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Concept in the natural sciences to explain 'natural' phenomenon

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A 'totalizing' concept in the social sciences

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Resiliency as a 'soft approach' to counter the 'hard' approach of the War on Terror after the attacks of September 11.

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Below are some of the different categories of resiliency - some from the natural and engineering sciences, and some adapted to better address the social sciences.

Engineering

Ecological

Urban

Community

Social

Socio-ecological

Adaptive

Transformative

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Resiliency and Migration and Resettlement

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Resiliency and Migration and Resettlement

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Super-diversity

National and social cohesion

Self-sufficiency

Resiliency in the face of hardship/trauma of displacement/migration

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Resiliency (in all of its forms) always exists in relationship to a threat

Internal and external

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Resiliency and Countering Violent Extremism (CVE)

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Resiliency and Countering Violent Extremism (CVE)

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2016 Global Risks Report

"Resiliency Imperative"

Human Development Report 2021-2022 "Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World

Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

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An approach that mediates "policy and the everyday" (Bassett et. al 2013)

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PREVENT Program in the UK

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We live in a world of worry. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, having driven reversals in human development in almost every country, continues to spin off variants unpredictably. War in Ukraine and elsewhere has created more human suffering. Record-breaking temperatures, fires, storms and floods sound the alarm of planetary systems increasingly out of whack. Together, they are fuelling a cost-of-living crisis felt around the world, painting a picture of uncertain times and unsettled lives.

Uncertainty is not new, but its dimensions are taking ominous new forms today. A new "uncertainty complex" is emerging, never before seen in human history. Constituting it are three volatile and interacting strands: the destabilizing planetary pressures and inequalities of the Anthropocene, the pursuit of sweeping societal transformations to ease those pressures and the widespread and intensifying polarization.

This new uncertainty complex and each new crisis it spawns are impeding human development and unsettling lives the world over. In the wake of the pandemic, and for the first time ever, the global Human Development Index (HDI) value declined-for two years straight. Many countries experienced ongoing declines on the HDI in 2021. Even before the pandemic, feelings of insecurity were on the rise nearly everywhere. Many people feel alienated from their political systems, and in another reversal, democratic backsliding has worsened.

There is peril in new uncertainties, in the insecurity, polarization and demagoguery that grip many countries. But there is promise, too-an opportunity to reimagine our futures, to renew and adapt our institutions and to craft new stories about who we are and what we value. This is the hopeful path forward, the path to follow if we wish to thrive in a world in flux.

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The 2021/2022 Human Development Report unites and extends discussions from the 2019 and 2020 HDR's and the 2022 Special Report on Human Security, under the theme of uncertainty-how it is changing, what it means for human development and how we can thrive in the face of it.

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WELCOME TO GLOBAL TRENDS 2040

Welcome to the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.

Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This edition of Global Trends constructs its analysis of the future in several stages. First, we examine structural forces in demographics, environment, economics, and technology that shape the contours of our future world. Second, we analyze how these structural forces and other factors-combined with human responses-affect emerging dynamics in societies, states, and the international system. Third, we envision five plausible scenarios for the distant future in 2040. The key themes discussed above appear across these sections.
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THE COVID FACTOR: EXPANDING UNCERTAINTY

The COVID-19 pandemic emerged globally in 2020, wreaking havoc across the world, killing more than 2.5 million people as of early 2021, devastating families and communities, and disrupting economies and political dynamics within and between countries. Previous Global Trends editions forecasted the potential for new diseases and even imagined scenarios with a pandemic, but we lacked a full picture of the breadth and depth of its disruptive potential. COVID-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics, and technology.
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STRUCTURAL FORCES

Exploring conditions and trends that are somewhat knowable or forecastable with data because of existing conditions or patterns

EMERGING DYNAMICS

Exploring the developing trend lines and uncertainties at three levels of analysis

STRATEGIC FUTURES GROUP ON THE SCENARIOS FOR 2040

In the latest edition of the Global Trends report, the National Intelligence Council detailed five potential scenarios for how the world will look in 20 years. Learn more about the report from the Director of the NIC's Strategic Futures Group, Maria Langan-Riekhof.

Read more... | More videos from ODNI...

SCENARIOS FOR 2040

Renaissance of Democracies
In 2040, the world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transforming the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe.

A World Adrift
In 2040, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules and institutions are largely ignored by major powers such as China, regional players, and nonstate actors. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are plagued by slower economic growth, widening societal divisions, and political paralysis.

Competitive Coexistence
In 2040, the US and China have prioritized economic growth and restored a robust trading relationship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage.

Separate Silos
In 2040, the world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and a few regional powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense.

Tragedy and Mobilization
In 2040, a global coalition, led by the European Union and China working with nongovernmental organizations and revitalized multilateral institutions, is implementing far-reaching changes designed to address climate change, resource depletion, and poverty following a global food catastrophe caused by climate events and environmental degradation.

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Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends

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Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends

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How can we overcome the most likely risks of 2016?

Will the world act in time or be trampled by the biggest, most likely dangers identified in the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2016? Are we denying or dealing with climate chang...

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Will the world act in time or be trampled by the biggest, most likely dangers identified in the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2016? Are we denying or dealing with climate chang...

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The government-led, multi-agency Prevent programme aims to stop individuals becoming terrorists and police play a key role. Find out more here.