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“Biography.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 20 June 2017, mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography.

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“Campaign Finance Data.” FEC.gov, www.fec.gov/data/.

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Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.

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Charity, Justin. “The Senate Race in Arizona Is All About the Biggest Issue of the Midterm Elections.” The Ringer, The Ringer, 24 Oct. 2018, www.theringer.com/2018/10/24/18017274/arizona-senate-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-obamacare-health-care-trump.

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“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

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Leingang, Rachel. “Huge Increase in Number of Voters Registered in Arizona as Midterm Election Nears.” Azcentral, Arizona Republic, 18 Oct. 2018, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/17/arizona-voter-registration-surges-ahead-2018-midterm-election/1672458002/.

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Mikelionis, Lukas. “Senate Dem Hopeful Kyrsten Sinema Challenged over Details of Homeless Upbringing.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-challenged-over-details-of-homeless-upbringing.

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Mo, Kelsey. “McConnell-Aligned Group Gives Another $8.5 Million to pro-McSally PAC.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 26 Oct. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/26/mitch-mcconnell-backed-group-gives-another-8-5-million-pro-martha-mcsally-pac-senate-leadership-fund/1774767002/.

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NateSilver538. “Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/arizona/.

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Permanent Early Voting List Information, recorder.maricopa.gov/earlyvotingballot/permanentevlistinfo.aspx.

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“Republicans Outpacing Democrats in Early Voting in Key States, NBC News Finds.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881.

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Shaw, Adam. “Kyrsten Sinema Gets Boost in Arizona Senate Race as Green Party Candidate Drops out, Backs Her.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/kyrsten-sinema-gets-boost-in-arizona-senate-race-as-green-party-candidate-drops-out-backs-her.

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“Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.

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While this race will be very close, we predict Kyrsten Sinema (D) will win.

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Sinema represents many of the Arizonans beliefs and stands firmly with them in terms of healthcare, a critical issue in the state. McSally’s unpopular view on Obamacare could ultimately cost her the election. In addition, former candidate Angela Green publically voiced her support for Sinema adding around 6% of votes to the Democratic candidate. Finally, more younger citizens have registered to vote and usually align themselves with more  Democratic and moderate views, provided by Sinema. Thus, Sinema has a higher chance of winning the election.

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However, Arizona has traditionally voted Republican which may lead to Martha McSally’s win. In addition, Trump publically announced his support for her which elevates her position. Additionally, a major scandal surrounds Sinema that involved partially lying about her past leading to trust issues between the Arizonans and Sinema. Finally, according to NBC, Republican affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic affiliated ones in early voting. However, Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting.

Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.

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U.S. Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R) are running for office.

Offices were previously held by Senator John McCain, who passed away on August 25, 2018, and Senator Jeff Flake who is retiring.

The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.

“Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.

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Polls reveal that the senate race in Arizona is a toss-up, which indicates that both candidates share the same likelihood of getting elected when considering things like the makeup of people who will actually vote and sampling error. 538 finds that there is a 4 in 7 chance (57.6%) that the democratic candidate Kirsten Sinema will get elected, while predicting a 3 in 7 chance (42.4%) that Martha McSally will win. Furthermore, it is just as important to recognize that 538 has compiled results from multiple polling sites such as Harris Interactive and HighGround. When looking at the data from 10 recent polls conducted in the last month or so, many of the results seem divisive with either candidate winning by a few percentage points. Thus, public opinion indicates that either party can take control of the senator's seat.

To be more specific with the divisiveness in polling data, look to polls conducted by Harris Interactive and the Trafalgar Group. Both polls were conducted between October 31st to around November 2nd; however, they indicate slightly different results based on their sample size.

Harris Interactive found that there would be a 49% chance that McSally would win and a 44% chance Sinema would take the seat.  They obtained these results with a sample size of 600 respondents, and their poll had a margin of error of 5.6.

On the other hand, Trafalgar found that there was a 50% chance that Sinema would win over McSally who has a 47% chance of winning the election. Trafalgar came to this conclusion by surveying 2,166 people, thus, resulting in a margin of error of 2.7.

Though both polling sources are well-respected, because Trafalgar surveyed more than triple the number of people surveyed in Harris and has a smaller margin of error, it should be given more weight when considering the outcomes of the election. In fact to put this in perspective, Trafalgar's credibility (weight) is 1.44 points higher than Harris. However, because Trafalgar and Harris both predict that the race will be a close one, there is no substantial evidence that Sinema or McSally will win with certainty.

NateSilver538. “Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/arizona/.

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As of October, Sinema has raised up to 10.5 million dollars compared to McSally's 7.6 million dollars. Additionally, outside money has totaled up to 25 million dollars.

So that leads us to imperative question: who is giving candidates this money?

National democratic groups such as Majority Forward and Priorities USA Action have helped Sinema through advertisements.

Defend Arizona, a conservative group that supports lower taxes, a strong military, and limited government is actively supporting McSally. They run ads that paint Sinema as a radical liberal.

Mo, Kelsey. “McConnell-Aligned Group Gives Another $8.5 Million to pro-McSally PAC.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 26 Oct. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/26/mitch-mcconnell-backed-group-gives-another-8-5-million-pro-martha-mcsally-pac-senate-leadership-fund/1774767002/.

