# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Thanks to its position on a volatile section of the Mid-Atlantic ridge, Iceland is a world leader in the the use of geothermal energy, and of the six geothermal power plants in Iceland, Hellisheiði (pronounced "het-li-shay-thee") is the newest and largest. Fully operational since 2010, it sits on the mossy slopes of the Hengill volcano in the south-west of the country; a green and placid-looking landscape that belies the turbulent geological activity rumbling beneath it.

To access the potential energy under the surface, wells are drilled thousands of metres into the ground, penetrating reservoirs of pressurised water. Heated by the Earth's energy, this water can be more than 300C in temperature, and when released it boils up from the well, turning partly to steam on its way. At Hellisheiði, the steam is separated from the water to power some of the plant's seven turbines, while the remaining water is further depressurised to create more steam, used to power other turbines. At its maximum output the station can produce 303MW of electricity, making it one of the three largest single geothermal power stations in the world.

"You don't see a 300MW geothermal power station very often," says Marta Rós Karlsdóttir, managing director of natural resources at ON Power, the publicly owned energy company that runs Hellisheiði. "It's big, but it's also state of the art and very efficient." What makes Hellisheiði particularly innovative is that, as well as electricity, it produces a hot water supply for the city of Reykjavik. Once the steam has been extracted, the remaining geothermal water is diverted to a heat exchanger, where it is used to heat up a supply of fresh, mains water. "We have a 26km pipeline down to Reykjavik," says Karlsdóttir, "transporting hot water at around 80C." The natural incline of the mountain means the water travels naturally, and the pipe is so well insulated that it arrives in the city having only lost a degree or so in temperature.

The thick billows of steam notwithstanding, it is almost hard to believe that Hellisheiði is a power station at all, resembling as it does a modern art gallery or conference centre. The station is open to the public, with guided tours, educational installations and even a souvenir shop. " From the exhibition you can look over the turbine hall and hear the roar of the turbines," says Karlsdóttir, "nothing is burning, there's no mess, and we have walking paths all over the mountain." According to Karlsdóttir, a major proportion of the plant's thousands of annual visitors are British schoolchildren, witnessing a vision of clean, sustainable power dramatically different from the murky, fossilised industry they are used to.
Topics

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Sustainable energy: inside Iceland's geothermal power plant

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Thanks to its position on a volatile section of the Mid-Atlantic ridge, Iceland is a world leader in the the use of geothermal energy, and of the six geothermal power plants in Iceland, Hellisheiði (pronounced "het-li-shay-thee") is the newest and largest.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Will environmental damage from fracking natural gas will outweigh the gains from using a fuel that is cleaner than oil or coal?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Below more than a mile (1.6 kilometers) of ocean and three more (4.8 kilometers) of mud and rock, the prize is waiting. At the surface a massive drilling vessel called the Discoverer Enterprise strains to reach it. It's the spring of 2003, and for more than two months now the Enterprise has been holding steady over a spot 120 miles (190 kilometers) southeast of New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico. The ship is driving a well toward an estimated one billion barrels of oil below the seafloor-the biggest oil field discovered in United States territory in three decades.

The 835-foot (255-meter) Enterprise shudders every few minutes as its thrusters put out a burst of power to fight the strong current. The PA system crackles, warning of small amounts of gas bubbling from the deep Earth. And in the shadow of the 23-story-tall derrick, engineers and managers gather in worried knots. "We've got an unstable hole," laments Bill Kirton, who's overseeing the project for the oil giant BP.

The drill, suspended from the Enterprise's derrick through a swimming-pool-size gap in the hull, has penetrated 17,000 feet (5,182 meters) below the seafloor. Instead of boring straight down, it has swerved more than a mile (1.6 kilometers) sideways, around a massive plume of rock salt. But now, with 2,000 feet (610 meters) to go, progress is stalled. Water has begun seeping into the well from the surrounding rock, and the engineers are determined to stem its spread before drilling farther. Otherwise, the trickle of water could turn into an uncontrolled surge of crude. "There's a lot of oil down there wanting to come out," says Cecil Cheshier, a drilling supervisor, after struggling all night with the unruly hole. "You can cut corners and take chances-but that could cost you a lawsuit or cause a spill into the Gulf of Mexico, and then deepwater drilling gets shut down."

The troubled well is just one of 25 that BP plans to drill in the giant field, called Thunder Horse, which sprawls over 54 square miles (140 square kilometers) of seafloor. The entire project, including a floating platform half again as wide as a football field that will collect the oil from individual wells and pipe it to shore starting next year, will cost four billion U.S. dollars. But if the wells live up to expectations, each will eventually gush tens of thousands of barrels a day. "That's like a well in Saudi Arabia," says Cheshier. "We hardly get those in the U.S. anymore."

You wouldn't know it from the hulking SUVs and traffic-clogged freeways of the United States, but we're in the twilight of plentiful oil. There's no global shortage yet; far from it. The world can still produce so much crude that the current price of about $30 for a 42-gallon (159-liter) barrel would plummet if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not limit production. This abundance of oil means, for now, that oil is cheap. In the United States, where gasoline taxes average 43 cents a gallon (instead of dollars, as in Europe and Japan), a gallon of gasoline can be cheaper than a bottle of water-making it too cheap for most people to bother conserving. While oil demand is up everywhere, the U.S. remains the king of consumers, slurping up a quarter of the world's oil-about 3 gallons (11 liters) a person every day-even though it has just 5 percent of the population.

Yet as the Enterprise drillers know, slaking the world's oil thirst is harder than it used to be. The old sources can't be counted on anymore. On land the lower 48 states of the U.S. are tapped out, producing less than half the oil they did at their peak in 1970. Production from the North Slope of Alaska and the North Sea of Europe, burgeoning oil regions 20 years ago, is in decline. Unrest in Venezuela and Nigeria threatens the flow of oil. The Middle East remains the mother lode of crude, but war and instability underscore the perils of depending on that region.

And so oil companies are searching for new supplies and braving high costs, both human and economic. Making gambles like Thunder Horse and venturing into West Africa and Russia, they are still finding oil in quantities to gladden a Hummer owner's heart. But in the end the quest for more cheap oil will prove a losing game: Not just because oil consumption imposes severe costs on the environment, health, and taxpayers, but also because the world's oil addiction is hastening a day of reckoning.

Humanity's way of life is on a collision course with geology-with the stark fact that the Earth holds a finite supply of oil. The flood of crude from fields around the world will ultimately top out, then dwindle. It could be 5 years from now or 30: No one knows for sure, and geologists and economists are embroiled in debate about just when the "oil peak" will be upon us. But few doubt that it is coming. "In our lifetime," says economist Robert K. Kaufmann of Boston University, who is 46, "we will have to deal with a peak in the supply of cheap oil."

The peak will be a watershed moment, marking the change from an increasing supply of cheap oil to a dwindling supply of expensive oil. Some experts foresee dire consequences: shortages, price spikes, economic disruption, and a desperate push to wrest oil from "unconventional" sources such as tar sands, oil shale, or coal. Others think that by curbing our oil use and developing sustainable alternatives now, we can delay the peak and wean ourselves more easily when the inevitable happens. "There are many things you can do to ease the transition," says Alfred Cavallo, an energy consultant in Princeton, New Jersey. "And you can have a very nice life on a sustainable system. Of course, not everyone is going to be driving SUVs."

The stuff we pump into our gas tanks is a freak of geology, the product of a series of lucky breaks over millions of years. The first break came in a liferich ancient sea: Sediments buried the organic material raining down onto the seafloor faster than it could decay. The next break: Eons later the seafloor sediments ended up at just the right depth-generally between 7,500 and 15,000 feet (2,286 and 4,572 meters)-for heat and pressure to slow-cook the organic material into oil. Then the oil collected in a "trap" of porous sandstone or limestone, and an impermeable cap of shale or salt kept it from escaping.

Any gap in this lucky chain of happenstance means a dry hole today. The luck held often enough that the world can now feed a daily oil habit of nearly 80 million barrels. In the U.S. about two-thirds of the oil goes to make fuel for cars, trucks, and planes. But the synthetic fabrics in our wardrobe and the plastics in just about everything we touch started out as oil too. We can also thank oil and its cousin, natural gas, for the cheap and plentiful food at the supermarket, grown with the help of hydrocarbon-based fertilizers and pesticides. As Daniel Yergin writes in his oil history The Prize, we live in "the Age of Hydrocarbon Man."

Around the world Hydrocarbon Man is getting thirstier. In the U.S., where oil consumption is expected to grow nearly 50 percent in 20 years, carmakers are touting horsepower as they did in the muscle-car 1960s. SUVs and minivans are displacing thriftier sedans and wagons as the standard family car. Even the tax code encourages consumption, offering people who buy the biggest SUVs for business use a deduction of up to $100,000. Since 1988 the average gas mileage of U.S. passenger vehicles has fallen, while the world has burned up more than a third of a trillion barrels of irreplaceable oil.

China, too, is learning to drink deep. A decade ago the world's most populous nation sipped oil, its streets choked with bicycles rather than motorized traffic. But last year newly prosperous professionals snapped up over two million cars-up 70 percent over 2002. China may have already leapfrogged Japan to become the world's second largest oil user. By 2025 China could be using ten million barrels a day, most of which will come from outside its own borders.

That's a predicament familiar to the U.S., where the roots of oil dependence deepened in the spring of 1971. Through 1970 the U.S. produced more than two-thirds of the oil it needed. An agency called the Texas Railroad Commission held down oil production to avoid overwhelming the market, keeping prices stable. By that spring, though, the giant, seemingly inexhaustible fields of Texas had reached their limits. The commission announced it would allow full-throttle production, but even so imports began rising-and the Texas fields just couldn't produce any faster.

That became painfully clear two years later, when Arab leaders clamped an oil embargo on the U.S. in retaliation for Washington's support of Israel in the 1973 Mideast war. Fields at home could not make up the difference. Gas lines grew and prices soared, giving most Americans their first lesson in the fragility of oil supplies.

The speed limit was dropped to 55 miles (88 kilometers) an hour to save fuel, and sales of thrifty Japanese and European cars surged. The 1978 revolution in Iran cut off that country's oil exports and triggered a second oil shock. By 1981 crude oil prices had risen above $70 a barrel in today's dollars, and U.S. oil consumption had dropped by nearly 15 percent from its 1978 peak. Higher prices also spurred the development of new fields outside the Persian Gulf: on Alaska's North Slope and in Mexico and the North Sea.

The new fields increased the world's oil supply, and by the inevitable logic of the market, more supply and less demand led to a price collapse. By the mid-1980s oil was selling for less than $25 a barrel in today's dollars. OPEC's grip weakened, its share of the oil on the world market falling from 55 percent to 30 percent. And even though supply disruptions in Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq have pushed up prices, "the stuff is still dirt cheap," says Cavallo. It's so cheap that U.S. consumption has climbed 25 percent since the mid-1980s, to its highest level ever. Imports have surged to 54 percent of the country's oil needs. And the best hope for slowing the U.S. rise in dependence on imported oil lies far out at sea.

To reach the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where the tireless drillers aboard the Enterprise are wrestling with the balky well, you board a helicopter in the coastal flatlands of Louisiana and fly south, over the small oil platforms that have colonized the green shallows of the Gulf in the past 30 to 40 years. Like the fields on the U.S. mainland, they are in their twilight, their oil production slipping year by year.

The platforms thin out and vanish by the time the ocean turns the blue of deep water, an hour from shore. Soon, another platform emerges from the haze. Called Marlin, it rides the waves on stout orange pontoons, its bright gas flare streaming in the breeze. Marlin is where BP engineers first learned to tap the Gulf's deepwater riches. Discovered in 1993, the Marlin field is now in full-scale production.

Tethered to the bottom half a mile down by thick steel tendons, Marlin taps 48,000 barrels of oil a day from reservoirs two miles (three kilometers) below the seafloor. Silvery ducts carry the crude to a complex of separator tanks. There natural gas, water, and sand are stripped out of the oil before it is pumped off the platform into a submerged pipeline, which carries it to shore.

Geologists once doubted oil could be found this far from shore. Twenty years ago, as drilling marched seaward across the shallow continental shelf, the oil-bearing sandstone layer seemed to be petering out. Scientists concluded that the sand deposited tens of millions of years ago by great rivers had not spread all the way out on the shelf. But they were mistaken. The sand-and oil-was there all right.

The sand had spilled off the edge of the shelf and down the steep continental slope to the deep-ocean floor. There it had pooled in apron-like deposits that turned into porous rock-perfect for capturing oil oozing from still deeper rock layers. In the 1990s, as hints of these deposits began showing up in seismic data, the vanguard of oil production stepped off the continental shelf, into waters thousands of feet deep. Now giant new fields, the biggest of them Thunder Horse, beckon at 6,000 feet (1,829 meters) and more. At still greater depths approaching 10,000 feet (3,048 meters), says geophysicist Roger Anderson of Columbia University, "there have been a whole series of finds," although they have yet to be exploited.

All in all, oil experts estimate that the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico will yield more than 25 billion barrels of oil. That's twice as much as in Alaska's giant Prudhoe Bay field, and far more than in any untapped U.S. prospect, including the controversial Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. "There's a major consensus that there's more oil there than you'd ever find in ANWR," says Anderson. With the boost from deepwater wells, offshore oil should increase from a third of U.S. oil production now to more than 40 percent by 2008, before tapering off. But it will still barely ease the American thirst for oil.

On the other side of the Atlantic, just off the coast of Cameroon, in West Africa, a giant pipeline terminal is helping quench that thirst. Every few days a tanker departs from the terminal with a belly full of oil piped 665 miles (1,070 kilometers) through savanna and rain forest from the billion-barrel Doba fields in Chad. The oil began flowing in July 2003, much of it bound for the United States. At 3.7 billion dollars, the project is the biggest private-sector investment in sub-Saharan Africa-a measure of U.S. interest in the 30 billion to 50 billion barrels of oil trapped in and near the Gulf of Guinea. A swelling river of crude from Chad, Nigeria, Angola, and other African countries now makes up 15 percent of U.S. imports and is expected to rise.

The Chad-Cameroon pipeline is more than another assurance that U.S. gas stations won't run short. It's also an effort by the World Bank and an industry consortium led by ExxonMobil to reverse the mounting human costs of oil development in Africa. So far, says Terry Lynn Karl, a Stanford University political scientist, the track record is "about as bleak as you can get."

By fueling inflation and dreams of quick wealth, she says, oil revenue has withered Africa's oil economies. In Nigeria the proportion of the population living in severe poverty has more than doubled, to 66 percent, after three decades of oil production. Oil revenues have vanished from national treasuries and into the pockets of corrupt officials in staggering amounts-over four billion U.S. dollars since 1997 in Angola, for example. "Oil has had a tendency to erode the democratic institutions that did exist," says Ian Gary of the Catholic Relief Services, who co-authored a study of African oil development with Karl. And oil money has often fed the region's many civil wars.

Eager to avoid such problems in Chad, ExxonMobil enlisted the World Bank to ensure that the country's government spends its oil windfalls on its people. The bank insisted that Chad set up an independent committee to manage its new riches-109 million dollars or more this year-reserving most of it for infrastructure, education, and health. The bank also monitored the pipeline construction and arranged compensation for farmers along the route.

But to Karl the arrangement has "loopholes you can drive a supertanker through," and Chad's government got off to a spectacularly bad start when it spent 4.5 million dollars-of a 25-million-dollar initial bonus from the oil companies-on weapons. Yet Columbia University law professor Peter Rosenblum believes the agreement is an important step. "As much as there's foreboding and fear about what's going to happen, there's also a recognition that this has put into place meaningful ground rules."

In Africa, oil's corrosive effects arc metaphorical. In Kazakhstan, another frontier in the oil scramble, the crude itself is literally corrosive. The Central Asian land east of the Caspian Sea boasts the biggest single discovery in 30 years: a vast geologic trap extending beneath the Caspian, called the Kashagan field, that could yield 7 billion to 13 billion barrels as it's developed. But it won't be easy. Its oil is under high pressure and laced with poisonous hydrogen sulfide, which requires special equipment and handling. And the field lies in the northern Caspian, a stronghold of the endangered beluga sturgeon, in waters too shallow for ordinary ships and oil platforms.

In the 1990s the first glimpse of fields like Kashagan spurred talk that the Caspian might be a new Middle East, with reserves of hundreds of billions of barrels. But the promising geologic structures did not always hold oil. More sober assessments now put the Caspian's promise at 17 billion to 33 billion barrels.

The real challenge to the Middle East's oil dominance comes from elsewhere in the old Soviet Union: the boggy, cold forest of western Siberia. Once the bulwark of the Soviet oil industry, Siberia declined in the early 1990s as its wells and infrastructure fell into disrepair. Many analysts believed Siberia's oil was played out. Now it's making a comeback.

Russia passed Saudi Arabia in 2003 as the world's biggest producer. And, says Matt Sagers, a Russia expert at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, "for Russia it's still up, up, and away." That's because the rough-and-tumble private companies that grabbed the Soviet fields at fire-sale prices in the early 1990s have gotten serious about modernizing them. Enlisting Western specialists, the companies resurveyed the fields with up-to-date seismic technology to determine where the oil was hiding and how best to get it out. They shut down unpromising wells and coaxed more out of others by hydraulic fracturing: driving high-pressure fluids down the wells to break up the rock and open new escape routes for the crude. "We went in and developed the fields the way ExxonMobil or ChevronTexaco would have done and are getting [production] increases of 20 percent a year," says Ray Leonard, an American oilman and a vice president of Yukos, one of Russia's two largest oil companies.

Russia is pumping nearly nine million barrels a day and exporting about two-thirds of it. Production would be even higher if Russia only had enough pipelines to get the oil to its borders. Says Eugene Khartukov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Petroleum Business Studies: "If the export routes are opened, the oil will fly like a cork from a bottle of ex-Soviet champagne."

But struggles between the oil companies and Russia's government, which owns the pipelines, have slowed the construction of new routes to an ice-free port in the west and to China and Japan, eager customers. And the jailing for alleged fraud and tax evasion of former Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a billionaire with political ambitions, has scared off foreign investors who could bankroll further upgrading of the fields. Even so, Russia's output is drawing uneasy glances from OPEC. A surge of Russian oil could undercut the cartel's effort to adjust its production to hold world oil prices between $22 and $28 a barrel.

Leonard puts Russian reserves at around a hundred billion barrels. Other experts say the companies haven't explored enough to know. Either way, even Russia has its limits, as Leonard acknowledges. He thinks Russia's oil output will crest in 10 to 15 years, putting OPEC firmly in control of prices again. "Around the middle of the next decade, the price of oil is going to go up and stay up," he says. If it does, an unusual kind of oil that exists far from the Middle East will become more alluring.

You can get a glimpse of it just north of Fort McMurray, a former fur trading outpost in the Canadian province of Alberta. Just where the highway crosses the Athabasca River, veins of black, tarry sand streak the riverbanks. On a hot day tar sand is sticky and smells like fresh asphalt-the smell of money the locals call it. No wonder they're smug. The tar-sand deposits here and elsewhere in Alberta hold the equivalent of more than 1.6 trillion barrels of oil-an amount that may exceed the world's remaining reserves of ordinary crude. But this is no ordinary crude. In fact, it's a residue created when conventional oil escaped from its birthplace deep in the Earth's crust and was degraded into tar by groundwater and bacteria.

Most of the tar sand lies too deep or in deposits too sparse to be exploited. But oil-sand companies got a boost in the 1990s as technology improved and Canada cut the first few years of the royalties that companies were required to pay. The Alberta government reckons that 174 billion barrels could now be tapped economically. Last year the U.S. Department of Energy agreed and included that number in Canada's proven reserves. The move catapulted Canada to second place in the ranking of oil-rich states, right behind Saudi Arabia-and ahead of Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait.

But standing at the edge of a 200-foot-deep (60-meter-deep) pit where giant electric- and diesel-powered shovels devour beds of oil sand, Shell Canada Senior Vice President Neil Camarta acknowledges that there's a big difference between the oil-sand riches and free-flowing crude. "It's not like the oil in Saudi Arabia. You see all the work we have to do; it doesn't just jump out of the ground." Shell's is one of three big operations that together wring more than 600,000 barrels of oil a day from the Athabasca sands. Every step of the way takes brute force.

The sand has to be strip-mined, 2 tons (1.8 metric tons) of it for each barrel of oil. Dump trucks the size of mini-mansions haul 400 tons (363 metric tons) in a single load, in beds heated during the subarctic winters so the sand doesn't freeze into a giant blob. Next to the mine, the sand goes into the equivalent of giant washing machines, where torrents of warm water and solvent rinse out the tar, or bitumen, leaving wet sand that is dumped in tailing ponds.

Even then the bitumen is not ready to be piped off to a refinery like ordinary crude. To turn it back into crude oil, the operations either cook it in cokers, where temperatures of 900 degrees Fahrenheit (500 degrees Celsius) break up the giant tar molecules, or heat it to lower temperatures and churn it with hydrogen gas and a catalyst. The result is a clean, low-sulfur crude-"beautiful stuff," says Camarta.

But producing it is not so pretty, he acknowledges. "This really is a big, big project," Camarta says of Shell's four-billion-U.S.-dollar mine and plant, which opened last year. "It has a big footprint too, and we don't hide that-a big environmental and a big social imprint."

Other oil-sand operations have left the land north of Fort McMurray pocked with mines and lakes of sludgy gray tailings. So far less than 20 percent of the disturbed land has been restored to grassland and forest. Dust, diesel exhaust, and sulfurous fumes pollute the air. It takes three barrels of water to extract each barrel of bitumen, and although the plants are careful to recycle water, they still draw heavily on the Athabasca River. Heating all that water takes vast amounts of natural gas. Worried about Canada's dwindling natural gas supplies, Alberta has even considered someday building a nuclear reactor smack in the tar-sands region to supply power and steam.

The local First Nations people-Canada's Native Americans-mourn the loss of once pristine land. In the village of Fort McKay 7 miles (11 kilometers) from Shell's mine, the company paid to build a community center on the poplar-clad banks of the Athabasca. Seated by a soaring fireplace bearing a Shell plaque, Chief Jim Boucher, president of the Athabasca Tribal Council, acknowledges that development has brought jobs and money. But the chief, who grew up trapping mink, muskrat, and beaver in intact forest, says: "In people's minds, what's going on is too much. We're losing too much of our land. The amount of destruction, especially in the minds of the elders, is horrendous."

