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2016 Florida Presidential Election Results (District 26)

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2016 Florida Presidential Election Results (District 26)

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Hillary Clinton(57%)
Donald Trump(41%)

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Southern Miami

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Key West

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68.5% Latino/Hispanic, 19.6% White, 9.9% African American

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52% voter turnout in 2016 Midterm

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Income per capita: $22,542 (18th out of 27 districts in Florida)

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Residents 65 or older: 14.7% (18th out of 27 districts in Florida)

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Requires a photo ID before voting, allows online registration, and does not allow same-day registration

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Debbie Mucarsel-Powell(63.4%)  Demetries Grimes(36.6%)

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Carlos Curbelo(84%)
Souraya Faas(16%)

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-First generation American, born in Ecuador
-Worked with multiple non-profit organization such as the Hope Center to provide affordable health care after receiving a degree in medicine from Florida International University
-No prior experience as a politician

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Economic Policy-Raise minimum wage, redistribute wealth to hard-working families, raise taxes for the rich
Health Care-Everyone should have the right to quality health care, lower prescription drug costs, protect pre-existing conditions, in support of ACA

Immigration-Providing asylum to incoming refugees, lessening restriction on immigration to connect families to one another
Gun Policy-ban assault rifles, require universal background checks, pass “common sense” gun reform to restrict firearm use

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-Has been the representative of Florida's 26th district since 2014 and is defending his position as the incumbent candidate in 2018
-Has run non-profit basketball leagues and elected to the Miami Dade County School Board to improve the quality of education for students and teachers

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Economic Policy-Lower tax rates to support growing businesses and facilitate job creation, provide tax credit to working families with low wages
Health Care-Decrease spending on health care, prevent hospitals from profiting off middle class Americans, repeal ACA
Immigration-Secure borders to prevent illegal immigration, illegal immigrants that are children must be granted citizenship, establish a clear path to legalization of current inhabitants who have contributed to the economy and abide by the law
Gun Policy-Protect the constitutional right of carrying a firearm for individual safety, but strengthen background checks

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Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: We Are One South Florida

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This poll shows percentages of voters in favor of Debbie (45%), Curbelo (44%), and undecided voters (11%). The margin of error of this poll is 4.9 percentage points. It may be inaccurate do the very low sample size of only 499 responses from the district. However, it correctly depicts the toss-up of this race.

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This poll shows percentages of votes in favor of Mucrasel-Powell (45%), Curbelo (46%), and undecided voters (9%). Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy only interviewed people that were “likely to vote”, and out of that, the sample size was 625 people. This indicates that the poll may not be entirely accurate, as some people that were interviewed may not have voted.  Also, the margin for error may be increased due to the small number of people who reported their political opinions.

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This poll shows percentages in favor of Mucarsel-Powell (49%), Curbelo (48%), and undecided voters (3%). The margin of error of this poll is 4.9 percentage points. Only 500 likely voters were surveyed. A bigger sample would allow a more accurate poll, so this information may not be entirely true. Furthermore, this poll is posted on Debbie Mucarsel-Powell's website, so it may be biased in her direction.

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-Emily’s List - $82,174 - Washington D.C.
-DE Shaw and Co - $18,900 - New York City, NY

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-NextEra Energy - $34,200 - In state
-KKR and Co - $32,900 - New York City, NY

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Curbelo is endorsed by the Republican Main Street Partnership. This gives him more publicity and gives Republicans an incentive to go to the polls and vote.

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Carlos Curbelo is a very moderate Republican. Overall, he believes in protecting gun rights, securing borders, and reducing tax rates. However, he shares some ideas with Democrats, such as strengthening background checks for purchasing guns and allowing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

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Former President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have endorsed Debbie. This makes people more aware of her and Obama voters are more likely to vote for Mucarsel-Powell.

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Debbie Mucarsel-Powell thoroughly represents the democratic ideals as she believes in tightening gun regulations, raising taxes to support the working class, and providing asylum for immigrants of all races. She is also an advocate for women's rights and the LGBT community.

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Full Bibliography

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Florida Department of State, dos.myflorida.com/.

Campaign Finance Database - Fund Transfers - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State, dos.elections.myflorida.com/campaign-finance/transfers/.

Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., www.britannica.com/search?query=midterm.

“26th Congressional District, Florida Demographics.” 26th Congressional District, Florida Demographics - Income, Housing, Race, Business, www.biggestuscities.com/demographics/fl/26th-congressional-district.

