Britain after Brexit Group 5 by Jack Rizzotti

Whither Post-Brexit Britain?

jackrizzottimoscow — 2021-09-04 12:24:00 UTC

Brexit has shaken the British economy to its core. Will Britain ever recover? What will need to happen for Britain to gain the economic power it had before Brexit? Write your opinion using cited material. Then comment on three other students' posts, agreeing or disagreeing, and offering a supported argument.

Brexit: what consequences does it involve?

Alexvavilov — 2021-09-06 10:16:58 UTC

Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit", which implies the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union starting from 31 December 2020. Undoubtedly, this decision had involved drastic, dramatic consequences concerning not only the British economy and the mode of life of the UK in its entirety, but also some other countries, predominantly European ones as I found out after research. However, in this essay, the attention will be focused on economic issues regarding the United Kingdom only and the consequences of such a withdrawal.

All long-term benefits from leaving the EU notwithstanding, Great Britain has been facing subsequent deterioration in the economic sector since Brexit was introduced. 'According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by between 0.6% and 1.3%,' says Wikipedia. Besides, previous uncertainty around Brexit had involved volatility of the pound that was caused by investors' lack of confidence. As it was reported by Stanford University and Nottingham University in 2018, the investments by businesses had been reduced by 'approximately 6 percentage points', which in turn resulted in redundancy of 1.5 percentage points in the UK. These analyses portray that Great Britain had an economic decline at the state of negotiation; as most economists declare, this tendency will proceed due to the fact that 'EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU'. It is acknowledged that Brexit shall reduce country's exports and make import more expensive. 'Depending on the extent of trade policy isolation, the UK’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would be between 0.6 and 3.0 percent lower in the year 2030 than if the country remained in the EU,' validates the pre-cited statement Bertelsmann Stiftung.

At the very beginning, it was mentioned that Brexit has positive affects on British mode of life in the long run, despite all economic issues having been predicted after many a research. As the IG portal notes, the United Kingdom will prevent its policy from being influenced by European politicians that will enable its governors to have more control over laws and regulations of the country in case of Brexit. Apart from this, Great Britain will have full boarder control, which is believed to increase level of security in this country. Besides, withdrawal from the EU will broaden the opportunities of trading with other countries, such as Japan, India and the USA, from which the UK shall benefit considerably. One more advantage of Brexit, which I want to mention, concerns EU membership fees which Great Britain will not be obliged to pay if leaving the union. As the IG portal suggests, these funds 'could be reperpoused and spent on issues that matter most to the British people'.

All things considered, I strongly believe that not only will the UK gain the economic power it had before Brexit, but it also will improve its level of life, and yet it is not the matter of couple of years. The withdrawal from the European Union had involved unpleasant economic consequences for this country but had enabled it to be sovereign, thereby having made it responsible for determining its future.

References:

Post-Brexit UK

eshshakirov — 2021-09-07 15:51:29 UTC

There are several main factors of the British market downturn. To begin with, the logistic sector faces many challenges after Brexit. New customs policies made it more difficult for the suppliers and exporters to cross the UK border. Another aspect is the labour shortage. There are not enough drivers to transport the goods or staff to work on the farms, a hospitality industry lacks about 180.000 workers.

From my standpoint, to mitigate those issues the UK should enact flexible policies so that it will not harm the industries and ease the process of exporting and importing goods. I understand that it is extremely challenging to leave the EU without any radical changes that might be harmful to the UK, but as as the time goes the government will be able to try different ways of dealing with the rest of the world and find the best one.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/08/uk-employers-struggle-with-worst-labour-shortage-since-1997

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXbiDpgtmk4&ab_channel=Channel4News

Impact of Brexit

ISLevin — 2021-09-07 16:41:38 UTC

It is hard to estimate Brexit impact on the UK economy today. In first 4 years it will lose around 40 billions dollars. After the announcement of the Brexit many companies moved all their offices, workers and money to the continental Europe. Also before the Brexit banks transfered around 1 trillion dollars out of the UK. It has affected economy a lot. British export to the EU fell by 19,3%. It has affected economy a lot. Economists also suppose that this tendency will increase in the future and COVID will enhance all the Problems. In my opinion in the next 20 years GB economy will not recover. But in the long-term perspectives it will definitely happen. Brexit will make British economy more independent, consequently they will have possibility to use their resources more efficient.

To gain the economy British government has to return investment that they have lost. They can reach this goal by the decreasing taxes. Consequently, in some time the UK will recovere their economy and even make it stronger than it was previously.

