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Growth was starting to fall in May with a reading of 0.0 per cent but beat market expectations and Statistics Canada’s earlier flash estimate for May of a month-over-month drop of 0.2 per cent. Looking forward, our national data estimates that the economy grew 0.1 per cent in June, leaving the quarterly annualized GDP on track for a 4.6 per cent reading in the second quarter.

I chose this video because it shows a clear picture of the rise and fall of the GDP that we are experiencing at this time. It has accurate easy to follow information for the general public to follow along.

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Our Canadian eonomy has expanded by 0.7% in the third quarter based on this article. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of growth by 0.8 since the second quarter. Exports increased 2.1%, led by crude oil and bitumen, and farm and fishing products. Imports fell 0.4%, reflecting widespread declines in energy products, including crude oil, natural gas, and nuclear fuel. It also states that the housing investments showed a decline by 4.1% and was the second consecutive fall for 2021.

I chose this video because it shows the fluctuation that we are experiencing during this time. It shows that many areas of our economy are experiencing uncertainty and gives a good snap shot of what is doing well and what isn’t.

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This video tries to explain in easier terms how we can grow while experiencing high inflation cost and trying to bring the cost down. While productivity may be increasing so is the cost and many are starting to feel the pinch. It is predicted that Canada is going to see some exponential growth and we will see a fall in the cost for it.

I chose this video because it explains what is happening right now with inflation and the cost of spending that many Canadians may be struggling with. It is giving us a prediction on what we may expect for the years to come.

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This video explained what drove the increase in the GDP and what is happening in the forecast of finance. Household spending has increased for the third consecutive quarter. Consumer spending isn’t a surprise, because the labour market is red hot and households have lots of pent-up demand after two years of living in various states of pandemic lockdown.

I chose this video because it has information on what drove the increase, what does this mean for inflation with the increase of GDP, and what’s the bottom line with talk of a recession due to rising interest rates and the war in the Ukraine combined creates a massive downturn.  It also talks about Canadians saving for the uncertain future with is a crucial part to retirement.

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This graph is showing the intended growth in both Canada and the United States for the 2022-2023 fiscal year and the changes quarter over quarter percent change for the season.

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It is expected to see good spending towards our durable goods for quarter three. A huge mark is left for as the higher interest rates to decrease activity spending. It has already rose from 4.9% to 5.4% and is expected to reach 6.5% in 2024. The global economy is slowing and there is no single factor behind the lethargy.

I chose this website because it shows a good snapshot at the prediction of which way the global economy is going with great information that the increase of inflation that is happening around the country.  This helps Canada determine what is going to happen here at home.

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This edition of the Quarterly Economic Forecast is in a Q&A format to address top issues related to the economic backdrop. It starts with the international and policy context (Questions 1 to 5). It then narrows the field to the U.S. and Canada (Questions 6 to 10).

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Picture 1: Growth for 2022/2021 in Canada 

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Picture 1: Growth for 2022/2021 in Canada 

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Housing investments have declined and this is a second consecutive fall this year, reasons are because of the high interest rates. Household spending edged down, the first decline since quarter 2 in 2021.

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Article #2: Canada's Economic Contribution

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Article #2: Canada's Economic Contribution

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Canada's economic contribution is through our oil and natural gas. It has provided 105 billion to Canada's GDP and has provided over 400,000 thousand jobs across the country for 2018, 2019 and 2020. This provides revenue to contribute in building hospitals, roads, schools, and much more.

I chose this article because it is a major contributor to our economy and shows that it provides Canadians with jobs and contributes to government funded organizations. It also gives an overview of the goods and services that Canada provides to the global economy.

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As the fifth-largest producer of natural gas and the sixth-largest producer of oil in the world, Canada has the opportunity to provide responsibly produced oil and natural gas to meet demand while driving job creation and economic growth here at home.

Canadian oil and natural gas provided $108 billion to Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, supported almost 530,000 jobs across the country in 2017 and provided $8 billion in average annual revenue to governments for the period 2016 to 2018. This revenue helps pay for roads, school and hospitals.
How Oil and Natural Gas Contribute to Canada's Economy
Oil Sands and Canada's Economy

Over the next 10 years, the oil sands industry is expected to pay an estimated $17 billion in provincial and federal taxes - including royalties* (Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects, 2019 - 2029, CERI)

In addition to paying significant royalties and taxes, the oil sands industry is a major employer. In 2017, the oil sands supported and created more than 205,000 direct and indirect jobs across Canada.

