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Online Blog: Billions Dead: That's What Could Happen if India and Pakistan Wage a Nuclear War

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Online Blog: Billions Dead: That's What Could Happen if India and Pakistan Wage a Nuclear War

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As mainstream media continued to promote hatred between the two countries, blogs appeared to be the saner source of news. This blog by Zachary Keck rightly explains what the outcome will be if the two nuclear armed countries go to war.
Indian subcontinent is home to around 1.7 billion people which is 1/5th of the world population. A nuclear war between two countries could be potentially catastrophic and would wipe out 1/5th of the world population. It may bring irreversible changes to the climate and the flora&fauna indigenous to the area. Also key to the nuclear dimension of the conflict is the fact that India’s conventional capabilities are vastly superior to Pakistan’s. Consequently, Islamabad has adopted a nuclear doctrine of using tactical nuclear weapons against Indian forces to offset the latter’s conventional superiority.
Blogs like this help to show the outcome of a lethal situation when the mainstream media fails.

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Armed with what they believe is reasonable intelligence about the locations of Pakistan's strategic forces, highly accurate missiles and MIRVs to target them, and a missile defense that has a shot at cleaning up any Pakistani missiles that survived the first strike, Indian leaders might be tempted to launch a counterforce first strike.

With the world's attention firmly fixated on North Korea, the greatest possibility of nuclear war is in fact on the other side of Asia.
(This first appeared back in 2017.)
That place is what could be called the nuclear triangle of Pakistan, India and China. Although Chinese and Indian forces are currently engaged in a standoff, traditionally the most dangerous flashpoint along the triangle has been the Indo-Pakistani border. The two countries fought three major wars before acquiring nuclear weapons, and one minor one afterwards. And this doesn't even include the countless other armed skirmishes and other incidents that are a regular occurrence.

At the heart of this conflict, of course, is the territorial dispute over the northern Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, the latter part of which Pakistan lays claim to. Also key to the nuclear dimension of the conflict is the fact that India's conventional capabilities are vastly superior to Pakistan's. Consequently, Islamabad has adopted a nuclear doctrine of using tactical nuclear weapons against Indian forces to offset the latter's conventional superiority.

If this situation sounds similar, that is because this is the same strategy the U.S.-led NATO forces adopted against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In the face of a numerically superior Soviet military, the United States, starting with the Eisenhower administration, turned to nuclear weapons to defend Western Europe from a Soviet attack. Although nearly every U.S. president, as well as countless European leaders, were uncomfortable with this escalatory strategy, they were unable to escape the military realities undergirding it until at least the Reagan administration.

At an event at the Stimson Center in Washington this week, Feroz Khan, a former brigadier in the Pakistan Army and author of one of the best books on the country's nuclear program, said that Pakistani military leaders explicitly based their nuclear doctrine on NATO's Cold War strategy. But as Vipin Narang, a newly tenured MIT professor who was on the same panel, pointed out, an important difference between NATO and Pakistan's strategies is that the latter has used its nuclear shield as a cover to support countless terrorist attacks inside India. Among the most audacious were the 2001 attacks on India's parliament and the 2008 siege of Mumbai, which killed over 150 people. Had such an attack occurred in the United States, Narang said, America would have ended a nation-state.

The reason why India didn't respond to force, according to Narang, is that-despite its alleged Cold Start doctrine-Indian leaders were unsure exactly where Pakistan's nuclear threshold stood. That is, even if Indian leaders believed they were launching a limited attack, they couldn't be sure that Pakistani leaders wouldn't view it as expansive enough to justify using nuclear weapons. This is no accident: as Khan said, Pakistani leaders intentionally leave their nuclear threshold ambiguous. Nonetheless, there is no guarantee that India's restraint will continue in the future. Indeed, as Michael Krepon quipped, "Miscalculation is South Asia's middle name."