Unless oil prices collapse, the destruction is likely to continue. With tar-sand production costs down to about ten dollars a barrel, the operations expect to make a handsome profit. Existing mines are expanding, and more companies are jumping in. Some are starting to exploit tar sands too deep to be mined, by forcing high-pressure steam down wells to melt out the bitumen. Production could reach two million barrels a day in a decade, according to the Alberta government.

That may be a comfort when the other up-and-coming oil fields of today start to dwindle, from the Gulf of Mexico to Russia. But the tar sands won't be enough to stave off new dependence on the volatile Middle East. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration projects that in 20 years, the Persian Gulf will supply between one-half and two-thirds of the oil on the world market-the same percentage as before the 1973 embargo. Fifty years later, in other words, the Middle East will have regained all its old power over oil-and the U.S. government knows it. Whether or not Washington's war in Iraq was directly motivated by oil, American planners clearly hoped it would lay the groundwork for a stable, democratic Middle East-which, among other benefits, would in Washington's view put the world's oil supply in more trustworthy hands.

Yet the real threat to the world economy 20 years from now may not be the policies of the Middle East. It may be a global shortage of conventional oil. These days a raging debate divides oil experts, with prophets of imminent shortage pitted against believers in at least a couple more decades of abundance. Pessimists note that oil prospectors had their best luck in the early 1960s, and that discoveries have slowed since then. They conclude that little conventional oil is left to be found and that the oil peak could be upon us by 2010. Optimists call that a naive extrapolation, which overlooks the economic and political factors that drive the search for oil. "People who are predicting an imminent peak are simply wrong," says Boston University's Kaufmann.

The argument ultimately depends on how much oil is left in the world's biggest wellspring of crude, the Middle East. With nearly two-thirds of proven conventional reserves, Middle Eastern lands will be the supply of last resort as oil production declines elsewhere. "We take it for granted that they'll come forth with whatever volume of oil is needed to balance supply and demand," says Robert Ebel, head of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Maybe not for long, says Matthew Simmons, president of the Houston energy-investment advisory bank Simmons and Company. He notes that Saudi Arabia, "the one country that we always assumed had fabulous reserves," hasn't found a big new field for decades. And in Saudi technical reports he sees hints of trouble: When water starts coming up a well, its productive life is over-and that's starting to happen in Saudi fields. If he's right, even the Middle East may fall short of growing demand sooner than expected.

On the optimistic side, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) concluded in a 2000 study that there's at least 50 percent more oil left than the pessimists believe, much of it in the Middle East. New technologies will wring additional supplies from existing fields, the USGS predicts, and vast new reserves remain to be found. Many economists agree, saying discoveries have fallen off simply because countries awash in oil like Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have had no incentive to drill for more. "If I'm an OPEC producer, with lots of spare capacity, why would I waste money looking for more reserves?" asks Kaufmann.

But in the end, "you're talking about a few years one way or another," says Cavallo, the Princeton consultant. Thomas Ahlbrandt, the geologist who led the USGS study, says that even the larger reserves he envisions can't sustain the world's growing thirst for oil indefinitely. "Oil and gas are limited," he says flatly. "My personal feeling is, we have a concern in the next couple of decades."

Either way, the crude won't suddenly dry up: Old oil fields don't die, they slowly fade away. But the world will face shortages more lasting than any 1970s oil shock-and some stark choices. Should we increase production from the Canadian tar sands and similar "heavy oil" deposits in Venezuela? Try to exploit the American West's vast deposits of oil shale and other organic-rich rock that yields oil when roasted? Both options carry heavy environmental costs. Or should we pin our hopes on finding new supplies of natural gas, extracting fuel from plant material, or building solar, wind, or nuclear plants to make hydrogen for fuel-cell vehicles? There are no easy options, and all will take time to explore.

Aboard the Enterprise drill ship in the deep Gulf, engineers and roughnecks are doing their best to postpone the day of reckoning. By the summer of 2003 they had brought the well under control and finished it, 15 million dollars over budget and a month behind schedule. "We did fight that well for a little while," says BP's Kirton wryly. Now they've moved on to other holes, laboring on a drilling floor slick with fluids while the ship battles the current and the bit gnaws through salt, shale, and sandstone toward the geologic legacy that fuels our way of life.

But at least some of the ingenuity and toil that goes into getting oil needs to go toward limiting our thirst for it. "People should be doing something now to reduce oil dependence and not waiting for Mother Nature to slap them in the face," says Cavallo.

With every visit to the gas pump, after all, the end of cheap oil draws closer.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.keywords[]
suvs oil energy gas fuel sources oil drilling gas

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Oil, Oil Reserves, Energy, Alternative Energy - National Geographic

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Below more than a mile (1.6 kilometers) of ocean and three more (4.8 kilometers) of mud and rock, the prize is waiting. At the surface a massive drilling vessel called the Discoverer Enterprise strains to reach it.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Oil is one of the earth's most valuable non-renewable resources, and these types of resources are named so because they are-well, non-renewable. Although there is plenty of organic matter that could potentially become oil over the next few million years, it is likely that humans will one day see the end of black gold as we know it.

So just how much oil do we have left? For decades, oil production has been steadily increasing, and energy experts have been attempting to calculate when we might run out. Those that have been following along will note that, despite the warnings of many would-be Nostradamuses, production is still on the rise and previous dead-end predictions have been pushed back.

The difficulty with estimating the amount of oil available for human use comes from varying definitions about how we should calculate our potential reserves. For example, one of the most-cited estimates comes from BP's BP prediction made on World Energy Day in 2014; based on reserve estimates of 1.688 trillion barrels, BP claimed the earth has enough oil left for about 53 more years at current production levels.

However, BP's estimate relies heavily on "proved reserves." This is a method of calculating how much drillable oil that we know of is under the ground. Every country calculates their proved reserves differently, but the figure is typically a representation of the amount of oil that companies think they can bring up using existing technology while still turning a profit.

Previous predictions that would have had oil reserves completely tapped by now were wrong because both production and proved reserves increased consistently. To clarify, the amount of oil that actually exists on the planet is significantly larger than the amount of oil that we currently think we can drill. Therefore, we may have significantly more than 53 years of oil remaining if drilling technologies can improve to the point that recovering the more difficult to reach oil becomes economically feasible.

Here's an interesting chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that should help you visualize what the amount of oil on Earth looks like:

Another thing to consider is that we are still discovering massive deposits of oil that were otherwise not known of. Last November, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that it discovered the biggest deposit of untapped oil in the United States. Located in the Wolfcamp shale formation in Texas, the new oil field has an estimated average of 20 billion barrels of oil.

To put that in perspective, the Prudhoe Bay formation in Alaska-the largest producing oil field in North America to date-has only produced roughly 12 billion barrels of oil in the past 43 years. The East Texas Field, which is the biggest producing oil field in the lower 48 states, has produced just over 7 billion barrels of oil since the 1930s.

Nevertheless, oil discoveries are slowing down. In fact, new data from the International Energy Agency suggests that conventional oil discovery investments fell to their lowest level in more than 70 years. Also the volume of resources sanctioned for development fell to 4.7 billion barrels last year, a drop of more than 30% year-over-year.

Notably, the IEA said that new activity in the offshore sector, which is considered a crucial component of future global supplies, was particularly weak. Only about 13% of all conventional resources sanctioned in 2016 were offshore, compared with an average of more than 40% over the previous 15 years.

For more on the future of the oil industry and the recent discovery in Texas, check out this episode of the Zacks Friday Finish Line podcast. The hosts discussed the new oil find and what it could mean for the near-term and long-term outlook of the energy business:
Want more stock market analysis from this author? Make sure to follow @ Ryan_McQueeney on Twitter! Wall Street's Next Amazon
Zacks EVP Kevin Matras believes this familiar stock has only just begun its climb to become one of the greatest investments of all time. It's a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in pure genius.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
US-OIL FUND LP (USO): ETF Research Reports PWRSH-DB OIL FD (DBO): ETF Research Reports OIL INDEX (UA) (OIL): ETF Research Reports PRO-ULT BB CRUD (UCO): ETF Research Reports BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report VS-3X LG CR OIL (UWT): ETF Research Reports VS-3X IN CR OIL (DWT): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Oil is one of the earth's most valuable non-renewable resources, and these types of resources are named so because they are-well, non-renewable. Although there is plenty of organic matter that could potentially become oil over the next few million years, it is likely that humans will one day see the end of black gold as we know it.

# data[].attributes.headline
The Changing Structure of the UK Economy...

# data[].attributes.subject
The Changing Structure of the UK Economy...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
The Changing Structure of the UK Economy - George F. Ray, 1986

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
If you have access to a journal via a society or association membership, please browse to your society journal, select an article to view, and follow the instructions in this box.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
I was scouring the web looking for fact ideas as we all are known to do, and I stumbled upon an interesting, if short, fact - the African country of Niger has a rapidly growing population. So rapid, in fact, that in 2015, more than 49% of the population was under the age of 15. Even more striking than this is the fact that more than 25% of the population was under the age of 5. This made me think about population pyramids, and how much I love them. So today, we'll do a little world tour of population pyramids that reflect many interesting historical and sociological phenomena.

For reference, there are a few types of populations pyramids, depicted below. They're quite simple charts, but are useful quick depictions of population trends - and if you find an interesting one, often a unique reflection of a country.

The convexity of the pyramid toward the top can be viewed as a measure of life expectancy/quality of long-term healthcare in the country. The more curvature towards the axis, the worse off the country is on these dimensions. On the other hand, the convexity towards the bottom is a measure of the rate of reproduction in the country. So back to this famous Niger pyramid.

As you can see, this is a pretty typical pyramid of a Stage 1 country. The degree to which it is though it pretty startling - the average woman bears 7.1 children. Average. Compare this pyramid to that of the US.

While more typical, there are still some interesting aspects here. The bulge around ages 50-70 is illustrative of the impact of baby boomers. Additionally, the top of graph convexity shows a pretty stark difference in aging/death between males and females. For example, there are ~40% more women in the 80-84 group than men. This jumps to 60% more women in the 85-89 group. If you look at this longitudinally, this means that 37.5% of men pass away in the transition from 80-84 to 85-89, versus only 27.3% of women. Stay safe, boyos. I'm tryna chill with y'all until the top of the pyramid.

There are also some good examples of countries in Stage 4, countries beset with contracting populations. Spain and Japan are notable examples - look how funky these pyramids are. These people need to get busy a little more.

Another super interesting one is China. As you know, China enacted a one-child policy in 1977. If there was an impact from that, you would see that in the 35-39 age group and younger in the 2015 data.

As you can see, this is exactly the age group affected, and it creates a odd "notch-like"shape in the pyramid. This would also imply that the impact of this policy was most powerful from 1977-1987, with the effect tapering off drastically from 1987-1992.

Another, much darker side effect of this policy relates to Chinese parents' preference for male vs. female children. We've all heard anecdotal evidence of the particularly heinous ways that this manifested itself (and the long-term sociological problems it has created), but the impact on population is clear - there were 1.26 male children born for every 1 female child in the early 1980's. Some of this effect has rounded off in this population pyramid, as young males are more likely to emigrate (especially if they're one of the 30 million men that can't find a wife because of the population imbalance). Still, there are 6% more men than women ages 25-39.

Speaking of the impact of immigration, this shows up in unique ways on some countries' population pyramids. Take Nepal, for example. The relative paucity of jobs here makes young Nepalese people, primarily men, apt to emigrate to neighboring countries to find work.

Look at how wonky and asymmetric this pyramid is. It looks like someone (India?) took a nice bite out of the left side of the pyramid around 25-39. This India hypothesis seems to also be borne out in the data.

On the other hand, some countries' pyramids are blown up by immigration. Take the Saudi Arabia or the UAE for example - this shit is crazy.

Anyway, hope y'all enjoyed this foray into the beautiful world of population pyramids.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
I was scouring the web looking for fact ideas as we all are known to do, and I stumbled upon an interesting, if short, fact - the African country of Niger has a rapidly growing population. So rapid, in fact, that in 2015, more than 49% of the population was under the age of 15.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
These countries are ranked highest - and lowest - for human development

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The UN's 2018 Human Development Index, which measures health, education and income, shows the alarming differences between the best and the worst performing countries.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
The rise of China: How 70 years of communist rule is shaping all our futures

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The rise of China: How 70 years of communist rule is shaping all our futures

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
When we hear the word "Superpower," what generally comes to our mind is the United States and the Former Soviet Union. Remember during the cold war. These two superpowers were locked in a state of geopolitical tension after World War II.

By definition, a superpower status means a state can project power on a global scale through economic, military and diplomatic influence. For now, regardless of the perception that the U.S power and control is in decline, the United States is the sole global superpower state in the 21st century. No nations come close; not China, Russia or even the European Union.

However, there are regional power states. These states exert power and influence within a geographic region of the world.

In the Americas, the United States is the primary power.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the major powers are Brazil and Mexico.

In Europe, we have Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.

In East Asia, we have China and Japan.

In the Indian subcontinent, India is the only power.

In West Asia, we have Israel and Saudi Arabia.

For now, I am interested in contenders on the African continent.
There are three contenders in the continent. In West Africa, Nigeria stands out. In North Africa, they are Egypt, and in Southern Africa, is South Africa.

Before I commence my analysis, I must say that this is quite a difficult task. Each country is a regional power within Africa, and their diplomatic strength, economic and military varies amongst each other.

None of the three countries have a holistic economic, diplomatic, and active military influence throughout the continent. They are more of regional power within the continent; Nigeria - West Africa, Egypt - North Africa, and South Africa - Southern Africa.

On the system of government, while South Africa and Nigeria are democratic - Egypt is not.

On energy, Egypt and Nigeria are net exporters while South Africa is a net importer.

On the economy, Egypt and South Africa have a diversified economy in terms of manufacturing and consumer sectors. Nigeria is a petrostate highly dependent on oil and gas exports.

On neighborhood, Egypt and Nigeria reside in an increasingly tricky geopolitical area. South Africa is safe in Southern Africa.

On rankings; Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt are the largest, the 2nd largest, and the 3rd largest economy in Africa respectively. Furthermore; Egypt, South Africa, and Nigeria are the largest, the 4th largest, and the 5th largest military force in Africa.

With over 192 million people, more than Russia and Japan, and still growing, the West African country of Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation.

It is surrounded by Niger, Benin, Cameroon, and Chad by land, and Equatorial Guinea & Sao Tome and Principe by sea.

Economically speaking, Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa, and the 30th largest economy worldwide. Its principal exports are mainly Crude oil and LNG. The top trading partners of Nigeria are India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, France, and the Netherlands.

In pursuing the aim of regional economic cooperation and development, Nigeria helped create the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to complement trade and investment practices for the 16 West African member states.

Though Nigeria boasts Africa's largest economy, unfortunately, its march towards development has been chained by rampant and out of control corruption, disgraceful lack of infrastructure simmering tribal conflicts, the insurgency war with Boko Haram.

Being a significant export of crude oil and gas, it's no surprise that the country is home to 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (10th largest) and 199 trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas (9th largest). Nigeria is the 13th largest producer of petroleum in the world. Oil revenues account for 80% government revenue and 95% of foreign exchange earnings.

Much of oil wealth originates from the Niger Delta region. The Delta region's strategic position on the Atlantic is a vital maritime passageway for Nigeria to move crude oil to international markets. Unfortunately, the Niger Delta is now a hotbed of militants characterized by extensive poverty, youth unemployment, environmental degradation, and attacks on vessels & crew members. Instability in the Niger Delta not only undermine Nigeria's economic stability but also risk worsening maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea.

Militarily, the Nigerian's military is the largest in West Africa, 5th largest in Africa, and 4 3rd in global military strength. However, low operational readiness, endemic corruption, human rights abuses, the lack of investment in training, failure to maintain equipment has damaged Nigeria's armed forces, and have made it a dull giant resting on its reputation as more capable than any other army in the West African sub-region. Most of Nigeria's equipment is not serviceable and inadequate in quantity. For instance, the Nigeria Military has just over 250 main battle tanks, 140 light tanks, 317 tracked armored personnel carriers, 550 reconnaissance vehicles, and over 200,000 personnel to defend a country twice the size of California. No wonder that unlike the Nigerian ECOWAS peacekeepers in the 1990s, that were effective in curbing ethnic bloodshed in Liberia and Sierra Leone, it has proven incapable of defending its citizens in the North East against Boko Haram.

Nigeria has multiple advantages; the most populous country in Africa, a cultural center, the Africa economic powerhouse, and fifth military power of the continent, and a significant factor of stability in the sub-region of West Africa.

Located at the southern tip of the African continent is South Africa.

The country borders Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. It has been the leading power in the southern half of Africa for more than a century. During the colonial era, the British established control over key ports at Durban & Cape Town, and secondary ports at Port Elizabeth to protect the sea-lanes rounding the Cape of Good Hope.

The Cape of Good Hope, located on the southern tip of South Africa, is a critical passage point for oil tanker shipments around the globe. Over 5.8 million b/d of seaborne-traded crude oil flow around the Cape of Good Hope both eastward and westward directions. Since the opening of the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope has lost some of its strategic importance. However, the Cape is still an essential passage for trade relations between Latin America and East, South and South-East Asia. The Cape of Good Hope is an alternative sea route for vessels wanting to bypass Bab El-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal due to an accident, military action, or terrorism.

Economically, South Africa is the 2nd largest export economy in Africa and the 31st largest economy globally. South Africa, is the continent's most advanced economy and is the continent's leading FDI destination ahead of Morocco, Kenya, and Nigeria. The top exports of South Africa are Cars, Gold, Diamonds, and Platinum. South Africa's key trading partners include China, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and India.

Militarily, South Africa possess 4th largest military in Africa, and ranked 33rd worldwide, above prominent European countries like Norway and Switzerland. South Africa has over 100,000 total military personnel. Equipment includes 17 fighter aircraft, 100 transport aircraft, 94 total helicopters, 12 attack helicopters, 195 combat tanks, 2,265 armored fighting vehicles, and 4 frigates.

The country uses its significantly advanced military for peacekeeping and international cooperation. In short to medium term, South Africa does not face any serious threat on its borders.

South Africa has multiple advantages as well. It is the most advanced economy in Africa, the fourth military power of the continent, and home to strategic Cape of Good Hope. Also, South Africa's three significant airports in Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg, are regularly ranked among the top 10 best airports in Africa.

In North East Africa, along with the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, lies Egypt.

Libya, Sudan, and Israel border it by land and Cyprus, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Greece by sea. Egypt controls the Suez Canal that connects the Mediterranean (Europe) and the Red Sea (Indian Ocean). Therefore, making it an essential trade route between Asia and Europe.

Egypt shares borders with Libya, Sudan, and Israel by land and Cyprus, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Greece by sea. With a population of 94.8 million, Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world and the second-most populous on the African Continent. Nevertheless, by 2050, Egypt's population will reach 150 million. As the population grows to 200 million by 2100, Egyptian urban centers will struggle seriously to housing, health care, and education services. Sure Egypt is a large country, more than 1 million square kilometers that is twice the size of France. However, most of its territory is a wasteland. Less than 35,000 of those 1 million square kilometers are habitable. This tiny area of massive Egypt from Aswan High Dam to the Mediterranean shore is the Egyptian core and home to 99% of its population.
The vast majority of its people live along the banks of the Nile River. In Ancient times, Egypt was part of the ancient Silk Road route from Asia to Africa & Europe. 80% of crude oil exports from Persian Gulf suppliers to European countries pass through the Suez Canal. About 10% of all international trade goes through Egypt's Suez Canal, cutting off ship journeys from Asia to Europe. In the event of blockage of the Suez Canal due to accident, terrorism or warfare, shipments from the Persian Gulf to Houston would increase by 2,660 miles; shipments to Rotterdam will go up by another 4,800 miles, and to Italy by 10,860 miles.

Economically, Egypt is the 3rd largest economy in Africa, and the 43rd largest economy worldwide. The top exports of Egypt are Crude Petroleum, Gold, Nitrogenous Fertilizers, and Refined Petroleum. Principal trading partners of Egypt are the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Italy Turkey, the United States, and Germany.

Already, Egypt is emerging as a significant gas producer and exporter. The Zohr gas field, with 30 Trillion standard cubic feet in reserves, commenced production in December 2017. Zohr is the most significant gas discovery made in Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The field produces 2 bcf/d.

Militarily, Egypt's armed forces are the largest in the region, totaling roughly 1.3 million personnel to bolster stability and moderation in the Middle East and North Africa. Egypt has provided military assistance and training to many African and Arab states. Also, it is the third largest arms importer in the world (after India and Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, it has purchased states of the art weapons like the F-16 fighter jets, the Apache Attack Helicopters, Main Battle tanks, Mistral-class amphibious assault ship, and Frigates. As Egypt fights ISIS militants in the Sinai Peninsula and its western neighbor Libya, expect more weapon imports from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

The Winner of the contest

Nigeria could become Africa's only global superpower. Already, It is Africa's biggest economy and has a decent record of regional engagement in West Africa. By 2040 it will be the fourth largest country in the world after India, China, and the United States with 320-million people. Unfortunately, Nigeria is presently a crisis-ridden country primarily hampered by weakness in the criminal justice system, endemic corruption, insecurity, no coherent foreign policy, disgraceful lack of infrastructure, high of unemployment, the failure to deal with the fundamental problems in the Niger-Delta. Yes, Nigeria is a significant oil producer, but the U.S., Angola, and Brazil are challenging Nigeria's status. According to the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Report 2018, Nigeria ranks 145th out of 190 countries. its massive infrastructural deficit is the primary reason. Thus, Infrastructure is vital for businesses to flourish. Nigeria must overhaul its infrastructure, especially electricity, railways, roads, and aviation networks.

South Africa is the only African member of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the G20, but it is not expected to grow in power and influence internationally and Africa. It contributes fewer peacekeepers to United Nations missions than Ethiopia, Egypt, and Nigeria. Furthermore, the country is struggling to address apartheid-era imbalances in decent housing, power, education, and health care, and other infrastructures.

Even that Nigeria and South Africa have serious internal problems, and Egypt is punching above its weight internationally with a powerful voice in the Middle East and Africa, Egypt is the Winner.

