricanes like Katrina, Sandy, and Harvey have generated over $100 Billion in damages. Coastal communities face an increased risk of coastal hazards as a result of sea-level rise (SLR). SLR modeling in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) shows that the 100-year floodplain expands into new regions by the end of the century. Also, in some areas of the NGOM, the present-day 500-year return period is likely to become a 100-year event under 0.5 m of SLR, thus increasing the probability of catastrophic flooding. Considering the cost and the social and health impacts of coastal floods, it is of great interest to plan for and increase coastal resilience. This work assessed the socio-economic impact of a 1% and 0.2% annual return storm surge under 4 SLR scenarios. Assessment methods primarily used HAZUS-MH software, a GIS-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to estimate the physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes. Economic impact analysis focused on buildings, essential facilities, vehicles, roads, and crops. This presentation will present results for Franklin County, Florida.

Matthew Davis - Oyster Monitoring in Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 2:00pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:25:12 UTC

Oyster populations in Apalachicola experienced a decline beginning in the mid-2000s, and a Federal Fisheries Disaster was declared in 2013. In 2015, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) received funding to establish a long-term oyster monitoring program in the area. Monitoring stations were established on fifteen historic oyster reefs throughout Apalachicola Bay. At each station, FWC staff monitor oyster recruitment and oyster density. Over the past six years both recruitment rates and oyster densities have continued to decline. Data from these monitoring efforts are communicated to FWC’s Fisheries Management to inform management decisions and restoration efforts.

Renee Collini - Next Steps: Transitioning ESLR Data into Application || Friday 2/19 Breakout B @ 3:15pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:25:38 UTC

This interactive presentation will follow the suite of presentations on the EESLR-NGOM and NGOM+N2E2 research projects. Representing a paradigm-shifting enhancement in coastal research and modeling, these projects have generated products and data that can be integrated into a wide range of coastal decisions from community planning to restoration. These data and products provide unique access to advanced modeling to improve coastal resilience and adaptation to rising seas. The presentation will cover a suite of resources that have been developed to facilitate understanding of, sharing of, and access to the variety of data and data products. This will include short demos, case studies of how others have used these data, and a sneak peek at upcoming outputs.

Daniel Catizone - Chelonian Diversity in the Florida Panhandle || Friday 2/19 Breakout A @ 2:50pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:26:01 UTC

The southeastern United States represents a global hotspot for chelonian diversity. In particular, the panhandle region of Florida supports many understudied populations. Many populations are found along the coastal barrier island system that extends throughout the region. These coastal regions are also subject to anthropomorphic impacts such as development, pollution, and debris. Our research looks to characterize the populations of Gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), Ornate diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin macrospilota), and Gulf coast box turtle (Terrapene carolina major) that inhabit these coastal barrier systems. For each species we are examining the population structure and size which involves the capture and marking of individuals. Tortoises are being studied at four sites where 98 burrows have been identified. Thirty-two tortoises have been located via burrow scoping, 12 of which have been captured and marked. Terrapins have been identified and marked at five of seven sites, with 729 individuals being tagged in the last four years. Finally, box turtles have been marked in two of the seven coastal panhandle counties as part of an ongoing citizen science project, partnering with the Bay County Box Turtle Project. To date, we have added 32 box turtles in Gulf County to the overall project. One of our sites, Little Saint George Island (LSGI), has produced 16 of the 98 tortoise burrows identified. Sighting of box turtles and terrapins have been made on LSGI and tagging efforts are expected to start in 2021.

