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Thanks for the articles and analysis.
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SINGAPORE'S recently loosened monetary policy, and its fiscal policy, taken together, are "appropriate given current economic conditions", the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reiterated - giving a more short-term opinion than was stated earlier in the year.

The government's fiscal stance for 2019 is still expected to be "mildly expansionary", according to the MAS half-yearly macroeconomic review, released on Wednesday. But, while the Singapore Budget tends to be mildly stimulatory, the size of the expected boost has eased.

"This macroeconomic policy mix is assessed to be appropriate given current economic conditions," the central bank said in its latest biannual report, while re-affirming that, "should the outlook for inflation and growth weaken significantly, MAS is prepared to recalibrate monetary policy".

By stressing ongoing conditions, the MAS tacitly gazes closer into the crystal ball than it did in April, when policies were tipped to ensure "price stability and sustainable growth in the medium term".

The fresh, nearer-term assessment comes just weeks after the MAS pulled back on the pace of appreciation of the Singapore dollar in its first monetary loosening in three years.

Singapore's fiscal impulse, which measures how government spending affects the economy in the short term,( see amendment note) has been pegged at about 0.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the year.

That figure still "implies a slightly more expansionary fiscal policy stance" than in 2018, but is lower than the estimate of 0.7 per cent in the April macroeconomic review.

That's even as, over the same period, the forecast for full-year GDP growth has been slashed to zero to 1 per cent - down from the range from 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent projected in April.

This year's expansionary fiscal impulse - which means that the government has taken out less revenue than it is spending, against the year before - follows initiatives from a "longer‐term sustainable growth" Budget that the MAS noted were meant to raise productivity and tackle social inequality.

Since then, though, the output gap "has turned slightly negative", as the MAS noted in its monetary policy statement earlier in October.

The output gap, which is expressed as a share of GDP, refers to the difference between the actual GDP and the level of economic activity that can be supported without leading to unhealthy inflation pressure.

In other words, the negative output gap points to an economy that is performing below its full potential. And the central bank expects the negative output gap to persist - weakening from a projected -0.46 per cent of potential GDP in 2019 to -0.66 per cent in 2020.

"While a slowdown in Singapore's trade‐related sectors was anticipated, the extent of the downshift in activity in the last six months turned out to be more severe than previously envisaged," the MAS noted in its October macroeconomic review report.

By and large, private-sector economy watchers have been keeping an eye on what support the upcoming Budget 2020 package could offer the ailing economy.

DBS senior economist Irvin Seah wrote in August, when the full-year outlook was officially downgraded: "The government can afford to keep its powder dry and be more calibrated on the policy front at the moment. The key is to be prepared should the situation deteriorates sharply."

Such a view was further cemented by MAS managing director Ravi Menon's remarks to Bloomberg last week that "it can't be that every slowdown, every risk or threat on the horizon has to be addressed by a loosening of monetary policy", as fiscal measures also have a role.

Indeed, according to historical data, the small estimated fiscal impulse for 2019 is a fraction of the last peak, clocked during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, when the government pushed through a S$20.5 billion Resilience Package to jumpstart the economy.

Separately, besides monetary easing, some countries are already turning to fiscal stimulus to prop up growth, amid fears of a wider contagion from trade and manufacturing weakness, the MAS also noted.

Such fiscal measures include plans for climate change‐related spending in Germany, infrastructure investment in the Netherlands, a rebate on electronic goods in Japan, corporate tax cuts in India, and tax incentives for businesses and households in China.

Despite the turn to expansionary macroeconomic policy in economies elsewhere, the MAS has warned that "constraints such as policy space, debt sustainability and financial stability concerns could cap the stimulus to these economies".

Still, key differences between Singapore and other economies involve the central bank's use of the Singdollar exchange rate, rather than interest rates, in monetary policy, as well as its fiscal headroom in terms of its low debt constraints, ample reserves, and surpluses from previous national Budgets.

Amendment note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly described the term "fiscal impulse". It has been amended with the correct definition.