Almost every region in Canada has benefitted from oil sands development through job creation and economic activity.

Oil Sands Supply Chain

A strong oil sands sector drives a strong national economy by attracting capital, creating jobs and supporting public services. Canada's oil sands create prosperity across the entire country - not just in Alberta. Local companies in every province supply goods and services to the oil sands-creating jobs, growth and economic opportunity in local communities.

The oil sands supply chain data highlights examples of the commerce and trade relationships between oil sands producers and business suppliers across Canada. Supplier counts are down in every province as compared to the previous data from the period 2014 / 2015. In addition, the supply chain spend is down dramatically across the country. This is consistent with the investment and spending declines experienced in the oil sands and energy sector since 2014.

CAPP has been conducting a bi-annual survey of oil sands and service companies across Canada since 2012 to determine the value of the oil sands supply chain. The data is not a complete and exhaustive list of suppliers in a particular region, but serves to highlight existing examples of the commerce and trade relationships between oil sands producers and companies across Canada.

Natural Gas and Canada's Economy

The upstream natural gas industry contributes to Canada's overall economic health through jobs, and taxes and royalties paid to provincial and federal governments. For the period 2017 to 2027, total Canadian GDP impact from the natural gas industry is estimated to be $422.5 billion.

The industry contributes to Canada's overall economic health through jobs and taxes and royalties paid to the provincial and federal governments. This revenue can be used to help pay for health care, education, infrastructure and other social programs. The following benefits will be realized if we are able to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry to ship Canadian natural gas to Asian markets:

Key Facts:

It is forecast that the natural gas industry will generate $300 billion in economic impact over the next 10 years.

Employment (direct and indirect) from natural gas activity estimated to be approximately 75,000 per year over the next 10 years.

Taxes paid to the federal and provincial governments from the upstream natural gas industry will total $45.6 billion over the next 10 years. (Source: CERI)

The Future of Natural Gas

While the natural gas market has been challenged by a number of factors including the increase in U.S. production and the 2009 global recession, Canada's natural gas industry does have a bright future if we are able to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry to ship Canadian natural gas to Asian markets. Based on a 2018 CAPP data the economic impacts of supporting a Canadian LNG industry are significant and estimates include:

Generation of $2.4 billion towards Canada's GDP in direct or indirect activity

Employment growth on a national level increases by 10,000 direct or indirect jobs

Annual government revenues (corporate, personal, indirect taxes and royalties) for the provincial and federal governments

LNG Exports from Canada Could Provide Annual Benefits
Atlantic Canada's Offshore and the Economy

Atlantic Canada's offshore oil and gas industry also provides many benefits to the country's economy:

It employs approximately 5,500 people directly, and and thousands more indirectly.

It supports more than 600 supply/service companies.

The cumulative expenditures by the producing sector in Atlantic Canada from 1997 to 2017 total more than $66.8 billion.

The cumulative royalties paid to the Governments of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador from 1997 to 2017 total more than $23.3 billion.

More than $506 million has been spent on research and development, and education and training.

Learn More About Atlantic Canada Economic Benefits

Royalties

Most of the natural resources in Alberta, B.C. and Saskatchewan belong to the provinces (Crown). In exchange for the right to develop these resources, companies pay the government a royalty. This is a percentage of revenues generated from the sale of oil and natural gas products, or in some cases takes the product in-kind for the government to sell.

Royalties are just one way oil and natural gas producers contribute to government revenues. Many different government taxation policies affect exploration and development of Canada's natural resources.

Subsidies

In CAPP's view, government support of a particular industry or company via direct spending or credit should be deemed a subsidy. However, measures of the federal tax framework that enable economic activity and maintain effective neutrality of the tax system are not subsidies.

In Canada, all businesses can deduct certain expenses, and the oil and natural gas sector is no different. Tax measures used by the oil and natural gas sector are not subsidies. The government establishes tax measures to ensure the neutrality of the tax system between industries that differ in their capital intensity, revenue generation and production life cycles, to remove tax bias.

