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Politics Election forecast

 Harkanwal Singh Harkanwal Singh Wil Undy
Thu 14/09/2017
Who is tipped to win the party and candidate vote in your electorate?

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ELECTIONS
 
POLITICS
 
Last updated: 14/09/2017
 Harkanwal Singh
Harkanwal Singh
Data Editor
Wil Undy
Researcher
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The predictive model is the first of its kind from a New Zealand news organisation. It allows Herald readers to cut through the noise of individual polls and see a much clearer estimate of what is likely to happen on September 23.

The model uses data from every major poll conducted in the past year and the results of every election since 1999.

It runs 10,000 simulations to forecast this year's results. The simulations create a range for each possible outcome. The more times the simulations lead to the same outcome, the more likely that outcome is.

The model is currently predicting the party vote at national and electoral levels. Once the electorate candidate lists are confirmed it will also predict the electorate results.


How is the model built?

The results of each poll are adjusted according to previous biases towards parties. They are then weighted based upon the age of the poll.

An adjustment is made for the amount by which a poll was off in predicting the result. The party vote at electorate level is estimated by combining the adjusted poll results with the national trends.

The model was commissioned by the Herald and built by University of Auckland student Wil Undy.

How accurate is the model?

It allows for more context than individual polls, which might make for an 'explosive' headline on release but can take less account of the uncertainty inherent in predictions.

According to Professor Thomas Lumley from the Department of Statistics at the University of Auckland, there are two advantages of a model-based summary of polls, such as this.

"First, you can use more information than a single poll, which should lead to more accurate estimates that don't bounce around so much every time a new poll comes out.

"Second, and maybe more importantly, you can get better uncertainty estimates. The standard uncertainty estimates on a single poll, even though they seem very wide, are optimistic.

"Modelling doesn't guarantee good estimates: in last year's US election, many groups still seriously underestimated the uncertainty in their predictions. But modelling allows uncertainty to be taken seriously."

Will the model be updated?

The model will be updated after every public poll and the latest predictions will be available within four hours of polls being released.

Predictions for the electorate battles will be added once final candidate lists are available.

What are the limitations of the model?

It is hard to predict party vote for a newcomer like The Opportunities Party. Because it's new there is not enough polling data for the model. However, raw polling data is included in our visualisation instead.

Another limitation, according to Professor Lumley, is the lack of demographic information accompanying publicly available polling data.

"Knowing about party preferences by, say, gender, age, ethnicity and income lets you use Census data about each electorate to get even more accurate results, and with less concern about how representative the sample is."

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princes dad

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This is the New Zealand

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10. Protecting our precious environment

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9. Cannabis law reform

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are planning on inviting more refugees

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8. Welcoming more refugees

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7. Te Reo Maori in Schools

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6. 100% Renewable Energy - Empowering NZ - cheaper, cleaner, smarter

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5. Our Climate Plan #worthsaving - Green Party have a climate plan that NZ can be proud of

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4. Protecting Drinking Water

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3. Green Infrastructure Fund - Kick start the green economy and create good jobs

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2. Mending The Safety Net - No one in NZ should live in poverty

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This funding includes $1.8b to deliver more teachers, better professional development, more learning resources, and help the sector meet the rising costs they face each year.

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Make multinationals pay their fair share

Labour will:

Collect an extra $200m per year from multinationals currently avoiding their New Zealand tax obligations by resourcing IRD with an additional $30m per year to crack down on multinational tax avoidance.

If multinationals aren’t prepared to pay their fair share, Labour will introduce a diverted profits tax, to enable New Zealand tax authorities to impose tax at a penalty rate if they believe that tax has been deliberately avoided.

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1. Thriving Nature - double the number of rangers working on the front line to defend nature and double the amount of pest control on conservation land

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Invest an extra $6b over four years to deliver a modern education system

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the green party is planning to reduce climate change stabilizing the climate to protect the fragile Eco-systems that our native birds depend on and regenerating native forests to help cool the planet.

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https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/election

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Give unemployed young people a job for six months doing work of public value, so they can gain work experience and avoid long-term unemployment.

http://www.labour.org.nz/jobs

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Is promising to build more affordable homes

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- Ban foreign speculators from buying existing homes.

- Take serious action to end homelessness.

- Building 50,000 affordable homes in Auckland.
http://www.labour.org.nz/housing

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going to end poverty for thriving families who are on low income

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Sep 14, 2017
National | 43.3%
Labour | 38.1%
NZ First | 7.8%
Green | 7%

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Labour will extend the bright line test from the current two years to five years. This will target speculators who buy houses with the aim of making a quick capital gain. Current exemptions from the bright line test will continue.
labour - 43.1
national - 40.4
nzf     -  7.58
the green - 5.23

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Transport: build a light rail from the CBD to the auckland airport.

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https://www.greens.org.nz/
100% renewable energy
selling off Landcorp farms as a backward step for NZ farming

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allowing New Zealanders aged 18 to 23 to trade in their 3-years-free and apply for up to $20,000 to start a new business based on an innovative idea.
http://www.labour.org.nz/education

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end poverty

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this is the maori policies
http://www.maoriparty.org/policies

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New Zealand Labour Party:
*Going to fix the houses crisis
*The funding will include 1.8b dollars deliver more teachers
*Clean water, and clean beach
*Easy access to transport
*first 3 years of uni free.

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Clean Water
Climate Change
End Poverty

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http://www.labour.org.nz/policy
-  Invest an extra $6b over four years to deliver a modern education system
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