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

“Florida's 26th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Florida's_26th_Congressional_District.

Group, Bolt Media. “Carlos Curbelo for Congress.” YouTube, YouTube, 6 Nov. 2014, www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZx0dZsNcE.

“Guide to the Midterm: Florida's 26th Congressional District.” WPLG, 3 Nov. 2018, www.local10.com/this-week-in-south-florida/guide-to-the-midterm-florida-s-26th-congressional-district.

Left, Swing. “What's Your Closest Swing District?” Swing Left, swingleft.org/district/FL-26.

Litz, Steve. “Curbelo's No Fan of Trump. Will That Be Enough to Outrun His Votes on Health Care and Taxes?” NBC 6 South Florida, NBC 6 South Florida, 1 Nov. 2018, www.nbcmiami.com/news/national-international/Florida-26-Curbelo-Mucarsel-Powell-Race-498573731.html.

“The Meaning of the Midterms: Who Counted? Who Voted?” Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University, 15 Oct. 2018, www.radcliffe.harvard.edu/event/2018-midterm-elections-panel-discussion.

“Midterm Election Poll: Florida's 26th District, Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-fl26-3.html.

Mucarsel-Powell, Debbie. “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: We Are One South Florida.” YouTube, YouTube, 7 Aug. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=H42Eq99vRI4.

Mucarsel-Powell, Debbie. “Home.” Debbie Mucarsel Powell, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Https://Debbiemucarselpowell.com/Wp-Content/Uploads/2017/07/MucarselPowell_Web_Logo.Png, 30 Oct. 2018, debbiemucarselpowell.com/.

NateSilver538. “Florida 26th - 2018 House Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/florida/26/#deluxe.

Nicol, Ryan, and Peter Schorsch. “Florida's 26th Congressional District Archives.” Florida Politics, 31 Oct. 2018, floridapolitics.com/archives/tag/floridas-26th-congressional-district.

North, Anna. “What Women's Early Voting Numbers Tell Us - and What They Don't.” Vox, Vox, 31 Oct. 2018, www.vox.com/2018/10/31/18048600/midterm-elections-2018-early-voting-texas-georgia.

“Party Platform.” Democrats, democrats.org/about/party-platform/.

Pathé, Simone. “Mucarsel-Powell Narrowly Leads Curbelo in DCCC Poll of Florida's 26th District.” Roll Call, 5 Oct. 2018, www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district.

“Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Florida 26th District - Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/fl/florida_26th_district_curbelo_vs_mucarselpowell-6378.html.

Prang, Allison, and Akane Otani. “Midterms Are a Boon for Stocks-No Matter Who Wins.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones &amp; Company, 4 Oct. 2018, www.wsj.com/articles/midterms-are-a-boon-for-stocksno-matter-who-wins-1538645400.

“Republican National Committee.” GOP, gop.com/platform/.

“U.S. Representative, District 26.” Florida Keys Weekly Newspapers, 23 Aug. 2018, keysweekly.com/42/u-s-representative-district-26/.

“United States Congressman Carlos Curbelo Proudly Serving Florida's 26th District.” United States Congress, curbelo.house.gov/.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/.

“You'll Want to Check Out This New Prediction Tool Before the Midterm Elections.” UVA Today, 28 Aug. 2018, news.virginia.edu/content/youll-want-check-out-new-prediction-tool-midterm-elections.

Zurcher, Anthony. “US Mid-Terms: Will It Be a Good Night for Democrats?” BBC News, BBC, 2 Nov. 2018, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45013748.

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Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will defeat Republican Carlos Curbelo and earn the congressional spot for Florida's 26th district.

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-This district voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election (57%). This portrays the 26th district's approval of a woman as a candidate, and Mucarsel-Powell is in line with Clinton's ideals.
-The 26th district has a lower income per capita compared to most districts in Florida. Lower income areas usually vote Democrat, which favors Mucarsel-Powell. Additionally, this district has fewer residents older than 65 compared to most districts in Florida. These older people tend to vote Republican, so the younger and more Democratic population will overwhelm them.

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On the other hand, Carlos Curbelo has been a representative in congress since 2014 and currently holds Florida's 26th district's house seat. Due to having more political experience and being the incumbent, Carlos can more easily generate campaign funds and support. This increased publicity over his competitor will give him an advantage in winning the race.

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However, the combination of disapproval for Trump and being a younger and low income area will tilt Florida's 26th district toward the Democratic candidate.