Midterm Election Analysis by https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z Sydney Wallace, Sam Lodinger, Ryan Lee en-us 2018-11-02 15:11:41 UTC 2026-01-28 12:10:56 UTC hello@padlet.com MIke Bost sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833803
  • Republican
  • Incumbent
  • Won primary with 83.5% of votes
  • 1st elected in 2014 then re-elected in 2016 to the House of Reps
  • Previous member of the Illinois House of Reps- District 115 (1995-2014)
  • Treasurer Murphysboro Township
  • Marine Corps 1979- 1982
  • Created a nail salon business with his wife
  • Moderate Republican
    • ]]>     2018-11-02 15:15:50 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833803     Brendan Kelly sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833891
  • Democrat
  • Won primary with 80.9% of votes
  • St. Clair County state's attorney
  • Officer in the Navy
  • Served as assistant state attorney
  • First time running for congress
  • Very moderate, willing to defy party to stay moderate

    • ]]>     2018-11-02 15:15:59 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833891     Randy Auxier sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833941
  • Green
  • First time running
  • No political background
  • Deputy Chief Editor, Edios, present
  • Professor at Oklahoma City University 1992-2000
    • ]]>     2018-11-02 15:16:06 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299833941     Demographics sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299838610
  • Race:79% White, 17.1% Black, 1.1% Asian
  • 48.9% Male, 51.1% Female
  • Unemployment: 9.7%
  • Median household income:$42,181
  • High school graduation rate: 88.4%
  • College graduation rate 20.9%
    • Voter turnout 2016: 313,002/713,289

    ]]>     2018-11-02 15:23:19 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299838610     Registration Information sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299838779
  • Online registration is allowed
  • Must register 27 days before the election
  • Can vote by mail
  • Must have 2 forms of ID, one having a photo and one having your current address
  • Early voting is allowed
    • ]]>     2018-11-02 15:23:42 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299838779     Politics of the Race sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299840132
  • Clinton won the state of Illinois
  • Trump won the  Illinois 12th district

    • Campaign Spending
      • last reported 10-17-18
    • Bost: $2,371,973
    • Kelly: $3,031,985
    • Auxier: $12,774

    • Endorsements for Bost
    • A Brotherhood Aimed Toward Education; A.B.A.T.E. of Illinois
    • American Federation of Government Employees
    • Campaign for Working Families
    • Illinois Federation for Right to Life
    • National Rifle Association
    • Republican Main Street Partnership

    • Endorsements for Kelly
    • Blue Dog Coalition
    • Communications Workers of America
    • Council for a Livable World
    • End Citizens United
    • Illinois AFL-CIO
    • Illinois Sierra Club
    • League of Conservation Voters
    • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
    • New Democrat Coalition
    • Planned Parenthood Action Fund
    • Planned Parenthood Illinois Action
    • Sierra Club
    • United Auto Workers
    • VoteVets.org

    • Endorsements for Auxier
    • Independent Voters of Illinois

    • NY Times 
    • Oct. 18-22, 2018
    • 48% Republican, 39% Democrat, 11% Undecided 
    • Sample size 502 people
    • Margin of error: Bost +9
    • ABC News (Global Strategy Group)
    • July 26-30, 2018
    • 50% Republican, 41% Democrat, 9% Undecided 
    • Sample size 400 people
    • Margin of error: Bost +9
    • ABC News (DCCC)
    • Sept. 26-27, 2018
    • 46% Republican, 44% Democrat, 10% Undecided
    • Sample size 574 people
    • Margin of error: Bost +2
    ]]>     2018-11-02 15:26:04 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/299840132     sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224244 2018-11-04 18:34:17 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224244 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224287 2018-11-04 18:34:35 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224287 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224330 2018-11-04 18:34:55 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224330 Ted Cruz sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224520
  • Republican
  • Incumbent
  • Won primary with 85.3% of votes (March 6, 2018)
  • Elected to Texas Senate (2012)
  • Former: law clerk to U.S. Chief Justice William Rehnquist, associate D.A. to the Department of Justice, director of the Office of Policy Planning for the FTC, Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008)
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 18:36:13 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224520     Beto O'Rourke sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224631
  • Democrat
  • Open seat
  • Won primary with 61.8% of votes
  • U,S. House in Texas 16th (2013), El Paso City Council (2005-2013)
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 18:37:00 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300224631     Neal M. Dikeman sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300225180
  • Libertarian
  • Open seat
  • No primary (only nominated party candidate)
  • No political background
  • Founded Jane Capital and other tech startups, venture capitalist at Yellow Pages and Shell Oil
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 18:40:33 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300225180     Demographics sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300226513
  • Gender: 50.4% female, 50.6% male
  • Race: 74.9% white, 11.9% black, 4.2% Asian
  • High school graduation rate: 81.9%
  • College graduation rate: 27.6%
  • Median household income: $53, 207
  • Persons below poverty level: 19.9%
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 18:49:41 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300226513     Registration Information sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300226571
  • Voter registration deadline: October 9
  • Early voting: October 22-November 2
  • Online registration: No
  • Voting by mail: allowed
  • Voter ID required? Yes
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 18:49:59 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300226571     Politics of the Race sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300227326
  • 3 public opinion polls:
  • 1) Emerson (781 LV, 3.7 MoE, Cruz +3)
  • 2) New York Times/Siena (800 LV, 3.6 MoE. Cruz +8)
  • 3) CNN (716 LV, 4.5 MoE, Cruz +7)