Dr. Ed Camp - Shell Games: Monitoring Oyster Harvest || Thursday 2/18 @ 3:05pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:26:26 UTC

Oysters are arguably the most important managed living resource in the Florida’s Gulf of Mexico, because they filter water, provide structural habitat for myriad animals, engineer and maintain estuaries, protect humans from storms and sea level rise, and have for a long time sustained capture fisheries. However, oysters populations now appear to be faltering, and recent fishery collapses provide little sign of recovery. Preventing further erosion of oyster-based ecosystem services likely will require an altered governance system, but implementing such change is hampered by stakeholder conflicts and the uniquely unforgiving nature of oyster population dynamics. I describe several alternative approaches to effective governance change that could be pursued, and why each may fail. Using concepts of ecological resilience, I then attempt to characterize the likely prerequisites for socially and politically acceptable change that also could yield desired ecological and environmental outcomes. What I show is that reasonably effective management will almost certainly require better coordination between management agencies and stakeholders, such as participatory management processes or co-management. While such approaches may be popular, they do not guarantee success, as they could fail in several important ways.

Dr. Josh Breithaupt - Relating Carbon to Organic Matter in Mangrove Soils: From the Florida Keys to St. Augustine & Apalachicola Bay || Thursday 2/18 @ 10:15am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:26:50 UTC

Loss-on-ignition is a procedure used to quantify soil organic matter (SOM) content by measuring the mass of a dry sample before and after combustion. Organic carbon (OC) is the largest mass constituent of SOM, and equations relating OC to SOM have been developed for many soil types. A robust equation is not available for mangrove soils. In this study we evaluated the relationship between OC and SOM in mangrove soils from 10 regions spanning 5 degrees of latitude in Florida with the objective of providing a robust equation that can be applied in environments of varying SOM content. Organic carbon represented 50.6% of SOM across all sites (R2=0.941). Although Craft et al. (1991) identified a quadratic relationship between OC and SOM for salt marshes, such a relationship provided no additional explanation of the variability in mangrove soils. However, when separate equations were derived based on total SOM, the OC content of SOM increased from 46.5% and 49.9% for soils with SOM ≤60%, to 64.5% for soils with SOM >60%. The OC content of SOM was even higher (87.9%) in samples from > 1 m deep in the lower Florida Keys. Our data indicate that OC:SOM is negatively correlated with latitude and positively correlated with mean annual temperature (R2 of 0.643 and 0.581, respectively). Additionally, C:N trends indicated more N-depleted soils at the lower latitude sites. Tropicalization and increased warming are likely to increase N mineralization in north Florida mangrove soils, compounding concerns in places like Apalachicola Bay where diminished oyster populations have less capacity for filtering nutrients from coastal waters.

Margarette Bayron-Arcelay - Seasonal Water Quality and Benthic Foraminifera || Thursday 2/18 @ 11:10am

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:27:22 UTC

Apalachicola Bay, Florida is a river-dominated estuary that receives freshwater inflows from the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin via the Apalachicola River. Freshwater discharge in Apalachicola Bay is a major contributing factor affecting the water and sediment quality. Seasonality on estuaries is characterized by the amount of freshwater discharge from the river into the estuary. Thus, freshwater inflow (i.e., river discharge) between wet and dry season plays an important role in the health of the estuary. Therefore, the goal of this research is to understand and compare the effects of seasonal water quality conditions on estuarine using benthic foraminifera (BF) as a cost-effective ecological bioindicator tool. During this study, we collected a total of 22 sediment samples and 22 water samples for both wet season (WS) and dry season (DS) in Apalachicola Bay, Fl. Each sediment sample was sorted for BF, and analyzed for grain size, and TOC. Water samples were analyzed for NH3, PO43-, NO2-, NO3-, POC. In addition, the Shannon Diversity Index (SDI), Equality (Evenness), the Foram Stress Index (FSI), and the Ammonia-Elphidium Index (AEI) was applied. In general, the FSI (x̅: 1.32-1.42) indicated azoic conditions followed by moderately polluted stations for both seasons; and the AEI (x̅: 38.55-59.24) indicated hypoxic conditions on the majority of the stations for both seasons. AEI values were higher in WS. NH3 (21.60µM) and NO2- (0.06 µM), concentrations were higher during WS. In contrast, NO3- (50.39 µM) concentration was higher during DS. However, PO43-, were not statistically significant between seasons. These results are consistent with the most abundant taxa in the sediment samples. BF assemblage were dominated by Ammonia sp. Elphidium sp., and Haynesina sp. which are an ecological response to high amounts of NH4+ (0.07-193.4 µM), and POC (0.16-0.71g) in the water column coupled with relative high amounts of sedimentary TOC (0.25-13.26%).