Egypt's military strength is the strongest in Africa and one of the best in the Middle East as well. It has nearly 10,000 armored fighting vehicles, 60,000 logistical vehicles, and 900 aircraft. The Egyptian military provides security protection to much of the Arab world. Also, it controls the Suez Canal that connects the Mediterranean and the Red Sea for trade between Europe and Asia. About 10% of all international trade goes through Egypt's Suez Canal, cutting off ship journey time.

Its strategic importance as a regional power increases its value to greater powers like Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union as they pursue their goals in Africa and the Middle East.
There you have it, Egypt is my opinion, is a significant power on the African continent.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Africa Superpower Contenders - Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
When we hear the word "Superpower," what generally comes to our mind is the United States and the Former Soviet Union. Remember during the cold war. These two superpowers were locked in a state of geopolitical tension after World War II.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
How unequal is Britain and are the poor getting poorer?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The UK is the fifth most unequal country in Europe but has taken steps to reduce disparities of income

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
4. The UK's population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously

The UK population has grown year-on-year since 1982 as seen in Figure 1. The 2018 mid-year population estimates release showed that the population of the UK reached 66.4 million, up from 66.0 million in mid-2017. This population growth marks an increase of 0.6%, or an addition of 395,000 people, between mid-2017 and mid-2018 - the same rate of population growth as in the previous year. Growth in the years to mid-2017 and mid-2018 were slower than in any year since mid-2004.

Despite the recent slowdown in population growth rates, the UK population is set to increase further still. The 2016-based national population projections showed that the projected population surpasses 70.1 million by mid-2029 and reaches 72.9 million by mid-2041 - increases of 5.5% and 9.7%, respectively, from mid-2018.

Figure 1: The UK's population has grown year-on-year since 1982

UK population estimates and projections, 1951 to 2041

Source: Office for National Statistics

Download this chart

Image.csv.xls

All four of the UK's constituent countries (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) continue to contribute to the UK's annual growth. England's population has continued to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the UK in the year to mid-2018. The contributions from all the four constituent countries are as follows:

England's population grew by 358,000 to 56 million (up 0.6% from mid-2017)

Northern Ireland's population grew by 11,000 to 1.9 million (up 0.6% from mid-2017)

Scotland's population grew by 13,000 to 5.4 million (up 0.2% from mid-2017)

Wales's population grew by 13,000 to 3.1 million (up 0.4% from mid-2017)

Figure 2 displays how the population growth rate also differs at a local level. The four fastest-growing local authorities are in London. The City of London's population has increased by the largest proportion in the last five years. However, this local authority continues to have the second-smallest population within the UK, after the Isles of Scilly.

Other areas that have shown large proportional population increases between mid-2013 and mid-2018 include:

Tower Hamlets' population increased by 16% (from 274,000 to 318,000)

Camden's population increased by 14% (from 230,000 to 262,000)

Westminster's population increased by 13% (from 225,000 to 255,000)

Many of the 23 local authorities with decreasing populations over the last five years are in coastal areas with older populations. Ceredigion (in Wales) has shown the largest proportional decrease in population over the last five years with a 4% decrease between mid-2013 and mid-2018, falling from 75,800 to 73,000. Inverclyde (in Scotland) and Copeland (in the North West of England) had the second- and third-largest proportional decreases (3% and 2%, respectively).

Figure 2: The population growth rate differs at a local level

Population growth by local area mid-2013 to mid-2018, local authorities in UK

Families and households

In this section, the following definitions are used:

a family is a married, civil partnered or cohabiting couple with or without children, or a lone parent with at least one child, who live at the same address; children may be dependent or non-dependent ¹

a household is one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room or dining area; a household can consist of a single family, more than one family, or no families in the case of a group of unrelated people

As the UK's population grows, so does the number of families and households. In 2018, the number of households in the UK was 27.6 million, representing an increase of 7% from 2008 (25.9 million).

In 2018, there were 19.1 million families living in the UK, which shows an increase of 8% from 2008 (17.7 million):

there were 12.8 million married couple or civil partnership families (67%)

there were 3.4 million cohabiting couple families (18%)

there were 2.9 million lone parent families (15%)

Cohabiting couple families are the fastest-growing family type; since 2008, there have been an additional 700,000 cohabiting couple families (a growth rate of 25.8% over this period). Meanwhile, more young adults are living with their parents. In 2018, the first age at which more than 50% of young people left the parental home was 23. Two decades earlier, more than 50% of 21-year-olds had already left home. Young men aged 20 to 34-years-old living in the UK are more likely than young women to be living with their parents (31% and 20% respectively).

In addition, we are seeing increases in the numbers of people who are living alone - between 2008 and 2018, there has been a 6% increase (from 7.5 million to 8.0 million). This increase was driven primarily by the increase in the number of older men living alone; a 55% increase for men aged 65 to 74 years and a 20% increase for men aged 75 years and over. In 2018, nearly half of those living alone (48%) were aged 65 years and over, and more than one out of every four (27%) were aged 75 years and over.

Notes for: The UK's population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously

Families and household statistics explained provides further explanation of the families and households definitions that are used.
Back to table of contents

5. Migration to the UK has been the main driver of population growth since the 1990s

Change in population size has four components: births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

The difference between the number of births and deaths is referred to as "natural change". When natural change is positive, there have been more births and deaths in the considered timeframe. When it is negative, there have been more deaths than births.

The difference between the number of immigrants (people moving into the UK for more than 12 months) and the number of emigrants (people moving out of the UK for more than 12 months) is termed "net migration".

Natural change

In 2018, the UK experienced a natural change of 115,000 with 731,000 live births and 616,000 deaths ¹ - the lowest level of natural change since 2003.

Analysis of the births data in England and Wales in 2018 shows that the number of live births was the lowest recorded since 2005 and the birth rate was the lowest ever recorded (11.1 live births per 1,000 total population). Analysis of deaths registered in England and Wales: 2018 shows the highest number of deaths since 1999 - however, when taking into account the age and size of the population, death rates have remained more or less stable since 2011.

The natural change data presented in Figure 3 are for calendar years and so will differ from the natural change component of change for the population estimates, which are calculated for mid-years (reference date 30 June).

Figure 3: Natural change in 2018 was at its lowest level since 2013

UK births, deaths and natural change, 1951 to 2018

Source: Office for National Statistics - births in England and Wales, and mortality statistics, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, National Records of Scotland

Download this chart

Image.csv.xls

Fluctuations in natural change have historically mirrored fluctuations in births. For example, Figure 3's left-most peak in natural change corresponds to the 1960s baby boom, which subsided in the 1970s. The second upturn in natural change is an "echo effect" of the first, whereby baby boomers are having children of their own. Births peaked again more recently in 2012, at 813,000. Since 2012, there has been a reduction in the number of live births of 10% to 731,000, this reduction is mirrored in the reduction in natural change.

The long-term trend in the number of deaths is more stable than in the number of births. The total number of deaths peaked in 1976 at 681,000. Much of the gradual decline in the number of deaths from 1985 and 2011 has been driven by people living longer. Then as a larger number of people reach older ages there has consequently been a general increase in the number of deaths since 2011, thus contributing to the decline in natural change.

The breakdown of natural change for England, Wales and Scotland for the calendar year ending December 2018 is as follows:

England's natural change was 120,000 (with 626,000 births and 506,000 deaths)

Wales's natural change was negative 4,000 (with 31,000 births and 36,000 deaths) ²

Scotland's natural change was negative 7,000 (with 51,000 births and 59,000 deaths) ³

Data for Northern Ireland are available for the calendar year ending December 2017:

Northern Ireland's natural change was 7,000 (with 23,000 births and 16,000 deaths)

For a detailed time series on each country, please see Births in England and Wales summary tables, Death registration summary tables - England and Wales, and Scotland's Vital Events Reference Tables 2018. Updated data for Northern Ireland will be available later this year, upon release of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency's 2018 Registrar General Annual Report.

The average number of children a woman has during her lifetime is declining

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the hypothetical average number of children a woman would have in her childbearing years if she were to experience the age-specific fertility rates of the year in question. TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is the number of children a woman would need to have to sustain current population levels (ignoring migration) - also known as the replacement fertility level.

Figure 4 displays how TFR has changed over time. The TFR hit an all-time low in 2001 for the UK with an average of 1.63 children per woman. Following this low, the TFR increased and stabilised at an average of 1.92 children per woman in 2012. In 2013, there was a substantial drop in UK TFR to 1.83. The TFR has since continued to decline - and in 2017, the average number of children per woman was 1.74.

Figure 4: The UK Total Fertility Rate has been declining since 2012

total fertility rates, UK, 1980 to 2017

Source: Total fertility rate (TFR) calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) using birth registration data and population estimates from ONS, National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency (NISRA)

Download this chart

Image.csv.xls

Age-specific fertility rates show a decline in fertility rates at younger ages and rises at older ages. Between 2016 and 2017, all age groups, except women aged over 40 years, have seen decreases in fertility rates. Women aged over 40 years have continued to have higher age-specific fertility rates than those aged under 20 years.

Net migration

For the majority of the 20th century, natural change was the main driver of UK population growth, with net migration a secondary factor. In the 1990s, however, net migration increased in influence and has been the main source of growth since 1998.

!

Long-term international migration data show that migrants continue to add to the UK population, as an estimated 226,000 more people moved to the UK with an intention to stay 12 months or more than left in the year ending March 2019 (net migration). This is lower than the recent peak of 343,000 in the year ending June 2015, however, levels have remained broadly stable since the end of 2016. Over the last year, 612,000 people moved to the UK (immigration) and 385,000 left the UK (emigration) (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Long-term immigration, emigration and net migration have remained broadly stable since the end of 2016

Long-term international migration, UK, year ending Jun 2009 to year ending March 2019

Although overall migration levels have remained broadly stable since 2016, there are different patterns for EU and non-EU citizens. EU net migration has decreased since 2015, following a three-year period of increase. Non-EU net migration has remained broadly stable over the last year, following a gradual increase since 2013.

Decisions to migrate are complex and a person's decision to move to or from the UK will always be influenced by a range of social and economic factors.

Naturally, international migration also affects the nationality and country of birth compositions of the UK. Since 2004 ⁴, the resident number of non-British nationals and non-UK-born individuals has grown year-on-year (Figure 6). It is important to note that country of birth refers to the country a person was born in, so this will not change, whereas nationality is self-reported by the respondent when they are interviewed so this is subject to change ⁵.

Figure 6: The population of non-British nationals and those born outside the UK have both increased

Non-British and non-UK-born populations of the UK by country of birth and nationality, 2008 and 2018

Source: Office for National Statistics - Annual Population Survey

Download this chart

Image.csv.xls

In 2018, about 85.7% of the UK population were UK-born and about 90.7% were British nationals - down from about 88.9% and 93.1%, respectively, in 2008.

Poland remains the most common non-UK country of birth, having taken over from India in 2015, and Polish has been the most common non-British nationality in the UK since 2008. Despite this, the largest annual decrease was seen in the Polish-born population (decreasing by 90,000 to 832,000 in 2018). Poland has also seen the largest annual decrease in nationals (decreasing by 116,000 to 905,000 in 2018).

The largest annual increases in 2018 were in the Italian-born population (increasing by 21,000 to 253,000) and Brazilian nationals (increasing by 19,000 to 59,000).

Notes for: Migration to the UK has been the main driver of population growth since the 1990s

1. The 2018 figure has been estimated using births and deaths from 2017 for Northern Ireland; the 2018 figures will be available later this year. 2018 figures have been used for England, Scotland and Wales.

2. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

3. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

4. 2004 was the year reporting of nationality began - for the Annual Population Survey.

5. Full details of definitions can be found in International Migration terms, definitions and frequently asked questions.

Back to table of contents

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Overview of the UK population - Office for National Statistics

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
4. The UK's population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously The UK population has grown year-on-year since 1982 as seen in Figure 1. The 2018 mid-year population estimates release showed that the population of the UK reached 66.4 million, up from 66.0 million in mid-2017.

# data[].attributes.headline
CASE STUDY --> Bristol's Temple Quarter...

# data[].attributes.subject
CASE STUDY --> Bristol's Temple Quarter...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
One of the UK's largest urban regeneration projects, in the centre of Bristol.

# data[].attributes.headline
Counter-urbanisation from the UK's capital... 

# data[].attributes.subject
Counter-urbanisation from the UK's capital... 

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
It's no secret that London has a very successful economy, not just compared with the rest of the UK but with other international cities too.

Over the past decade its economy has expanded by a fifth. Ever more shops, restaurants and bars have opened to serve its residents.

As a result the population of London and the urban area surrounding it has grown significantly, increasing by 1.1 million between 2008 and 2017 to 10 million people.

Yet despite this success story, not everything is going its way.

Many more people pack their bags and leave the capital for elsewhere in England and Wales than make the journey the other way.

Over the past decade, about 550,000 more Britons left London than moved to it.

This trend is not unique to London; it is seen in many big US cities, including New York, Miami, Chicago and Los Angeles.

So why has the capital's population continued to grow despite so many people leaving? It can be explained by two factors.

The first was its birth rate: 790,000 more people were born in London than died between 2009 and 2017.

The second factor was international immigration. There was an increase of 860,000 between 2009 and 2017, with more than half coming from the EU. By 2017, 3.6 million people living in the city were born overseas.

Of the Britons moving to the capital, a look at their ages reveals a great deal.

A large number of people move to London in their 20s, drawn from all corners of the country.

This is because of the range and number of job opportunities that the capital offers.

But among almost every other age group, the capital sees more people leaving than arriving.

This is most pronounced for very young children, people aged 18-20 and people in their 30s.

A look at where people move to after leaving the capital offers an insight into why this happens.

The 18-20 age group spreads out across the country, especially going to cities such as Nottingham, Coventry and Brighton. The most common reason is to start university.

It is safe to assume the other age groups - the children up to four years old and the 30-somethings - are leaving together. Paddington train station isn't full of unaccompanied toddlers with their suitcases.

These are the young families moving out of the capital, very often in search of homes for less than London's notoriously high prices.

Yet this does not mean that they are giving up on London altogether and returning "home" to the other parts of the country they first moved from.

Unlike people moving for university, many stay within commuting distance.

Two-thirds of these age groups remain in what might be called "the Greater South East" - an area stretching from Southampton up to Milton Keynes and across to Norfolk.

So while they no longer live in the city, they still have the option to work there.

And the 800,000 people who commute into London each day - more than the entire population of cities such as Leeds and Bristol - suggest that many of them do.

Among those Londoners who remain past their 30s more continue to leave than arrive, albeit in smaller numbers.

These flows of people - the arrival of large numbers of young people and the departure of many of those who are older - also explains why London is such a young city.

With an average age of 37, its population is the sixth youngest of any large town or city in the UK. Oxford, Cambridge and Coventry all have populations with an average age under 36, while in Swansea and Sunderland, the oldest, it is 41.

London's experience differs to other big British cities.

Places like Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle and Nottingham have also seen their population and economies grow. But the waves of people arriving and leaving are very different.

They see two waves of people leaving - one for those aged 21-30 (many of whom head to London) and a second for people aged over 30.

The inflow and first wave of out-migration is related to universities.

These cities have a number of universities in them and attract many thousands of students from across the country, including London.
More stories like this
But many of these students leave the cities behind as easily as they moved to them once they graduate.

Taking Liverpool as an example, it sees an inflow of people aged 18-20 from almost every other city in England and Wales. But the opposite trend is seen for 21 to 30-year-olds, with the city losing more of this age group to almost every other city than it gains.

However, it is crucial to note that some of these students do stay on.

In the case of Liverpool, one in five of the students who move to the city for university make it their home after graduation. And so the number of highly qualified young people living in the city increases overall.

But like London, these big cities also experience a second wave of people leaving when they hit their 30s.

And like the capital, these people don't move very far, once again looking for somewhere for their families to live.

For example, people leaving Birmingham tend to head for places like Shropshire or Staffordshire. And people leaving Newcastle mainly move to neighbouring Northumberland and County Durham.

These patterns show that different places offer different things to people as they get older.

The vibrancy and job opportunities offered by our biggest cities appeal to students and young professionals. This shapes these cities in terms of the shops, bars and other facilities they offer.

But among older residents, the desire for things like more space and a less urban environment grows, and many move out.

It reminds us that cities are not islands, with residents flowing in and out of them depending on their stage of life.

With it comes the challenge of making sure there is the right type of housing where people want to live and the transport to get them about.
About this piece
This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation.

Andrew Carter is chief executive and Paul Swinney is director at the Centre for Cities, which describes itself as working to understand how and why economic growth and change takes place in the UK's cities.

This piece uses data from the ONS on England and Wales's 58 largest urban areas. Comparable data is not available for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Edited by Duncan Walker

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
It's no secret that London has a very successful economy, not just compared with the rest of the UK but with other international cities too. Over the past decade its economy has expanded by a fifth. Ever more shops, restaurants and bars have opened to serve its residents.

# data[].attributes.headline
CASE STUDY --> Changes and Challenges in Rio

# data[].attributes.subject
CASE STUDY --> Changes and Challenges in Rio

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Case study - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Challenges and opportunities for urban areas - OCR - GCSE Geography Revision - OCR - BBC Bitesize

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Learn about and revise the challenges that some British cities face, including regeneration and urban sustainability, with GCSE Bitesize Geography (OCR).

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Rio de Janeiro's mountainside favelas are as iconic as some of the city's famous landmarks - but offer a completely different perspective to the main tourist sites. Formerly dangerous no-go areas, many are now safe and open, welcoming visitors on favela tours and music nights at bars held within the communities
Dom Phillips visits four Rio favelas

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Rio de Janeiro's mountainside favelas are as iconic as some of the city's famous landmarks - but offer a completely different perspective to the main tourist sites.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Table of Contents

favela, also spelled favella, in Brazil, a slum or shantytown located within or on the outskirts of the country's large cities, especially Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. A favela typically comes into being when squatters occupy vacant land at the edge of a city and construct shanties of salvaged or stolen materials.

Some have identified the origins of the favela in the Brazilian communities formed by impoverished former slaves in the late 19th century, but it was the great wave of migration from the countryside to the cities from the 1940s to the 1970s that was primarily responsible for the proliferation of favelas in Brazil. Poor and confronted with exorbitant costs for scarce land and housing, those rural migrants had little choice but to become squatters. From 1950 to 1980 the number of people living in favelas in Rio de Janeiro alone increased from about 170,000 to more than 600,000, and by the early 21st century it was estimated that there were as many as 1,000 favelas there. According to the 2010 census, 6 percent of Brazil's total population lived in favelas.

There are a variety of theories regarding how and when the term favela was first applied to squatter communities. It seems likely that it was taken from the name of a plant ( Jatropha phyllacantha) native to rural northeastern Brazil.

Favelas are located most often on the periphery of large cities. Some of the best-known favelas are those that cling to steep hillsides in Rio de Janeiro. Favela housing generally begins with makeshift structures fashioned from wood scraps and daub. Over time more-durable materials such as brick, cinder blocks, and sheet metal are incorporated. The lack of infrastructure gives rise to improvised and jerry-rigged plumbing and electrical wiring. Often water must be ported great distances, and rudimentary methods of waste disposal pose health hazards. As a result of the crowding, unsanitary conditions, poor nutrition, and pollution, disease is rampant in the poorer favelas, and infant mortality rates are high.

A wide variety of small businesses exist in favelas and serve the needs of the community, but the favelas are also frequently crime-ridden and have long been dominated by gangs immersed in illegal drug trafficking. Police presence is sporadic, and local militias have developed in response to the gangs-only to supplant them in some cases in exploiting the favelados, as the residents of the favelas are known. An array of social and religious organizations have also developed in favelas, as have associations targeted at obtaining rights and services. Over the years the Brazilian government has taken a number of different approaches in dealing with favelas, from programs to eradicate the favelas to efforts to provide or improve infrastructure and permanent housing.

Jeff Wallenfeldt

New from Britannica

See All Good Facts

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
favela, also spelled favella, in Brazil, a slum or shantytown located within or on the outskirts of the country's large cities, especially Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. A favela typically comes into being when squatters occupy vacant land at the edge of a city and construct shanties of salvaged or stolen materials.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Online Teaching Resources - Geographical Association

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Browse hundreds of Online Teaching Resources including case studies, videos, activities and content units on a range of geography topics.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
'Megacities', a future challenge

#environmental sustainability #society

Tokyo (Japan) is currently the largest 'megacity' in the world with 37.4 million inhabitants. In 2100 it will be Lagos (Nigeria) with 88 million. The number of these urban centres are astounding and in a short period of time they will become a great challenge for humanity at a demographic, migratory, socio-economic, political and environmental level.

Dozens of people crossing a zebra crossing, a constellation of red lights on the tarmac and a chaotic orchestra of thundering horns. In large cities there are more and more of us and this image is now part of our day-to-day life. On the other hand, villages are emptied with an endless diaspora and the howl of the wind becomes the only company of its aged inhabitants. The concentration of world population in urban centres is an increasing trend. In 2015, according to UN data, 54% of the population - some 3.96 billion people - lived in cities. In 2030, this will grow to 60%. This percentage means that the urban centres will receive approximately 5,000 million souls.

One of the consequences is that the number of megacities, those exceeding 10 million inhabitants, will multiply and this concept will slowly replace big cities. We do not know if in the future cars will fly through the sky, one of science fiction's obsessions, but what we do know is where most of these megalopolises will be located: in emerging countries. In the medium term, in Asian countries such as China and India to then hand over the baton to African countries such as Nigeria or Tanzania. The demographic, migratory, socio-economic, political and environmental changes causing the rise of these megacities are somewhat more uncertain.

Throughout history, people have migrated to large urban centres in search of opportunities. In forthcoming years, economic reasons will continue to drive this kind of migration. The megalopolises will capture a high percentage of the world's wealth and their enormous potential will attract thousands of people. Dan Hoornweg, a professor at the Ontario University and author of the study Population predictions for the world's largest cities in the 21 st century with Kevin Pope, warns of a possible exception: "The fear is that African cities will increase their population without a proportional growth of their economy. And this would be a risk to the quality of life of its inhabitants.

Most populated cities in 2019

(expressed in millions of people)

Most populated cities in 2100

(expressed in millions of people)

Sources: World City Populations 2019 and Populations predictions for the world largest cities in the 21st century, Dan Hoornweg and Kevin Pope.