Learn More About Subsidies

Canada is Falling Behind

Competition for capital investment in the global market is fierce and if Canada wants its industry to be a major player internationally, a number of factors need to be considered. Rising government costs, the burden of inefficient regulations, and the lack of infrastructure to move Canadian energy to growing markets are all undermining investor confidence in Canada and negatively affecting the country's ability to attract the capital needed to create jobs and national prosperity.

Total capital spending is estimated to be $34 billion in 2019 - a 57% decrease compared to $81 billion in 2014. Meanwhile, capital spending in the United States increased by about 38 per cent to $120 billion thanks to a more streamlined regulatory system.

Capital Investment in Canada's Oil and Natural Gas Industry

Statistics Canada and CAPP, 2019

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Canada's Economic Contribution | Canada Natural Resources & GDP

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As the fifth-largest producer of natural gas and the sixth-largest producer of oil in the world, Canada has the opportunity to provide responsibly produced oil and natural gas to meet demand while driving job creation and economic growth here at home.

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Article #4: Economic and Social Reports for 2022

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Article #4: Economic and Social Reports for 2022

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Our employment growth has slowed during the second quarter months. Putting a rise on  input costs and labour shortages continued to outlook as businesses and households adjust to higher borrowing costs. Consumer inflation reached a forty year high in June as inflationary pressures remained widespread. Household wealth posted a record decline in the second quarter as wealth inequality rose for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

I chose this website because it is directly from our government website and shows accurate numbers of growth and fall within our economy.  It gives an informative overview of what we are experiencing nationally.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202201000001-eng

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This article provides an integrated summary of recent changes in output, consumer prices, employment and household finances. It highlights changes in the economic data during the first half of 2022 and into the summer months. The article also examines how economic conditions have changed as borrowing costs have risen.

The report is based on data that are publicly available as of October 3, 2022. Monthly information on government, business and financial market developments, including public health measures related to the pandemic, is available at Canadian Economic News (Statistics Canada n.d.). Monthly commentary on economic developments related to COVID-19 can be found at Canadian Economic Dashboard and COVID-19 (Statistics Canada n.d.).

Overview

Economic activity rose during the first two quarters of 2022 as consumer spending and business stockpiling contributed to growth. Export volumes rebounded in the second quarter as import volumes rose at their fastest pace since early in the pandemic. Investment in housing contracted sharply in the second quarter, while business outlays on structures and machinery and equipment continued to advance. Labour productivity remained below pre-pandemic levels while improvements in the terms of trade bolstered real income growth

Output and employment growth slowed during the spring months. Rising input costs and labour shortages continued to cloud the outlook as businesses and households adjust to higher borrowing costs. Headline consumer inflation reached a forty year high in June as inflationary pressures remained widespread. Household wealth posted a record decline in the second quarter as wealth inequality rose for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Authors

Guy Gellatly and Carter McCormack work with the Strategic Analysis, Publications and Training division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, Statistics Canada

Household spending and business stockpiling support economic growth

Real gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the second quarter, matching the gain in the first. Economic activity has expanded for four consecutive quarters, increasing by 4.6% over this period. Overall activity in the second quarter was 1.7% above pre-pandemic levels in late 2019.

Household spending and inventory accumulation supported economic growth during the first half of 2022 (Chart 1). After a modest increase in the first quarter, household outlays rose 2.3% in the second, led by higher spending on services and semi-durables, including clothing and footwear. Outlays on durables fell as price increases for big ticket items weighed on household purchases. Total household spending in the second quarter was 3.2% above pre-pandemic levels.

Business stockpiles rose sharply in the first half of 2022. Inventory accumulation contributed markedly to growth in the second quarter, supported by increases in machinery and building supplies and fertilizers. Farm inventories, bolstered by higher production of wheat and canola, posted their largest quarterly increase in over sixty years.

Non-residential business investment continues to recover during the first half of year (Chart 2). Combined business outlays on structures and machinery and equipment (M&E) have risen for five consecutive quarters as volumes approached pre-pandemic levels. Outlays on non-residential structures, buoyed by higher spending on energy projects, rose 2.7%, but remained about 4% below levels observed in late 2019. Investment in M&E, led by higher spending on transportation equipment, rose 4.5%, and was nearly 5% above its pre-pandemic baseline. Spending on intellectual property products increased after three consecutive quarterly declines.