Information was taken from:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cepcovid-19-021.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

Brexit: what will happen to Great Britain?

mishaboldin — 2021-09-07 16:44:19 UTC

To say the least, Brexit is a withdrawal of the UK from the EU, that has a lot of legacy and impact on both sides.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm in favour of the idea, that the negative impact of Brexit is short-term and that's why Great Britain will possibly recover in the near future.
Not only the UK has suffered the economic downturn, but the whole world, due to COVID-19. Many people lost their jobs and even more people could not protect their businesses. However, the pandemic is getting lover thanks to varieful vaccine options and the fact, that population of Britain has so called herd immunity. "In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it." - says Dr David Matthews from the University of Bristol about the possible end of COVID-19.

Taking everything into consideration, I believe, that the UK will recover and, moreover, increase its economy, but the only possible way for this future is coming through tough pandemic and involving more people in importing industry, as Great Britain is one of the world's rop import countries.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-still-imports-more-outside-eu-than-bloc-gap-narrowing-2021-07-09/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/13/uk-economy-growth-covid-exports-eu-brexit

Problems of Post-Brexit British economy.

iazaikin — 2021-09-07 17:08:30 UTC

After leaving European Union in 2020 due to the referendum in 2016, United Kingdom faced an amount of economic problems. The most substantial problems, as for me, are in the trading, security and labor economic sectors. According to IMF research one-quarter of domestic financial sector revenues are related to EU clients, and, as a result, financial services output could fall by as much as 15 percent. In addition, the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly half of the UK’s trade in goods and services. Because of restrictions and barriers, trade between UK and REU (Rest of the European Union) might reduce. These statistics are absolutely awful for the British economy.

The biggest problem in the security sector is the fact that there are a lot of new barriers for immigrants, so companies that depend on migrate-workers will be damaged strongly. Due to it, researchers expect long-period unemployment in Britain.

In my opinion, UK should come to the arrangement in mentioned above sectors with EU, to repair their trade flows and get British economy off the ground.

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.12859

Brexit: pros and cons. The recovery of economy

polinatimofeeva2017 — 2021-09-07 17:13:58 UTC

Brexit is the UK’s exit from the European Union. It follows a referendum result on 23 June 2016. Leaving the European Union has a profound impact on individuals and businesses in the UK. The European Union has grown to become a “single market” allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. However, all these privileges disappeared when the UK left the EU in 2021.

There are different opinions concerning the consequences of Brexit. In the paragraphs below I will show some pros and cons of it.

The European Union is the UK’s largest trade partner. Around a half of the UK’s trade is with the EU. EU membership reduces trade costs between the UK and the EU. This makes goods and services cheaper for UK consumers and allows UK businesses to export more. Leaving the EU would lower trade between the UK and the EU because of higher tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

Furthermore, freedom to work and live between the UK and the EU also comes to an end. In 2021, UK nationals will need a visa if they want to stay in the EU more than 90 days in a 180-day period.

Brexit on the other hand had positive impact too. Firstly, it will help in decreasing overcrowding which UK complains that it affects its economy on a large scale. Moreover, some UK skilled workers are working in other countries and Brexit will help to bring talent back to UK.

Secondly, it will solve the multi-currency problems i.e. it will solve the problems in converting euros to pounds or pounds to euros as only single currency would be available.

Thirdly, it will help UK government in lowering taxes on every item as government will not have to pay extra for the membership.

Will Britain ever recover from Brexit?

Nobody truly knows. This is almost impossible to answer, all of the suggestions (by economists, not journalists or politicians) estimate 10–30 years. However, in Wikipedia it is said that the effects can be rather severe and unpredicted. Economists suggest that the UK is in for some short time pain. The optimists hope that with Britain, which is now free to set its own rules rather than fitting in with what the EU bloc wants, it can become super competitive and sooner we will see strong economic growth.

Personally, I suppose that it will take somewhat longer for the United Kingdom to recover from Brexit than to recover from the 2007-2008 crash. However, it will be more like a recession with a reduction in standards of living. How to best recover? People should get on with Brexit and put all the uncertainties behind. The government should embrace the opportunities that Brexit provides, and make the most of them. It is implied that the UK should co-operate with the EU, and it will continue to do so, but as a neighbor, not a member.

Taking into consideration all the mentioned above, at this time it is hard to say that either it is a good decision or not but business analysts say it would be a fruitful decision for UK in future, as UK will have positive and negative impacts of Brexit on its economy. Time will tell.