How do you live in a megacity? Researchers warn that urban centres with over 50 million people are an enormous challenge from the perspective of basic services and minimum infrastructure required and authorities are faced with answering that question. The construction of, for example, roads or the underground can take decades before they are finalized and run the risk of not keeping up with the pace of population growth. Such an increase will lead to changes in production and consumption patterns which, sooner rather than later, will begin to collide with a lack of limited natural resources. Another challenge politics will have to deal with is climate change. Many of these megacities are located in coastal areas and, depending of how the environmental conditions evolve, it is likely that parts their land end up below the water.

SOLUTIONS WILL COME FROM INNOVATION

Innovation will be key in responding to the problems arising from the development of these megalopolises. The following are some of the most important initiatives to try to solve them:

It is clear that how megacities continue to produce and consume energy and goods will be crucial to their social, ecological and economic survival. Here, the policies on environmental sustainability will be key to face, with hope, one of the greatest challenges that lies ahead for humanity.
Eco-neighbourhoods: a future commitment for sustainable cities The most sustainable cities in the worlds Kiribati, the first country rising sea levels will swallow up as a result of climate change

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Tokyo (Japan) is currently the largest 'megacity' in the world with 37.4 million inhabitants. In 2100 it will be Lagos (Nigeria) with 88 million. The number of these urban centres are astounding and in a short period of time they will become a great challenge for humanity at a demographic, migratory, socio-economic, political and environmental level.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Britain's flood planners must prepare for the worst on climate change, the Environment Agency has warned.

Its chair, Emma Howard Boyd, said on current trends, global temperature could rise between 2C and 4C by 2100 and £1bn a year would need to be spent on flood management.

She said some communities may even need to move because of the risk of floods.

The government said it would be seeking evidence for its own flood policy in the autumn.

Ms Howard Boyd, launching the consultation on the agency's flood strategy, said government policy should ensure that all publicly-funded infrastructure is resilient to flooding and coastal change by 2050.

"We can't win a war against water by building away climate change with infinitely high flood defences," she said.

She called for more to be done to encourage property owners to rebuild homes after flooding in better locations, and with improvements such as raised electrics, hard flooring and flood doors, rather than just "recreating what was there before".

However, she warned that in some places "the scale of the threat may be so significant that recovery will not always be the best long term solution" and communities would need help to "move out of harm's way".

The agency expects more intense bursts of rain and continuing coastal erosion.

It calculates that for every person who suffers flooding, about 16 more are affected by loss of services such as power, transport and telecommunications.

Ms Howard Boyd warned that climate change and population growth in England meant that properties built in the floodplain will double over the next 50 years.

The agency points towards research from the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership which suggests that losses on UK mortgages could also double if global temperatures increase by 2C and triple if warming hits 4C.

These would be insurance-related losses related to outcomes of climate change such as more extreme weather.

Ms Howard-Boyd said the government's six-year flood programme had given flood and coastal protection "a shot in the arm", but she warned that more will be needed.

Environment Minister Therese Coffey said: "Flooding and coastal erosion can have terrible consequences for people, businesses and the environment.

"That's why we are already providing £2.6bn over six years, delivering more than 1,500 projects to better protect 300,000 homes."

But she added that "the threat of climate change will mean an increasing risk and preparing the country is a priority for the government, and the nation as a whole".

In a statement, Friends of the Earth said: "Smarter adaptation and resilience building - including natural flood management measures like tree-planting - is undeniably important.

"But the focus must be first and foremost on slashing emissions so that we can avoid the worst consequences of climate chaos in the first place.

"With its relentless pursuit of fracking, airport expansion, and road building, and barely tepid support for renewable energy, our government is failing with this regard."

Follow Roger on Twitter.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
UK flood planners 'must prepare for worst'

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Britain's flood planners must prepare for the worst on climate change, the Environment Agency has warned. Its chair, Emma Howard Boyd, said on current trends, global temperature could rise between 2C and 4C by 2100 and £1bn a year would need to be spent on flood management.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.provider_name
Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
New figures released by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) suggest that the economic losses from flood and storm damage over the last couple of months will exceed those from two years ago during the wettest winter on record.

The ABI estimates that its members will pay out about £1.3 billion for claims following a series of storms and heavy rainfall.

Calculations of the economic losses from the winter 2013-14 have been completed by the Environment Agency but have not yet been published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. In March 2014, the ABI indicated that insurance claims would cost £1.1 billion, including £446 million for businesses and homes that were flooded.

The bill for damage so far this winter will also exceed the estimated £600 million in losses caused by flooding in autumn 2012, but will be much less than the £3.2 billion cost of summer floods in 2007.

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, which was published in 2012, concluded that losses from coastal and river flooding in England and Wales could rise from an annual average of about £1.2 billion today to between £1.6 and £6.8 billion by the 2050s.

Cause of the recent floods

The floods in northern England and parts of Scotland over the past couple of months have been caused by record rainfall. Last month was not just the wettest December for the UK since Met Office records began in 1910, but the wettest calendar month of any year. Rainfall was well above average, by two to four times, in the west and north of the UK, but close to average over much of central and southern England.

By contrast, in winter 2013-14, much of Scotland and south-east England received rainfall amounts that were double the long-term average, with the most significant flooding in the Somerset Levels and Thames valley.
View larger version of this chart
The journal 'Hydrology and Earth System Sciences' published a paper by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and co-authors which concluded that the heavy rainfall which fell on northern England and Scotland during Storm Desmond between 4 and 6 December 2015 had been made 40 per cent more likely by climate change.

This record rainfall is part of a pattern, with six of the seven wettest years on record in the UK all having occurred from 2000 onwards. Over the same period, the UK has experienced its eight warmest years. It is clear that climate change is making the UK warmer and wetter.

The Met Office has warned: "There is evidence to suggest that the character of UK rainfall has changed, with days of very heavy rain becoming more frequent. What in the 1960s and 1970s might have been a 1 in 125 day event is now more likely a 1 in 85 day event."

A study by Dr Mari Jones and co-authors in 2012 concluded that spring and autumn extreme rainfall events have increased in the UK, and longer duration rainfall events in summer and winter have increased in intensity.

Managing UK flood risks

There are three main sources of flood risk in the UK: coastal, river and surface water. Climate change tends to increase the risk of coastal flooding due to sea level rise, and to increase the risk of river and surface water flooding through heavier and more frequent rainfall events. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment estimated that about 6 million residential and non-residential properties in the UK are exposed to some level of risk of coastal, river or surface water flooding.

It has been suggested that the risk could be limited by preventing any further development on floodplains. However, this is not feasible as coastal and river floodplains cover large parts of the UK, and many of its cities and towns, including London, are built on floodplains.

However, flood risks can be managed in a number of other ways, for instance by restricting development in the areas of highest flood risk, by building and maintaining flood defences, by improving drainage, and by designing buildings to be 'flood-resistant' (ie buildings that suffer minimum damage when they are flooded).

Many businesses and households also manage the risk of losses due to flooding through insurance. The UK is different from most other countries because flood insurance is widely available. There has been a tradition for the premiums for flood insurance for households in the highest risk areas to be implicitly subsidised by other policy-holders. In 2016, a new scheme, Flood Re, will be introduced to explicitly provide these subsidies for homes built before 2009, with the aim of phasing them out within 20 to 25 years. When the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs initially proposed the scheme, it did not take into account the impact of climate change on flood risk.

In its annual progress report to Parliament in June 2015, the Committee on Climate Change pointed out that the UK Government's investments in flood defences were insufficient to take account of the impacts of climate change and other factors. It stated: "Over the last four years there has been underinvestment in flood and coastal risk management in England, totalling more than £200 million. Due to this underinvestment, expected annual flood damage will be higher now than it was in 2010."

The Committee recommended that the Government should develop a strategy to address the increasing number of homes in areas of high flood risk, with the 'Flood Re' subsidised flood insurance scheme playing a central role". However, in its response in October 2015, the Government rejected this advice on the grounds that it "would not be appropriate at this time".

Following the flooding caused by Storm Desmond, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Elizabeth Truss, announced the creation of a National Flood Resilience Review to "better protect the country from future flooding and increasingly extreme weather events". The results of the review are due to be published in summer 2016.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Economic impacts of flooding in the UK - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
New figures released by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) suggest that the economic losses from flood and storm damage over the last couple of months will exceed those from two years ago during the wettest winter on record. The ABI estimates that its members will pay out about £1.3 billion for claims following a series of storms and heavy rainfall.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The entire English stretch of the River Severn has been covered by flood warnings as water levels continue to rise following recent downpours.

The Environment Agency said it was "very unusual" for warnings to cover such a long stretch of the river.

The warnings affect Shropshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire.

A flood gate on a main commuter route in Worcester, Hylton Road, was closed for the first time since 2014, meaning the street has been shut.

Road closures were in place in the region following nearly a month's worth of rain in little over 24 hours.

The Herefordshire tributary River Wye, which was at its highest level since 1998, has started to recede after rising 5m above its usual level on Sunday, leading to evacuations and flooded homes.

River levels peaked in parts of Shropshire, including Ironbridge and Buildwas, overnight but are expected to stay high for a few days.

Other areas including Worcester are projected to peak on Tuesday night. River levels are expected to remain high in the city and downstream for the next two to three days.

The Environment Agency said more than 1,000 homes and businesses had been protected by the Severn flood barriers.

Donna Byard runs an antique shop in Ironbridge and had to turn away customers on Monday due to the rising waters.

"We've not had it this high for many years," she said, adding it was the first time she had been forced to use her flood barrier which she noticed "breaching underneath slightly".

In a caravan park in Bridgnorth, Maureen Burnell told the BBC her home was suddenly surrounded by water.

She said there had been no sign of flooding at about 21:00 GMT on Monday but a few hours later "and suddenly this water is rushing like mad past our window".

The Environment Agency's Chris Bainger said holidaymakers enjoying their half-term break were a particular concern as they were unlikely to have a flood plan.

"That's caught some people out," he said, adding that people letting holiday accommodation should consider leaving tourists information for what to do.
Follow BBC West Midlands on Facebook, on Twitter, and sign up for local news updates direct to your phone.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The entire English stretch of the River Severn has been covered by flood warnings as water levels continue to rise following recent downpours. The Environment Agency said it was "very unusual" for warnings to cover such a long stretch of the river. The warnings affect Shropshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
If flooding is forecast, three types of warning are issued: flood alerts, flood warnings and severe flood warnings.

The information on the flood warnings page is updated every 15 minutes. Remember to refresh your browser to ensure that you are viewing the latest warnings.

Warning services for areas at risk of flooding from rivers or the sea are provided by the Environment Agency (EA) for England, Natural Resources Wales (NRW) for Wales and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA). In Northern Ireland the Met Office works closely with partners to raise awareness of weather events which may result in flooding impacts on people and property.

Flood Warning Widget

The homepage Flood warning widget shows the warnings and alerts in force for your chosen location. You can change your location via the "Find a forecast" box in the top left corner of the homepage.
To view the detailed warnings click through the warnings and alerts triangles or the link below.

Summary Tab

You can view flood warnings for:

1. Click on the radio buttons above the map to select your region.

If you have all areas selected on the map, the table to the right will show the number of warnings in force for each area.

2. The different columns in the table show the types of flood warnings in place:

Severe Flood Warnings

Flood Warnings

Flood Alerts

Warnings no longer in force

Click on the relevant row in the table to view a summary of warnings in force for that country.
Then click on your region to view the detail of the warnings in force.

3. Alternatively, you can select a region on the map to view the warnings in force for that area.

Detail Tab

The detailed view shows a list of each of the Flood Warnings and Alerts in force for your selected region as well as the Warnings no longer in force for the area.

1. To view more detailed information for each Warning or Alert in force click on the "show details" link.

2. To select a different region or country, use the "Region" drop down list at the top of the page.

3. You can also view the information by warning type by using the "Flood warnings type" drop down list.

4. Finally you can search within the warnings text by using the "Search" box.

5. To return to the warnings and alerts summary, click on the "Summary" tab or click on the "Back to the flood warnings summary" link under the Floodline contact information.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
If flooding is forecast, three types of warning are issued: flood alerts, flood warnings and severe flood warnings. The information on the flood warnings page is updated every 15 minutes. Remember to refresh your browser to ensure that you are viewing the latest warnings.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
This type of hydrograph is known as a storm or flood hydrograph and it is generally drawn with two vertical axes. One is used to plot a line graph showing the discharge of a river in cumecs (cubic metres per second) at a given point over a period of time.

The second is used to plot a bar graph of the rainfall event which precedes the changes in discharge.

The scale on the horizontal axis is usually in hours/days and this allows both the rain event to be recorded and the subsequent changes in river discharge to be plotted.

The shape of the hydrograph varies according to a number of controlling factors in the drainage basin but it will generally include the following features.

The baseflow of the river represents the normal day to day discharge of the river and is the consequence of groundwater seeping into the river channel. The rising limb of the hydrograph represents the rapid increase in resulting from rainfall causing surface runoff and then later throughflow. Peak discharge occurs when the river reaches its highest level. The time difference between the peak of the rain event and the peak discharge is known as the lag time or basin lag. The falling limb (or recession limb as it is sometimes known) is when discharge decreases and the river's level falls. It has a gentler gradient than the rising limb as most overland flow has now been discharged and it is mainly throughflow which is making up the river water.

A number of factors (known as drainage basin controls) influence the way in which a river responds to precipitation and have an effect on the shape of the hydrograph.

The size, shape and relief of the basin are important controls. Water takes longer to reach the trunk stream in a large, round basin than in does in a small, narrow one.

Where gradients are steep, water runs off faster, reaches the river more quickly and causes a steep rising limb. Prolonged heavy rain causes more overland flow than light drizzly rain.

Areas of permeable rocks and soil allow more infiltration and so less surface run off.

The way in which the land is used will also have an influence on the hydrograph - vegetation intercepts precipitation and allows evaporation to take place directly into the atmosphere so reducing the amount of water available for overland flow while the large number of impermeable surfaces in urban areas encourages run off into gutters and drains carrying water quickly to the nearest river.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
This type of hydrograph is known as a storm or flood hydrograph and it is generally drawn with two vertical axes. One is used to plot a line graph showing the discharge of a river in cumecs (cubic metres per second) at a given point over a period of time.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Climate change is never far from the headlines - and for some - it is a lot closer to home.

In Conwy county, there is mounting concern for coastal defences in the town of Old Colwyn - with warnings the local authority can no longer afford spending up to £40,000 a year just patching up the Victorian promenade.

Worst-case scenarios suggest the prom could be shut permanently, as higher tides spill over sea walls.

In the longer term, the main rail line from Chester to Holyhead would be under threat - so would the A55 trunk road.

So, is the problem being tackled and what are the options?

What has happened?

About 60% of the Welsh population lives on or near the coast.

According to the Wales Audit Office, 208,000 properties are at risk of flooding from rivers or the sea.

In the stretch of coast running from the Great Orme in Llandudno to the Mersey estuary, 34,600 properties are at risk.

It has prompted action - especially in Conwy county.

Over the past decade, a massive coastal flood protection and regeneration scheme has been under way.

The Porth Eirias project has seen the promenade raised opposite Eirias Park in Colwyn Bay, new waterfront buildings and 500,000 sq m of sand imported to cover 0.6 miles (1km) of beach.

Work has also been carried out to improve sea walls and the promenade at Rhos-on-Sea.

So far, £28.6m has been spent on those phases of the scheme.

A further £14m has been earmarked for work in 2020, when another 500,000 sq m of sand will be dumped on beaches between Rhos and Marine Drive.

What about Old Colwyn?

Some residents have asked whether it has been a case of burying heads in the sand and whether Old Colwyn has been ignored in favour of neighbouring Colwyn Bay.

On Tuesday, Conwy council sat down to discuss exactly this issue.

According to experts hired to examine the defences, unless action is taken, the Old Colwyn promenade will become damaged beyond repair.

It warns that without substantial work, the promenade will shut to traffic within eight years.

Within 30 or 40 years:

The north Wales mainline railway will be eroded and the line will close

Properties along the front between the pier and Cayley Promenade will be lost

Between 50 and 60 years:

The loss of the A55

More properties lost on the sea front and buildings in the centre of Colwyn Bay

What can be done?

The council has put forward options for another phase of coastal defence work - this time directly addressing the Old Colwyn concerns.

Under the proposals, measures would look at preventing the sea coming over defences, mitigate shoreline erosion, and protect the rail line and roads.

However, it comes with a hefty price tag - an estimated £34m - the problem then becomes how to fund that work.

The previous Conwy coastal risk management programme covering Colwyn Bay received major support from the Welsh Government - 75% of the scheme was grant-funded.

But new proposals do not fall into the same category - as it is about protecting infrastructure - rather than homes and businesses.

It means as things stand, the Welsh Government will not be making the same grant cash available.

So who pays?

Responsibility would need to be split.
The latest assessment presented to Conwy council suggests:

Council: £8m-10m as lead flood and coastal protection authority

Welsh Water: £4m-5m for sewerage works to be re-routed

Sustrans: £1m-2m to re-route the national cycle path

Network Rail: £20m-30m to protect the mainline railway tracks

If Network Rail took the decision not to invest then ultimately, it would mean the A55 would be affected and the Welsh Government could face the bill for the road.

On balance, analysts argue rail bosses would want to protect their investments - the alternative would be the end of the line - quite literally - for direct rail services to a large swathe of north Wales.

Why not simply walk away?

In some parts of Wales, the coastal management solution to flood risks has been just that.

The Gwynedd seaside village of Fairbourne faces exactly that fate as it is being "decommissioned".

From about 2050, the area's sea defences will no longer be maintained and the sea will be allowed to reclaim the village - which is home to about 1,000 people.

The decision is based on what are known as shoreline management plans - every part of the Welsh coastline has one, developed over years by government, local authorities and the communities themselves.

In the plan for Fairbourne, the decision has been "managed retreat".

But for Old Colwyn, it is a different story.

The town, with 8,000 residents, and the strategic importance of road and rail links, means the message is "hold the line" - defences will be protected, as far as budgets allow.

What next?

As the body responsible for co-ordinating the flood management response, Conwy council is pushing for a summit of all the main partners involved at Old Colwyn.

On Tuesday, a scrutiny committee backed a call for a meeting to bring together the council with Network Rail, Welsh Water, Sustrans and Welsh Government representatives.

The decision will be considered by the council's cabinet at a meeting on 22 October.

The focus is simple: "Securing capital funding to improve coastal defences at Old Colwyn".

This piece has been inspired by questions from BBC Wales News readers.

Is there anything you've always wanted to know?

Use this form to send us your questions:

We may get in touch if we decide to follow up on your suggestion.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Climate change is never far from the headlines - and for some - it is a lot closer to home. In Conwy county, there is mounting concern for coastal defences in the town of Old Colwyn - with warnings the local authority can no longer afford spending up to £40,000 a year just patching up the Victorian promenade.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
| April 2. 2014. 13:00

From posing a threat to natural ecosystems to damaging business, property and livelihoods, a report out this week from the UN's official climate body reviews the wide-ranging damages extreme flooding can cause.

With the UK currently dealing with the impact of widespread flooding, we look at what the report has to say about how serious a risk it could be in the future as the climate changes further.
Getting wetter
Last September, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a bumper assessment of how and why the climate is changing, including projections for how everything from rainfall to arctic sea ice is likely to change in the coming decades.

Scientists expect a warming world to lead to more extreme rainfall. The image below shows the UK receiving about 10 per cent more rainfall on average per year by 2100 (right) compared to 1986-2005 (left).
The UK is set to see about a 10 per cent rise in annual average rainfall by 2100 (right) compared to the period 1985-2005 (left). Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report Sumary for Policymakers (p20).
It's not just the total amount of rainfall that scientists expect to increase. The IPCC report also predicts Europe and the UK is "very likely" to see more heavy rainfall events by the end of the century. A lot of rain falling in a short space of time raises flood risk, and there's already evidence heavy rainfall events are getting more frequent in the UK due to climate change, as a report released last week from the Met Office explains.

Heavier rainfall plus sea level rise - which make storm surges bigger and more likely to breach coastal defences - has scientists warning of a greater flood risk in the UK as the climate warms. As professor Richard Allan from Reading University told us recently:

"[W]henever we have heavy (and prolonged) rainfall events in the future, we can expect them to be more intense - along with the risk of flooding."
Rising sea level due to climate change makes storm surges bigger and more likely to breach coastal defences. A new report
The IPCC has just released the second part of its comprehensive overview of climate change science. It looks at the impacts of climate change across the globe, from farming to flooding.

With floods and climate change back on the news agenda, we've reviewed what the report has to say about future flooding and its impacts.
How much flooding will the UK get?
Floods are the most frequently-occurring type of natural disaster, the report says. And as flood risk in the UK rises, so does the risk to society.

According to one study the new report cites, warming of 3.5 to 4.8 degrees Celsius by the 2080s - which is what the IPCC expects if emissions stay high - would expose an additional 250,000 to 400,000 people in Europe to river flooding, and potentially up to 5.5 million per year to coastal flooding. The UK is likely to be one of the worst affected locations, the report suggests.
How much will it cost?
Research cited in the new IPCC report suggests flooding costs are likely to escalate with the rising risk of flooding. The report says:

"Climate change could increase the annual cost of flooding in the UK almost 15-fold by the 2080s under high emission scenarios."

This increase is primarily due to population growth and changes in the value of buildings and infrastructure - but climate change is also partly responsible, the report points out. The UK government's Foresight Programme, which the IPCC report also cites, estimated global warming of three to four degrees above pre-industrial levels could increase flood damage costs from 0.1 to 0.4 per cent of GDP.

Another study projects the average amount insurers pay out annually for flood damage in the UK to go up eight per cent for two degrees warming and 14 per cent for four degrees, which the IPCC thinks looks likely by around 2060 and the end of the century, respectively, if emissions stay high.

PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates the price tag of the current flooding, in terms of lost income, repairing damage and extensive clean-up efforts, is already in the region of £600 million - and expected to rise as the bad weather continues into late February. PWC said:

"Our expectations are that the insurance industry will have up to £500m of costs from the January and December weather and the economic damage will be £630m."