After advancing in the first quarter, residential investment detracted from growth in the second as the housing market adjusted to rising borrowing costs. Investment in housing fell 7.8% as lower resale activity led to a 24.7% decrease in ownership transfer costs. Renovation activity also pulled back, while new homebuilding increased for the first time in four quarters. Despite the pullback, total residential investment remained 7% above pre-COVID levels.

Productivity below pre-pandemic levels as trading gains bolster real income growth

Improvements in Canada's terms of trade bolstered real income growth during the first half of 2022. Real gross domestic income, a measure of the purchasing power of domestic production which incorporates relative changes in export and import prices, grew by 2.2% in the first quarter and 2.5% in the second (roughly three times the cumulative pace of real GDP growth during the first two quarters). About two thirds of this real income growth reflected improvements in the terms of trade.

Slower growth in economy-wide output as borrowing costs rise

Real estate agents and brokers posted five consecutive declines from March to July as homebuyers adjusted to higher borrowing costs. After peaking at nearly 50% above pre-pandemic levels in March 2021, activity at agents and brokers in July was 11% below its pre-COVID baseline, the lowest level since activity began to recover from the initial lockdowns. Legal services, which are strongly impacted by housing market activity, also fell steadily from March to July.

Construction posted four consecutive declines from April to July, but remained slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Residential, non-residential and repair construction all edged down in the spring months.

Businesses anticipate continued challenges related to inflation and supply chains

Data for the third quarter from the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions continue to underscore the cost pressures and logistical challenges facing many companies. Three in five businesses expect rising inflation to be an obstacle over the next three months, while almost half expect challenges related to higher input costs. About one-third of businesses expect to raise prices over the coming months.

Supply chain disruptions continue to be widely anticipated. Over one-quarter of businesses expect challenges acquiring inputs, products or supplies domestically over the next three months, with over half of these businesses anticipating that supply challenges will continue for six months or more.

Inflationary pressures remain widespread as gas prices ease

Headline consumer inflation eased during the summer months on lower gasoline prices. August marked the seventeenth consecutive month that the headline rate (+7.0%) has been above three percent, and the sixth consecutive month above six percent.

Food prices continued to edge higher during July and August (Chart 5). Grocery prices, measured year-over-year, were up 10.8% in August, the largest yearly increase since 1981. Annual price increases for meat edged up to 6.5%, while yearly increases for fresh fruit remained at or above the 10 percent mark for the fifth consecutive month. Prices for pasta products were up 20.7% in the twelve months to August. Annual price increases at restaurants topped the seven percent mark for the third consecutive month.

While inflationary pressures have been broad-based, their impacts have been felt most deeply in higher prices for products that directly impact living costs. Over four in ten Canadians in April reported that they were most affected by rising food prices, while one in three indicated that they were most affected by higher transportation costs (Chart 6).

Data table for Chart 6
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Percentage of Canadians affected by rising prices (April 2022)

Price change, year-over-year (August 2022)

Slower employment growth as the demand for workers remains elevated

Employment growth slowed following large Omicron-related movements in early 2022. Headline employment rose by nearly 340,000 in February, more than offsetting losses under tighter health restrictions at the start the year. Employment then edged higher in the three months to May, before pulling back during the late spring and summer months. Total employment in August was little changed from levels reported in February, with net gains in full-time work offsetting declines in part-time.

Despite the recent slowdown, labour market conditions remained exceptionally tight during the spring and summer months. More Canadians in their prime working years are currently working now than before the pandemic. The employment rate among 25 to 54 year-olds edged down from a record 84.7% in June to 84.1% in August, but remained 0.9 percentage points above its pre-pandemic benchmark. The national unemployment rate fell to a record low of 4.9% in June and July, while the rate among core-age workers has remained below the five percent mark since February. During this period, unemployment rates among youth and older workers have also generally remained below pre-pandemic benchmarks.

Many employers continue to navigate labour shortages as the job vacancy rate rose to a record-high 5.7% in the second quarter. Nearly four in ten businesses reported that labour-related obstacles would limit growth, with a similar percentage anticipating that they would hire less suitable candidates. The ratio of unemployed persons to job vacancies edged down to a record low of 1.0 in June. Businesses also report challenges retaining workers. In August, the proportion of permanent employees who were planning to leave their job within the next 12 months was 11.9%, almost double the level recorded at the start of the year (6.4%).