    • Interest groups:
    • Cruz: Woodforest Financial Group, Senate Conservatives Fund, NorPAC, Sullivan & Cromwell, Lockheed Martin, Berkshire Hathaway, Delta Airlines
    • O’Rourke: University of Texas, Alphabet Inc., University of California, Apple, AT&T, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon
    • Texas voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
    • Endorsements:
    • Cruz: President Donald Trump
    • O’Rourke: Houston Chronicle, The Dallas Morning News, J Street PAC, National Education Association

    • Campaign Spending  
      • last reported 
    • Cruz:  $33,896,025
    • O'Rourke:  $59,162,350 
    • Dikeman: $25,220
    ]]>     2018-11-04 18:54:21 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300227326     Work Cited sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300227751 “Illinois' 12th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois'_12th_Congressional_District.

    “Illinois' 12th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois'_12th_Congressional_District#District_analysis.

    DataDhrumil. “Illinois 12th District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/illinois/12/.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism

    “Polling the 2018 Midterm Elections in Real Time.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 6 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism]]>     2018-11-04 18:57:16 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300227751     sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300229936 2018-11-04 19:11:36 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300229936 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300229983 2018-11-04 19:11:53 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300229983 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300230152 2018-11-04 19:13:07 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300230152 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300231018 2018-11-04 19:19:12 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300231018 sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300231232 2018-11-04 19:20:49 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300231232 Newspaper Articles sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300233308
  • https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20181022/news/310229934/
  • https://thesouthern.com/opinion/editorial/voice-of-the-southern-as-th-district-congressman-bost-won/article_ad3c35cf-52a2-59ba-ab22-7672376974cf.html
  • https://thesouthern.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/several-southern-illinois-iea-members-sign-letter-denouncing-union-s/article_965d24d1-3863-56cd-8599-2d69ec20693d.html
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 19:34:51 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300233308     Predictions sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300237881 Mike Bost will win the Illinois 12th congressional district. He will win this district because our district is 79% white. Throughout many elections, white people have generally been shown to vote republican. Since a majority of our district is white, Bost, the republican candidate, should receive a majority of the votes. Bost will also win our district because the high school graduation rate of our district is 88.4%. Throughout many elections, people with more education mainly vote republican. Since the majority people in our district have at least completed high school, they will likely vote for Bost. A point against Bost winning would be that our district has a high unemployment rate at 9.7%, and people who are unemployed or make little money have been shown to vote democrat, but 9.7% is far less than a majority. Even though these people may vote democrat, there is still a majority of people who are more likely to vote republican, which would have Bost win the election.]]> 2018-11-04 20:01:46 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300237881 Candidates Websites sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300239179
  • Mike Bost
  • Brendan Kelly
  • Randy Auxier

    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:09:40 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300239179     Academic Articles sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300240930
  • https://www.politifact.com/illinois/statements/2018/oct/05/mike-bost/illinois-race-congress-mike-bost-makes-head-scratc/
  • https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District_election_(March_20,_2018_Democratic_primary)
  • https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/12/
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:20:36 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300240930     Candidates Websites sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242466
  • Ted Cruz
  • https://www.tedcruz.org/
  • Beto O'rourke
  • Neal M. Dikeman

    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:30:09 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242466     Newspaper Articles sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242819
  • https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/10/29/beto-orourke-closes-ted-cruz-still-holds-narrow-lead-texas-senate-race
  • https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/06/the-texas-senate-race-is-the-most-interesting-contest-of-2018
  • https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/4/18061696/texas-early-voting-beto-orourke-ted-cruz
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:31:48 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242819     Academic Articles sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242837
  • https://lrl.texas.gov/collections/journals/journals.cfm
  • https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-ted-cruz-will-defeat-beto-orourke-in-this-texas-senate-race-2018-10-05
  • https://www.wsj.com/articles/beto-orourke-draws-big-crowds-in-texas-but-his-voters-tend-not-to-vote-1538731801
    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:31:54 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242837     Party Website sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242994
  • Democrats
  • Republicans
  • Libertarians 

    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:32:33 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300242994     Party Website sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300243010
  • Democrats
  • Republicans
  • Green 


    • ]]>     2018-11-04 20:32:38 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300243010     Prediction ryanjlee017 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300247217 Ted Cruz will win the Texas Senate election. He will win because Texas is 74.9% white, 50.6% white, and a Southern state. These demographics tend to vote Republican, and support the gender gap as well. A potential objection is that nearly 20% of people are recorded as being below the poverty line--that's a whole 20% that would likely vote Democrat!--but the other 80% could feasibly go Republican, and the last time a Democrat occupied a Texas statewide office was 1994, so a victory for Cruz seems likely.]]> 2018-11-04 20:59:37 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300247217 Work Cited sydneypaigewallace14 https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300307622 “Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html.

    “Texas Secretary of State.” Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-Current), www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml.

    “United States Senate Election in Texas, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018.

    “Voter Registration in Illinois.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/il-illinois/voter-registration.php.
    ]]>     2018-11-05 04:11:32 UTC https://padlet.com/sydneypaigewallace14/1mkzwgin703z/wish/300307622