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McSally has made it clear that she supports all of Trump's policies and plans to continue doing so if elected. Trump, in turn, has also announced his support for her.

Green Party candidate Angela Green dropped out of the race to support Sinema. Green tells ABC News, "I want [supporters] to vote for a better Arizona, and that would be for Kyrsten Sinema". This last-minute support could be just what Sinema needs as Green was projected to take 6% of votes in the election.

Shaw, Adam. “Kyrsten Sinema Gets Boost in Arizona Senate Race as Green Party Candidate Drops out, Backs Her.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/kyrsten-sinema-gets-boost-in-arizona-senate-race-as-green-party-candidate-drops-out-backs-her.

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Due to Arizona's proximity to the border, immigration would seem like an important issue. However, because Sinema has taken a conservative stance on immigration - even supporting Trump's wall - voters won't vote based on immigration as both candidates share similar ideologies.

What is a decisive factor for voters is health care. The Ringer reports that voters in Arizona consider health care to be the most important issue in this election.  In fact, Arizona has the third-highest uninsured rate in the entire country.

McSally has repeatedly opposed Obamacare, and has voted to repeal Obamacare multiple times while serving in the House. On the other hand, Sinema is a proponent of Obamacare. She even helped to draft the Affordable Care Act. Her ideals might win her the election as polls indicate that even in conservative Arizona, most people support Obamacare and are against its repeal.

Charity, Justin. “The Senate Race in Arizona Is All About the Biggest Issue of the Midterm Elections.” The Ringer, The Ringer, 24 Oct. 2018, www.theringer.com/2018/10/24/18017274/arizona-senate-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-obamacare-health-care-trump.

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Majority of children are people of color

This includes Native Americans and indigenous peoples of Alaska

As population grows with an increase of 108.8%, demographics are changing

42.2 % of the state's population is nonwhite

Hispanic population alone makes up 30% of the state's residents

Hispanic immigration to Arizona began with NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

Cárdenas, Vanessa, et al. “Arizona's Demographic Changes.” Center for American Progress, 28 Feb. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2012/02/28/11060/arizonas-demographic-changes/.

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To vote in Arizona, one must be a citizen of the United States and a resident of an Arizona county

A voter must be 18 years or older on or before Election Day

To be eligible to vote in an election one must register at least 29 days prior to the election

A citizen can register online, in person at the county recorder's office, or by mail

Citizens must provide proof of citizenship to register to vote

Acceptable forms of documentation include birth certificates, passports, and U.S. naturalization documents

Voter Identification: non-photo ID

Voter must present some form of identification at the polls

The identification does not necessarily need to include a photo

Present a photo ID that includes his or her name and registered address, or two forms of non-photo ID that include the voter's name and registered address

Early voting: Arizona does permit early ballot submission

All voted early ballots must be received in the office of the County Recorder, other officer in charge of elections, or deposited at any Ballot Center in the county no later than 7:00 p.m. on Election Day

Permanent Early Voting List Information, recorder.maricopa.gov/earlyvotingballot/permanentevlistinfo.aspx.

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This year, the number of people newly registered to vote in Arizona is more than double that of the last midterm election

This could signal a higher voter turnout in November

The youngest voting demographic, those aged 18 to 24, has more new voters registered than all other age groups since Jan. 1 — and possibly more than their cohort in 2016, a presidential election year (nearly 314,000 new registrations)

Leingang, Rachel. “Huge Increase in Number of Voters Registered in Arizona as Midterm Election Nears.” Azcentral, Arizona Republic, 18 Oct. 2018, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/17/arizona-voter-registration-surges-ahead-2018-midterm-election/1672458002/.

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Campaign expense: $15,688,595

Sinema is currently representative of Arizona’s 9th congressional district.

Her original affiliation was with the Green Party, while she currently affiliates with the Blue Dog Coalition as a conservative democrat

Ideologically, Sinema is more conservative than the democratic party and is a moderate candidate.

Scandal

Sinema claims that she was homeless and lived in an abandoned gas station in Florida with no running water or electricity - proved partially false

NY Times received court records detailing her payments for an electric, phone, and gas bill while they were living in the abandoned gas station, contrasting some aspects of her story

Said she had a toilet but no running water

But the previous owner of the gas station said that her building had a facet and wood-burning stove

Primary race

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

Mikelionis, Lukas. “Senate Dem Hopeful Kyrsten Sinema Challenged over Details of Homeless Upbringing.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-challenged-over-details-of-homeless-upbringing.

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Currently congresswoman representing Arizona’a Second Congressional District in the House

Current affiliation -

Ideologically, known as a political moderate

26-year military career

Became the first woman in U.S. history to fly a fighter jet in combat, command a fighter squadron

Because of this, serves on the Armed Services and Homeland Security Committee

Many of her achievements are associated with military history and veterans

Restored the rights for WWII female pilots to have their assises in the Arlington National Cemetery

Founded legislation to fast track veterans for jobs at the southwest border

Primary race

“Biography.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 20 June 2017, mcsally.house.gov/about/full-biography.