Changes in the industrial composition of employment growth, many of which reflect developments early in the pandemic, continue to persist (Chart 8). Net employment gains among public sector employees over the last three years reflect large cumulative increases in health care and social assistance, public administration, and educational services. Among private sector employees, large increases in professional, scientific and technical services, and in finance and real estate industries, have been partly offset by declines in accommodation and food services. Self-employment continues to lag pre-pandemic levels, reflecting broad-based losses across industries. On the whole, net employment gains since the onset of the pandemic has been concentrated entirely in occupations that typically require university education.

Household wealth falls by nearly one trillion

While household incomes continued to expand in the second quarter, balance sheets contracted sharply as asset markets plunged into correction territory. Household wealth contracted by 6.1% but remained 23.9% higher than before the pandemic.

After expanding by 5.0% in the first quarter, household disposable income edged up 1.0% in the second as higher wages and salaries offset lower government transfers. Stronger spending pushed the savings rate down to 6.2%. Household income and saving in the quarter remained well above pre-pandemic levels. Disposable income was 16% above levels reported in late 2019, while the savings rate was over twice its pre-COVID baseline.

Household net worth-the value of all household assets minus liabilities-fell by $990 billion in in the second quarter, the largest quarterly decline on record. Household financial assets were hit by weaker equity markets, while the value of residential properties fell sharply as borrowing costs rose. Households took on more debt as both mortgage and non-mortgage borrowing increased, the former advancing at a near record pace.

Household wealth inequality increased in the second quarter for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. The net worth of households in the bottom 40 percent of the wealth distribution fell by 12.0% (representing an average decrease of $8,828), more than twice the rate of decline of 5.9% among households in the top wealth quintile (an average decrease of $199,118). While wealth fell across all age groups, younger households were most impacted. The average net worth of households in the youngest age group (less than 35 years) fell by 8.2%, reflecting the sharp decline in real estate values.

References

Statistics Canada. n.d. Canadian Economic News. Last updated March 10, 2022. Available at: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/dai/btd/cen/index#census (accessed October 5th, 2022).

Statistics Canada. n.d. Canadian Economic Dashboard and COVID-19. Last updated October 12, 2022. Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020009-eng.htm?HPA=1 (accessed October 12, 2022).

Statistics Canada. 2022. Disaggregating wage growth: Trends and considerations. Catalogue 11-631-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Released August 8, 2022.

Statistics Canada. 2022. Investment, Productivity and Living Standards. Catalogue 11-631-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Released September 1, 2022.

Research to Insights: Investment, Productivity and Living Standards.

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Recent developments in the Canadian economy: Fall 2022

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This article provides an integrated summary of recent changes in output, consumer prices, employment and household finances. It highlights changes in the economic data during the first half of 2022 and into the summer months. The article also examines how economic conditions have changed as borrowing costs have risen.

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1.  What did you learn about your topic that surprised you the most?

I learned so much about my topic on economic growth and GDP. It to me makes more sense on what is happening around the country and globally and how it impacts us as individuals. GDP is important because it gives information about the size of the economy and how our economy is preforming. The growth rate of the GPD is used for the general health of the economy.

2. Provide a real-life example of how this topic is relevant or interesting
for you.

An example for how this topic is relevant to me is because I am a consumer want to know where my money is going and what is happening around me in the finance world. I don’t have a direct example because my finances are private.

3. If you could pass on your knowledge to a family member or friend, what
do you think is the most important thing to pass on.

What I have taken away from all of this and would pass on to my family is that saving for the future is so important, how rising interest rates affect us as homeowners and to always do our research before ever signing financial paperwork or working with a financial advisor that can be trusted to provide accurate information.

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Strength in Canada’s resources sectors has helped offset slower growth in services. Job vacancies and employment remain near highs seen earlier in the year, job growth has slowed relative to population increases. Canada has also welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian refugees; over 375 000 applications have been approved, equivalent to 1% of Canada’s population. The latest Bank of Canada Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that tighter credit conditions and a weaker economic outlook are weighing on consumer sentiment.

I chose this website because it is provided with great information of what has happened over the last 3 years. It also states short term and long term goals that are to help tame the high inflation that we are experiencing at the moment.