Much of the panel's discussion was focused on technological changes that might exacerbate this already-combustible situation. Narang took the lead in describing how India was acquiring the capabilities to pursue counterforce strikes (i.e., take out Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in a preventive or more likely preemptive strike). These included advances in information, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to be able to track and target Islamabad's strategic forces, as well as a missile-defense system that could take care of any missiles the first strike didn't destroy. He also noted that India is pursuing a number of missile capabilities highly suited for counterforce missions, such as Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles (MARVs) and the highly accurate BrahMos missiles that Dehli developed jointly with Russia. "BrahMos is one hell of a counterforce weapon," even without nuclear warheads, Narang contended.

As Narang himself admitted, there's little reason to believe that India is abandoning its no-first-use nuclear doctrine in favor of a first-strike one. Still, keeping in mind Krepon's point about miscalculation, that doesn't mean that these technological changes don't increase the potential for a nuclear war. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where the two sides stumble into a nuclear war that neither side wants. Perhaps the most plausible scenario would start with a Mumbai-style attack that Indian leaders decide they must respond to. In hopes of keeping the conflict limited to conventional weapons, Delhi might authorize limited punitive raids inside Pakistan, perhaps targeting some of the terrorist camps near the border. These attacks might be misinterpreted by Pakistani leaders, or else unintentionally cross Islamabad's nuclear thresholds. In an attempt to deescalate by escalating, or else to halt what they believe is an Indian invasion, Pakistani leaders could use tactical nuclear weapons against the Indian troops inside Pakistan.

With nuclear weapons introduced, Delhi's no-first-use doctrine no longer applies. Indian leaders, knowing they'd face incredible domestic pressure to respond, would also have no guarantee that Pakistani leaders didn't intend to follow the tactical use of nuclear weapons with strategic strikes against Indian cities. Armed with what they believe is reasonable intelligence about the locations of Pakistan's strategic forces, highly accurate missiles and MIRVs to target them, and a missile defense that has a shot at cleaning up any Pakistani missiles that survived the first strike, Indian leaders might be tempted to launch a counterforce first strike. As former Indian National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon wrote in his memoirs (which Narang first drew people's attention to at the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference in March): "India would hardly risk giving Pakistan the chance to carry out a massive nuclear strike after the Indian response to Pakistan using tactical nuclear weapons. In other words, Pakistani tactical nuclear weapon use would effectively free India to undertake a comprehensive first strike against Pakistan."

One factor Indian leaders would be forced to consider is how the other third of Asian nuclear triangle, China, would react. Although the Stimson Center event focused primarily on India and Pakistan, China has always been the primary focus of India's nuclear program. Beijing is also a staunch if informal ally of Pakistan, with a growing economic stake in the country. It is this multipolarity that is the hallmark of the second nuclear age.

Zachary Keck is the former managing editor of the National Interest. You can find him on Twitter: @ZacharyKeck.

Image: Reuters.

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Billions Dead: That's What Could Happen if India and Pakistan Wage a Nuclear War

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Armed with what they believe is reasonable intelligence about the locations of Pakistan's strategic forces, highly accurate missiles and MIRVs to target them, and a missile defense that has a shot at cleaning up any Pakistani missiles that survived the first strike, Indian leaders might be tempted to launch a counterforce first strike.

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Instagram video by Punjabi Singer Ammy Virk

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Instagram video by Punjabi Singer Ammy Virk

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Ammy Virk is a popular Punjabi singer in North India. He was supposed to release a song on the day terrorist attacks occurred. He not only postponed the release of his song, he also decided to donate 1 million rupees to the families of the martyred soldiers.
His post motivated other singers to donate as well and this started a series of events which lead to a total of 500 million rupees to be donated to the bereaved families.
This one of the very few instances that social media was helpful the tense days between the two countries. It also shows the power of Instagram in promoting a positive message.

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76.6k Likes, 816 Comments - Ammy Virk ( ਐਮੀ ਵਿਰਕ ) (@ammyvirk) on Instagram: "🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻RIP OUR HEROS🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 WAHEGURU MEHAR KARE 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻"

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This picture was posted on Instagram by Ravi Singh, CEO of humanitarian organisation Khalsa Aid. Being from the border state of Panjab, Ravi Singh realizes that border states are the first to suffer in case of a war. This post was slap in the face of all the people who were promoting war in the first place.
Instagram is a powerful social media tool to send a moving message. It influences people to a large extent. Ravi Singh's post for instance made a lot of people realize that we should never make decisions based on emotions alone. Logic and humanity should be the driving factors behind any decision.