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Singapore monetary, fiscal policy 'appropriate' for now: MAS

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SINGAPORE'S recently loosened monetary policy, and its fiscal policy, taken together, are "appropriate given current economic conditions", the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reiterated - giving a more short-term opinion than was stated earlier in the year. The government's fiscal stance for 2019 is still expected to be "mildly expansionary", according to the MAS half-yearly macroeconomic review, released on Wednesday.

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Unemployment rises to highest level in a decade in Q3 2019, but employment growth also up

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SINGAPORE - Overall unemployment in Singapore crept up in the third quarter of this year to the highest level since 2009, as more workers were retrenched. At the same time, employment growth shot up to the highest level since 2014.

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SINGAPORE - Core inflation in September eased to 0.7 per cent, the lowest since March 2016 when it fell to 0.6 per cent, according to data released on Wednesday (Oct 23).

Last month's core inflation reading was also slightly down from August's 0.8 per cent, and came on the back of lower services inflation and a larger fall in the cost of electricity and gas, even as the cost of retail goods fell by a smaller amount.

Core inflation excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, which are more affected by government policy and are not considered part of Singaporeans' everyday expenses.

Headline or overall inflation remained the same at 0.5 per cent in September, as accommodation costs fell by a smaller amount, while core and private road transport inflation slowed.

The figures were in line with predictions made by analysts in a Bloomberg poll, who flagged headline inflation at 0.5 per cent and core inflation at 0.8 per cent, the same as the inflation rates in August.

Services inflation eased to 1.4 per cent year on year last month, from 1.7 per cent in August.

This was on the back of a fall in airfares and telecommunications services fees, which more than offset larger increases in recreational and cultural services fees and holiday expenses, noted the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

Food inflation was 1.6 per cent in September, unchanged from the preceding month, as a slower pace of increase in the cost of non-cooked food offset a marginally faster pace of increase in the prices of prepared meals.

The cost of electricity and gas fell by a steeper 8.3 per cent year on year in September, compared with the 7.8 per cent decline in August, mainly due to the dampening effect of the nationwide launch of the Open Electricity Market on electricity prices.

The cost of retail goods also declined, easing 0.8 per cent.

"(This) primarily reflected smaller declines in the prices of clothing and footwear items, medical products and telecommunications equipment," MAS and MTI said.

Private road transport inflation was 0.5 per cent in September, lower than the 0.6 per cent in August. This was due to a larger fall in petrol prices and a smaller increase in Electronic Road Pricing charges, which collectively outweighed a faster pace of increase in car prices, MAS and MTI noted.

Accommodation costs dipped by 0.5 per cent, moderating from the 0.7 per cent drop in August, as housing rentals declined more gradually.

MAS earlier this month lowered slightly the Singdollar appreciation rate and also narrowed downwards its inflation forecasts. Noting that core inflation had come in lower than anticipated in recent months and will remain subdued in the year ahead, it forecast core inflation to come in at the lower end of the 1 to 2 per cent forecast range for 2019, and average 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2020.

It also narrowed its projection for 2019 headline inflation to 0.5 per cent, from the previous forecast range of 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. For 2020, it said headline inflation is expected to average 0.5 to 1.5 per cent.

On Wednesday, MAS and MTI kept to those forecasts, saying that in the quarters ahead, external sources of inflation are likely to remain benign, amid weak demand conditions and generally well-supplied food and oil commodity markets. However, they noted that oil prices could be volatile in the near term, reflecting geopolitical risks.

"On the domestic front, labour market conditions are softening slightly. This would lower wage growth in 2019 and 2020, compared with last year. At the same time, non-labour costs such as retail rents should stay subdued, and any cost pass-through to consumers would be constrained by the weaker economic environment," they added.

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Singapore core inflation eases to 0.7% in September, the lowest in over three years

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SINGAPORE - Core inflation in September eased to 0.7 per cent, the lowest since March 2016 when it fell to 0.6 per cent, according to data released on Wednesday (Oct 23).