Links

https://www.investopedia.com/brexit-deal-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly-5095827

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66144/1/__lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_LSE%20BrexitVote%20blog_brexit02.pdf

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

Brexit's Impact On The UK

eGGork4 — 2021-09-07 17:15:21 UTC

In the year of 2020 on 31st of January at 11 p.m. the United Kingdom withdrew from European Union. This action has raised a lot of controversy among people both inside and outside the UK. Brexit seriously influenced British companies, as before they were able to export and import goods from the EU with no taxes and no bureaucracy papers, which greatly increase delivery time. It's worth mention that Britain and Brussels agreed not to tax the goods. One may think that the problem is solved. However, there are still a lot of paperwork needed to be done with imported goods, which, as I mentioned before, takes a lot of time and even may result in goods rotting (=losing money). This factor may stop future investors from considering the UK as a country to put money in. But it is not the only problem. Scotland also wants to split, but London doesn't give its permission. This may result in strained relationship between them, which is obviously not good for the UK. If Scotland somehow make a split, Britain will lose 1/3 of its lands and nearly 8% of population.

Well, I suppose that Britain will recover in future undoubtedly. It just needs time and making right decisions. Firstly, the UK's government need to find out how can they improve weak points. For example, problem with paperwork can be tackled by increasing salaries for people working in customs control. This will help attracting more people to work there. As a result, less time will be spend on goods' delivery. Secondly, Britain needs to persuade Scotland to stay. Otherwise, it will result in losing a large number of workers, important lands and also investors, as Britain's prestige will be seriously damaged. Thirdly, the UK needs to review the idea of toughing up migrant control, as there are a bunch of companies which are in need of cheap labour.

Reference:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-5ad10db6

How did Brexit affect British economy?

sakhibgareeval — 2021-09-07 17:47:37 UTC

The fact that Britain left the EU is considered to be rather controversial.

On the one hand, The UK will have the opportunity to make decisions without the EU approval. On the other hand, it had a huge impact on the economy. According to Financial times, the UK has lost billions of pounds in annual gross domestic product after Brexit. It was a harmful consequence of Brexit to the British economy. It has also affected regular workers. Many people lost their jobs because of that.

In my opinion, this situation with British economy is temporary. Although, new policies brought some difficulties, in a long term prospective that may be benefitial for Britain. The UK will have more independancy thus they can control everything connected with their country themselves.

I think the British government need to develop their own industries to recover from Brexit and support British companies as they do not have help from Europe anymore. Therefore, Britain has to make a plan how to recover from Brexit without any outside interference.

All in all, there are both advantages and disadvantages in Brexit. People can see the result of that action only in many years.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Walid-Abouzeid/publication/354248721_E2306103036/links/612e451ac69a4e48796e4cc6/E2306103036.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit

On January 31, 2021, the EU lost a key member.

piakovleva — 2021-09-07 19:10:33 UTC

London was the financial capital of Europe. 2 countries out of 4 countries of the United Kingdom are extremely dissatisfied with Brexit.
The UK authorities now want to relax the strict rules of Europe and even reduce taxes, which is good for the rich part of the population, businessmen and financiers.
Britain has always been a key ally of the United States in Europe and, according to the BBC, the economy will also suffer greatly, since more than half of all economic activity in the world is accounted for by the United States, China and the European Union. Brexit will impoverish both Britain and Europe. The safest option for everyone is to leave everything as it is. To do this, they will have to agree to the same conditions under which Switzerland lives with the EU, which initially did not suit Brexit supporters very much. So, the gap will be destructive and long. A good option would be to join the European Free Trade Association or accept similar conditions for Britain and the EU. This will give the same rights as the members of the union (free sale of goods and free movement of capital and people). Thus, Britain will retain most of the advantages that it had in the EU related to duty-free trade.
The option that Jones himself spoke about is an agreement like Canada and the EU. Unlike the European Economic Area, the agreement with Canada, although it removes a lot of duties, still retains them for some important goods. It will also affect education and security, but not much.
If we talk about a"hard Brexit" -when Britain will trade with the EU through the World Trade Organization, like all other countries of the world. Which is very unprofitable for both the EU and Britain, since everything will be screwed up by duties and will make it difficult to transport goods. The British automotive industry has an unforgivable lot to lose from such a situation.
Links:
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

The Post-Brexit impact on The United Kingdom

dvoryanchikov_nikolay — 2021-09-07 19:15:19 UTC

To begin with, The United Kingdom decided to leave the EU in March 2019. British economy was shaken to its core because of the Brexit. During the UK’s membership in the EU the country had privileges and a special trade arrangement that gave the UK an opportunity to sell goods and services without any tariff and non-tariff barriers. Moreover, the British economy was literally based on trading the European Union. Consequently, the Union was the largest trading partner of the Britain, so a greater weight of British production was exported to Europe. For instance, 56% of British cars were sold to the EU and about 25% of UK-produced financial services also related to EU clients. By and large, the UK’s economy, to say the least, is out of shape nowadays; every sector is seriously damaged and needs a complex recovery and reorganization for the future economic success.