Kira Allen - Effects of Changing Salinity Regimes on the Apalachicola Bay Food Web || Friday 2/19 @ 1:20pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:28:31 UTC

Apalachicola Bay serves as an important nursery habitat for many commercially and ecologically valuable species, but the fisheries in the region and the ecosystem health will likely be impacted by anticipated changes in the salinity regimes. Proposed reduction in freshwater inflow coupled with ongoing sea level rise could result in a significant increase in Apalachicola Bay salinity. A generalized linear modeling approach was used to investigate how a reduction in Apalachicola River flow and an increase in sea level may impact the biomass of three Apalachicola Bay species (White Shrimp, Blue Crab and Menhaden) up until the year 2050. Results indicated declines in White Shrimp and Blue Crab biomass, while Menhaden biomass increased. These findings serve as a preliminary analysis as part of an ecosystem-level study examining the effects of changing salinity regimes on Apalachicola Bay food web dynamics.

Dr. Karim Alizad - Vulnerability of Microtidal estuaries to sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change || Friday 2/19 Breakout B @ 2:35pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-15 13:28:51 UTC

Microtidal estuaries are more vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change effects than other types of estuaries (Osland et al.-PLoS ONE, 2017-Alizad et al.-PLoS ONE, 2018). The Gulf of Mexico is one of these microtidal environments that modeling efforts are guiding many restoration activities. The Apalachicola microtidal fluvial estuary in the Gulf of Mexico was shown as one of the most vulnerable ones in this region (Alizad et al.-Earth’s Future, 2016), and assessing its resources and their deterioration process can provide stakeholders with some potential solutions for restoration. This work presents future projections of the Apalachicola wetland system using a hydrodynamic model in the Apalachicola-Big-Bend (ABB) region of Northwest Florida. This model was incorporated to assess wetlands in this microtidal system employing the integrated Hydro-MEM model (Alizad et al.-Ecological Modeling, 2016). This dynamic projection using adjusted topography in marsh systems includes two geographic longitudinal degrees wide with varying tide ranges. The Hydro-MEM results demonstrate low and high marsh zonation as well as their productivity and migration path using three NOAA SLR scenarios (Sweet et al., 2017) of intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate (1.0 m), and intermediate-high (1.5 m).

David A. Gandy - Florida’s Fisheries-Independent Monitoring Program in Apalachicola Bay and Red Drum Nursery Habitat Use || Thursday 2/18 @ 1:00pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-17 15:35:19 UTC

The Fish and Wildlife Research Institute’s Fisheries-Independent Monitoring (FIM) program conducts long term monitoring of fishery resources in Florida’s major estuarine, coastal, and reef systems and provides timely information for fisheries management. This talk provides an overview of FIM in Apalachicola Bay since its establishment in 1998 and will highlight use of FIM data to assess nursery habitat of the estuarine-dependent sportfish Red Drum. Although prior studies have documented the importance of seagrasses, salt marshes, and oligohaline backwater areas as important nurseries for Red Drum, little is known about microhabitat use and the factors that influence nursery quality. We used a spatially-explicit hot spot analysis to identify essential nursery habitat throughout Apalachicola Bay and classification and regression trees (CART) to model the environmental conditions that affect nursery quality to determine how habitat use and suitability change through ontogeny during their first-year of life. Nursery hot spots primarily occurred near shallow backwater environments including small tidal creeks and fringing marshes, but hot spot distribution varied in size as YOYs transitioned to age-1 fish. Salinity was one of the best predictors of occurrence, and the size of Red Drum varied with salinity ranges. Red Drum YOY preferred oligohaline to mesohaline waters, while older fish transitioning to age-1 preferred polyhaline waters. Our study provides identification of optimal Red Drum nursery habitat in Apalachicola Bay that will be essential to regional management under future environmental and restoration scenarios.

Dr. Sandra Brooke - The Apalachicola Bay System Initiative || Thursday 2/18 @ 2:20pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-17 15:37:03 UTC

The oyster fishery in Apalachicola Bay collapsed in 2012, and in 2013, was declared a Federal Fishery Disaster. Despite significant restoration efforts, oyster populations have continued to decline, and in December 2020 the Apalachicola Bay oyster fishery was closed for 5 years. The Apalachicola Bay System Initiative (ABSI) began in spring 2019 with funding from Triumph Gulf Coast Inc, and Florida State University. One of the primary objectives of the ABSI is to use multidisciplinary research to understand the causes of the oyster population decline, and why they have not recovered, despite habitat replenishment and several years of good rainfall. Information generated by the research will be used to create decision support tools for resource management and restoration practitioners. The ABSI Community Advisory Board (CAB) is comprised of a broad group of local stakeholders and is a critical component of the project. This group advises on a number of ABSI related issues and will consider the management and restoration alternatives generated through ABSI research. This presentation will provide an overview of the ABSI structure and objectives, and will present the research currently underway, as well as plans for the future. The CAB and other community outreach efforts will be discussed, as well as a timeline for development of management and restoration plans.

Raya Pruner - Banding: An Important Tool for Shorebird Conservation || Friday 2/19 Breakout A @ 2:35pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-17 15:47:14 UTC

Have you ever wondered why researchers band birds? If you have ever observed a bird with a lightweight metal or plastic ring on its leg, you’ve probably asked this question. Tracking and assessing observations of individually marked birds over time provides valuable information on their movements, behavior, survival but it is also a valuable tool in conservation. Coastal habitats are naturally dynamic environments, but they also experience pressure from human population growth and climate change, leading to frequent detrimental pressures to coastal environments and coastal-dependent species. Consequently, there is little undeveloped beach habitat remaining and what does remain is often degraded to the detriment of coastal species, such as beach-nesting shorebirds. Shorebirds in Florida face a suite of challenges that impact population stability and growth. With observations of banded birds and the assessment of band resight data, we can understand what birds need, learn where to focus conservation efforts, track the health of populations, and make informed management decisions.

Dr. Paul Thurman - Enhanced Data Collection Efforts for Apalachicola Bay and St. Joseph Bay || Friday 2/19 Breakout A @ 2:20pm

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-17 16:10:22 UTC

Changes in the health and ecology of Apalachicola Bay and St. Joseph Bay in Gulf and Franklin counties, Florida, have been reported over the past several decades, prompting elevated public concern. Limited data exist concerning salinity patterns and freshwater flows into and potentially between these bays and their associated estuaries resulting in the Northwest Florida Water Management District, in cooperation with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and U.S. Geological Survey, initiating widespread efforts to improve the understanding of processes which may be affecting Apalachicola Bay, St. Joseph Bay, and St. Andrew Bay. These data collection efforts include the instrumentation of multiple discharge monitoring stations, additional discrete discharge sampling events, and salinity monitoring in Lake Wimico. These efforts, in conjunction with those being completed by other cooperating agencies, will help to define management strategies to protect these important water resources. Data collection at these locations is underway and is currently in the early stages.

---FRIDAY---

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-18 13:09:43 UTC

---THURSDAY---

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-18 13:09:58 UTC

---BREAKOUT A || LISTED SPECIES/COASTAL HABITATS---

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-18 13:16:21 UTC

---BREAKOUT B || CLIMATE CHANGE/SEA LEVEL RISE---

joshuaeaton1 — 2021-02-18 13:18:50 UTC

Nick Vitale

2021-02-19 20:09:28 UTC

Loss of Coastal Islands along Florida's Big Bend: Implications for Breeding American Oystercatchers Friday, 2:20-2:35pm