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#NoToWar #Peace #Diplomacy #Panjab #Humanity

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10.9k Likes, 186 Comments - Ravi Singh (@ravisinghka) on Instagram: "#NoToWar #Peace #Diplomacy #Panjab #Humanity"

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Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site-Online news Reuters.

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Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site-Online news Reuters.

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High-resolution satellite images reviewed by Reuters show that a religious school run by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in northeastern Pakistan appears to be still standing days after India claimed its warplanes had hit the Islamist group’s training camp on the site and killed a large number of militants.

This solidifies the claims of Pakistani media that India conducted air strikes to deviate the public mind from serious issues like poverty and hunger.
Social media acts as a catalyst in spreading fake news. Although it is not proved yet, if the air strikes turn out to be false, it can set a dangerous precedent at how social media can be used to spread fake propaganda.

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NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - High-resolution satellite images reviewed by Reuters show that a religious school run by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in northeastern Pakistan appears to be still standing days after India claimed its warplanes had hit the Islamist group's training camp on the site and killed a large number of militants.

The images produced by Planet Labs Inc, a San Francisco-based private satellite operator, show at least six buildings on the madrasa site on March 4, six days after the airstrike.

Until now, no high-resolution satellite images were publicly available. But the images from Planet Labs, which show details as small as 72 cm (28 inches), offer a clearer look at the structures the Indian government said it attacked.

The image is virtually unchanged from an April 2018 satellite photo of the facility. There are no discernible holes in the roofs of buildings, no signs of scorching, blown-out walls, displaced trees around the madrasa or other signs of an aerial attack.

The images cast further doubt on statements made over the last eight days by the Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the raids, early on Feb. 26, had hit all the intended targets at the madrasa site near Jaba village and the town of Balakot in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

India's foreign and defense ministries did not reply to emailed questions sent in the past few days seeking comment on what is shown in the satellite images and whether they undermine its official statements on the airstrikes.

MISSED THE TARGET?

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, who has 15 years' experience in analyzing satellite images of weapons sites and systems, confirmed that the high-resolution satellite picture showed the structures in question.

"The high-resolution images don't show any evidence of bomb damage," he said. Lewis viewed three other high-resolution Planet Labs pictures of the site taken within hours of the image provided to Reuters.

The Indian government has not publicly disclosed what weapons were used in the strike.

Government sources told Reuters last week that 12 Mirage 2000 jets carrying 1,000 kg (2,200 lbs) bombs carried out the attack. On Tuesday, a defense official said the aircraft used the 2,000-lb Israeli-made SPICE 2000 glide bomb in the strike.

A warhead of that size is meant to destroy hardened targets such as concrete shelters.

Lewis and Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation studies who also analyses satellite images, said weapons that large would have caused obvious damage to the structures visible in the picture.

"If the strike had been successful, given the information we have about what kind of munitions were used, I would expect to see signs that the buildings had been damaged," Lewis added. "I just don't see that here."

Pakistan has disputed India's account, saying the operation was a failure that saw Indian jets, under pressure from Pakistani planes, drop their bombs on a largely empty hillside.

"There has been no damage to any infrastructure or human life as a result of Indian incursion," Major General Asif Ghafoor, the director general of the Pakistan military's press wing, in a statement to Reuters.

"This has been vindicated by both domestic and international media after visiting the site."

BOMB CRATERS

In two visits to the Balakot area in Pakistan by Reuters reporters last Tuesday and Thursday, and extensive interviews with people in the surrounding area, there was no evidence found of a destroyed camp or of anyone being killed. [ here]

Villagers said there had been a series of huge explosions but the bombs appeared to have landed among trees.