From my standpoint, I reckon that the British economy will recover and become stronger and more sustainable. I believe that a total improvement and development of each economy sector might be valuable because the most complicated stage is achieving economic self-sufficiency. At the same time, The United Kingdom should do its best to prevent their trading relationships that had been structuring and organizing for years from wrecking. It’s just a matter of time.

References:

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-still-imports-more-outside-eu-than-bloc-gap-narrowing-2021-07-09/

How did Brexit impact the economy of the UK?

dvalkhazova — 2021-09-07 20:04:54 UTC

''Brexit'' stands for "British exit" from the EU. On June 23, 2016 the U.K. voted to leave the EU and in 2020 it actually did. People had different opinions on whether it was something that the UK needed or something it didn't, but my job is to find out how did Brexit affect Britain's economy.

Kimberly Amadeo from thebalance.com writes:
''Brexit's biggest disadvantage is its damage to the U.K.'s economic growth. Most of this has been due to the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.

Uncertainty over Brexit slowed the U.K.'s growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1.0% in 2019. The U.K. government estimated that Brexit would lower the U.K.’s growth by up to 6.7% over 15 years. It assumed the current terms of free trade but restricted immigration.
The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day. That helps exports but increases the prices of imports. It has not regained its pre-Brexit high''.

So, as we can understand, Brexit had a huge and bad impact on the UK's economy.

Personally, I think that one of the ways to regain its economic power, Britain has to improve its relations with countries that have a strong impact on the world's economy, such as Russia, the USA and China. Of course it is not something easy and quick to do and it probably won't work with all three of the countries I've mentioned, but the UK at least has to try, because having a strong ''ally'' is something that gives a country good prospects.

https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999#how-did-brexit-impact-the-us

Brexit

ArtemSergeev — 2021-09-07 20:13:20 UTC

After analyzing some articles in the internet and reading some articles from my groupmates i consider that there is only one truly point of view. Of course nowadays UK is having many problems because of Brexit (British exit). There are some facts:

56% of British cars were sold to the EU and about 25% of UK-produced financial services also related to EU clients.
British export to the EU fell by 19,3%.
The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day.

But in the long – term British economy will not degradate, even on the contrary it will improve. So we can say that the UK need to go through the problems i have mentioned before and win their independence from the EU.

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/07/government-ease-sewage-discharge-rules-amid-chemical-shortage

Impact of Brexit on the UK economy

dmitrykuznetsov996 — 2021-09-07 20:53:33 UTC

Brexit had some drastic consequences on the UK economy.

Firstly, it has already slowed UK's economy growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1% in 2019 because of the uncertainty with trade politics with EU and other factors. According to the forecast of the UK government, economy of the country can be reduced nearly by 7% in the next 15 years due to Brexit. Moreover, Brexit weakened british pound, causing a drop of GBP/USD currency by 6.5% from 1.48$ in 2015 to 1.38$ nowadays.

Secondly, british employees suffer from Brexit a lot as now it's harder for them to apply for a job in EU. Also 95% of EU-born employees returned back from the UK so now it became harder for british employers to find qualified specialists.

Thirdly, Brexit made the UK a “third-party” country in the eyes of EU. And even though UK’s trade regulatory frameworks match those of the EU, several issues remain unsolved. There are some regulatory cooperation agreements about pharmaceutical manufacturing, vehicles, organic products, wine trade and chemicals, yet there are a lot of uncertainties.
However, after Brexit the UK has worked a lot to create and maintain its own global trading ties. For example, since the beginning of 2021 the United Kingdom has already pursued some new trade deals with Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, South Korea, and Turkey with which EU didn’t have trade agreements. Also trade agreements with India, Australia and the USA were replicated from existing ones in the EU.

Last but not least, the economy of the UK was struck hard by COVID-19 that knocked it down by 18.3%. Nonetheless, UK’s GDP increased by 2.3% in April 2021. However, in this situation with so many uncertainties about the end of Coronavirus pandemic, it’s very hard to predict when exactly and how strong the economy will recover. GDP of the UK decreased by 9.9% in 2020 but it showed a growth by 4% in 2021 and now experts forecast a growth by 7.3% in 2022.