Richard Holt of Capital Economics told the Independent the area at risk represented around 13 per cent of the UK's gross domestic product, and the loss of output in those areas would reduce GDP by over 1 per cent within a month, totalling £13.8bn. This is economists' best estimate, but experts warn it's hard to know the full extent while a lot of the country still remains flooded.

Economist Richard Holt of Capital Economics talking to CNBC about the economic costs of the recent sever floods in the UK. Source: CNBC
Overflowing sewers
The new IPCC report identifies climate change as a key factor affecting Britain's present and future sewer systems. A recent study cited in the report looked at cities across Europe, the US, Canada, Asia and Australia, and estimates a typical increase in rainfall intensity of 10 to 60 per cent has in some cases increase in the frequency of sewer flooding by up to 400 per cent.

Another study estimates the volume of sewage released to the environment by flooding-induced sewage overflow spills looks set to increase by 40 per cent by 2080.

In this most recent case of flooding, urban drains have been struggling to cope with the volume of water flowing into them.
Transport disruption
The new report notes persistent, heavy rainfall and flooding can disrupt important transport links, something we're seeing a lot of in the UK at the moment.
Submerged tracks after weeks of heavy rain are disruption to rail travel.
As well as the obvious direct impacts of flooding on rail networks, the report explains how possible knock-on effects are more difficult to assess, and often overlooked. The report says:

"Studies have often examined the direct impacts of flooding on transport infrastructure, but the indirect costs of delays, detours, and trip cancellation may also be substantial."

And while it's the trains that seem to be most affected in the UK at the moment, should future flooding affect the capital city the tube network could face major disruption too. The report notes:

"Many cities â?¦ depend on underground electric rail systems which require protection from the considerable risk from flooding - such as New York and London. Adapting all these systems to the impacts of climate change (including hot days, storms and sea-level rise) poses many challenges)."
Building on floodplains
While scientists are confident heavier rainfall runs a greater risk of flooding, the new IPCC report highlights how the choices we make about land use can increase the flood risk too. Building on floodplains is a big problem, for example. It notes:

"Globally, the frequency of river flood events has been increasing, as well as economic losses, due to the expansion of population and property in flood plains."

The government's climate change advisor, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), found in 2012 that England's floodplains have seen more property development than other areas over the past 10 years - and one in five of those properties is at risk of flooding. Between 2001 and 2011, 200,000 homes were built in floodplains - and since the government came in, changes to planning regulations have made building in vulnerable areas easier.
Building on floodplains increases flood risk, the Committee on Climate Change warns.
Why build on floodplains? Opportunities for development are just too tempting a prospect for local governments, the IPCC report suggests:

"In most nations, urban governments find it difficult to prevent new developments on sites at risk of flooding, especially in locations attractive for housing or commerce, even when there are laws and regulations in place to prevent this â?¦ There can also be vested interests and trade-offs where near-term development conflicts with longer-term adaptation and resilience goals"
Low natural drainage
Many people have raised the question in light of the recent flooding that paving over soil could be exacerbating the problem, because rainwater is falling on concrete rather than being soaked up by the ground.

The CCC recently told the BBC building practices such as paving over gardens, loss of urban green space and building on the floodplain mean the UK is increasingly vulnerable to floods.
Paving over gardens reduces the ground's ability to drain rainwater naturally, increasing flood risk.
Preserving or developing natural drainage - which involves taking advantage of trees, plants and soil to manage where water flows and gets absorbed - can help prevent floods. The IPCC report highlights why soil is so important for keeping flood waters at bay, especially in urban areas. It says:

"Maintaining soil water retention capacity â?¦ contributes to reduce risks of flooding as soil organic matter absorbs up to twenty times its weight in water"
What needs to happen now?
Adaptation measures to build resilience to extreme rainfall and flooding can make a difference, the IPCC report notes - by bolstering coastal defences, for example. But there's a limit to how far adaptation can go. It says:

"[W]hile adapting buildings in coastal communities and upgrading coastal defences can significantly reduce adverse impacts of sea level rise and storm surges, they cannot eliminate these risks, especially as sea levels will continue to rise over time. Managed retreat is likely to become a necessary response."

Clearly, emissions need to come down to limit the extent of future risk. In the meantime, it's important to ensure useful insurance schemes exist to cover those at risk. Swenja Surminski, a senior research fellow at the LSE's Grantham Research Institute and its Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, previously told Carbon Brief:

"[Insurance should] trigger behaviour change, especially in the government. It should lead to fewer houses being built on the floodplain, not business as usual, for example."

We've written more about criticisms of the government's flood protection insurance scheme here.

Informed policy decisions to keep risks at an acceptable level should mean taking heed of the scientific evidence current and future risks - and the new report lays them out fairly clearly. Current events demonstrate the risks of not being prepared for these events when they strike.

Note: This article was originally posted in February 2014. It has since been updated.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
How much flooding is in the UK''s future? A look at the IPCC report | Carbon Brief

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
April 2. 2014. 13:00 From posing a threat to natural ecosystems to damaging business, property and livelihoods, a report out this week from the UN's official climate body reviews the wide-ranging damages extreme flooding can cause.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Coastal construction: how Britain's shoreline changed in 50 years

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Built-up areas around the UK coast have increased by more than 40%, but conservationists have saved the 'most pristine' areas, Patrick Barkham reports

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Scotland's geology

Scotland's spectacular scenery and the distinctive character of our land and geography derives from a long geological story stretching back three thousand million years. This geology has played a crucial role in great leaps forward in understanding how the Earth works, dating back to the 18 th century and the revolutionary ideas of James Hutton.

Scotland's geology is the result of a series of major tectonic events over time. The Earth's continents are forever moving, splitting apart to make new ocean basins and colliding to form mountain ranges. Scotland has been caught up again and again in these processes of plate tectonics, resulting in a wide variety of rock types of different ages. This geological diversity is reflected in Scotland's scenery, in the way that the rocks have been sculpted over millions of years to give the Highlands and Lowlands, the firths and the islands, the glens, lochs and serrated mountain ridges. The final touches were largely provided by the ice sheets and glaciers that covered Scotland during the Ice Age of the last 2.6 million years, while river coastal and slope processes continue to shape the landscape today.
In the beginning ...
The oldest rocks in Scotland are found in the Outer Hebrides and on the coast of the Northwest Highlands. The 'Lewisian Gneiss' is ancient, highly deformed metamorphic rock that takes its name from the island of Lewis. These rocks were formed deep in the Earth's crust, and they record an unimaginable history of tectonic change: volcanic events, mountain building, deep burial and slow erosion. This rock first reached the surface more than 1000 million years ago, and then was buried again as new sedimentary rock formed on top.

Find out more at The 51 Best Places to see Scotland's Geology: Scourie Bay and Laxford | Luskentyre, Harris | Isle of Iona
Caledonian Orogeny - a big crash
The most important event in Scotland's geological story is a complex continental collision associated with the closure of the Iapetus Ocean. This is called the 'Caledonian Orogeny' and involved the collision of the northern continent of Laurentia (including North America and the oldest rocks of Scotland), the smaller Avalonia continent (England, Wales, parts of Ireland and Atlantic Canada) and the continent of Baltica to form a huge mountain chain. Before the continents collided, erosion of existing landmasses dumped large amounts of sediment into the Iapetus Ocean and surrounding basins. These sedimentary rocks were crushed, contorted and metamorphosed in various phases as the ocean closed and the continents came together, forming the hard rock of most of the Scottish Highlands and Southern Uplands.

As the Caledonian Orogeny drew to a close 400 million years ago, melting of rock beneath the mountains created magma that rose upwards to form granite, and sometimes erupted in large volcanoes like Glen Coe. One of the final acts of this great continental collision was the 'Moine Thrust', where a large block of metamorphic rock was moved westwards, so that it ended up on top of the relatively undisturbed sedimentary rocks of the Northwest Highlands.

Find out more at The 51 Best Places to see Scotland's Geology:
Moine metamorphic rocks (north of the Great Glen) at Loch Monar | Corrieshalloch Gorge
Dalradian metamorphic rocks (south of the Great Glen) at Luing and the Atlantic Islands | Schiehallion | Islay
Ocean-floor rocks of the Southern Uplands at Loch Skeen and the Grey Mare's Tail | Back Bay, Monreith
Granite and volcanic rocks at Eshaness Coast, Shetland | Glen Coe | Cairngorms
Evidence of collision and fault movement at Unst, Shetland | Knockan Crag | Balmaha, Loch Lomond
After the mountain building - erosion and rifting
Scotland's geological story over the last 400 million years has been quieter and simpler. Most of Scotland remained above the level of the sea, an eroding continent that slowly drifted northwards across the Equator. The Caledonian mountain range eroded quickly and episodes of continental stretching created sinking, low-lying areas where new sedimentary rock could form. This includes the Old Red Sandstone and the coal fields of central Scotland, and later the oil- and gas-bearing rocks of the North Sea. In the Central Belt, volcanic activity created upland areas including the Campsies and Arthur's Seat.

Find out more at The 51 Best Places to see Scotland's Geology:
Devonian and Carboniferous sedimentary rocks at North-West Hoy, Orkney | The Black Isle | Laich Sandstones, Elgin | Fossil Grove, Glasgow
Volcanic rocks at East Neuk of Fife | Holyrood Park, Edinburgh | Eildon Hills
The final stretch - opening of the North Atlantic
Scotland's final episode of rock creation was a dramatic period of volcanic activity centred on the west coast. Slow subsidence prior to the volcanic activity allowed sediment to accumulate, including Jurassic sedimentary rocks containing dinosaur fossils. The volcanic activity started after the dinosaur extinction, and involved the creation of a thick pile of lava flows and large central volcanoes.

Find out more at The 51 Best Places to see Scotland's Geology: Trotternish, Skye | Cuillin Hills, Skye | Isle of Eigg | Isle of Staffa
The story continues ...
In the last 50 million years Scotland has been in a stable tectonic situation at the edge of the Atlantic, but the geological story doesn't stop there. Over this long period, weathering and erosion have picked out the contrasts between different rock types to create today's landscape. During the Quaternary Ice Age (the last 2.6 million years), the entire country has been covered by an ice sheet many times, and the moving glaciers and their meltwater have helped to shape Scotland as we see it today. Although the scale and pace of change have slowed since the last glaciers melted 11,500 years ago, the landscape continues to be modified today by river, coastal and slope processes. And as James Hutton said, we can foresee "a different state that must follow in time, from the continued operation of that which actually is in nature".

Find out more at The 51 Best Places to see Scotland's Geology: St Ninian's Tombolo, Shetland | Luskentyre, Harris | Parallel Roads of Glen Roy | Corrie Fee, Glen Clova | Flanders Moss NNR | Loch Skeen and the Grey Mare's Tail

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Scotland's spectacular scenery and the distinctive character of our land and geography derives from a long geological story stretching back three thousand million years. This geology has played a crucial role in great leaps forward in understanding how the Earth works, dating back to the 18 th century and the revolutionary ideas of James Hutton.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
After studying What and Where Glaciers are, I am now going to look at how Glaciers shape and affect the landscape around them, this process is know as 'Glaciation'. With the weight of Glaciers and the gradual movement means that Glaciers can drastically change the land and cause new and unique landforms.
The Three processes by which glaciation affects the landscape is erosion, transportation and deposition.

WEATHERING:- The most common form of erosion that Glacier's cause on the landscape if Freeze-thaw weathering. This is the action of glacial water getting into cracks,holes and joints within the rock, when it freezes it causes the rock to expand and widen. When the temperature heats up, it causes the water the melt and the rock contracts. Eventually this process cause pieces of rock to break off.

PLUCKING:- Plucking occurs when loosened fragments of stones and rocks, become frozen to the ice. When the Glacier moves, the stones are literally plucked from the ground, it leaves behind a jagged landscape.

ABRASION:- At school I always remembered this as the sand paper effect and in term of Glaciers its no different. Stones and rocks are embedded into the Glacier and as the Glacier moves the rocks rubbed against the bedrock and wears it down. It produces polished bedrock surfaces, that has scratches on.

There is more erosion processes that occur within Glaciation, however I have highlighted the most predominant processes.

On the BBC bitesize revision pages, I found this clip that I thought simply explained what a Glacier is but erosion processes as well. Please click on link below to watch.

Glaciers are capable of moving large quantities of rock fragments﻿ and soil debris across huge distances. The distances all depends on material and the speed of movement of the Glacier. It is also important to put out here that Glaciers do not just move deposits from erosion, it may come from external sources such as:-

Rockfalls from weathering off other slopes

Wind-blown materials, such as ash and dust.

The intense erosive actions produces large amount of sediment that can be transported ﻿by the movement of the Glacier. The deposition of sediment can be laid down miles away from their origins.

The collective name for all the sediments and debris deposited under all glacial conditions is Glacial Drift.

However Geographers have classified glacial sediment according to its mode of deposition:-

Fluvio-glacial - Sediments that were deposited by melting ice or by glacial streams, meltwater is abundant in warm based Glaciers.

Glacier Till - This is when debris is deposited directly by the Glacial, dropped 'in situ' by retreating ice.

The below diagram shows the classifications of sediments in deposition.

﻿ ﻿

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
After studying What and Where Glaciers are, I am now going to look at how Glaciers shape and affect the landscape around them, this process is know as 'Glaciation'. With the weight of Glaciers and the gradual movement means that Glaciers can drastically change the land and cause new and unique landforms. The Three processes by which glaciation affects the landscape is erosion, transportation and deposition.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Britain's volcanic fires may be no more, but remnants of an enduring eruptive past can be found throughout the country, writes Professor Iain Stewart.
"So there I lie on the plateau, under me the central core of fire from which was thrust this grumbling grinding mass of plutonic rock, over me blue air, and between me the fire of the rock and the fire of the sun, scree, soil and water, moss, grass, flower and tree, insect, bird and beast, wind, rain and snow - the total mountain."

Those words - from Nan Shepherd's recently resurrected gem The Living Mountain (Canongate) - perfectly evoke the intimate relationship between the flora and fauna of upland Britain and its ancient volcanic past.

Find out more

Professor Iain Stewart and Kate Humble present Volcano Live - starting on BBC Two on Monday 9 July at 20:00 BST

Watch volcanoes erupting

Discover how volcanoes are created

Have a question for Iain Stewart or Volcano Live's experts? Email volcanolive@bbc.co.uk

In this case, the reverence is for the rounded granite bulk of the Cairngorm mountains in north-east Scotland, but across Britain and Ireland rocks born molten many millions of years ago still fashion the familiar natural world around us.

The Cairngorms themselves are the roots of mountains that formed about 420 million years ago when a great seaway separating the rocks of Scotland and Northern Ireland from those of England and Wales crumpled shut.

During the final death throes of that ancient Iapetus Ocean, a chain of explosive volcanic islands had lined the leading edge of the approaching southern landmass of Avalonia - today the jagged highlands of Snowdonia and the Lake District are the ice-sculpted remains of that once fiery frontier.

When Avalonia finally collided with the Celtic fringes of the northern landmass (Laurentia), a mountain range of Himalayan stature was thrown up.

Even amid the lowlands of middle England, volcanic fires once burned

Molten rock (magma) that had readily risen to fuel surface volcanoes now congealed in the depths of the over thickened crust, investing the lofty peaks with granite hearts.

Erosion has now exhumed these granite cores, exposing them in the alpine plateaus of the Cairngorms, and further west, in the boggy bleakness of Rannoch Moor.

So in Britain you do not walk on volcanoes, you walk within them. Take our highest mountain - Ben Nevis. Few of those that take the sturdy hike to its summit probably appreciate that they are journeying through the innards of a disembowelled volcano.

Moreover, it is one that met with a truly cataclysmic end. The clue is found near the summit, where light coloured granite that had cooled in subterranean chambers several kilometres down now lies right up against dark basaltic lavas that once spewed out at the surface. Ordinarily never the twain shall meet.

The fact that today they are found side by side implies that the huge ancient volcano collapsed in on itself. The event, which occurred some 350 million years ago, was of such epic violence that it is almost impossible to imagine today.

To approach anything close you have to leave the bens and glens behind and transport your imagination thousands of miles eastward to the infamous blast in 1883 that ripped the heart out of Krakatoa volcano, west of Java.

Or back several millennia to the even larger Bronze Age eruption of Thera volcano (modern Santorini in Greece) which wiped the Minoan culture off the face of their Aegean heartland.

Over hundreds of millions of years, such extraordinary volcanic actions have laid the foundation for our natural landscape. The signs are all around, if you know what to look for.

In Edinburgh, clamber up to the top of Arthur's Seat - its cliffs a sheet of solidified magma - and you can see isolated rocky pinnacles scattered along the Forth estuary, each the eroded neck of a former volcano.

Or venture west to the Campsie Fells, where the same magma-fuelled maelstrom 300 or so million years ago built a magnificent staircase of lava flows that today rise above Glasgow.

Even amid the lowlands of middle England, volcanic fires once burned - the gentle summits above Church Stretton in the Welsh borderland, for instance, are the outpourings of 600 million year old lavas.

Of course today, those long enduring volcanic fires are extinguished. The last hurrah of the UK volcano was about 55 million years ago, when an extraordinary fiery outburst accompanied the wrenching open of the North Atlantic ocean.

All along what is now the western shores of Scotland, huge volcanic centres erupted colossal quantities of magma. The islands of Arran, Mull and Skye are among the remains of a chain of volcanoes that draped much of northern Britain and Ireland in enormous amounts of lava and volcanic ash.

Deeper fracture lines radiating out from these centres injected Hebridean magma as far south as the North Sea coast of Yorkshire, travelling the 400km in something like five days!

But such volcanic violence was not to last. Over millions of years, the spreading of the Atlantic seaway shunted eastward Hebridean volcanoes away from the well of superheated rock that originally fed them, so that, today, that upwelling now feeds the craters and geysers of Iceland.

With the demise of our home-grown volcanoes, it is to the likes of Iceland and Italy that we must now travel to see our closest live volcanic action. Many UK scientists study active volcanoes in those areas, as well as further afield in the Caribbean islands or around the Pacific Ring of Fire.

But UK volcanologists do so armed with an intimate knowledge of our own volcanic heritage which, exposed by millions of years of erosion, reveals the deep "plumbing" of once active volcanoes.

That is important because volcanoes are far more than just spectacular firework displays. They are also geological windows into our planet - portals that allows geologists to delve deep into how the Earth works.
Professor Iain Stewart and Kate Humble present Volcano Live, from Kilauea on Hawaii, the world's most active volcano. Starting on BBC Two on Monday 9 July at 20:00 BST.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Britain's volcanic fires may be no more, but remnants of an enduring eruptive past can be found throughout the country, writes Professor Iain Stewart.

# data[].attributes.headline
Local and National Consequences of Deforestation...

# data[].attributes.subject
Local and National Consequences of Deforestation...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Disappearing Opportunities
July 22, 2012

LOSS OF LOCAL CLIMATE REGULATION

The local level is where deforestation has the most immediate effect. With forest loss, the local community loses the system that performed valuable but often under-appreciated services like ensuring the regular flow of clean water and protecting the community from flood and drought. The forest acts as a sort of sponge, soaking up rainfall brought by tropical storms while anchoring soils and releasing water at regular intervals. This regulating feature of tropical rainforests can help moderate destructive flood and drought cycles that can occur when forests are cleared.
When forest cover is lost, runoff rapidly flows into streams, elevating river levels and subjecting downstream villages, cities, and agricultural fields to flooding, especially during the rainy season. During the dry season, such areas downstream of deforestation can be prone to months-long droughts which interrupt river navigation, wreak havoc on crops, and disrupt industrial operations.

Situated on steep slopes, montane and watershed forests are especially important in ensuring water flow and inhibiting erosion, yet during the 1980s, montane forests suffered the highest deforestation rate of tropical forests. ( That trend changed in the late 1990s and 2000s, when upland forests recovered, while lowland areas bore the brunt of deforestation, largely due to agricultural expansion).

Additionally, the forest adds to local humidity through transpiration (the process by which plants release water through their leaves), and thus adds to local rainfall. For example, 50-80 percent of the moisture in the central and western Amazon remains in the ecosystem water cycle. In the water cycle, moisture is transpired and evaporated into the atmosphere, forming rain clouds before being precipitated as rain back onto the forest. When the forests are cut down, less moisture is evapotranspired into the atmosphere resulting in the formation of fewer rain clouds. Subsequently there is a decline in rainfall, subjecting the area to drought. If rains stop falling, within a few years the area can become arid with the strong tropical sun baking down on the scrub-land. Today Madagascar is largely a red, treeless desert from generations of forest clearing with fire. River flows decline and smaller amounts of quality water reach cities and agricultural lands. The declining rainfall in interior West African countries has in part been attributed to excessive clearing of the coastal rainforests. Similarly, new research in Australia suggests that if it were not for human influences-specifically widespread agricultural fires-the dry outback might be a wetter, more hospitable place than it is today. The effect of vegetation change from forests that favor rainfall to grassland and bush can impact precipitation patterns. Colombia, once second in the world with freshwater reserves, has fallen to 24th due to its extensive deforestation over the past 30 years. Excessive deforestation around the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur, combined with the dry conditions created by el Niño, triggered strict water rationing in 1998, and for the first time the city had to import water.

There is serious concern that widespread deforestation could lead to a significant decline in rainfall and trigger a positive-feedback process of increasing desiccation for neighboring forest cover; reducing its moisture stocks and its vegetation would then further the desiccation effect for the region. Eventually the effect could extend outside the region, affecting important agricultural zones and other watersheds. At the 1998 global climate treaty conference in Buenos Aires, Britain, citing a disturbing study at the Institute of Ecology in Edinburgh, suggested the Amazon rainforest could be lost in 50 years due to shifts in rainfall patterns induced by global warming and land conversion.

The newly desiccated forest becomes prone to devastating fires. Such fires materialized in 1997 and 1998 in conjunction with the dry conditions created by el Niño. Millions of acres burned as fires swept through Indonesia, Brazil, Colombia, Central America, Florida, and other places. The Woods Hole Research Center warned that more than 400,000 square kilometers of Brazilian Amazon were highly vulnerable to fire in 1998. That extent grew in 2005 and 2010 when the Amazon was hit by even worse droughts.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Review questions:

How do rainforests help moderate flood and drought cycles?

Other versions of this page
spanish | french | portuguese |chinese | japanese
N. Myers in "Deforestation Rates in Tropical Forests and Their Climactic Implications," Friends of the Earth, London, 1989 estimates that the tropical deforestation rate increased by 90% during the 1980s.

The "Estimated Annual Rates of Deforestation" chart is derived from Orr, D.W., Earth in Mind: On Education, Environment, and the Human Prospect, Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1994; State of the World's Forests 1997 (SOFO) published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); and N. Myers in "Deforestation Rates in Tropical Forests and Their Climactic Implications," Friends of the Earth, London, 1989.

The U.N. FAO (State of the World's Forest 1997 (SOFO)) provides statistics revealing the high deforestation rates of tropical montane forest during then 1980s.

According to Salati, E. and Nobre, C.A ("Possible climatic impacts of tropical deforestation," in Tropical Forests and Climate, ed N. Myers., Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992) 50-80% of the moisture in the central and western Amazon is recycled.

Myers, N. in "The world's forests and their ecosystem services," in Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, ed G.C. Daily, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 1997 explains how moisture is transpired by plants and evaporated back into the atmosphere to form rain clouds.

A. Gioda reviews the importance of water throughout history in "A Short History of Water" Nature & Resources, Vol. 35, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1999.

Szollosi-Nagy, A., Najlis, P., and Bjorklund, G breadown the availability of global freshwater resources in "Assessing the world's freshwater resources," Nature & Resources, Vol. 34, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1998.

Albor, T. reported on severe flooding in the Philippines resulting from deforestation ("Illegal Logging blamed for Philippine Flood Toll," Christian Science Monitor 11/12/91).

Pearce attributes declining rainfall in interior West African countries to coastal forest loss (Pearce, F., "Lost Forests Leave West Africa Dry," The New Scientist 1-18-97.).

Vegetation change caused by ancient human agricultural fires may have impacted precipitation patterns in the Austalian outback according to Cowen, R. ("If You Don't Spare the Tree, You May Spoil More Than the Jungle," Christian Science Monitor. 1/13/98) and Johnson, B.J. et aL. ("65,000 years of vegetational change in central Australia and the Australian summer monsoon," Science Vol. 284, No 5417 (1150-1152), 14-May-1999).

In his article "Escaping Nature's Wrath" in the Chronicle Foreign Service (1998), P. Grunson discusses the role of environmental degradation on damage inflicted by Hurricane Mitch.

In his book, Ultimate Security: The Environmental Basis of Political Stability (Washington, D.C.: Island Press. 1996), Norman Myers discusses the importance of environmental stability in maintaining social and policial stability. He indicates that shrinking water supplies will have important political raminfications in the near future.

The decline of Colombia's freshwater resources is mentioned in Inter Press Service (IPS), "Environment-Colombia: Garbage, Guerrillas and Animal Smugglers" 1/7/98.

N. Myers brings up the concern that widespread deforestation could trigger a positive-feedback process of increasing dessication for neighboring forest cover in "The world's forests and their ecosystem services" in Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, ed G.C. Daily, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 1997.

At the 1998 global climate treaty conference in Buenos Aires, the Nautral Environment Research Coucil of the UK released a study forcasting the conversion of 2.8 million square kilometers of the Amazon rainforest to desert resulting from global climate change. This dire projection has been considered too extreme by many climate researchers since its release. Nevertheless the story was picked up by McCarthy, M. in "Amazon forest 'will be dead in 50 years'" The Independent. 11/11/98.

In its RisQue98 (Risco de Queimada, or "Risk of Burning" in Amazonia - 1998), the Woods Hole Research Center assessed the risk of forest fires and agricultural burning in Brazilian Amazonia for the second half of 1998 and found that more than 400,000 square kilometers were vulnerable.

© Mongabay 1995-2020

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Local and National Consequences of Deforestation

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Disappearing Opportunities July 22, 2012 The local level is where deforestation has the most immediate effect. With forest loss, the local community loses the system that performed valuable but often under-appreciated services like ensuring the regular flow of clean water and protecting the community from flood and drought.

# data[].attributes.headline
Land Cover Change - Looking at Tropical Rainforests...

# data[].attributes.subject
Land Cover Change - Looking at Tropical Rainforests...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Global Forest Change | Google Crisis Map

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Results from time-series analysis of Landsat images characterizing forest extent and change. / Trees are defined as vegetation taller than 5m in height and are expressed as a percentage per output grid cell as '2000 Percent Tree Cover'. 'Forest Cover Loss' is defined as a stand-replacement disturbance, or a change from a forest to non-forest state, during the period 2000-2017.

# data[].attributes.headline
CASE STUDY --> Impacts of deforestation in Malaysia

# data[].attributes.subject
CASE STUDY --> Impacts of deforestation in Malaysia

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Figure 1. An all too common sight throughout Malaysia. Hillsides cleared of hardwood timber - teak and other dipterocarps, in preparation for the planting of palm oil trees. [August 2016] ©Dr Kevin Cook
Summary

This article looks at the rates of current deforestation in Malaysia and to what extent this is having an environmental effect on the region. This is supplemented with relevant case study examples.

Malaysia has the distinction of having the highest rate of forest loss of the main countries that are reducing their forest cover. After decades of unsustainable logging, which depleted timber stocks and undermined the viability of traditional forestry management, Malaysia's forests are increasingly being converted for industrial oil palm plantations. The palm oil industry is a powerful political force in the country.

Declining forest cover is mainly due to urbanisation, agricultural fires, forest conversion for plantations and other forms of agriculture. Peninsular Malaysia's primary forests are mostly gone, though some forest still exists in Taman Negara, a national park. Most of Malaysia's remaining primary forest exists on the island of Borneo in the states of Sabah and Sarawak, but the majority of the forest area in Malaysian Borneo, especially the lowlands, has been selectively logged, resulting in reduced biodiversity.

The main environmental effects of deforestation and forest degradation include reduced biodiversity, the release of greenhouse gas emissions, forest fires, disrupted water cycles and increased soil erosion.

Curriculum Links - A level

Tropical rainforests

Global forest change

Ecosystems under stress

Environmental quality

Key Words

Questions to consider
Figure 2. Percentage forest loss for major countries 2000-2012. Source Butler (2013) Note that these are percentage loss figures. In terms of actual area lost, Malaysia comes ninth after countries such as Russia, Brazil, the US and Australia.

1. Log onto the University of Maryland's global forest change map and interrogate it. What does it tell you about the situation in Malaysia?

2. What are the main effects of deforestation in Malaysia?

3. How should the countries of south-east Asia overcome the problems caused by forest fires?

4. Carry out a desk exercise and try to find out what happens to most of the timber harvested from Malaysia's dipterocarp forests?

Background information
Rates of deforestation in Malaysia
As Figure 2 shows, Malaysia has the distinction of having the highest rate of forest loss of the main countries that are reducing their forest cover. This is a major finding of a new survey carried out by the University of Maryland in conjunction with Google.
Figure 3. Land use changes in Malaysia 2001 - 2010. Source Butler (2013)
After decades of unsustainable logging, which depleted timber stocks and undermined the viability of traditional forestry management, Malaysia's forests are increasingly being converted for industrial oil palm plantations. The palm oil industry is a powerful political force in the country.

The University of Maryland study found that some 2.3 million square kilometres (888,000 square miles) of forest was lost between 2000 and 2012. That area was partly offset by 800,000 sq. km of forests that regrew. Forest loss was highest in the tropics, which was the only region in the world where deforestation is increasing.

67.6% or about 22 million hectares is forested (UN FAO). This is an increase of around 13 million hectares since 2005, although most of the new 'forest' is palm oil plantation. Of this 18.7% (3,820,000) is classified as primary forest, the most biodiverse and carbon-dense form of forest. In addition, Malaysia had 1,807,000 ha of planted forest. Forest cover has fallen dramatically since the 1970s. The rate is accelerating faster than that of any other tropical country in the world. The FAO says that only 11.6 percent of the forests that cover Malaysia are considered pristine. Between 1990 and 2010, Malaysia lost an average of 96,000 ha or 0.43% per year. In total, between 1990 and 2010, Malaysia lost 8.6% of its forest cover, or around 1,920,000 ha.

Figure 3 summarises the major land use changes in Malaysia. Land use change prior to the establishment of new oil palm plantations is shown on the left with the total annual increase in oil palm plantations at the bottom of each pie chart on the left. What happened to the land following forest conversion is shown in the middle with the annual rate of deforestation in the lower left corner. The graph on the right shows the net land use change over each five-year period.
The environmental effects of deforestation and forest degradation
Several points can be drawn from these data. The amount of upland forest lost is considerable. There has been a decline in the rate of forest loss over the two time periods. Most of the forest has been converted into palm oil plantations.
Background information is provided by Study Tour participant Joanne Meredith.
Figure 3 suggests that the only two categories to show gains in land use have been oil palm and bare soil. All other land use types show a decline with upland forest showing the greatest losses. It should be noted that converting upland dipterocarp forest into palm oil plantations does not trap as much carbon for many years and is therefore adding to global climate change.

Declining forest cover is mainly due to urbanisation, agricultural fires, forest conversion for plantations and other forms of agriculture. Logging is also responsible and green groups have blamed local timber companies for failing to practice sustainable forest management. Peninsular Malaysia's primary forests are mostly gone, though some forest still exists in Taman Negara, a national park. Most of Malaysia's remaining primary forest exists on the island of Borneo in the states of Sabah and Sarawak, but the majority of the forest area in Malaysian Borneo, especially the lowlands, has been selectively logged, resulting in reduced biodiversity. Loggers are now operating in more marginal areas on rugged mountain slopes, which increases the risk of soil erosion and mudslides. In Sabah (North-eastern Borneo), logging has slowed over the years after a period of rapid deforestation. Timber production appears to have shifted to Sarawak (North-western Borneo), where about half the forest cover is scheduled for logging. About eight percent of the land area in Sarawak is designated as reserves, but these protected areas are generally understaffed and threatened by illegal logging and encroachment by colonists who settle along logging roads.
<<< Back to resource list

1. Reduced biodiversity

When forest cover is removed, wildlife is deprived of habitat and becomes more vulnerable to hunting. Deforestation poses a serious threat to Malaysia's biodiversity. Malaysia is home to some 15,500 species of higher plants, 746 birds, 300 mammals, 379 reptiles, 198 amphibians, and 368 species of fish.

Case Study: The Bornean Orangutan

Hunting, habitat destruction, habitat degradation and fragmentation are the main causes behind the decline in this species which is now critically endangered according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In 2010, only 59.6% of Borneo's forests were suitable for orangutans. While much of this land is technically protected by the governments, illegal logging and uncontrolled burning are still continual threats. In addition, the smaller patches of remaining forest may be unable to sustain the groups currently living there. The combined impacts of habitat loss, habitat degradation and illegal hunting equate to an 86% population reduction between 1973 and 2025.

2. Release of Greenhouse gas emissionsForests are the largest terrestrial store of carbon, but deforestation is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions after fossil fuel burning, causing 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It should be noted that converting upland dipterocarp forest into palm oil plantations does not trap as much carbon for many years.

3. Forest Fires

Periodic fires, usually coinciding with the el Niño events, burn thousands of hectares across Malaysia, especially on the island of Borneo. The haze from these fires and the fires in Kalimantan (Indonesia) cause serious pollution and health problems in Malaysia. In the 1990s, the Malaysian government reacted to fires by ordering media blackouts to avoid frightening away tourists over the health impacts. Today this has changed as the government increasingly blames Indonesia for failing to control wildfires. Such trans-boundary pollution is especially difficult to control although ASEAN is attempting to bring the parties involved together.

Case Study: The 2015 Southeast Asian haze Figure 4. A Google map image of forest fires throughout south-east Asia in September 2015.

The serious Southeast Asian haze was caused by forest fires resulting from illegal slash-and-burn practices, principally on the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. The smoke produced quickly spread in the dry season. The haze first affected Indonesia from late June to the end of October, turning into an international problem in September. It was the latest occurrence of a long-term issue that occurs in varying intensity during every dry season in the region. Unhealthy Air Pollution Index (API) readings were recorded in 24 areas in the states of Sarawak, with Selangor and Langkawi in Kedah being the worst hit by the haze.

Residents with asthma and pulmonary problems were told to stay indoors until the air quality in their areas improved. Malaysia's aviation and maritime sectors were put on high alert due to the reduced visibility caused by the haze. The education ministry stated all schools had to close if the API readings surpassed 200.

On 15th September, schools in the four states of Sarawak, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca together with the Federal Territories of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya were ordered to close temporarily. On 3rd October, the officials decided to cancel the Standard Chartered KL Marathon 2015 due to the worsening haze. On 4th October, as haze reached unhealthy levels in many parts of the country, the government announced that all states except for Kelantan, Sabah and Sarawak were to close schools again for two days. The API in Shah Alam, Selangor even hit the hazardous level of 308. Flights were also delayed and cancelled in the east coast of Sabah due to continuous haze from Kalimantan.

4. Disrupted Water Cycles

As a result of deforestation, trees no longer evaporate groundwater and precipitation rates are reduced which can cause the local climate to be much drier. Excessive deforestation around the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur, combined with the dry conditions created by el Niño, triggered strict water rationing in 1998, and for the first time the city had to import water.

5. Increased soil erosion

Deforestation increases rates of soil erosion, by increasing runoff and reducing the protection of the soil from tree litter. Only a minority of these areas have good soils, which after clearing are quickly washed away by the heavy rains. Thus crop yields decline and the people must spend income to import foreign fertilizers or clear additional forest. The problem is worsened by failure to implement erosion control measures. Very often, cleared land is left exposed for extended periods before erosion control work is carried out. In some cases, in highland areas where high-value sub-tropical crops are produced, the effects of erosion are offset by high rates of manure and fertiliser application. Although the practice of applying high rates of fertiliser and manure helps in maintaining reasonable levels of crop production, the unchecked losses of soil, nutrients and chemicals through erosion processes contribute to downstream pollution and sedimentation. These are major environmental problems in some highland districts of Malaysia.

References

BBC Business (2013) South East Asia haze: What is slash-and-burn?
Bell, L. (2016) Bornean orangutan declared 'critically endangered' as forests shrink. Mongabay.
Bryan et al (2009) Extreme Differences in Forest Degradation in Borneo: Comparing Practices in Sarawak, Sabah, and Brunei.
Butler, R. (2013) Tropical Rain Forests. Malaysia. Mongabay. Butler, R. (2012) Impact of deforestation: Local and National Consequences. Mongabay. The New Straits Times (2015) Standard Chartered KL Marathon cancelled due to haze.
The Straits Times (2015) Selangor worst hit by haze in Malaysia; air quality unhealthy in several areas.
The Straits Times (2015) Unhealthy air quality in many parts of Malaysia.
The Straits Times. (2015) Sarawak worst-hit by haze in Malaysia as schools shut.
Webb, T. (2015) Political posturing while Asian forests keep burning.Sustainability=Smart Business.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
What are the environmental impacts of deforestation in Malaysia

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Figure 1. An all too common sight throughout Malaysia. Hillsides cleared of hardwood timber - teak and other dipterocarps, in preparation for the planting of palm oil trees. [August 2016] ©Dr Kevin Cook This article looks at the rates of current deforestation in Malaysia and to what extent this is having an environmental effect on the region.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
So far we have considered only small scale ecosystems using an example of a pond. However, we must also consider ecosystems at a global scale. These ecosystems are known as BIOMES. A biome is a large naturally occurring community of flora (plants) and fauna (animals) occupying a major habitat. The biome is suited to the climate and locality it is placed. Biomes can be spread across continents and although they share similar characteristics, there will be differences in the species of plants and animals that live in those locations. Tropical rainforest in Africa will not be identical to tropical rainforests in Asia for example.

Temperate Deciduous forests
The biome for the UK is a temperate deciduous forest. The word temperate implies that the climate is reasonably stable with not great variation throughout the year. Deciduous forests are those that have trees with broadleaves (e.g. Oak) that are shed in the autumn months. Farming has cleared much of the forest in the UK. Deciduous forests are found in the mid-latitudes which have reasonably evenly spread rainfall throughout the year and winters that are cool but not cold. They are found in Eastern North America, Western Europe and some parts of eastern Asia. They tend to disappear in the interiors of continents as temperatures become more extreme and precipitation levels fall.

The major ecosystems can be seen above, and an overview of their major characteristics is outlined below;
* Tropical Rainforest - This is a very hot and wet biome located on or around the Equator. These forests are well known for their Biodiversity (the variety of plant and animal life in the world or in a particular habitat)
* Tropical Savannah - A dry and hot area composed of mainly grassland and scattered shrubs and isolated trees, which can be found between a tropical rainforest and desert biome in Africa, Arabia and even Australia.
* Desert - This biome is very hot and also very, very dry. Found around 30°N and S of the Equator and includes famous examples such as the Sahara, the Namib and Thar deserts.
* Chaparral (Mediterranean) - evergreen trees and shrubs in Atlas) - found around the Mediterranean Sea and consists of vegetation that can survive drought conditions within the summer months. Includes aromatic shrubs and citrus fruits.
* - rolling terrain of grasses, flowers and herbs. Found mainly in the interior of Europe/Asia and North America. They have been adapted to grow grains such as wheat.
* Temperate Deciduous Forest - few extremes of climate and can be found in the eastern half of North America, and the west of Europe. It can also be found in Asia. The forest has four distinct seasons.
* Temperate Boreal Forest - Also known as the taiga, this biome is a northern coniferous (evergreen) forest. Found north of temperate deciduous forests in Canada, Europe, Asia, and the United States
* Arctic and Alpine Tundra - covers one-fifth of the land on earth. It is below freezing at night year round and the meaning of its name comes from Lappish language (Lapland) which means "land with no trees".

NEXT TOPIC - Living World - Tropical Rainforest Characteristics

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Coolgeography - GCSE - Distribution of ecosystems

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
So far we have considered only small scale ecosystems using an example of a pond. However, we must also consider ecosystems at a global scale. These ecosystems are known as BIOMES. A biome is a large naturally occurring community of flora (plants) and fauna (animals) occupying a major habitat.

# data[].attributes.headline
How have humans impacted Nutrient Cycles?

# data[].attributes.subject
How have humans impacted Nutrient Cycles?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Humanity has already breached four of the nine ecological boundaries outlined in 2009 by Johan Rockström: climate change, loss of biodiversity, land-system change, and nutrient cycles.

Most of us are familiar with the threats of declining biodiversity, deforestation, and global heating. However, nutrient cycles remain less well understood by the general public and by environmentalists.

Nitrogen and phosphorus are the two primary biological nutrients that circulate through Earth's ecosystems. Every living organism on Earth requires both elements to form proteins and vital organic compounds. Both are required for our genetic DNA. Cells require nitrogen and phosphorus to make proteins, enzymes, and other organic compounds essential for life.

We typically add nitrogen and phosphorus to our gardens and farms in animal manure and synthetic fertilizer. However, human activity has so thoroughly disrupted Earth's natural nutrient cycles that we have degraded soils and created aquatic dead zones.
Human influences
During the nineteenth century, European nations mined potassium nitrate (KNO 3 ) and imported bird and bat guano from Pacific islands to enrich their exhausted soils. As reserves of these nitrogen sources depleted, scientists sought ways to convert atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia. In Germany, Fritz Haber succeeded and by 1913, BASF chemical company was producing 20 tonnes of ammonia per day.

Industrial fertilizer has allowed the modern growth of human population. However, as we so often learn in ecology, there exist unintended consequences.

The use of fertilizer introduces new sources of nitrogen and phosphorus to the ecosystem, and concentrates these nutrients within certain watersheds. Typically, we think of a "nutrient" as a good thing. Nutrients make things grow. However, ecology is never that simple.

By pulling nitrogen and phosphate out of the environment and concentrating these elements in our agricultural and residential septic run-off, we have overloaded certain watersheds. The annual loading is now about 8.5 million tonnes of phosphorus and 54 million tonnes of nitrogen per year. Typically, if the local plant community cannot take up the added nutrient load, the nutrients move through groundwater, ditches, and streams into lakes and oceans.

Throughout the world, lakes and marine shorelines become "over-productive" (eutrophic) where a few plant or bacteria species feast on the nutrients and choke out other lifeforms. Eutrophication can create dead zones and putrid lakes. Fish and amphibians can die out, leaving festering swamps. Swamps, of course, are part of nature too, but human activity has vastly accelerated this process and altered critical habitats.

The disruption of Earth's nutrient cycles remains as urgent as global heating and biodiversity loss. To come up with solutions, we must first understand the natural nutrient cycles of a healthy ecosystem.
The Nitrogen Cycle Visualisation of the Nitrogen cycle from the US Geological Survey
Nitrogen gas, N 2 , comprises about 78 % of our atmosphere, but is not readily available for organic use. Certain bacteria in Earth's soils can capture nitrogen and convert it to ammonia, NH 3 , which they use for their own growth and reproduction, leaving some surplus for plants to absorb.

These nitrogen-fixing bacteria also live in the roots of certain plants, such a beans, peas, clover, and alfalfa. In a typical symbiosis, these plants provide the bacteria a home and carbohydrates. In return, the bacteria convert nitrogen to usable ammonia. Any extra ammonia remains in the soil for other plants.

This leads to the common practice of crop rotation in gardens and farms. After a particular food crop has depleted the soil of nitrogen, the grower may plant a legume crop to restore nitrogen. Farmers in the Indus, Yangtze, Huang Ho, and Mesopotamian river valleys had figured this out by 5,000 years ago, long before anyone understood organic chemistry.

Doubled the rate of nitrogen input into terrestrial ecosystems

Increased the greenhouse gas N 2 O globally, contributing to photochemical smog

Depleted calcium and potassium in soils, undermining long ‐ term soil fertility

Contributed to acidification of soils, streams, and lakes

Increased the eutrophication of lakes, rivers, estuaries, and coastal oceans

Diminished biological diversity

Reduced coastal marine fisheries

Taking action
As with virtually all ecological challenges, the scale of human enterprise remains a primary driver. Soils can naturally replenish nutrients after a modest harvest of crops, but not after an endlessly increasing harvest. Watershed ecosystems can process a certain increase in nutrient flow but not an endlessly increasing flow. On a national and regional level, we have to ask: what are nature's limits?

In local gardening, small farming, and in industrial farming, we need to avoid nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizers, and use all fertilizer and manure sparingly. Both gardeners and farmers must consider how much nutrient load their crops can actually absorb, and apply no more than this.

Farmers, gardeners, residents, and industry need to manage the uptake from their nutrient flow. This can be achieved with swales, dry wells, rainwater catchment, aerobic treatment, and bioremediation. All residential and industrial septic and sewage systems also need be maintained, cleaned, and inspected, to ensure optimum operation.

Ranchers, pet owners, and small farms have to manage manure run-off. Manure should be removed from fields, isolated from precipitation, and composted prior to use as a soil additive.

Clearing, paving, road building, logging, and construction all reduce natural plant uptake and increase nutrient flow into waterways. Road ditching and culverts should attempt to restore natural groundwater flow, not collect water in ditches.

Biological techniques use bacteria, fungi, and plants to remove or metabolize nutrients and pollutants. Bioremediation occurs naturally in healthy ecosystems and can be enhanced by design. Disturbed shorelines should be replanted with native species, especially those with high nutrient uptake, such as cattails ( typha species). Certain useful mushroom species, such as Garden Giant ( Stropharia rugosoannulata ) can absorb nutrients and metabolize pollutants.

We can reverse the trend of increasing marine dead zones and eutrophic lakes. To achieve this, however, we must accept the evidence that nature's bounty comes with limits.
Rex Weyler is an author, journalist and co-founder of Greenpeace International. Resources and Links
"An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle," Nicolas Gruber & James N. Galloway

Nature , v. 451, 2008.

R. Carpenter, "Regime shifts in lake ecosystems," Excellence in Ecology Series, v. 15, Ecology Institute, 2003); book review at Center for Limnology.

"Human Impact on Erodable Phosphorus and Eutrophication: A Global Perspective: Increasing accumulation of phosphorus in soil threatens rivers, lakes, and coastal oceans with eutrophication,"

" Bioremediation of Contaminated Soil, " Dana L. Donlan and J.W. Bauder, Montana State University

"Helping the Ecosystem through mushroom cultivation: mycoremediation," Paul Stamets, Fungi Perfecti

Bioremediation, "Collaborating with Biohabitats," John Todd, Ecological Design

about the author

Rex Weyler was a director of the original Greenpeace Foundation, the editor of the organisation's first newsletter, and a co-founder of Greenpeace International in 1979. Rex's column reflects on the roots of activism, environmentalism, and Greenpeace's past, present, and future. The opinions here are his own. Follow him on Twitter or visit his personal website.

by Carol Marçal

Twenty-six-year-old Paulo Paulino Guajajara's life was violently taken as he was trying to protect the territory of his people from the greed of those who only see money when they...

by Greenpeace International

An estimated 640,000 tonnes of abandoned or lost fishing equipment enter the ocean every year, making up around 10% of the plastic waste in our oceans.

by Greenpeace International

The Abandoned Fishing Nets Haunting Our Oceans Pollution of the world's oceans is a growing and pervasive problem, and that is especially true of the increasing volume of ocean plastic.

Humanity has already breached four of the nine ecological boundaries outlined in 2009 by Johan Rockström: climate change, loss of biodiversity, land-system change, and nutrient cycles.

Most of us are familiar with the threats of declining biodiversity, deforestation, and global heating. However, nutrient cycles remain less well understood by the general public and by environmentalists.

Nitrogen and phosphorus are the two primary biological nutrients that circulate through Earth's ecosystems. Every living organism on Earth requires both elements to form proteins and vital organic compounds. Both are required for our genetic DNA. Cells require nitrogen and phosphorus to make proteins, enzymes, and other organic compounds essential for life.

We typically add nitrogen and phosphorus to our gardens and farms in animal manure and synthetic fertilizer. However, human activity has so thoroughly disrupted Earth's natural nutrient cycles that we have degraded soils and created aquatic dead zones.
Human influences
During the nineteenth century, European nations mined potassium nitrate (KNO 3 ) and imported bird and bat guano from Pacific islands to enrich their exhausted soils. As reserves of these nitrogen sources depleted, scientists sought ways to convert atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia. In Germany, Fritz Haber succeeded and by 1913, BASF chemical company was producing 20 tonnes of ammonia per day.

Industrial fertilizer has allowed the modern growth of human population. However, as we so often learn in ecology, there exist unintended consequences.

The use of fertilizer introduces new sources of nitrogen and phosphorus to the ecosystem, and concentrates these nutrients within certain watersheds. Typically, we think of a "nutrient" as a good thing. Nutrients make things grow. However, ecology is never that simple.

By pulling nitrogen and phosphate out of the environment and concentrating these elements in our agricultural and residential septic run-off, we have overloaded certain watersheds. The annual loading is now about 8.5 million tonnes of phosphorus and 54 million tonnes of nitrogen per year. Typically, if the local plant community cannot take up the added nutrient load, the nutrients move through groundwater, ditches, and streams into lakes and oceans.

Throughout the world, lakes and marine shorelines become "over-productive" (eutrophic) where a few plant or bacteria species feast on the nutrients and choke out other lifeforms. Eutrophication can create dead zones and putrid lakes. Fish and amphibians can die out, leaving festering swamps. Swamps, of course, are part of nature too, but human activity has vastly accelerated this process and altered critical habitats.

The disruption of Earth's nutrient cycles remains as urgent as global heating and biodiversity loss. To come up with solutions, we must first understand the natural nutrient cycles of a healthy ecosystem.
The Nitrogen Cycle Visualisation of the Nitrogen cycle from the US Geological Survey
Nitrogen gas, N 2 , comprises about 78 % of our atmosphere, but is not readily available for organic use. Certain bacteria in Earth's soils can capture nitrogen and convert it to ammonia, NH 3 , which they use for their own growth and reproduction, leaving some surplus for plants to absorb.

These nitrogen-fixing bacteria also live in the roots of certain plants, such a beans, peas, clover, and alfalfa. In a typical symbiosis, these plants provide the bacteria a home and carbohydrates. In return, the bacteria convert nitrogen to usable ammonia. Any extra ammonia remains in the soil for other plants.

This leads to the common practice of crop rotation in gardens and farms. After a particular food crop has depleted the soil of nitrogen, the grower may plant a legume crop to restore nitrogen. Farmers in the Indus, Yangtze, Huang Ho, and Mesopotamian river valleys had figured this out by 5,000 years ago, long before anyone understood organic chemistry.

Doubled the rate of nitrogen input into terrestrial ecosystems

Increased the greenhouse gas N 2 O globally, contributing to photochemical smog

Depleted calcium and potassium in soils, undermining long ‐ term soil fertility

Contributed to acidification of soils, streams, and lakes

Increased the eutrophication of lakes, rivers, estuaries, and coastal oceans

Diminished biological diversity

Reduced coastal marine fisheries

Taking action
As with virtually all ecological challenges, the scale of human enterprise remains a primary driver. Soils can naturally replenish nutrients after a modest harvest of crops, but not after an endlessly increasing harvest. Watershed ecosystems can process a certain increase in nutrient flow but not an endlessly increasing flow. On a national and regional level, we have to ask: what are nature's limits?

In local gardening, small farming, and in industrial farming, we need to avoid nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizers, and use all fertilizer and manure sparingly. Both gardeners and farmers must consider how much nutrient load their crops can actually absorb, and apply no more than this.

Farmers, gardeners, residents, and industry need to manage the uptake from their nutrient flow. This can be achieved with swales, dry wells, rainwater catchment, aerobic treatment, and bioremediation. All residential and industrial septic and sewage systems also need be maintained, cleaned, and inspected, to ensure optimum operation.

Ranchers, pet owners, and small farms have to manage manure run-off. Manure should be removed from fields, isolated from precipitation, and composted prior to use as a soil additive.

Clearing, paving, road building, logging, and construction all reduce natural plant uptake and increase nutrient flow into waterways. Road ditching and culverts should attempt to restore natural groundwater flow, not collect water in ditches.

Biological techniques use bacteria, fungi, and plants to remove or metabolize nutrients and pollutants. Bioremediation occurs naturally in healthy ecosystems and can be enhanced by design. Disturbed shorelines should be replanted with native species, especially those with high nutrient uptake, such as cattails ( typha species). Certain useful mushroom species, such as Garden Giant ( Stropharia rugosoannulata ) can absorb nutrients and metabolize pollutants.

We can reverse the trend of increasing marine dead zones and eutrophic lakes. To achieve this, however, we must accept the evidence that nature's bounty comes with limits.
Rex Weyler is an author, journalist and co-founder of Greenpeace International. Resources and Links
"An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle," Nicolas Gruber & James N. Galloway

Nature , v. 451, 2008.

R. Carpenter, "Regime shifts in lake ecosystems," Excellence in Ecology Series, v. 15, Ecology Institute, 2003); book review at Center for Limnology.

"Human Impact on Erodable Phosphorus and Eutrophication: A Global Perspective: Increasing accumulation of phosphorus in soil threatens rivers, lakes, and coastal oceans with eutrophication,"

" Bioremediation of Contaminated Soil, " Dana L. Donlan and J.W. Bauder, Montana State University

"Helping the Ecosystem through mushroom cultivation: mycoremediation," Paul Stamets, Fungi Perfecti

Bioremediation, "Collaborating with Biohabitats," John Todd, Ecological Design

by Carol Marçal

Twenty-six-year-old Paulo Paulino Guajajara's life was violently taken as he was trying to protect the territory of his people from the greed of those who only see money when they...

by Greenpeace International

An estimated 640,000 tonnes of abandoned or lost fishing equipment enter the ocean every year, making up around 10% of the plastic waste in our oceans.

by Greenpeace International

The Abandoned Fishing Nets Haunting Our Oceans Pollution of the world's oceans is a growing and pervasive problem, and that is especially true of the increasing volume of ocean plastic.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
How can we restore Earth's nutrient cycles? - Rex Weyler

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Humanity has already breached four of the nine ecological boundaries outlined in 2009 by Johan Rockström: climate change, loss of biodiversity, land-system change, and nutrient cycles. Most of us are familiar with the threats of declining biodiversity, deforestation, and global heating. However, nutrient cycles remain less well understood by the general public and by environmentalists.

# data[].attributes.headline
Rainforest Destruction, Threats to the Rainforest...

# data[].attributes.subject
Rainforest Destruction, Threats to the Rainforest...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
If you want to see the world's climate changing, fly over a tropical country. Thirty years ago, a wide belt of rainforest circled the earth, covering much of Latin America, south-east Asia and Africa. Today, it is being rapidly replaced by great swathes of palm oil trees and rubber plantations, land cleared for cattle grazing, soya farming, expanding cities, dams and logging.

People have been deforesting the tropics for thousands of years for timber and farming, but now, nothing less than the physical transformation of the Earth is taking place. Every year about 18m hectares of forest - an area the size of England and Wales - is felled. In just 40 years, possibly 1bn hectares, the equivalent of Europe, has gone. Half the world's rainforests have been razed in a century, and the latest satellite analysis shows that in the last 15 years new hotspots have emerged from Cambodia to Liberia. At current rates, they will vanish altogether in 100 years.

About 12% of all man-made climate emissions now comes from deforestation, mostly in tropical areas

As fast as the trees go, the chance of slowing or reversing climate change becomes slimmer. Tropical deforestation causes carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, to linger in the atmosphere and trap solar radiation. This raises temperatures and leads to climate change: deforestation in Latin America, Asia and Africa can affect rainfall and weather everywhere from the US Midwest, to Europe and China.

The consensus of the world's atmospheric scientists is that about 12% of all man-made climate emissions - nearly as much as the world's 1.2bn cars and lorries - now comes from deforestation, mostly in tropical areas. Conserving forests is critical; the carbon locked up in Democratic Republic of the Congo's 150m hectares of forests are nearly three times the world's global annual emissions.

And as the forests come down, the people who live in or around them and depend on them become impoverished. Without the forests, people migrate to cities, or move to richer countries in search of work. The world's rainforests not only provide food, energy security, incomes and medicinal plants for 300 million people, but are home to the richest wildlife in the world.

So, what to do? The positive news is that all countries formally pledged at the Paris climate summit in December 2015 to reduce emissions and keep global temperature rises to well below 2C; and in so doing they recognised that this would not be possible without stopping or at least reducing tropical deforestation.

The 50 or more developing countries who share the world's tropical forests all recognised their contribution and promised to crack down on illegal forestry, replant trees and restore degraded forest lands.

Some countries were highly ambitious. China, Brazil, Bolivia and Congo DRC together put forward targets that could protect over 50 million hectares of forest over the next 15 years, an area the size of Spain.

Indonesia, the world's sixth largest carbon emitter, promised to cut its emissions by 29% by ending illegal deforestation and restoring 12m hectares of forested land. Ecuador said that it planned to restore 500,000 hectares of forest land by 2017 and then increase that amount by 100,000 hectares a year. Honduras committed to plant or restore 1m hectares of forest by 2030.

If countries stick to their pledges and let damaged forests recover, annual global greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by as much as 24 to 30% - an enormous step.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

A logging mill in the Amazon Basin, Peru. Photograph: Jason Edwards/Getty Images/National Geographic Magazines

The science and economics needed to stem deforestation are in place, but there is one huge caveat: countries with tropical forests are some of the poorest in the world, desperate to develop and use their natural resources to grow their economies. Their pledges to stop or reduce deforestation are mostly conditional on rich countries financially and technically helping them achieve this - and the onus on reducing emissions is on these rich countries which have historically caused most climate change.

Rich countries pledged at Paris to raise $100bn a year to help poor countries reduce their emissions. Some of that money should go to tropical forest protection.

In addition, a new UN-backed mechanism called Redd (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) has been initiated that involves rich countries paying countries to protect forests and the carbon stored within them. Tropical and sub-tropical countries could receive both public and private funding if they succeed in reducing their emissions from deforestation. But this is deeply controversial as global schemes are prone to corruption, difficult to implement and hard to measure.

If there is money to protect forests, will it go to big companies as subsidy, or lead to evictions of people and human rights abuses?

There must be safeguards, but Germany, Norway and the UK have together promised up to $1bn a year for Redd schemes until 2020. The World Bank plans to contribute a similar amount to work with African countries. A further fund is intended to benefit indigenous and other forest communities which have been the traditional protectors of the forest.

Until Paris, stopping tropical deforestation was at best unlikely and probably impossible. It remains very difficult, but a political and financial mechanism has now been created to incentivise countries, companies and communities to do so at a fraction of the cost of reducing comparable emissions in the US or Europe. Protecting the forests now depends on rich governments not ducking their responsibilities and playing their part.

Join our community of development professionals and humanitarians. Follow@GuardianGDP on Twitter Topics

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.keywords[]
cop 21: un climate change conference | paris

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
We are destroying rainforests so quickly they may be gone in 100 years | John Vidal

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
If you want to see the world's climate changing, fly over a tropical country. Thirty years ago, a wide belt of rainforest circled the earth, covering much of Latin America, south-east Asia and Africa. Today, it is being rapidly replaced by great swathes of palm oil trees and rubber plantations, land cleared for cattle grazing, soya farming, expanding cities, dams and logging.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Rainforests play an invaluable role in sustaining life, but every year large portions of them are cut down for logging, mining, and cattle ranches.

Found on every continent except Antarctica, rainforests are ecosystems filled with mostly evergreen trees that typically receive high amounts of rainfall. Tropical rainforests are found near the equator, with high average temperatures and humidity, while temperate rainforests lie mostly in coastal, mountainous areas within the mid-latitudes.

A rainforest is typically made up of four key layers: emergent, upper canopy, understory, and forest floor. In the top emergent layer, trees as tall as 200 feet (60 meters) grow far apart and tall, their branches reaching above the canopy. The upper canopy, a deep layer of vegetation roughly 20 feet (6 meters) thick, houses most of the rainforest's animal species and forms a roof that blocks most light from reaching below.

Below the canopy, the understory is a low-light layer dominated by shorter plants with broad leaves, such as palms and philodendrons. On the dark forest floor, few plants are able to grow and decaying matter from the upper layers is prevalent, feeding the roots of the trees.

Why "rain" forests?

Rainforests are often partly self-watering. Plants release water into the atmosphere through a process called transpiration. The moisture helps create the thick cloud cover that hangs over most rainforests. Even when it's not raining, these clouds keep the rainforest humid and warm.

Rainforest loss

Deforestation is endangering rainforests worldwide, driven by logging, mining, agriculture, and ranching. About 17 percent of the Amazonian rainforest has been destroyed over the past 50 years, and losses recently have been on the rise. Tropical rainforest now covers about six percent of Earth's land surface.

Two countries accounted for 46 percent of the primary (meaning old-growth, undisturbed) tropical rainforest loss in 2018: Brazil, which is home to more than half the Amazon, and Indonesia, where forests are cut down to make way for producing palm oil, which can be found in everything from shampoo to saltines. In other countries, such as Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Democratic Republic of the Congo, loss rates are rising considerably. In many cases, such as logged areas, the soil damage makes it difficult for rainforests to regenerate, and the biodiversity found in them is irreplaceable.

Rainforest benefits

When we lose rainforests, we lose an important natural resource. Tropical rainforests are centers of biodiversity, holding an estimated half of the world's plants and animals, many of which have yet to be catalogued (some scientists estimate that it's two-thirds of the world's plants). Rainforests produce, store, and filter water, protecting against soil erosion, floods, and drought.

Many of the plants found in rainforests are being used to make medicine, including anti-cancer drugs, along with beauty products and foods. One drug under development for treating HIV, Calanolide A, is derived from a tree discovered on Malaysian Borneo. And Brazil nut trees refuse to grow anywhere but in undisturbed sections of the Amazon rainforest. There, the trees are pollinated by bees that also visit orchids, and their seeds are spread by agoutis, small tree mammals. Rainforests are also home to endangered or protected animals such as the Sumatran rhino, orangutans, and jaguars.

Forest trees also absorb carbon, an important function needed as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions stoke climate change. Rainforest loss is a double-whammy for the climate: It contributes emissions while removing a future potential source of carbon storage. Human activity has caused tropical rainforests to emit more carbon dioxide than they absorb at this point, according to one study.

Rainforest protection

Organisations and governments around the world are engaged in trying to protect rainforests. In Indonesia, notes Global Forest Watch, primary forest loss in 2017 dropped to its lowest rate since 2003 after the government enacted policies to protect certain areas.

Conservation groups, activists, and indigenous communities also play an important role. National Geographic Explorer Topher White, for example, has come up with a way to use recycled mobile phones to monitor for chainsaws, while other groups, including the Rainforest Action Network and Conservation International, are working to monitor forests and create economies that thrive by protecting these ecosystems rather than destroying them, such as local tourism and sustainable products. In Brazil, thousands of indigenous people have staged demonstrations to reinforce their claim to threatened lands, arguing that they are often better stewards of rainforests and the wildlife they contain than national governments. Other efforts focus on reforestation, planting trees and reintroducing wildlife-in the Amazon, for example, a large-scale project announced in 2017 aims to plant 73 million trees.

You can help too. Support conservation efforts, consider ecotourism holidays, and look for sustainable products and meats where possible, using certifications and ratings from nonprofit groups such as the Forest Stewardship Council, the Rainforest Alliance, and the World Wildlife Fund.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Rainforests play an invaluable role in sustaining life, but every year large portions of them are cut down for logging, mining, and cattle ranches. Found on every continent except Antarctica, rainforests are ecosystems filled with mostly evergreen trees that typically receive high amounts of rainfall.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Harness the power of maps to tell stories that matter. ArcGIS StoryMaps has everything you need to create remarkable stories that give your maps meaning.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Nepal earthquake of 2015, severe earthquake that struck near the city of Kathmandu in central Nepal on April 25, 2015. About 9,000 people were killed, many thousands more were injured, and more than 600,000 structures in Kathmandu and other nearby towns were either damaged or destroyed. The earthquake was felt throughout central and eastern Nepal, much of the Ganges River plain in northern India, and northwestern Bangladesh, as well as in the southern parts of the Plateau of Tibet and western Bhutan.

The initial shock, which registered a moment magnitude of 7.8, struck shortly before noon local time (about 06:11 am Greenwich Mean Time). Its epicentre was about 21 miles (34 km) east-southeast of Lamjung and 48 miles (77 km) northwest of Kathmandu, and its focus was 9.3 miles (about 15 km) underground. Two large aftershocks, with magnitudes 6.6 and 6.7, shook the region within one day of the main quake, and several dozen smaller aftershocks occurred in the region during the succeeding days. On May 12 a magnitude-7.3 aftershock struck some 76 km (47 miles) east-northeast of Kathmandu, killing more than 100 people and injuring nearly 1,900.

The earthquake and its aftershocks were the result of thrust faulting (i.e., compression-driven fracturing) in the Indus-Yarlung suture zone, a thin east-west region spanning roughly the length of the Himalayan ranges. The earthquake relieved compressional pressure between the Eurasian tectonic plate and the Indian section of the Indo-Australian Plate, which subducts (underthrusts) the Eurasian Plate. Subduction in the Himalayas occurs at an average rate of 1.6-2 inches (4-5 cm) annually. Such tectonic activity adds more than 0.4 inch (1 cm) to the height of the Himalayan mountains every year.

The Himalayan region is one of the most seismically active in the world, but large earthquakes have occurred there infrequently. Before the 2015 temblor, the most recent large earthquake (that is, magnitude 6.0 or above) took place in 1988. That magnitude-6.9 event resulted in the deaths of 1,500 people. A magnitude-8.0 earthquake in 1934, however, killed approximately 10,600 people.

Initial reports of casualties following the early-morning earthquake put the death toll in the hundreds, but, as the day wore on, reports had the total number of fatalities surpassing 1,000 and nearing 1,900 by the end of the day. Within two weeks after the main quake occurred, rescue teams had reached all the remote villages in the earthquake zone, and a more-accurate picture of the earthquake's human cost emerged. The deaths of approximately 9,000 people (which included fatalities in nearby parts of India, China, and Bangladesh) were confirmed, with nearly 16,800 injured and some 2.8 million people displaced by the earthquake. One United Nations (UN) report mentioned that more than eight million people (more than one-fourth of Nepal's population) were affected by the event and its aftermath.

The earthquake produced landslides that devastated rural villages and some of the most densely populated parts of the city of Kathmandu. Initial damage estimates ranged from $5 billion to $10 billion. Inside Kathmandu, bricks and other debris from collapsed and partially collapsed buildings, which included parts of the famous Taleju Temple and the entire nine-story Dharahara Tower, filled the streets. The earthquake also triggered an avalanche on Mount Everest that killed at least 19 climbers and stranded hundreds more at Everest Base Camp and at camps higher up the mountain. Those at the high camps were soon airlifted to Base Camp, and all the climbers either hiked off the mountain or were flown out to other locations.

Immediately after the quake, the Nepalese government declared a state of emergency, and soon nearly the entire Nepalese army was assisting in rescue and recovery work. Nepal also called on the international community for aid. The UN quickly established the "Nepal Earthquake 2015 Flash Appeal" fund, whose goal was to raise an estimated $415 million for Nepal's earthquake relief. By some two weeks after the earthquake, more than $330 million had been either provided directly or pledged.

India, China, and several other countries quickly responded by sending in aid and rescue teams. The delivery of relief services to the people in need during the first few days after the earthquake occurred, however, was complicated by the remoteness of many villages from the existing transportation network, congestion at Kathmandu's international airport, and a shortage of heavy trucks, helicopters, and other vehicles capable of transporting supplies. In addition, earthquake debris-along with "tent cities" erected in streets and other open areas by Kathmandu residents who feared going back to their homes-contributed to making many of the city's streets virtually impassable, hampering efforts by rescuers to reach people still trapped in the rubble. The debris was gradually cleared.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Nepal earthquake of 2015 | Magnitude, Death Toll, Aftermath, & Facts

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Nepal earthquake of 2015, severe earthquake that struck near Kathmandu in central Nepal on April 25, 2015. About 9,000 people were killed, many thousands more were injured, and more than 600,000 structures in Kathmandu and other nearby towns were either damaged or destroyed.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Chile earthquake of 2010, severe earthquake that occurred on February 27, 2010, off the coast of south-central Chile, causing widespread damage on land and initiating a tsunami that devastated some coastal areas of the country. Together, the earthquake and tsunami were responsible for more than 500 deaths.

Earthquake and tsunami

The magnitude-8.8 earthquake struck at 3:34 am. The epicentre was located some 200 miles (325 km) southwest of the Chilean capital of Santiago, and the focus occurred at a depth of about 22 miles (35 km) below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake-resulting from the rupture of a 300- to 375-mile (500- to 600-km) stretch of the fault that separates the South American Plate from the subducting Nazca Plate-was felt as far away as São Paolo, Brazil, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. A 2014 study contended that water pressure built up between the two plates had been the catalyst. The initial event was succeeded in the following weeks by hundreds of aftershocks, many of them of magnitude 5.0 or greater. The temblor was the strongest to strike the region since the magnitude-9.5 event of 1960, considered to be the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. ( See Chile earthquake of 1960.)

Because the region's violent tectonic history had made it a focus of seismological study and monitoring, extant GPS sensors installed in Chile and neighbouring countries allowed the detection of subtle shifts in the location of cities, including Concepción and even Buenos Aires, as a result of the quake. A NASA computer model ascertained that the powerful force of the subducting plate had shifted Earth 's axis sufficiently to shorten the day by more than a microsecond. A study of the aftershocks released in 2014 indicated that two anomalously dense rock structures beneath the South American Plate, previously undetected, had likely slowed the rupture and, as a result, intensified shaking at the surface.

Stress brought on by the convergence of the two tectonic plates caused rocks to shatter along the boundary between them. This forced a portion of the seabed upward, displacing the water above and triggering a tsunami. The Chilean town of Constitución was inundated by waves as high as 50 feet (15 metres), and the port of Talcahuano was damaged by a wave measuring nearly 8 feet (2.4 metres) high. Traveling across the Pacific Ocean at nearly 450 miles (725 km) per hour, the tsunami encountered the Juan Fernández Islands, located approximately 420 miles (675 km) off the coast of Chile. Although observers on the largest of the Juan Fernández Islands reported waves as high as 10 feet (3 metres), the tsunami weakened significantly before it reached the coasts of California, Hawaii, New Zealand, and Japan over the next several hours.

A study published in August 2014 noted that the temblor triggered small earthquakes in Antarctica. It was the first direct evidence that earthquakes could trigger secondary seismic events in the Antarctic's ice sheets.

Damage

Though damage to structures within the zone of the earthquake was likely limited by stringent building codes instituted in the wake of the 1960 earthquake and revised several times during the 1990s, many buildings still sustained significant damage, including nearly 400,000 homes. Particularly affected were Maule and Biobío, two first-order administrative districts along Chile's southern coast. Large areas of Biobío were left without major services, including water, electricity, and gas, and the tall buildings of Concepción-the capital of the district and one of Chile's largest cities-were among those most severely damaged. Copper production-a major contributor to Chile's economy-was halted at several mines, though it resumed after limited power was restored the day after the quake. The weakened state of the electrical grid became apparent when large swathes of the country-including Santiago, which had already endured a week without power following the catastrophe-were faced with a daylong blackout in mid-March after a major transformer failed.

Chilean government officials estimated that two million people had been directly affected by the quake. The Chilean National Emergency Office-initially responsible for documenting the casualties-estimated that more than 800 had died. However, as the Interior Ministry reviewed the data in the following weeks, the official total fluctuated significantly as missing persons were located and computational errors were discovered, leading to a reduction of the death toll by hundreds. Official tallies ultimately attributed more than 500 deaths to the disaster; 150 of those casualties were caused by the tsunami. Most fatalities occurred in the Maule district, with further deaths occurring in Biobío and in coastal and island areas damaged by the tsunami. In Concepción the limited availability of food and gasoline led to widespread looting-a phenomenon that later expanded to nonessential items such as televisions-and the consequent arrest of several dozen people. Chilean Pres. Michelle Bachelet arranged for food retailers to distribute necessities free of charge by the next day, but sporadic theft continued into the week as assistance proved slow to arrive. Isolated areas were particularly vulnerable to looting as the need for supplies became increasingly acute.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Chile earthquake of 2010 | Tsunami, Deaths, Recovery, & Facts

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Chile earthquake of 2010, severe earthquake that occurred on February 27, 2010, off the coast of south-central Chile, causing widespread damage on land and initiating a tsunami that devastated some coastal areas of the country. Together, the earthquake and tsunami were responsible for more than 500 deaths.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The surface of the earth is divided into seven major and eight minor plates.

Each plate is in motion relative to its neighbours, resulting in geological activity at the plate boundaries. It is also possible, though less common, for geological activity to take place in the middle of plates.

There are three types of plate boundaries: divergent, convergent and conservative.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The surface of the earth is divided into seven major and eight minor plates. Each plate is in motion relative to its neighbours, resulting in geological activity at the plate boundaries. It is also possible, though less common, for geological activity to take place in the middle of plates.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Typhoon Haiyan was a tropical cyclone that affected the Philippines in South East Asia in November 2013. It was one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded with winds of 313 km/h. In some areas, 281.9 mm of rainfall was recorded, much of which fell in under 12 hours. Waves of up to 7 m in height battered the coast. The Philippines is a fairly poor part of the world with minimal investment in prediction, planning and protection schemes.

Typhoon Haiyan had significant economic, social and environmental impact.

Economic impacts

The overall economic impact of Typhoon Haiyan is estimated at $5.8 billion (£3.83 billion).

Six million workers lost their sources of income.

Major rice, corn and sugar-producing areas for the Philippines were destroyed affecting the country's international trade and farmers' incomes.

Tacloban's city airport was severely damaged, affecting business and tourism.

Fishing communities were severely affected with the storm destroying 30,000 boats and associated equipment.

Social impacts

More than 7,000 people were killed by Typhoon Haiyan.

1.9 million people were left homeless and more than 6,000,000 displaced.

There were outbreaks of disease due to the lack of sanitation, food, water, shelter, and medication.

Less affected areas reported that their populations more than doubled after the typhoon with the influx of refugees.

The Tacloban city government was devastated, with only 70 people at work in the immediate days after the disaster compared to 2,500 normally. Many were killed, injured, lost family or were simply too traumatised to work.

In the city of Tacloban, widespread looting took place in the days following the typhoon.

Environmental impacts

Widespread floods damaged and in many cases destroyed homes and businesses in coastal areas.

The Philippine government estimated that about 71,000 hectares of farmland was affected.

Thousands of trees were uprooted leading to a massive release of carbon dioxide and loss of habitat with resulting effects on wildlife.

Flooding knocked over Power Barge 103 causing an oil spill affecting mangrove ecosystems.

Major roads were blocked by trees, and were impassable.

Responses

Even though the loss of life was significant, it could have been much worse if not for the efforts of PAGASA, the Philippines' meteorological agency. It broadcast warnings two days before Typhoon Haiyan hit, leading to the evacuation of approximately 750,000 residents.

The Philippines formally declared 'A State of National Calamity' and asked for international help, one day after Typhoon Haiyan hit the country.

The UK government provided food, shelter, clean water, medicine and other supplies for up to 800,000 victims.

Several charities provided emergency aid such as water, food and shelter. In the longer term, they are helping people get their livelihoods back, for example by repairing fishing boats or distributing rice seeds.

The United Nations launched an international aid appeal in December 2013 for £480 million to finance the humanitarian relief effort for 2014.

In 2014, the Philippines commissioned billboards in some of the world's prime advertising sites such as New York's Times Square and London's Piccadilly Circus to thank people for their help after Typhoon Haiyan.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Tropical cyclone case study - Typhoon Haiyan - Tropical cyclones - Edexcel - GCSE Geography Revision - Edexcel - BBC Bitesize

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Typhoon Haiyan was a tropical cyclone that affected the Philippines in South East Asia in November 2013. It was one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded with winds of 313 km/h. In some areas, 281.9 mm of rainfall was recorded, much of which fell in under 12 hours.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Architects and engineers can design buildings that will stand tall during even the most violent earthquakes. However, a tsunami (pronounced soo-NAH-mee), which is caused by an earthquake, has the power to wash away entire villages. Tragically, no building is tsunami-proof, but some buildings can be designed to resist forceful waves. The challenge of the architect is to design for the event AND design for beauty - the same challenge faced in safe room design.

Tsunamis are usually generated by powerful earthquakes underneath large bodies of water. The seismic event creates a wave that is more complex than when the wind simply blows the water's surface. The wave can travel hundreds of miles an hour until it reaches shallow water and a shoreline. The Japanese word for harbor is tsu and nami means wave. Because Japan is heavily populated, surrounded by water, and in an area of great seismic activity, tsunamis are often associated with this Asian country. They occur, however, all over the world. Historically tsunamis in the United States are most prevalent on the West coast, including California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and, of course, Hawaii.

A tsunami wave will behave differently depending on the underwater terrain surrounding the shoreline (i.e., how deep or shallow the water is from the shoreline). Sometimes the wave will be like a "tidal bore" or surge, and some tsunamis don't crash onto the shoreline at all like a more familiar, wind-driven wave. Instead, the water level may rise very, very quickly in what is called a "wave runup," as if the tide has come in all at once - like a 100 foot high tide surge. Tsunami flooding may travel inland more than 1000 feet, and the "rundown" creates continued damage as the water quickly retreats back out to sea.

Structures tend to be destroyed by tsunamis because of five general causes. First is the force of the water and high-velocity water flow. Stationary objects (like houses) in the path of the wave will resist the force, and, depending how the structure is constructed, the water will go through or around it.

Second, the tidal wave will be dirty, and the impact of debris carried by the forceful water may be what destroys a wall, roof, or piling. Third, this floating debris can be on fire, which is then spread among combustible materials.

Fourth, the tsunami rushing onto land and then retreating back to the sea creates unexpected erosion and scour of foundations. Whereas erosion is the general wearing away of the ground surface, scour is more localized - the type of wearing away you see around piers and piles as water flows around stationary objects. Both erosion and scour compromise a structure's foundation.

The fifth cause of damage is from the waves' wind forces.

In general, flood loads can be calculated like for any other building, but the scale of a tsunami's intensity make building more complicated. Tsunami flood velocities are said to be "highly complex and site-specific." Because of the unique nature of building a tsunami-resistant structure, FEMA has a special publication called Guidelines for Design of Structures for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunamis.

Early warning systems and horizontal evacuation have been the main strategy for many years. The current thinking, however, is to design buildings with vertical evacuation areas:

"...a building or earthen mound that has sufficient height to elevate evacuees above the level of tsunami inundation, and is designed and constructed with the strength and resiliency needed to resist the effects of tsunami waves...."

Individual homeowners as well as communities may take this approach. Vertical evacuation areas can be part of the design of a multi-story building, or it can be a more modest, stand-alone structure for a single purpose. Existing structures such as well-constructed parking garages could be designated vertical evacuation areas.

Shrewd engineering combined with a swift, efficient warning system can save thousands of lives. Engineers and other experts suggest these strategies for tsunami-resistant construction:

1. Build structures with reinforced concrete instead of wood, even though wood construction is more resilient to earthquakes. Reinforced concrete or steel-frame structures are recommended for vertical evacuation structures.

2. Mitigate resistance. Design structures to let the water flow through. Build multi-story structures, with the first floor being open (or on stilts) or breakaway so the major force of water can move through. Rising water will do less damage if it can flow underneath the structure. Architect Daniel A. Nelson and Designs Northwest Architects often use this approach in the residences they build on the Washington Coast. Again, this design is contrary to seismic practices, which makes this recommendation complicated and site specific.

3. Construct deep foundations, braced at the footings. A tsunami's force can turn an otherwise solid, concrete building completely on its side.

4. Design with redundancy, so that the structure can experience partial failure (e.g., a destroyed post) without progressive collapse.

1. As much as possible, leave vegetation and reefs intact. They won't stop tsunami waves, but they can slow them down.

2. Orient the building at an angle to the shoreline. Walls that directly face the ocean will suffer more damage.

3. Use continuous steel framing strong enough to resist hurricane-force winds.

4. Design structural connectors that can absorb stress.

FEMA estimates that "a tsunami-resistant structure, including seismic-resistant and progressive collapse-resistant design features, would experience about a 10 to 20% order-of-magnitude increase in total construction costs over that required for normal-use buildings."

This article briefly describes design tactics used for buildings in tsunami-prone coastlines. For details about these and other construction techniques, explore the primary sources.

United States Tsunami Warning System, NOAA / National weather Service, http://www.tsunami.gov/

Erosion, Scour, and Foundation Design, FEMA, January 2009, PDF at https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1644-20490-8177/757_apd_5_erosionscour.pdf

Coastal Construction Manual, Volume II FEMA, 4th edition, August 2011, pp. 8-15, 8-47, PDF at https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1510-20490-1986/fema55_volii_combined_rev.pdf

Guidelines for Design of Structures for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunami, 2nd edition, FEMA P646, April 1, 2012, pp. 1, 16, 35, 55, 111, PDF at https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1426211456953-f02dffee4679d659f62f414639afa806/FEMAP-646_508.pdf

Tsunami-Proof Building by Danbee Kim, http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2009/teams/2/danbee.htm, 2009 [accessed August 13, 2016]

The Tech To Make Buildings Earthquake - and Tsunami - Resistant by Andrew Moseman, Popular Mechanics, March 11, 2011

How to Make Buildings Safer in Tsunamis by Rollo Reid, Reid Steel

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Can a building survive the force of a Tsunami?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Architects and engineers can design buildings that will stand tall during even the most violent earthquakes. However, a tsunami (pronounced soo-NAH-mee), which is caused by an earthquake, has the power to wash away entire villages. Tragically, no building is tsunami-proof, but some buildings can be designed to resist forceful waves.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Whenever a major earthquake is in the news, you'll probably hear about its Richter scale rating. You might also hear about its Mercalli Scale rating, though this isn't discussed as often. These two ratings describe the power of the earthquake from two different perspectives.

The most common standard of measurement for an earthquake is the Richter scale, developed in 1935 by Charles F. Richter of the California Institute of Technology. The Richter scale is used to rate the magnitude of an earthquake -- the amount of energy it released. This is calculated using information gathered by a seismograph.

The Richter scale is logarithmic, meaning that whole-number jumps indicate a tenfold increase. In this case, the increase is in wave amplitude. That is, the wave amplitude in a level 6 earthquake is 10 times greater than in a level 5 earthquake, and the amplitude increases 100 times between a level 7 earthquake and a level 9 earthquake. The amount of energy released increases 31.7 times between whole number values.

As we previously noted, most earthquakes are extremely small. A majority of quakes register less than 3 on the Richter scale; these tremors, called microquakes, aren't even felt by humans. Only a tiny portion -- 15 or so of the 1.4 million quakes that register above 2.0 -- register at 7 or above, which the threshold for a quake being considered major [source: USGS]. The biggest quake in recorded history was the 9.5 quake that struck Chile in 1960. It killed nearly 1,900 people and caused about $4 billion in damage in 2010 dollars [source: USGS]. Generally, you won't see much damage from earthquakes that register below 4 on the Richter scale.

Richter ratings only give you a rough idea of the actual impact of an earthquake, though. As we've seen, an earthquake's destructive power varies depending on the composition of the ground in an area and the design and placement of man-made structures. The extent of damage is rated on the Mercalli scale. Mercalli ratings, which are given as Roman numerals, are based on largely subjective interpretations. A low intensity earthquake, one in which only some people feel the vibration and there is no significant property damage, is rated as a II. The highest rating, a XII, is applied to earthquakes in which structures are destroyed, the ground is cracked and other natural disasters, such as landslides or tsunamis, are initiated.

Richter scale ratings are determined soon after an earthquake, once scientists can compare the data from different seismograph stations. Mercalli ratings, on the other hand, can't be determined until investigators have had time to talk to many eyewitnesses to find out what occurred during the earthquake. Once they have a good idea of the range of damage, they use the Mercalli criteria to decide on an appropriate rating.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Whenever a major earthquake is in the news, you'll probably hear about its Richter scale rating. You might also hear about its Mercalli Scale rating, though this isn't discussed as often. These two ratings describe the power of the earthquake from two different perspectives.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Cookies Policy

We and our partners use cookies to better understand your needs, improve performance and provide you with personalised content and advertisements. To allow us to provide a better and more tailored experience please click "OK"

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
We and our partners use cookies to better understand your needs, improve performance and provide you with personalised content and advertisements. To allow us to provide a better and more tailored experience please click "OK"

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Climate change is set to cause major changes across the world: sea levels will rise, food production could fall and species may be driven to extinction.

The UN has warned that the world needs to limit climate change to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But scientists say that keeping to the 1.5C target will require "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes" in all aspects of society.

So how warm has the world got and what can we do about it?

The global average temperature for the first 10 months of 2018 was 0.98C above the levels of 1850-1900, according to five independently maintained global data sets.

(If you can't see this chart tap or click here)

The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with 2015-2018 making up the top four, the WMO says.

If this trend continues, temperatures may rise by 3-5C by 2100.

One degree may not sound like much, but, according to the IPCC, if countries fail to act, the world will face catastrophic change - sea levels will rise, ocean temperatures and acidity will increase and our ability to grow crops, such as rice, maize and wheat, would be in danger.

Almost 400 all-time high temperatures were set in the northern hemisphere during the summer of 2019.

Records were broken in 29 countries for the period between 1 May and 30 August. A third of the all-time high temperatures were in Germany, followed by France and the Netherlands.

These European records were set amid heatwaves across the continent that sent temperatures soaring in June and July.

Over the period shown on the map below (May to August 2019), the yellow dots show where a heat record was broken on a given date, pink indicates places that were the hottest they had ever been in the month shown, and dark red represents a place that was the hottest since records began.

More than 30 all-time records were broken in the US, according to the Berkeley Earth data. In Japan, where 11 people died as a result of the summer heatwave, 10 all-time temperature highs were set.

If we add up all the promises to cut emissions made by countries that are party to the Paris climate agreement, the world would still warm by more than 3C by the end of this century.

Over the past few years, climate scientists have shifted the definition of what they believe is the "safe" limit of climate change.

For decades, researchers argued the global temperature rise must be kept below 2C by the end of this century to avoid the worst impacts.

Countries signing up to the Paris agreement pledged to keep temperatures "well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C".

But scientists now agree that we actually need to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C.

The countries emitting the most greenhouse gases by quite a long way are China and the US. Together they account for more than 40% of the global total, according to 2017 data from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

US environmental policy has shifted under the Trump administration, which has pursued a pro-fossil fuels agenda.

President Donald Trump has begun the process of withdrawing the US from the Paris climate change agreement.

Mr Trump said the deal struck in 2015 would disadvantage US businesses and workers.

And it's the faster-growing cities that are most at risk, including megacities like Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Some 84 of the world's 100 fastest-growing cities face "extreme" risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change.

The extent of Arctic sea ice has dropped in recent years. It reached its lowest point on record in 2012.

The Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in the summer as soon as the 2050s, unless emissions are reduced, the committee has said.

The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2019 was tied with 2007 and 2016 as the second lowest on record. The maximum extent, reached in March 2019, was tied with 2007 as the seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record.

While governments need to make big changes - individuals can play a role too.

Scientists say we all have to make major changes to our lifestyles, in order to avoid severely damaging climate change.

The IPCC says we need to: buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter; eat more locally sourced seasonal food - and throw less of it away; drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances; take trains and buses instead of planes; use videoconferencing instead of business travel; use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer; insulate homes; demand low carbon in every consumer product.

Scientists say we ought to eat less meat because of the carbon emissions the meat industry produces, as well as other negative environmental impacts.

For example, beef cattle raised on deforested land produces 12 times more greenhouse gas emissions than those reared on natural pastures.

Crucially, the analysis shows that meat with the lowest environmental impact still creates more greenhouse gas emissions than growing vegetables and cereal crops in the least environmentally-friendly way.

By Nassos Stylianou, Clara Guibourg, Daniel Dunford, Lucy Rodgers, David Brown and Paul Rincon

Correction 24 February 2020: A previous version of this story said that "the single biggest way to reduce your environmental impact on the planet is to modify your diet to include less meat". This has been amended to now refer to "one of the biggest," taking account of different individual lifestyles and circumstances. We have also replaced the in-line link with a research article on 'The global impacts of food production'.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
We look at how hot the world has got and what can we can all do to tackle global warming.

# data[].attributes.headline
How climate change is increasing the number of hurricanes in the USA...

# data[].attributes.subject
How climate change is increasing the number of hurricanes in the USA...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be 'below normal' but long-term trends paint a worrying picture