On the wooded slopes above Jaba, they pointed to four craters and some splintered pine trees, but noted little other impact from the blasts that jolted them awake about 3 a.m. on Feb. 26.

"It shook everything," said Abdur Rasheed, a van driver who works in the area.

He said there weren't any human casualties: "No one died. Only some pine trees died, they were cut down. A crow also died."

Mohammad Saddique from Jaba Basic Health Unit and Zia Ul Haq, senior medical officer at Tehsil Headquarters Hospital in Balakot said they had seen no casualties.

POLITICAL FIRE

India must hold a general election by May, and pollsters say Modi and his Hindu nationalist party stand to benefit from his aggressive response to a suicide bomb attack that killed 40 Indian paramilitary police in the disputed Kashmir region on Feb. 14.

India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said on the day of the strike that "a very large number of Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists, trainers, senior commanders, and groups of jihadis who were being trained for Fidayeen action were eliminated" in the attack. Fidayeen is a term used to describe Islamist militants on suicide missions.

Another senior government official told reporters on the same day that about 300 militants had been killed. On Sunday the president of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Amit Shah, put the number killed at more than 250.

The Indian government has not produced evidence that a camp was destroyed or that any militants were killed in the raid.

That has prompted some opposition politicians to push for more details.

"We want to know how many people actually died," said Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand chief minister of West Bengal state, in a video published by her All India Trinamool Congress party in a tweet on Feb. 28. "Where did the bombs fall? Did they actually fall in the right place?"

Banerjee, who is seen as a potential prime ministerial candidate, said that she stood behind the Indian Armed Forces, but that they should be given a chance to speak the truth.

"We don't want a war for political reasons, to win an election," she said.

Modi has accused the opposition Congress party, and other opponents such as Banerjee, of helping India's enemies by demanding evidence of the attacks.

"At a time when our army is engaged in crushing terrorism, inside the country and outside, there are some people within the country who are trying to break their morale, which is cheering our enemy," Modi said at an election rally on Sunday.

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Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site

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High-resolution satellite images reviewed by Reuters show that a religious school run by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in northeastern Pakistan appears to be still standing days after India claimed its warplanes had hit the Islamist group's training camp on the site and killed a large number of militants.

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Pakistan releases captured Indian pilot - Flipboard

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Pakistan releases captured Indian pilot - Flipboard

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Pakistan released captured Indian pilot Abhinandan as a peace gesture after tensions escalated between the two countries. Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, downed on Wednesday over Kashmir, crossed into India at the Wagah crossing point, hours later than expected and sporting a black eye.Hashtag #freeabhinandan was viral on Twitter after people demanded that the pilot be released. The capture of pilot may have averted full scale wars between the two countries.
The same people who were talking about starting a war, now demanded peace because pilot Abhinandan added a human face to the tensions between two countries. Its riveting to watch how social media has the power to tip the scales between peace and war.

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Flipboard - Personalized for any interest

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Pakistan using Twitter as an official news source

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Pakistan using Twitter as an official news source

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After Pakistan captured the downed Indian jet fighter, the Information Ministry of Pakistan tweeted a video of the bloodied pilot being interrogated, which is a violation of Geneva Conventions. The video was taken down after India's Foreign Ministry summoned the Ambassador of Pakistan regarding the violation of the treaty. Indian citizens were furious after seeing the video on Twitter with many people demanding war as the only solution if the pilot is not returned. This prompted the government to release statements against Pakistan as the elections for Indian parliament are coming and catering to people's opinion is made a priority near the elections.
This shows that reckless use of social media by government officials can have devastating effects.

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Indian Air Force Wing Commander  Abhinandan Varthaman  In Custody Of Pakistan | Confirm by MEA

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As with any social media, users share and discuss their opinion with other users. The same is true for Reddit. When India retaliated against Pakistan, a user shared the post on Reddit, asking if both the nations are going to declare war on each other. People on both sides of the border started blaming each other for the escalation. Some users gave hypothetical situations of war and who would win the war in case it happens. They are so engaged in social media that they fail to realize the repercussions of promoting hate and shunning peace.
Although there were people who cautioned against speaking inflammatory language, the voice of majority often drowns the minority. Reddit is the perfect example of how social media shapes up people's opinions.

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Read Our Rules | Frequently Asked Questions! | OOTL Primer | GO GATORS!

/r/OutOfTheLoop - Have you ever seen a whole bunch of news stories/reddit posts/videos or anything else about some topic and you had no idea what everyone was going on about? Did you feel out of the loop? This subreddit is dedicated to helping you get up to speed with the recent trends and news.

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Tag spoilers: [This](#s) will become This

Interesting subreddits

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r/OutOfTheLoop - What is going on along the Indian-Pakistani border? Is India going to war with Pakistan?

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Read Our Rules | Frequently Asked Questions! | OOTL Primer | GO GATORS! /r/OutOfTheLoop - Have you ever seen a whole bunch of news stories/reddit posts/videos or anything else about some topic and you had no idea what everyone was going on about? Did you feel out of the loop?

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This Facebook post depicts the aftermath of terrorist attack on the Indian army. Facebook is a powerful social media tool and any video shared on it has the potential to snowball and influence millions of people that watch it.
Goons beat up innocent Kashmiri students and posted the video on Facebook as an example of the treatment to be meted out to Kashmiris. Xenophobic comments were hurled against them and they were made to shout slogans to prove their patriotism against their will. Attackers managed to succeed in their intentions of spreading the video. It was widely shared on social media which led to an increase of hate crimes against Kashmiris in the following days.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eZqXQhVlXY
This video in the link above is a video from a Pakistani news channel debunking the Indian air strikes by citing various social media sources like Twitter instead of on-field reporting. This goes to show that media outlets are resorting to use social media as a valid source of information.
The video below shows an Indian reporter debunking the Pakistani claim that an Indian jet was shot down in Pakistan. The reporter rests his case on pictures from social media platforms like Twitter and "proves" that Pakistan is spreading misinformation regarding air strikes. Although, after weeks Indian governement admitted that the picture was indeed of an Indian jet.

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#IndiaStrikesBack In desperation, Pakistan resorts to fake news peddling. Live updates here!

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https://twitter.com/officialdgispr/status/1100207947022565377?lang=en
The link above is a tweet from Pakistani Major General completely disproving the Indian claim to attack the base camp of terrorists.

The tweet below is one of thousands of tweet from Indian nationals posting the video as a valid proof of successful air strike. What followed was one of the most intense Twitter battle for weeks to come. People on both sides of the border blamed each other for the escalation of issues. This led to the simmering of temperatures which prompted both the governments to take action against the other. This issue would not gain the same amount of global media coverage had there been no social media.

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar   #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar   #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes https://t.co/fxOJIyQlgD

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes pic.twitter.com/fxOJIyQlgD
— Abiveer Singh (@Amritsar_IND) March 9, 2019

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar   #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes https://t.co/fxOJIyQlgD

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar   #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes https://t.co/fxOJIyQlgD

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#Pakistan Army violated #ceasefire along the #LoC the #Digwar sector in #JammuandKashmir #Poonch district, Indian Army successfully destroyed a #Pakarmy ammunition dump.heavy shelling in the #LOC #Balnoi #Kashmir #IAF #5Gwar   #NiravModiinLondon #PKMKB #Rafale #Modi #airstrikes

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With India and Pakistan standing on the brink of war last month, several false videos, pictures and messages circulated widely on social media, sparking anger and heightening tension in both countries. Allegedly sponsored by Pakistan, terrorist attacked an Indian military convoy in Kashmir, killing 46 military personnel. In response, India conducted an air strike inside Pakistan, allegedly killing 250 terrorists. An air fight ensued between Pakistani and Indian Air force which led to the capture of an Indian pilot in Pakistan.

This conflict was blown way out of proportion using social media. News outlets as well as the social media acted as the judge, jury and the executioner for the conflict. This case shows us the downside of social media and how it can be used to spread hate and fake news.