In conclusion, I want to say that I strongly believe that the United Kingdom economy will recover after Brexit regarding all the hardships it suffered since 2016. As far as the UK creates new trade channels, maintains existing ones and keeps stimulating its domestic economy by attracting foreign investors and subsidizing it, everything should be just fine. However, this question is very controversial and there always remains a room for discussion.

Source:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wali-Abouzeid/publication/354248721_E2306103036/links/612e451ac69a4e48796e4cc6/E2306103036.pdf

How Brexit affected the UK economy?

aapodobed — 2021-09-07 20:59:08 UTC

How Brexit affected the UK economy?

 After United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union country have suffered huge economy problems. In this essay I would like to figure out what difficulties does UK face and is it possible to restore the country's economy. I believe that one of the worst economical UK problems is trading issues with EU. Covid-19 restrictions and Brexit double hit the country's volatile economy. According to the Office for National Statistics in February goods exports to the EU fell 40.7% and imports dropped 28.8%. The figures contributed to a 2.9% month-on-month decline in overall economic output. Overall, Britain’s exports dropped 19.3% and imports fell 21.6%, the biggest monthly declines since records began in 1997. Many famous British economists say that despite a difficult start of the year Britain still have chances to reopen their economy, if UK will continue to take all the steps necessary to support its recovery. I hope that Britain will be able to restore its economical position, however nowadays, due to the coronavirus, it is very difficult to predict the foreseeable future.

Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grew-by-stronger-than-expected-21-mm-march-2021-05-12/

https://apnews.com/article/brexit-europe-global-trade-coronavirus-pandemic-gross-domestic-product-4cce8c373d7f7d98e6d34cf79daf334b

Post-Brexit climb back: how can Britain regain its former power ?

janik_atulyan — 2021-09-07 22:07:37 UTC

Before writing this note I had only a slight idea about the Brexit and all the economic consequences it has led to. However, after going through a reasonable amount of academic articles, I can surly state, that Brexit has had a negative economic impact on the UK. Logistic companies now have to constantly deal with red tape. Same applies to fishing and agriculture sectores. Trading has become considerably more complicated due to the different food standarts and increased taxes. I think there is no point in mentioning all problems and inconveniences companies, people and government on the whole have to face at present, as it is already clear that the decision, made on January 31, 2020, was a mistake.

Notwithstanding the disastrous situation, there is a way for Britian to regain its stability. One of the first things, that have to be done, is putting someone more compitent to the position of power in order to mitigate not all, but at least some of the diverse implications of a hard Brexit. I am convinced that, if managed right, the initial goal of boosting an economy and investing in NHS would have been accomplished.

Source :
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/the_sunday_times_february_3_2019_rogoff.pdf
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2021/01/25/after-brexit-the-impacts-on-the-uk-and-eu-economies-by-2030/
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/economic-impact-of-brexit/

Brexit and British economy

essokolova_2 — 2021-09-08 04:44:47 UTC

Leaving the European Union affected British economy in long-term. Firstly, it decreased the Britain's per-capita income level up to 10% and GDP losses of 1-5%.

It was calculated that the UK economy will be stuck for at least 15 years, 1/3 of it's exports would be tariff-free and 1/4 would come across high trade barriers.

Brexit also had huge impact on firms. As the result, total costs for companies have risen and the prices for sales and exports have reduced.

At the moment, the UK's first priority is to be with the largest trade partner. Britain also wants to make new trade arrangements with the EU as the basis for deals with other countries. The UK can also re-join the European Free Trade Association but that will provide less access to the Single Market.

Joining the European Economic Association and remaining part of the Single Market is probably the best available option now for Britain because it will keep the country closely integrated with the rest of Europe.

There are different opinions about whether Britain will recover its economy level after Brexit. But many factors show that economic policy reforms can provide a faster rate of economic grows, so the UK economy will benefit from leaving the EU at least in long term.

In my opinion, Britain will need many years to recover from Brexit, but finally it will gain its previous power with having an opportunity to overtake other European countries in this area.

https://voxeu.org/content/brexit-beckons-thinking-ahead-leading-economists

https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Immediate_impact_of_the_end_of_the_transition_period

Post-Brexit British economy by Gleb Smirnov

2021-09-08 09:55:54 UTC

‘Brexit’ is the name given to the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. It is a combination of ‘Britain’ and ‘exit’.

Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK, and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita. These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit. In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU. According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%. A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country." A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector." It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.

https://www.government.nl/topics/brexit/question-and-answer/what-is-brexit

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit